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Reliability CGG1, Weibull, Exponential, Log-Normal Distributions

# Reliability CGG1, Weibull, Exponential, Log-Normal Distributions

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Basic Studies of Exponential, Log-Normal and Weibull Distributions for Reliability, applications with Software RELIAB_EN.exe from site: www.spc-inspector.com/cgg
Basic Studies of Exponential, Log-Normal and Weibull Distributions for Reliability, applications with Software RELIAB_EN.exe from site: www.spc-inspector.com/cgg

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04/17/2013

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1.1.- Exponential Distribution
Exponential distribution figure 1.1 is the most commonly used distribution in reliability, andis generally used to predict the probability of surviving at a (t) time.Figure 1.1 Exponential distribution is the most commonly used in reliability.The probability density function (pdf) of the exponential distribution is:f(t) =
λ
e
-
λ
t
, t
0 or f(t) = (1/
θ
) e
-
λ
t
where t
0MTBF =
θ

λ
= rate of failure = 1/
θ
R(t) = e
-
λ
t
or e
–t/
θ
where t
0F(t) = Unreliability = Failure = 1 R(t)The hazard function for the exponential distribution =
λ
, and is constant throughout the function.Therefore, the exponential distribution should be used for reliability prediction during the rate of constant failure or at random cause of failure or period of operation.Some unique failures to the exponential distribution include:1.- The mathematical mean and standard deviation are equal.2.- Of all the values 63.21% fall below the mean value, which translates into only a 36.79% probability of surviving past the time period of one MTBF.3.- The Reliability R(t) as the time t approaches zero, approaches to one as a limit.Previously we saw, the reliability for a given (t) time during the constant failure rate period can becalculated with the formula:R(t) = e
-
λ
t
1

Where: e = base of the natural logarithms which is 2.718281828...
λ

= failure ratet = time
Example:
The equipment in a manufacturing plant has a failure rate of 0.0015/hr. (MTBF = 1500hr.). What is the probability of operating for a period of 750 hr. without failure?
λ
= 0.000666, t = 750e
-
λ
t
= e
– (0.000666)(750)
= e
– 0.5
= 0.6065A 60.65% of probability of operating for a period of 750 hr. without failure exists when the MTBF= 1500 hr (
λ
= 0.000666).
Note:
MTBF and
λ
do not need to be a function of time in hours. The characteristic of “time” or usage can be such units as cycles instead of hours. In this case, MCBF (Mean Cycles BetweenFailures) could be the appropriate measure.Using the software RELIAB_EN.exe you can get the following result:
Figure 1.2
Results obtained with program RELIAB_EN.exe from

Example:
One cycle of the machine completes the assembly of 20 units. A study of this machine predicted an MCBF of 14,000 cycles (
λ
= 0.00007143/cycle).What is the probability of operating 15,000 cycles without failure? Note:
λ
is also a function of cycles.The reliability for this example can be calculated from either equation noted before.(1).- R(t) = e
–t/
θ
or e
–c/
θ
; where c = cycles,or (2).- R(t) = e
-
λ
t
or e
-
λ
c
For this example the equation (1) will be used.
(15,000)
= e
– 15,000/14000
= e
– 1.0714
= 0.3425A 34.25% probability exists that the machine will run 15,000 cycles without failure.Using software RELIAB_EN.exe we can get:
Figure 1.3
Results obtained with software RELIAB_EN.exe2

An interesting note of prediction during the chance cause failure period is that the probability of functioning for a given time period (t) is totally independent of previous operation. Therefore, aslong as operation remains in the chance cause failure mode, the probability of failure is the sameduring the first 100 hr of operation or for the period of 10,000 hr to 10,100 hr.Fundamentals of reliability statisticsAmong the many reliability statistical applications, there are relatively few mathematicalrelationships that provide a large part of reliability calculations. Some of these include: hazardfunction, survival, series systems, parallel systems, perfect and imperfect switching for standbyredundancy, confidence intervals for MTBF, and others.Although the concepts of reliability theory will not be explored completely, the following definitionof reliability will be used throughout:Reliability: The probability that an item will perform its intended function for a specified intervalunderstated environmental conditions.When making predictions using the exponential distribution, it is imperative that the failure rate inthis period be constant; failures are random in nature. This is also known as the chance cause or useful life period. Other periods of failure are early 0r infant mortality and wearout.
1.2.- Bathtub Curve
Over the life of a complex system, three distinct failure rate phases may become apparent.The first phase or period is referred to as the infant mortality period, which is shown as thedecreasing failure rate on the left portion of figure 1.4. The second phase is the random or constantcause failure period, which is the period of time encompassing the flat portion of the curve, wherethe failure rate remains constant. The last phase is the wearout period, which is shown on the rightside of figure 1.4 as an increasing failure rate. The wearout phase is more predominant inmechanical systems than in electronic system.
Figure 1.4
Reliability bathtub curve showing the infant mortality period as the decreasing failurerate (left), random constant cause failure period (middle), and wearout period as an increasingfailure rate (right).Infant mortality failures are generally the result of manufacturing errors that are not caughtin inspection prior to burn-in or placing in service. Failures resulting from time/stress dependenterrors may occur in this period.3

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