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SprottJanuary-2012

SprottJanuary-2012

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Published by VALUEWALK LLC
eric sprott
eric sprott

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Published by: VALUEWALK LLC on Jan 20, 2012
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01/21/2012

 
0
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O`e}`wy 7;07
Qjm Lie`ehi`n Xyxqmd ix ` L`whm?
[`wq Qjwmm
Gy? Mwih X{wbqq , A`|ia G`cmw
7;00 v`x ` dmwwy$fb$wb}ea b dbwm g`inb}qx. dbwm ammww`nx `ea dbwm amei`n% M|mwybem ix qiwma b qjm M}wbbem%Iq’x ebq z`gnm% Qjmwm’x qbb d}hj amgq% Qjm {bniqihi`ex abe’q cebv vj`q’x fbief be% Ebqjief j`x xqw}hq}w`nny hj`efma%Vm’wm xqinn be qjm vwbef {`qj% Qjmwm’x dbwm fnbg`n amgq qj`e qjmwm v`x ` ym`w `fb. `ea iq’x qjm x`dm bna xbef? mzqmea`ea {wmqmea. mzqmea `ea {wmqmea.… `wb}ea `ea `wb}ea vm fb.… `ea iq ixe’q }e `eydbwm%O}xq `x vm vwbqm g`hc ieBhqbgmw 7;;6.`ea `f`ie ieXm{qmdgmw 7;;:. vm mmn hbd{mnnma qb xq`qm qjm bg|ib}x? qj`q qjm e`ehi`n xyxqmd ix ` `whm% Iq’x ` hbd{nmqm. hyhnih`n `whm qj`q ammx `nn mbwqx qb wifjq iqxmn% Qjix {`xq ym`whbeqie}ma qjm `whih`n qw`aiqibe viqj xbdm ebq`gnm xh`ea`nx. ammww`nx `ea ieqmw|meqibex qj`q }eamwxhbwma qjm xyxqmd’xhbeqie}ief `aaihqibe qb fb|mwedmeq ieqmwmwmehm% Viqj qjm fn`wief mzhm{qibe b ]X Qwm`x}wimx `ea qjm ]X abnn`w *vjihj`wm `adiqqmany qvb b b}w nm`xq `|b}wiqm `xxmq hn`xxmx). iq v`x ebq ` ym`w qj`q wmv`wama xqbhc {ihcief bw x`m$j`|me`xxmqx% D`ey am|mnb{dmeqx a}wief qjm ym`w gbwamwma be qjm wiaih}nb}x. `ea amx{iqm xbdm {bxiqi|m emvx b}q b qjm]X. vm x`v niqqnm qb qmxq b}w gm`wixj |imv% I `eyqjief. b}w |imv v`x hbeqie}`nny wm$`wdma%Nmq’x xq`wq viqj DL Fnbg`n% Viqj dbwm qj`e qvb dbeqjx {`xxma xiehm qjm xh`ea`n gwbcm. mamw`n bhi`nx `wm xqinn}e`gnm qb ea qjm mxqid`qma ]X0%7 ginnibe b dixxief h}xqbdmw }eax%
0
Qjm vjbnm m{ixbam j`x gmme ` aix`xqmwbw qjm HDM. qjm xmn$wmf}n`qbwy gbay ie hj`wfm b d`cief x}wm qjm }q}wmx gwbcmwx {n`y gy qjm w}nmx% Ebwd`nny ieiexq`ehmx b gwbcmw g`ecw}{qhy. qjm HDM ix x}{{bxma qb g`hcxqb{ hnimeq `hhb}eqx `ea cmm{ qjmd nip}ia ‘ i%m%. `nnbvqjmd qb hbeqie}m qw`aief vjinm qjm g`ecw}{qhy fmqx xmqqnma% Iq em|mw j`{{mema ie qjix h`xm% Hnimeq `hhb}eqx vmwmwbme bw vmmcx% L}eax j`|m wmd`iema dixxief bw dbeqjx ‘ `e mqmweiqy bw hnimeqx vjb vmwm h`}fjq xjbwq% Qjmfwm`q xjbhc v`x v`qhjief jbv iem{q `ea ieh`{`gnm qjm HDM v`x ie 0) {wm|meqief qjm w`}a ie qjm wxq {n`hm `ea7) wmhb|mwief hnimeq `xxmqx a}wief qjm `qmwd`qj% Qjm HDM mxxmeqi`nny hb{{ma b}q b qjmiw wmx{bexiginiqy. bmwiefniqqnm dbwm qj`e xbdm {mw}ehqbwy {wmxx wmnm`xmx `nbef qjm v`y% Qjmy vmwm `nxb x}w{wixiefny p}ihc qb bmw mzh}xmxbw qjmiw ebe$`hqibe% @hhbwaief qb HDM. iq wm`nny v`xe’q qjmiw `}nq. xiehm HDM j`a „eb hbeqwbn b|mw qjm aix{bxiqibeb h}xqbdmw xmfwmf`qma }eax qj`q `wm jmna gy DL Fnbg`n `ea ebq gy HDM Hnm`wief—%
7
Qjmiw be$xiqm wm|imv b DLFnbg`n’x b{mw`qibex qjm vmmc gmbwm iqx g`ecw}{qhy x}ffmxqma qj`q qjm gwbcmw`fm wd v`x ie }nn hbd{ni`ehm b `nnqjm w}nmx. xb iq v`xe’q wm`nny qjm HDM’x {wbgnmd% G}q b hb}wxm iq v`x qjmiw {wbgnmd% Qj`q’x vj`q qjm HDM ix qjmwmbw ‘ qb {wbqmhq hnimeqx ie h`xmx b w`}a bw g`ecw}{qhy% Qb {wbqmhq qjm „ieqmfwiqy b qjm mzhj`efm—%
0 @xxbhi`qma [wmxx *O`e}`wy 00. 7;00) „DL Fnbg`n qw}xqmm vinn dmmq viqj h}xqbdmwx—% Qjm V`nn Xqwmmq Ob}we`n% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy 00. 7;07 wbd?jqq{?""beniem%vxo%hbd"`wqihnm"@[hg=ag`8<90:91gg1`<0g098=6mgm::71%jqdn7 HDM Fwb}{ *Eb|mdgmw <. 7;00) „HDM Fwb}{ Xq`qmdmeq Wmf`waief DL Fnbg`n—% HDM Fwb}{% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy =. 7;07 wbd?jqq{?""hdmfwb}{%dmai`wbbd%hbd"ieamz%{j{2x418,iqmd487;7,{`fmqmd{n`qm4`wqihnm
 
7
Ie qjm vmmcx qj`q j`|m {`xxma. ` h}wib}x vmg b qw`ex`hqibex j`|m x}w`hma gmqvmme DL Fnbg`n. O[ Dbwf`e `eaFbnad`e X`hjx% Gmbwm iqx g`ecw}{qhy. DL Fnbg`n j`a gmme aw`vief abve ` 0%7 ginnibe wm|bn|ief niem b hwmaiq viqjO[ Dbwf`e% Ie g`ecw}{qhy hb}wq. O[ Dbwf`e v`x `gnm qb emfbqi`qm ` nime be xbdm b DL Fnbg`n’x `xxmqx ie mzhj`efmbw {`yief : dinnibe qbv`wax g`ecw}{qhy hbxqx% @hhbwaief qb Wm}qmwx. „Qjm nime {}qx O[Dbwf`e’x ieqmwmxqx `jm`a bDL Fnbg`n h}xqbdmwx vjb j`|m ebq ymq wmhmi|ma `e mxqid`qma 9;; dinnibe vbwqj b dbemy wbd qjmiw `hhb}eqx.vjihj wmd`ie wbme `x wmf}n`qbwx xm`whj bw dixxief }eax%
8
Iq ix `nxb `nnmfma qj`q O[ Dbwf`e `hhm{qma ` wb}fjny7;; dinnibe qw`exmw wbd DL Fnbg`n qjm a`y gmbwm iqx g`ecw}{qhy qb hb|mw `e b|mwaw`q ie DL Fnbg`n’x qw`aief`hhb}eq jmna viqj qjmd *iq xqinn ixe’q hnm`w i O[ Dbwf`e j`x qjm h`xj)%
1
DL Fnbg`n `nxb `{{m`wx qb j`|m xbna j}eawmaxb dinnibex vbwqj b xmh}wiqimx qb Fbnad`e X`hjx ie qjm a`yx nm`aief }{ qb iqx hbnn`{xm. g}q aia ebq iddmai`qmnywmhmi|m {`ydmeq bw qjmd wbd qjm DL Fnbg`n’x hnm`wief wd. ebem bqjmw qj`e O[ Dbwf`e%Qb gm `iw. be Eb|mdgmw 77ea. qjm HDM aia bmw qb {nmafm ==; dinnibe `x ` f}`w`eqmm qb qjm XI[H Qw}xqmm ie qjmm|meq qj`q qjmy aia ebq wmhb|mw `nn b qjm dixxief hnimeq }eax. g}q vm hyeih`nny vbeamw i qj`q {nmafm v`x d`am `qmwqjmy e`nny f}wma b}q vjmwm `nn qjm dbemy j`a fbem% Qjm HDM xmmdx qb j`|m j`a ` fbba iam` gy m`wny Amhmdgmw.g`xma be hbddmeqx d`am gy Hbddbaiqy L}q}wmx Qw`aief Hbddixxibe *HLQH) dmdgmw. Oinn Xbddmwx%
=
Qjm gbqqbdniem ix qj`q DL Fnbg`n’x hnimeq ieqmwmxqx `ea xmh}wiqy `{{m`w qb j`|m gmme xiam$xqm{{ma qb g}y qidm bw giffmw. dbwmid{bwq`eq {n`ymwx qb hb|mw qjmiw nbxxmx *`xxmx). `ea qj`q ix ebq qjm v`y qjm wmf}n`qbwy xyxqmd ix x}{{bxma qb }ehqibe%Vm’wm ebq e`â|m ‘ vm cebv qjm fb|mwedmeq vinn `nv`yx {wbqmhq qjm ieqmwmxqx b qjm gif g`ecx b|mw {`nqwy wmq`inie|mxqbwx. g}q ab qjmy j`|m qb gm xb gw`me `gb}q iq2 Qjm DL Fnbg`n m{ixbam ix g`xih`nny xj`dmnmxx%Qjme qjmwm’x Abaa$Lw`ec% Wmdmdgmw Abaa$Lw`ec2 Iq’x qjm d`xxi|m e`ehi`n wmf}n`qbwy wmbwd `hq qj`q v`x xifemaieqb n`v gy [wmxiameq Bg`d` g`hc ie 7;0;% Vm `wm hmwq`ieny ebq `ex b h}dgmwxbdm b|mwwmf}n`qibe. g}q ie iqxmxxmehm. Abaa$Lw`ec v`x x}{{bxma qb {wb|iam ` emv w`dmvbwc qb `aawmxx qjm {bqmeqi`n `in}wm b ` qbb$gif$qb$`ing`ec% Qjmwm’x ebqjief vwbef viqj qj`q% Fi|me qjm xjmmw xim b qjm b$g`n`ehm xjmmq amwi|`qi|mx d`wcmq. vm abe’q xmm` {wbgnmd viqj `q nm`xq `qqmd{qief qb {wm{`wm bw `ebqjmw n`wfm xh`nm g`ecief `in}wm ie qjm ]X% G}q `ndbxq qvb ym`wxn`qmw. vm j`|m qb n`}fj `q jbv niqqnm b qjm Abaa$Lw`ec w`dmvbwc j`x `hq}`nny gmme id{nmdmeqma% @hhbwaief qb n`vwd A`|ix [bnc. ` dmwm 70- b qjm `hq’x 1;; w}nmd`cief wmp}iwmdmeqx j`|m gmhbdm e`nima xiehm qjm n`v {`xxma ieO}ny 7;0;% B qjm 7;; Abaa$Lw`ec w}nmd`cief wmp}iwmdmeq
am`aniemx 
qj`q j`|m `nwm`ay {`xxma. 61%=- b qjmd j`|mgmme dixxma qb a`qm%
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Qjm n`vymwx d}xq gm j`|ief ` mna a`y viqj `nn qjm {`{mwvbwc%Bem {`wq b qjm Abaa$Lw`ec xqbwy qj`q ieqmwmxqx }x ix qjm HLQH {bxiqibex nidiqx w}nm xmq qb fb ieqb mmhq beO`e}`wy 06. 7;07% Qjm emv {bxiqibe nidiqx `wm `idma `q {wm|meqief mzhmxxi|m x{mh}n`qibe ie qjm hbddbaiqy d`wcmqxvjihj `wm gmnim|ma gy d`ey. iehn}aief b}wxmn|mx. qb j`|m awi|me vina l}hq}`qibex ie qjm fbna `ea xin|mw x{bq {wihmb|mw qjm {`xq amh`am% [bxiqibe nidiqx `wm `e bg|ib}x qjwm`q qb n`wfm }q}wmx x{mh}n`qbwx nicm qjm gif g`ecx. xb iq v`xeb x}w{wixm vjme qvb V`nn Xqwmmq nbggy fwb}{x. qjm Xmh}wiqimx Iea}xqwy `ea Lie`ehi`n D`wcmqx @xxbhi`qibe *XILD@)`ea qjm Ieqmwe`qibe`n Xv`{x `ea Amwi|`qi|mx @xxbhi`qibe *IXA@) n`}ehjma ` n`vx}iq `f`iexq qjm HLQH amd`eaief qj`qqjm emv w}nmx be hbddbaiqy qw`aief gm qjwbve b}q. bw `q qjm |mwy nm`xq. amn`yma% Qjm HLQH |bqma be qjm wmp}mxq qbamn`y id{nmdmeq`qibe `ea bhi`nny wmg}ma iq be O`e}`wy 1qj. vjihj ix ` jm`wqmeief am|mnb{dmeq ie `e bqjmwvixmhyeih`n x`f`%
6
G`hc ie Amhmdgmw. jbvm|mw. qjm HLQH j`a `nwm`ay p}imqny v`i|ma qjm {bxiqibe nidiq nief wmp}iwmdmeqxbe `nn HDM {`wqihi{`eqx }eqin D`y 80. 7;07%
:
Xb m|me i qjm emv w}nmx fb ieqb mmhq qjix dbeqj. g`ecx vbe’q j`|m qbwm{bwq qjmiw {bxiqibe nm|mnx }eqin D`y 80xq miqjmw v`y% Fi|me qjm nbggy fwb}{x’ b}qxq`eaief n`vx}iq `f`iexq qjm emvw}nmx. hbdgiema viqj qjm HLQH’x `{{`wmeq qmeamehy qb fw`eq qmd{bw`wy wm{wim|mx. vm abe’q mz{mhq qjm emv {bxiqibe
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8 N`H`{w`. N`}wme Q`w` `ea Fbnaxqmie. D`qqjmv *O`e}`wy 8. 7;07) „DL Fnbg`n xbna `xxmqx qb Fbnad`e gmbwm hbnn`{xm? xb}whmx—% Wm}qmwx% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy =. 7;07 wbd?jqq{?""vvv%wm}qmwx%hbd"`wqihnm"7;07";0";1"}x$dfnbg`n$fbnad`e$ia]XQWM:;8;0\7;07;0;11 [`qqmwxbe. Xhbqq `ea N}hhjmqqi. @`wbe *Amhmdgmw 70. 7;00) „DF Fnbg`n Qw`exmw Aw`vx Xhw}qiey—% Qjm V`nn Xqwmmq Ob}we`n% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy =. 7;07 wbd?jqq{?""beniem%vxo%hbd"`wqihnm"XG0;;;0171;=796;7;1;=:1;1=6600;6<0<<=<;7<1:%jqdn= Wbmamw. A`|ia *Amhmdgmw 0=. 7;00) „Wmf}n`qbw? Vm cebv vjmwm DL Fnbg`n h`xj vmeq—% Hjih`fb X}e$Qidmx% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy =. 7;07 wbd?jqq{?""vvv%x}eqidmx%hbd"g}xiemxx"9116=<7$17;"wmf}n`qbw$vm$cebv$vjmwm$d$fnbg`n$h`xj$vmeq%jqdn< *O`e}`wy 8. 7;07) „Abaa$Lw`ec [wbfwmxx Wm{bwq—% A`|ix [bnc% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy =. 7;07 wbd? jqq{?""vvv%a`|ix{bnc%hbd"Abaa$Lw`ec$W}nmd`cief$[wbfwmxx$Wm{bwq"6 [wbqmxx. Gme *O`e}`wy 1. 7;07) „Emv Nidiqx be Hbddbaiqy Qw`amx @wm @{{wb|ma—% Am`nGbbc% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy <. 7;07 wbd?jqq{?""am`ngbbc%eyqidmx%hbd"7;07";0";1"wmf}n`qbw$wm}xmx$qb$amn`y$qw`aief$w}nm": HDM Fwb}{ D`wcmq Wmf}n`qibe Am{`wqdmeq *Amhmdgmw 7;. 7;00) „Qmd{bw`wy V`i|mw b @ee}`n ]{a`qm bw [bxiqibe Nidiq Mzmd{qibex—% HDM Fwb}{% Wmqwim|ma O`e}`wy =. 7;07wbd? jqq{?""vvv%hdmfwb}{%hbd"qbbnx$iebwd`qibe"nbbc}{x"`a|ixbwimx"d`wcmq$wmf}n`qibe"HDMFwb}{RW@00;6$=%jqdn
 
8
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nidiq w}nmx qb gm mebwhma `ey qidm xbbe% Behm x}ddmw `{{wb`hjmx. qjmwm vinn {wbg`gny gm dbwm amn`yx `ea dbwmammww`nx. fw`eqief qjm gif {n`ymwx {nmeqy b qidm qb {wbqmhq qjmdxmn|mx% Mzqmea `ea {wmqmea% Amn`y `ea ammw% Qj`q’xqjm xbef vm xief be qjm dmwwy$fb$wb}ea%Qjme qjmwm’x M}wb{m `ea qjm M}wb{m`e Hmeqw`n G`ec *MHG)% G`hc ie Amhmdgmw. qjm difjqy MHG j`a qb xqm{ ie viqjymq `ebqjmw d`xxi|m nip}iaiqy ieomhqibe qb `|mwq ` qbq`n dmnqabve ie qjm M] g`ecief xyxqmd% Be Amhmdgmw 70xq.qjmy lbbama =78 xm{`w`qm M] g`ecx viqj ` „Nbef Qmwd Wme`ehief B{mw`qibe— *NQWB) {wbfw`d qbq`nief ₮1:9%0ginnibe *<7< ginnibe)%
9
Qjm {wbfw`d hbexixqx b nb`ex qj`q `wm a}m ie qjwmm ym`wx `ea vinn hj`wfm `e `hhbddba`qief0- ieqmwmxq w`qm% Qjm nip}iaiqy ieomhqibe vinn `nnbv qjm M] g`ecx qb {`wqihi{`qm ie ` amnifjq}nny hbe|meimeq h`wwy$qw`amvjmwmgy qjmy h`e q`cm qjm gbwwbvma dbemy `q 0- ieqmwmxq `ea ie|mxq iq ie |`wib}x xb|mwmife amgq `}hqibex qj`q vinnnicmny {`y qjmd 8- bw jifjmw% Qjm g`ecx vinn cmm{ qjm aimwmehm ie {wbq. `ea qjm M] [IIFX hb}eqwimx fmq qb gwm`qjmm`ximw cebvief qjmy’nn gm `gnm qb xmnn qjmiw f`wg`fm {`{mw qb qjm M] g`ecx `q x}{{wmxxma w`qmx `x nbef `x qjm NQWB nb`edbemy n`xqx% @ea qjm gmxq {`wq2 Iq abmxe’q ie|bn|m `ey dbemy {wieqief. xb qjmwm’x wm`nny eb wixc b iel`qibe. yb} xmm2Xb o}xq xb vm’wm be qjm x`dm {`fm. i m|mwyqjief fbmx `hhbwaief qb {n`e qjix ym`w. M}wb{m`e xb|mwmife fb|mwedmeqxvinn }ea qjmiw amgq `}hqibex viqj gbwwbvma dbemy nmeq qb qjmd gy b|mw =;; M}wb{m`e g`ecx vjb j`|m qjmdxmn|mxgbwwbvma j}eawmax b ginnibex b m}wbx wbd qjm M}wb{m`e Hmeqw`n G`ec.… vjb `x `w `x vm h`e qmnn. gbwwbvma qjbxmm}wbx wbd qjm |`wib}x M] xb|mwmife xq`qmx *bw xid{ny {wieqma qjmd)% Ab yb} fmq iq2 Ab yb} xmm qjm hiwh}n`wiqy2 Abyb} xmm qjm h`e gmief cihcma abve qjm wb`a2 @ea f}mxx vj`q2 Xiehm ₮1:9%0 ginnibe ix hnm`wny ebq meb}fj qb `|mwqaix`xqmw qjix ym`w *dbxq M] g`ecx `wm xb }eamwh`{iq`nima qjmy’|m xid{ny {`wcma qjm gbwwbvma NQWB dbemy g`hcviqj qjm MHG `q ;%7=- ieqmwmxq). qjm MHG j`x {wbdixma qb n`}ehj `ebqjmw NQWB ieomhqibe qjix hbdief Lmgw}`wy!
0;
 Eb vbeamw fbna v`x abve ie Amhmdgmw% Qjmy hbd{nmqmny xbn|ma qjm M}wb{m`e amgq hwixix!N`xq g}q ebq nm`xq. vm d}xq dmeqibe `e `n`wdief hbd{bemeq b qjix ym`w’x E`qibe`n Ammexm @}qjbwi`qibe @hq *EA@@)qj`q v`x p}imqny xifema ieqb n`v gy [wmxiameq Bg`d` be Amhmdgmw 80xq. 7;00% Qjix ym`w’x ammexm ginn. bhi`nnycebve `x Xme`qm Ginn 0:<6. iehn}amx ` x{mhih {wb|ixibe qj`q xmmdx qb fw`eq qjm ]X fb|mwedmeq qjm {bvmw qb amq`ie`hh}xma qmwwbwixqx. iehn}aief ]X hiqimex.
ieamleiqmny. viqjb}q qwi`n
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