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Global Warming - John Houghton The Feedback Crisis - David Wasdell When Life Nearly Died Contraction & Convergence Aubrey Meyer How We Can Save The Planet Mayer Hillman, Tina Fawcett
1 Concept
Three terms; The Greenhouse Effect, Global Warming and Climate Change are generally used interchangeably. It is useful to look at what they mean, their relationships and their differences.
The Earth does have an atmosphere. The Greenhouse Effect is the mechanism the Earth employs to keep itself at a steady life supporting temperature. Just like a greenhouse, a layer of atmospheric greenhouse gasses surround the planet, allowing the suns shortwave radiation to enter but restricting the long wave heat that the warm planet reradiates. This restriction on the outflow of heat means that the surface of the planet heats up. A hotter planet can radiate more heat and so equilibrium exists between the inflow and outflow of radiation. The planet is at a steady temperature. By introducing large volumes of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere humanity has evoked an Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. The inflow of radiative heat exceeds the outflow of radiative heat. This is called Radiative Forcing. The planet is receiving a net input of heat and we would expect to see rising temperatures.
due to changes in rainfall or ocean current movements you might find localised cooling just as much as warming. Weather changes from day to day but the climate is a measure of the overall patterns of weather behaviour around the world. The climate has been changing since the beginning of time. Climate Change becomes a problem (for people) when it happens faster than we or the ecosystem we depend upon cannot keep up with the pace of change.
2 deep history
2.1 carboniferous period
Way back when the earth was young, the atmosphere was thick with carbon dioxide. This intense blanket of greenhouse gas provided perfect growing conditions for plant life, a very warm planet with a high CO2 concentration. Forests grew and died scrubbing the atmosphere of CO2 and laying down huge carbon reserves in the form of oil coal and gas. The atmosphere changed to become much better suited to large oxygen breathing mammals.
2.2 Vostok
We have an almost complete record of this stable atmospheric behaviour over the last 400,000 years. In Vostok, Antarctica scientists have drilled down through three kilometres of ice taking ice core samples. The ice they recover is compacted snow fall over the last 400,000 years. By taking gas samples from the tiny bubbles in the ice, a complete picture of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and of temperature has been constructed.
There are in fact fluctuations within this steady state. These are experienced as ice ages and interglacials. There is a fairly regular, 100,000 year pattern of these and they result from the wobble and eccentricities of the earths axis and orbit around the sun. In periods where the earth is generally further away from the sun, the earth experiences an ice age. In periods where the earth is generally closer to the sun, it experiences an interglacial. These are know as Milankovitch Cycles. The atmospheric CO2 and temperature of the planet are tightly interlinked and not only can CO2 changes lead to temperature changes temperature effects CO2.
3 Recent History
In recent years humanity has been drastically altering the balance of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The earths capacity to capture CO2 has been degraded through deforestation and other changes in land use patterns. Since the beginning industrial revolution, vast stocks of fossil carbon in the form of coal oil and gas have been released into the atmosphere. We would expect to see these emissions manifest in rising concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere and we have.
We would expect this result in rising average global temperatures and to some extent we have. Temperatures have risen by around 0.6oC since pre-industrial times. In Finland, there is an annual competition to correctly guess the exact day on which the River Tornio will first break its ice. This has left us with a 300 year record showing a clear warming trend.
We would expect to see rising temperatures to manifest themselves in climatic changes which we have.
3.1 Masking
However the 0.6oC temperature rise and corresponding climate change that has been observed does not accurately reflect the change in radiative forcing that the planet receives. The true global warming effect has been temporarily masked by a number of factors. Two key ones are discussed here.
submerged in the bucket and pumps heat into the ice water mix, melting the ice. The temperature will continue to read 0oC even as heat is going into the bucket. The reason being that all the heat is being consumed in the process of melting the ice. It takes energy for ice to change phase into water. Once all the ice is melted, the temperature reading will begin to climb. The heat will be directly contributing to a rise in temperature. This will continue until the water reaches 100oC at which point the heat will be required for a second phase change from water into steam. The heating element will continue to pump heat into the water evaporating it until the bucket is dry. The earth contains large reserves of both ice and water. These have been acting as a powerful buffer to absorb the extra heat the earth receives due to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
3.2 Feedbacks
3.2.1 Negative Feedbacks
As well as Global Dimming and the Phase Change Buffer, there are a number of other negative feedback loops that have a cooling effect on the planet.
Permian era
There is in fact a precedent for runaway climate change. 250 million years ago during the Permian era, the most severe of the planets six or so great extinctions occurred. Probably as a result of a meteor strike and GHGs being released by the ensuing volcanic activity, the planet did warm up enough to trigger massive releases of methyl hydrates which sent the cumulative temperature rise to around 10oC. The methane spike is clearly recorded in the rocks from that period. The consequence was massive climate change, plant species were not able to migrate fast enough and died off undermining the foundations of the food chain. It is estimated that 90% of species were wiped out.
4 Solutions
See Notes on Contraction & Convergence