B2 Global Warming Lecture Notes Recommended Reading:

Global Warming - John Houghton The Feedback Crisis - David Wasdell When Life Nearly Died Contraction & Convergence Aubrey Meyer How We Can Save The Planet Mayer Hillman, Tina Fawcett

1 Concept
Three terms; The Greenhouse Effect, Global Warming and Climate Change are generally used interchangeably. It is useful to look at what they mean, their relationships and their differences.

1.1 Greenhouse Effect

First let us look at an astral body without any atmosphere to speak of. Mars receives incoming heat from the sun. This heats up the planet and it radiates heat back into the cool surrounding space. The hotter it is, the more it radiates. An equilibrium is established as the incoming and outgoing radiation balance each other. Mars maintains a low and steady temperature

The Earth does have an atmosphere. The Greenhouse Effect is the mechanism the Earth employs to keep itself at a steady life supporting temperature. Just like a greenhouse, a layer of atmospheric greenhouse gasses surround the planet, allowing the suns shortwave radiation to enter but restricting the long wave heat that the warm planet reradiates. This restriction on the outflow of heat means that the surface of the planet heats up. A hotter planet can radiate more heat and so equilibrium exists between the inflow and outflow of radiation. The planet is at a steady temperature. By introducing large volumes of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere humanity has evoked an Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. The inflow of radiative heat exceeds the outflow of radiative heat. This is called Radiative Forcing. The planet is receiving a net input of heat and we would expect to see rising temperatures.

1.2 Global Warming

Global Warming is the result of radiative forcing and generally refers to changes in the average air temperature at sea level around the world.

1.3 Climate Change

More energy in the earths system means warmer oceans land masses and atmosphere. Changes in energy around the planet logically result in changes to the earths climate. Climate change is something that is experienced locally. The globe may be warming, but

due to changes in rainfall or ocean current movements you might find localised cooling just as much as warming. Weather changes from day to day but the climate is a measure of the overall patterns of weather behaviour around the world. The climate has been changing since the beginning of time. Climate Change becomes a problem (for people) when it happens faster than we or the ecosystem we depend upon cannot keep up with the pace of change.

2 deep history
2.1 carboniferous period
Way back when the earth was young, the atmosphere was thick with carbon dioxide. This intense blanket of greenhouse gas provided perfect growing conditions for plant life, a very warm planet with a high CO2 concentration. Forests grew and died scrubbing the atmosphere of CO2 and laying down huge carbon reserves in the form of oil coal and gas. The atmosphere changed to become much better suited to large oxygen breathing mammals.

2.2 Vostok
We have an almost complete record of this stable atmospheric behaviour over the last 400,000 years. In Vostok, Antarctica scientists have drilled down through three kilometres of ice taking ice core samples. The ice they recover is compacted snow fall over the last 400,000 years. By taking gas samples from the tiny bubbles in the ice, a complete picture of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and of temperature has been constructed.

There are in fact fluctuations within this steady state. These are experienced as ice ages and interglacials. There is a fairly regular, 100,000 year pattern of these and they result from the wobble and eccentricities of the earths axis and orbit around the sun. In periods where the earth is generally further away from the sun, the earth experiences an ice age. In periods where the earth is generally closer to the sun, it experiences an interglacial. These are know as Milankovitch Cycles. The atmospheric CO2 and temperature of the planet are tightly interlinked and not only can CO2 changes lead to temperature changes temperature effects CO2.

3 Recent History
In recent years humanity has been drastically altering the balance of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The earths capacity to capture CO2 has been degraded through deforestation and other changes in land use patterns. Since the beginning industrial revolution, vast stocks of fossil carbon in the form of coal oil and gas have been released into the atmosphere. We would expect to see these emissions manifest in rising concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere and we have.

We would expect this result in rising average global temperatures and to some extent we have. Temperatures have risen by around 0.6oC since pre-industrial times. In Finland, there is an annual competition to correctly guess the exact day on which the River Tornio will first break its ice. This has left us with a 300 year record showing a clear warming trend.

We would expect to see rising temperatures to manifest themselves in climatic changes which we have.

3.1 Masking
However the 0.6oC temperature rise and corresponding climate change that has been observed does not accurately reflect the change in radiative forcing that the planet receives. The true global warming effect has been temporarily masked by a number of factors. Two key ones are discussed here.

3.1.1 Global Dimming

In burning fossil fuels, soot or aerosols are released along with the GHGs. These aerosol particles float around in the atmosphere and change its albedo (reflective ness). Because of this, some sunlight is reflected off the particles, back into space. This effect has been termed global dimming. It reduces the amount of energy entering the earths atmosphere. However as and when fossil fuel combustion is reduced, the aerosols will fall out of the sky. This happens over a matter of weeks or months, while GHGs such as CO2 will remain in the atmosphere for many many years to come. As such the earth will experience an increased input of energy while still maintaining in large portion its greenhouse effect.

3.1.2 Ice Bucket

A second important buffer to temperature change is through the phase change of ice and water on the planet. To break it down into a simple example, imagine a bucket of ice and water. A thermometer sits in the bucket and reads 0oC. A powerful electric heating element is then

submerged in the bucket and pumps heat into the ice water mix, melting the ice. The temperature will continue to read 0oC even as heat is going into the bucket. The reason being that all the heat is being consumed in the process of melting the ice. It takes energy for ice to change phase into water. Once all the ice is melted, the temperature reading will begin to climb. The heat will be directly contributing to a rise in temperature. This will continue until the water reaches 100oC at which point the heat will be required for a second phase change from water into steam. The heating element will continue to pump heat into the water evaporating it until the bucket is dry. The earth contains large reserves of both ice and water. These have been acting as a powerful buffer to absorb the extra heat the earth receives due to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

3.2 Feedbacks
3.2.1 Negative Feedbacks
As well as Global Dimming and the Phase Change Buffer, there are a number of other negative feedback loops that have a cooling effect on the planet.

3.2.2 Positive Feedback

As well as negative feedbacks, there are positive feedback mechanisms which feed on themselves and exacerbate global warming. Albedo Shrinking ice cover, reduces the overall reflectivity of the earth. Less heat is reflected back into space and more is absorbed. Soils Warmer conditions mean that soils hold less carbon Ocean Storage Warmer oceans hold less CO2 in their waters Sinks Sources As the planet warms and rainforests find that they are no longer in the correct climatic conditions, they will die off ending their function in the carbon cycle as a sink and instead become a source of carbon as they burn or rot CO2 into the atmosphere. Tundra Methane Frozen peat bogs hold large volumes of Methane. Methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas with approximately 20 times the warming potential of CO2. As these areas warm up and thaw, the methane can be released. Methyl Hydrates As a result of decomposed biological matter, methane sits at the bottom of oceans in the form of methyl hydrates, a kind of frozen methane. It is held there under conditions of high pressure and low temperature. Warmer oceans can foreclose on these conditions and there is the potential for this GHG to be released in large measures.

3.2.3 Runaway Climate Change

The biggest danger is that the positive feedback mechanisms kick in to an extent that global warming runs away with itself. If this were to happen it would mean that the warming effect of the positive feedback mechanisms had become the dominant driver and humanity would not be able to stop climate change by simply ceasing to emit greenhouse gasses.

Permian era
There is in fact a precedent for runaway climate change. 250 million years ago during the Permian era, the most severe of the planets six or so great extinctions occurred. Probably as a result of a meteor strike and GHGs being released by the ensuing volcanic activity, the planet did warm up enough to trigger massive releases of methyl hydrates which sent the cumulative temperature rise to around 10oC. The methane spike is clearly recorded in the rocks from that period. The consequence was massive climate change, plant species were not able to migrate fast enough and died off undermining the foundations of the food chain. It is estimated that 90% of species were wiped out.

4 Solutions
See Notes on Contraction & Convergence