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MRE120124

MRE120124

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05/12/2014

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Morning Report
24.01.2012
 
NOK & 3m NIBOR
2.302.602.903.2023-Jan3-Jan14-Dec7.407.607.808.00
3m ra.EURNOK
 
SEK & 3m STIBOR
2.402.502.602.702.8023-Jan3-Jan14-Dec8.78.99.19.3
3m ra.EURSEK
 
Headquarters
+47 030000021 OsloStranden 21
Offices AbroadNew York
+1 212 681 3800
London
+44 207 6211111
Shanghai
+86 21 6132 2888
Singapore
+65 6220 6144
Stockholm
+46 8 4734850
Sales Oslo (+47)
Equity 22 94 89 40Fixed Income 22 01 78 20FX/IR 22 01 76 50
Regional sales (+47)Bergen
55 21 95 80
 Bodø
75 52 9910
Fredrikstad
69 39 41 50
Hamar
62 54 14 82
Haugesund
52 72 09 06
Lillehammer
61 24 79 56
Kristiansand
38 07 28 62
Oslo
22 01 76 50
 Stavanger
51 84 04 30
Tromsø
77 62 96 80
Trondheim
73 58 74 89
Tønsberg
33 01 73 80
 Ålesund
70 11 69 85
Research Regional Sales (+47)
Eirik Larsen 22 01 76 55
Research FX/IR (+47)
Øystein Dørum 22 01 76 56Kjersti Haugland 22 01 78 03Ole André Kjennerud 22 01 78 24Knut A. Magnussen 22 01 76 63Camilla Viland 22 01 77 41Kyrre Aamdal 22 01 76 67
Credit Research (+47)
Ole Einar Stokstad 22 01 78 37Mikael L. Gjerding 22 01 77 62Åse Haagensen 22 01 76 93Rolv Kristian Heitmann 22 01 76 77Thomas Larsen 22 01 77 36Knut Olav Rønningen 22 01 78 15
Greek debt talk drag 
Euro zone ministers last night rejected an offer made by private bondholders to help restructureGreece's debt. Even if the Greek debt talks drag, the fear of an escalation of the euro area debtcrisis seems to be abating. This development has benefited the euro over the last few days.
Euro zone ministers last night
rejected an offer made by private bondholders to help restructureGreece's debt.
Banks and other private investors demand an interest on four per cent on new longerdated bonds that are expected to be issued in exchange for their existing Greek holdings. Greece saythey are not prepared to pay more than 3.5 per cent. An agreement between the parties is probablynecessary to avoid a near term Greek default. Even if a Greek debt talks drag,
the euro hasstrengthened
since yesterday morning. EURUSD is currently trading around 1.30. In comparison thecross was around 1.26 one week ago. The EUR strengthening seems to be related to a generalimprovement in market sentiment. Stock markets have risen over the last week and Italian yields havedeclined. The interest on a 10 year Italian government bonds is now around 6 per cent, while they wereabout 7 per cent at the start of the year. Thus, it seems like the fear of an escalation of the debt crisis isabating. The latest ECB measures may explain this development. The central bank offer European banks3 years funding at a very favorable interest rate (1 per cent). This can be a way to finance debt burdenedeuro area economies. The banks may borrow cheaply from the central bank and invest the money at ahigher rate, in for example Italian government bonds. The measure is seemingly a success.Another positive development coming out from the euro area yesterday is that Germany now say theyare
open to boosting the firepower of the euro zone's rescue fund to EUR 750 billion.
In returnGermany wants euro zone governments to sign up to rules to cut budget deficits and public debt that aremuch tougher than those currently foreseen. This was known only hours after the IMF warned that theeuro zone needed to boost the rescue fund to prevent the crisis from spreading to countries like Spainand Italy. Such a development could have disastrous consequences. Lagarde also call on the ECB tosoften monetary policy as growth and inflation in Europe abates. The IMF will later today release newforecasts for the world economy and according to Lagarde the fund will revise their GDP estimates downfor most regions.European leaders yesterday agreed on a
gradual ban on all new contracts to import, buy oftransport Iranian crude oil.
The move is made to put pressure on Iran's much debated nuclearprogramme. The EU and the US believe the programme is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Irandoes on the other hand say the programme is necessary to meet its raising energy needs. TheInternational Atomic Energy Agency did however last year say they had evidence that suggested thatIran had worked on designing nuclear weapons. Some EU states are very dependent on Iranian oil andto protect Europe's economy the EU governments agreed to phase in the embargo, giving countries withexisting contracts with Iran until July 1
st
to end those deals. As a response to the EU ban, many now fearthat Iran will close down the important Strait of Hormuz (About 20 per cent of world oil passes the strait).
The oil price rose yesterday
as a response to the latest tensions between the EU and Iran. One barrelof crude oil is currently trading at about USD 111/ barrel. The increase in the oil price may be one reasonwhy
the NOK has strengthened
since yesterday morning. Increased risk appetite is also positive for theNorwegian currency. Versus the euro, the Norwegian currency is currently trading at its strongest levelssince September.There are few key figures on the agenda today. From the euro area, final PMI indices are released today.The indices are expected to be up compared to last month, but still likely to be below 50, which indicatedeclining activity. Furthermore consensus believes that euro area manufacturing orders declined inNovember. This also indicates slower growth ahead. The US market is looking forward towards theFederal Reserve's monetary policy meeting which starts today. This is a two day meeting, thus theoutcome and the following press conference will not be before tomorrow. The committee will then, for thefirst time, release a forecast for the key policy rate. This will probably not be an official rate path from theFOMC, but rather a path averaging the members' forecasts, with paths for the lowest and highestprojections.
camilla.viland@dnb.no
 Yesterday's key economic events (GMT)As ofUnitPrior Poll Actual07:45 France INSEE sentiment Jan Index 94 959117:00 EMU Eurogroup Finance Minister meetingToday’s key economic events (GMT)As of Unit Prior Poll DNB09:58 EMU PMI, total Jan Index 48.3 48.411:00 EMU Manuf. orders Nov m/m % 1.8 -2.2Global IMF: World Economic Outlook, GFSR og Fiscal Monitor - Updates
 
 
Morning Report
24.01.2012
 
Oil spot & NOK TWI
94969810023-Jan3-Jan14-Dec100106112118
NOK TWI ra.$/b
 
EUR vs GBP & CHF
0.810.820.830.840.8523-Jan3-Jan14-Dec1.101.151.201.25
GBP r.aCHF
 
EURSEK & OMXS
35040045050023-Jan3-Jan14-Dec8.88.99.09.19.2
OMXS ra.
 
Gov. Bonds, 10y
1.502.002.503.0023-Jan3-Jan14-Dec1.501.752.00
NOK, ra.SEK
 
JPY and DowJones
757677787923-Jan3-Jan14-Dec10111213
USDJPY ra.DowJones, 1000
 
USD and gold
1.261.301.341.381.4223-Jan3-Jan14-Dec15001600170018001900
EURUSD ra.Gold
 
FXPriorLast%In 1 m...3 m...6 m...12 mFXUSD%USDJPY77.0177.030.0%77777785AUD1.0502-0.33%EURUSD1.3031.302-0.1%1.251.201.201.35CAD1.00870.10%EURGBP0.8370.8370.0%0.820.800.800.85CHF0.92770.08%EURCHF1.2081.2080.0%1.231.231.231.30CZK19.48-0.01%EURNOK7.6327.6340.0%7.807.807.657.65DKK5.71470.13%EURSEK8.7778.7860.1%9.109.209.009.00GBP1.5554-0.13%EURDKK7.4367.4360.0%7.457.457.457.45HKD7.76090.01%USDNOK5.8565.8690.2%6.246.506.385.67ISK123.570.10%JPYNOK7.6097.6220.2%8.108.448.286.67KWD0.2786-0.04%SEKNOK0.8710.870-0.1%0.860.850.850.85LTL2.65380.10%GBPNOK9.1219.1290.1%9.59.89.69.0LVL0.53690.00%USDSEK6.7406.7510.2%7.287.677.506.67NZD0.81070.05%JPYSEK8.7588.7710.1%5.615.905.785.67PLN3.29210.22%NOKSEK1.1501.1510.1%1.171.181.181.18SGD1.26760.06%GBPSEK10.49110.5030.1%11.1011.5011.2510.59RUB30.8838-0.04%
SPOT RATES AND FORECASTS
PriorLastPriorLastPriorLastPriorLast1m2.302.292.332.330.720.700.280.283m2.652.672.602.601.131.110.560.566m2.932.942.672.671.431.420.790.7912m 3.123.112.722.731.621.610.950.943y2.752.741.911.911.271.260.710.725y3.053.052.092.091.681.671.221.237y3.323.322.292.292.062.051.711.7210y3.573.562.442.442.422.422.172.17PriorLastPriorLastPriorLastPriorLast10y115.25111.50115.585115.59100.083100.3099.48437599.5510y yield2.332.361.831.831.971.972.062.06vs bund0.360.39-0.13-0.130.090.103m nibor10y swap3m stibor10y swap3m euribor10y swap3m libor10y swapIn 3m2.403.502.152.251.052.500.552.256m2.303.751.952.500.902.750.552.5012m2.304.251.753.000.903.250.503.00
SWAP AND MONEYMARKET RATESGOVERNMENT BONDSINTEREST RATE FORECASTS
NIBORSTIBOREURIBORUSD LIBORNORWAYSWEDENGERMANYUSNORWAYSWEDENGERMANYUS
FRA NOK3mPriorchgTWIToday%Stock ex.Today%MAR2.562.560.00NOK95.500.05Dow Jones12,708.8-0.1%JUN2.322.310.01SEK116.360.03Nasdaq2,784.2-0.1%SEP2.242.25-0.01EUR102.430.00FTSE1005,782.60.9%DEC2.252.26-0.01USD79.810.04Eurostoxx502,441.40.6%FRA SEK3mPriorchgGBP80.800.0- Dax6,436.60.5% MAR2.322.310.01Comm.TodayLastNikkei2258,785.30.0% JUN1.981.99-0.01Brent spot110.0110.0Oslo398.200.5%SEP1.731.74-0.01Brent 1m110.8110.6Stockholm479.050.7%DEC1.671.660.00Spot gold 1675.51675.5Copenhagen526.550.2%
MISCELLANEOUS
Sources to all tables and graphics: Reuters and DNB Markets

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