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AlphaClone's 2011 Year-end Commentary

AlphaClone's 2011 Year-end Commentary

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Published by Absolute Return

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Published by: Absolute Return on Jan 11, 2012
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03/29/2015

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Nwr Anezlaxlneq Xgqxgh
?6== \gmr Geh _gzlgp 
Lj me|xble` ?6== vrnzlhgh m kmrcgx gezlrnekgexxbmx qxrgewnwqd| xgqxgh nwr anezlaxlneq ne onxbxbg dne` meh qbnrx qlhgq% Xbg |gmr qmp xbgkmrcgx xrmzgrqg xbrgg vbmqgq% Xbg jlrqx jlzgknexbq nj xbg |gmr "Vbmqg =, qmp m qwqxmleghkmrcgx rmdd| hgqvlxg vdgex| nj bgmhdleg rlqc leadwhle` xbg Mrmo Qvrle` rgzndwxlneq meh xbghgzmqxmxle` Imvmegqg gmrxb}wmcg.xqwemkl%Hwrle` xbg klhhdg xpn knexbq nj xbg |gmr"Vbmqg ?,$ xbg kmrcgx xrmhgh qlhgpm|q mq xbgqxnrk adnwhq `mxbgrgh nzgr Gwrnvg "@rggaghgjmwdx rlqc, meh WQ vndlxlamd prme`dle` vwx xbghgox agldle` hgomxg le qxmrc jnawq jnr xbgkmrcgxq% Xbg kmrcgx jlemdd| amvlxwdmxgh hwrle` Mw`wqx le xbg pmcg nj m WQ arghlx rmxle`hnpe`rmhg meh mq jgmrq nj anexm`lne marnqqGwrnvg hnklemxgh lezgqxnrq' vq|abg% Xbgamvlxwdmxlne le Mw`wqx qgx njj zgr| bl`b zndmxldlx| meh m rnddgr+anmqxgr rlhg xbmx pg km| qxldd ogrlhle` xnhm| "Vbmqg 1,%Dnncle` omac$ nwr qxrmxg`lgq nwxvgrjnrkgh xbglr ogeabkmrc o| m plhg kmr`le xbrnw`bnwx Vbmqgq= meh ? "qgg Xmodg =,%Xmodg =9 Egx _gxwreq "Iwd| ?6==,Xbg qbmrv kmrcgx anrrgaxlne le Mw`wqx jlemdd| vwddgh xbg Q*V766 ogdnp lxq ?66 knzle` mzgrm`gmdxbnw`b m qxrne` dmxg knexb rmdd| kgmex xbgQ*V766 pmq ned| hnpe 7%8 jnr xbg knexb "lx pmq hnpe mq kwab mq =8 hwrle` xbg knexb,%Egzgr xbg dgqq$ xbg lehg hlh adnqg ogdnp lxqmzgrm`g mx xbg geh nj xbg knexb meh xbwq nwrh|emkla bgh`g kgabmelqk pmq xrl``grgh ne Mw`wqx 16
xb
% O| xbg geh nj xbg knexb$ nwrqxrmxg`lgq mdd nj pblab pgrg rweele` dne` ned| wvxn xbmx vnlex bmh `lzge wv xbglr `mleq jnr xbg |gmr owx knqx pgrg qxldd mbgmh nj xbglr ogeabkmrcq"qgg Xmodg ?,% Xbg ogqx vgrjnrkle` qxrmxg`| jnrxbg knexb pmq nwr GXJ Lhgmq qxrmxg`| pblab plxb m bl`b mddnamxlne xn `ndh meh `ndh klegrq
Vm`g = nj 8 MdvbmAdneg DDA t "8=7, ?<1+2122 t = Kmrcgx Qx%$ Qvgmr Xnpgr 1:
xb
Jdnnr t Qme Jrmealqan$ AM <8=67
]= t ?6=?
 
bgdvgh awqblne xbg qxrmxg`| mq lezgqxnrq qnw`bxrgjw`g le xbg vrgalnwq kgxmd%Xmodg ? Egx _gxwreq "Mw` ?6==,Qgvxgkogr qmp xbg Q*V766 dnqg menxbgr 0 meh o| xbg geh nj xbg knexb xbg lehg "plxbhlzlhgehq, pmq hnpe egmrd| < ne xbg |gmr pbldg xbg _wqqgdd ?666 meh OE\ MH_ Ankvnqlxglehggq pgrg hnpe m vmlejwd =8%: meh =<%<rgqvgaxlzgd|% Xbg jmax pg gexgrgh xbg knexbbgh`gh ne nwr h|emklamdd| bgh`gh qxrmxg`lgqvmlh hlzlhgehq mq gmab qmp ql`eljlamexd| dnpgrdnqqgq jnr xbg knexb xbme xbglr rgqvgaxlzg ogeabkmrcq "qgg Xmodg 1,%Xmodg 1 Egx _gxwreq "Qgvx ?6==,Le kme| pm|q Naxnogr vdm|gh XBG vlznxmd rndgjnr xbg |gmr nzgrmdd% Hwrle` xbg knexb xbgQ*V766 blx lxq |gmrd| dnp "hnpe =?%: ne xbg |gmr, owx leqxgmh nj jwrxbgr amvlxwdmxlne pnrdhkmrcgxq amkg rnmrle` omac% Xbg Q*V766jlelqbgh xbg knexb wv egmrd| == jnr xbg knexb pbldg xbg _wqqgdd ?666 rgxwregh m qvgaxmawdmr=2%? jnr xbg knexb% O| me| kgmqwrg$ Naxnogr'qrmdd| pmq lkvrgqqlzg% Hrlzge m`mle dmr`gd| o| "xblq xlkg, vnqlxlzg bgmhdlegq nwx nj Gwrnvgkmrcgxq zlrxwmdd| grmqgh xbglr dnqqgq jnr xbg |gmr%Xbg knexb pmq mdqn arlxlamd jnr nwr qxrmxg`lgq lexbmx xbnqg xbmx pgrg bgh`gh dmr`gd| klqqgh xbgknexb'q rmdd| pbldg xbnqg xbmx pgrg dne` ned|  ogegjlxgh le qvmhgq% Nwr Maxlzlqx Kmqxgrqqxrmxg`| rgxwregh =: jnr xbg knexb vwqble` lxq |gmr xn hmxg vgrjnrkmeag xn 0 o| xbg geh nj xbgknexb% Le anexrmqx nwr MdvbmAdneg Qgdgaxqxrmxg`|$ ogle` bgh`gh$ rgxwregh =%? jnr xbgknexb% "qgg Xmodg 8,Xmodg 8 Egx _gxwreq "Nax ?6==,Ankvmrle` nwr bgh`gh qxrmxg`lgq plxb m dne`ned| lehg mx xbg geh nj Naxnogr lq menvvnrxwelx| xn rgkleh nwrqgdzgq nj xbg ino nwrh|emkla bgh`g lq kgmex xn vgrjnrk ‑ m, vrnxgaxm`mleqx dmr`g kwdxl+knexb hrmphnpeq "5?7,meh o, rghwag zndmxldlx| hwrle` xlkgq pbgeg}wlxlgq mrg bl`bd| anrrgdmxgh meh xbg kmrcgxhngqe'x amrg monwx rgdmxlzg qxnac zmdwgq% O| xbmxkgmqwrg$ nwr h|emkla bgh`g pnrcgh jdmpdgqqd| meh le dleg plxb blqxnrlamd omacxgqxq ‑ m dnqq lexbg knexb vrlnr xn gexgrle` xbg bgh`g jnddnpgh o| kwab dnpgr nzgrmdd zndmxldlx| meh `nnhhnpeqlhg vrnxgaxlne le qwoqg}wgex knexbq%Le anexgx xbge$ xbg klqqgh rmdd| le Naxnogr pmqqlkvd| xbg vrlag vmlh jnr dnpgr zndmxldlx| "bmdj mq zndmxldg mq xbg nzgrmdd kmrcgx hwrle` bgh`ghknexbq, meh hnpeqlhg vrnxgaxlne "lx anwdh bmzg ogge kwab pnrqg, le me gxrgkgd| ilxxgr| kmarngezlrnekgex% Lx ogmrq rgklehle` xbmx nwrh|emkla bgh`g lq qxldd le gjjgax xnhm| meh pbldg pg km| qgg me glx mx xbg geh nj xblq knexb$ enrmxlnemd memd|qlq pnwdh vwx wq nwx nj xbg pnnhq |gx%
Vm`g ? nj 8 MdvbmAdneg DDA t "8=7, ?<1+2122 t = Kmrcgx Qx%$ Qvgmr Xnpgr 1:
xb
Jdnnr t Qme Jrmealqan$ AM <8=67
]= t ?6=?
 
Le xbg jlemd memd|qlq$ nwr bgh`gh qxrmxg`lgq gehghxbg |gmr ne vmr plxb xbg HI Arghlx Qwlqqg AnrgG}wlx| Dne`.Qbnrx lehg "qgg Xmodg 7,% Ne xbgdne` ned| qlhg$ nwr Maxlzlqx Kmqxgrq qxrmxg`| rgxwregh 0%8 jnr xbg |gmr pbldg nwr ZmdwgKmqxgrq qxrmxg`| pmq hnpe ?%0 ne xbg |gmr% Hgagkogr anrrgaxlne le `ndh vrlagq vwqbgh nwrGXJ Lhgmq qxrmxg`| hnpe :%: jnr xbg knexb xngeh xbg |gmr hnpe 0% Mjxgr m |gmr xbmx xbrgp gzgr|xble` owx xbgclxabge qlec mx wq$ omqgh ne nwr vgrjnrkmeag$ Lmk knrg anejlhgex le nwr mvvrnmab xbme L bmzggzgr ogge% Pbldg xbg anezgexlnemd plqhnk lqxbmx —xmld rlqc‛ lq dnpgr le ?6=?$ lx bmq agrxmled| enx hlqmvvgmrgh meh pg rgkmle qwqagvxlodg xn—mlr vnacgxq‛% Pbmxgzgr xbg kmrcgxq pldd orle`le xbg egp |gmr$ km| |nwrq og bgmdxb| mehjwdjlddle`%Xmodg 7 Egx _gxwreq "Hga ?6==,
LKVN_XMEX HLQADNQW_GQ JN_ MAXWMD VG_JN_KMEAG _GQWDXQ Maxwmd vgrjnrkmeag jl`wrgq mrg wemwhlxgh gqxlkmxgq `gegrmxgh o| MdvbmAdneg$ DDA$ meh mrg qwoigax xn knhljlamxlne%Vgrjnrkmeag lq le W%Q% hnddmrq$ leadwhgq xbg rglezgqxkgex nj hlzlhgehq meh lq egx nj xrmhle` gvgeqgq meh kmem`gkgex jggq"=%7 vgr |gmr ankolegh,% Vmqx vgrjnrkmeag lq enx m `wmrmexgg nj jwxwrg rgxwreq% MdvbmAdneg Anrg Qxrmxg`lgq qggc amvlxmdmvvrgalmxlne mq xbglr lezgqxkgex noigaxlzg% Xblq ankkwelamxlne hngq enx aneqxlxwxg me njjgr nr m qndlalxmxlne xn lezgqx plxb MdvbmAdneg$ DDA% Lehg ankvmrlqne rgxwreq mrg qbnpe plxb hlzlhgehq rglezgqxgh pgrg mzmldmodg% )) Lehlamxgq qxrmxg`| lq rlqc kmem`gh%LKVN_XMEX HLQADNQW_GQ JN_ OMACXGQX VG_JN_KMEAG _GQWDXQOmacxgqxle` lq xbg vrnagqq nj gzmdwmxle` m anrg qxrmxg`| o| mvvd|le` lx xn blqxnrlamd hmxm% Omacxgqxgh vgrjnrkmeag rgqwdxq mrgvrnzlhgh jnr vwrvnqgq nj lddwqxrmxle` blqxnrlamd vgrjnrkmeag bmh m anrg qxrmxg`| bmh ogge mzmldmodg hwrle` xbg rgdgzmex vgrlnh%Omacxgqxgh vgrjnrkmeag rgqwdxq mrg b|vnxbgxlamd meh bmzg lebgrgex dlklxmxlneq% MdvbmAdneg kmcgq en rgvrgqgexmxlne xbmx me| anrg qxrmxg`| pldd mablgzg vgrjnrkmeag qlkldmr xn me| omacxgqxgh vgrjnrkmeag rgqwdxq% Maxwmd rgqwdxq anwdh hljjgr kmxgrlmdd| jrnk omacxgqxgh vgrjnrkmeag meh jwxwrg rgqwdxq anwdh hljjgr kmxgrlmdd| jrnk omacxgqxgh vgrjnrkmeag% Vmqx vgrjnrkmeag lq enlehlamxlne nr `wmrmexgg nj jwxwrg rgqwdxq%Omacxgqxgh vgrjnrkmeag rgqwdxq9 "l, hn enx rgjdgax xbg hghwaxlne nj me| kmem`gkgex jggq nr xrmhle` ankklqqlneq3 "ll, mrg enx omqgh ne maxwmd xrmhle` meh hn enx rgjdgax me| kmrcgx lkvmax nj ow|le` meh qgddle` qgawrlxlgq$ xrmhg xlkle` meh qgawrlx| Vm`g 1 nj 8 MdvbmAdneg DDA t "8=7, ?<1+2122 t = Kmrcgx Qx%$ Qvgmr Xnpgr 1:
xb
Jdnnr t Qme Jrmealqan$ AM <8=67
]= t ?6=?

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