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Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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Yasser Al-Saleh, Paul Upham and Khaleel Malik


Tyndall Centre Working Paper 125, Otober 2008

Summary:

A widespread enthusiasm has been growing with regard to the transition towards more sustainable systems of production and consumption in order to meet today’s needs without compromising those of future generations. Renewable energy technologies, in particular, are becoming internationally recognised as a vital contribution towards a sustainable energy future. This paper presents a set of renewable energy scenarios for the currently oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technqiue, and represent a joint creation of thirty-five highly informed individuals from diverse backgrounds.
Yasser Al-Saleh, Paul Upham and Khaleel Malik


Tyndall Centre Working Paper 125, Otober 2008

Summary:

A widespread enthusiasm has been growing with regard to the transition towards more sustainable systems of production and consumption in order to meet today’s needs without compromising those of future generations. Renewable energy technologies, in particular, are becoming internationally recognised as a vital contribution towards a sustainable energy future. This paper presents a set of renewable energy scenarios for the currently oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technqiue, and represent a joint creation of thirty-five highly informed individuals from diverse backgrounds.

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Published by: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research on Nov 07, 2008
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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Renewable Energy Scenariosfor the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
 
Yasser Al-
S
aleh
,
Paul Upham
 
and Khaleel Malik
October
 
200
8
 
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Working Paper
1
2
5
 
Renewable Energy Scenarios for the Kingdom of Saudi ArabiaAuthors:
Al-Saleh, Y.M.
a*
, Upham, P.
a, b
and Malik, K.
a
 
a
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK
b
Tyndall Centre Manchester, University of Manchester, UK*Corresponding Author:Yasser M. Al-Saleh. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research,University of Manchester, United Kingdom, M15 6PBTel.: + 44 161 306 1320.
 E-mail address:
 AlSaleh.Yasser@Gmail.com 
Tyndall Working Paper 125, October 2008
Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress".Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have notbeen subject to a ‘full’ peer review. The accuracy of this work and theconclusions reached are the responsibility of the author(s) alone andnot the Tyndall Centre.
Abstract
A widespread enthusiasm has been growing with regard to the transition towards moresustainable systems of production and consumption in order to meet today’s needs withoutcompromising those of future generations. Renewable energy technologies, in particular, arebecoming internationally recognised as a vital contribution towards a sustainable energy future.This paper presents a set of renewable energy scenarios for the currently oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technqiue, and represent a joint creation of thirty-five highly informed individuals from diverse backgrounds.
Keywords
Foresight Scenarios, Delphi Technique, Renewables, Sustainable Energy Policy, Saudi Arabia.
 
Contents
1. Introduction 12. What are Scenarios? 23. An Overview of the Delphi Approach 44. Delphi Study Design 55. Developing the Scenarios Framework 7
5.1 Availability of Fossil Fuels 95.2 Action on Environmental Protection 105.3 Perception of Renewables 115.3.1 Positive Perception of Renewables 115.3.2 Negative Perception of Renewables 115.4 Choice of Renewable Energy Technologies 125.5 Scenarios as Caricatures 12
6. Common Assumptions for all Scenarios 14
6.1 Population of Saudi Arabia 156.2 Required Future Power Capacity in Saudi Arabia 166.3 Pace of Technological Change 226.4 Other Issues 23
7. Scenarios Narratives 24
7.1 Blue Scenarios 247.2 Yellow Scenarios 257.3 Red Scenarios 267.4 Green Scenarios 26
8. Quantitative Implications 279. Concluding Remarks 3010. References 32Appendix A:
Study Contributors 42
 Appendix B:
Quantifying the Scenarios 43

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