Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more ➡
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Add note
Save to My Library
Sync to mobile
Look up keyword
Like this
2Activity
×
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
The Future is Difficult to See Cause There Are Too Many

The Future is Difficult to See Cause There Are Too Many

Ratings: (0)|Views: 757|Likes:
Published by Trendbüro

More info:

Published by: Trendbüro on Jan 25, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See More
See less

01/25/2012

pdf

text

original

 
Thefutureisdifficulttoseecausetherearetoomany.
LecturebyBirgitGebhardtatBaden-WuerttembergCooperativeStateUniversity,Mannheim,December9
th
,2011aboutthefuturein2034andtheexpectationsofyoungemployeesoftoday.
ActuallytheworkofTrendbüroisnotpredictionbutobservingchanges,linkingtrendsandsortingouttherelevanttopics.Topicsforbrandorcommunicationstrategieshelpourclientstoplacetheirfastmovingconsumergoodsinasaturatedmarketsuccessfully.Herewetalkaboutthree-to-fiveortenyearsmaximum.Twenty-fiveyearsisdifferent.Notonlybecausewedonothaveacrystalballandcannotseealltheinventions,whicharegoingtocomeandchangeourlives.Inaconnectedworldeverythingcanhaveinfluencesonanything.Andyet-theworldhasnotbecometheglobalvillage-atleastnotinahomogenousculturalnoreconomicway.Andthatiswhywehavetobereadyformoresurprises.Thefuturehasalwaysfascinatedpeople.Wewanttosensefuturechancesandidentifyrisksinordertobeprepared.Economiccrises,epidemics,warsandecologicaldisasters–mankindcandealwithalot,butcannotovercomemostofitpermanently.Aliens,robots,artificialintelligence–nowadays,manyofthepopularscience-fictionclichésdonotseemsoextraterrestrialandunrealisticafterall.
Ontheotherhandevensciencefictionauthorsadmittodaythatitisnotnecessaryanymoretousesciencefictionasameaningofdramaturgytogiveanideaofapossiblefuture.TakethatquotefromWilliamGibson:»IfeltthatIwastryingtodescribeanunthinkablepresentandIactuallyfeelthatsciencefiction’sbestusetodayistheexplorationofcontemporaryrealityratherthananyattempttopredictwherewearegoing…Thebestthingyoucandowithsciencetodayisuseittoexplorethepresent.Earthisthealienplanetnow.«Climatechange,flowsofrefugeesandthescarcityofresources–manyofthethingsthatarebackgroundsoundstousyet,couldbecomeguidingprinciplesandthereforechangeourdailyroutinetomorrow.Meanwhile,ourglobalizedworldgainedsomuchcomplexity,thateventhepresentseemsoverstraining.VariousdevelopmentsworktogetherandletGermanyfacedifficultdecisions:Aging,atwo-classsociety,andthedebtoverloadoftheEU,onlytonameafew.Atthesametime,globalization,digitalization,andvirtualizationalreadyinfluenceourdailyroutineandsphereinawaythathints,thatthenetworkedfuturehasalreadybegun.Thefutureconceptthatispresentedhereisbasedonfourconditions:Thedemographicchangewhichwillmanifestitselfinthenext25years;ThegrowinggapbetweenthepoorandtherichinGermany,againstthebackgroundofEuropeheavilyindebt;
 
 
Theglobalperpetuationofthecapitalisticeconomicprinciples;Theintelligentnetworkinganddatacommunicationbetweenindividuals,machinesandsystems.Connectingthesefourcorridorsofdevelopmentandtryingtoputthemintorelationtoeachother,providestheframeworkforafictionaloverallpicture.2037willpresentuswiththesamechallengesastoday’ssociety:increasingfeasibilitythroughresearch,pressingimpulsesineconomy,sociopoliticalconflictsandculturalquestionsoftheself-conceptionofindividualsandsociety.Thetechnologicalprogressisperceivedtooutrunoursocietalchangeatthemoment.Connectedtoeconomicneedsthistrendpresentsthefertilesoilforfrictionandvalueshifts.Byprinciplethefuturewillnotbeverydifferentfromtoday:Technologyexpandsourpossibilitiesandoptimizesourdailylife.Here,progressismanifestedinthelargestdimensions.Moreinteresting,however,isthequestionhowwearegoingtofeelasindividualsandpartofoursocietyinthisnewworld.Howexternalinfluencesaregoingtointerweavewithourpersonallifeandhowwearegoingtotrytokeeppaceor–atleasttemporarily–breakout.Theforecastsarebasedoncapitalisticpatternsofthedecreasinglysocialmarketeconomy.Onecannotpresumethatwewillearnanddistributeourprosperityaccordingtocompletelydifferentprinciplesin25years.WewillratherexperiencearelocationoffinancialandeconomicpowerfromtheUSAand“OldEurope”toAsiaandtoday’semergingmarkets.Onecanverywellexpectthattherewillexistmanysmall,localexperimentalmodelslookingforanewformofsocietalsatisfactionoverhere.ShouldtheGermanfederalismsurvivethenext25yearsaswell,itisimaginablethat,duetoemptycoffers,increasinginfluenceoftheeconomyandgrowingcivicparticipationsubstantialregionaldifferencesconcerningeducation,investment,distributionofincomeandtaxationwilldevelopindependentlybetweenthefederalstates.Withallconsequencesthatwillfollow.Thequestion,whichtrendwillberegardedasmeaningfulandhowmuchchangetheconsumertoleratesispartofthedailyworkofTrendbüro.Againstthebackgroundofconsultancyofclientsfromtheautomotiveandconsumergoodsindustry,wedeliveracross-sectorperspective.Foralmost20yearsnow,Trendbürohasbeenobservingthedevelopmentsfromaromaproducersthroughtopaymenttransactionsalwaysfocusingontheusers’perspective.Althoughtoday’sconsumerdemandsareindividualandhybridthereisonecommonground:Humans,notseeinganypersonalorusefuladvantage,willrejectthenew.Overhere,changeisregardedasathreattotheobtained.EspeciallyGermansculturallystruggletoconsidertheunfamiliarassomethingpositiveorevenneutral.ThefearofchangeswillleadtofatalconsequencesforGermanyintheglobalcompetition.Weneedtosharpenourimaginationforwhatliesaheadtostartadiscourseofopportunities.Beforewecancastanundisguisedlookintothefuture,weneedtoacceptthepresence.Justastheescapedghostcannotbeshovedbackintothebottle,numeroustemporarydevelopmentscannotbedialedback.Withaperspectiveoftheyear2037,itmustbeclearthatevenchangesthatappeardispleasingtoday,aregoingtoberoutineinthefutureandareabletoreleaseadvantages,needtobeaddressed.BestexampleforpeoplefamiliarizingthemselveswithprogressistheInternet.20yearsafteritsintroductionwealreadyareasocietyofinformationandcommunication.Today,weareevenunabletoefficientlyorganizeourprivateaswellasbusinesslifewithouttheInternetanddigitaldatacommunication.Formerbigbrotherphobiaslikethegeolocation-basedsurveillanceweresupersededbyGPSnavigationsservicesthatconveyedusthefeelingofautonomyinanincreasinglycomplexworld.
 
Thosewhowanttolook25yearsaheadcannotclosetheirmindtotechnologicalpossibilitiesandeconomicenginesofchange.25yearscanonlybeovercomebyconstructivebrainexercises.Let’senterascenerydepictingtheconnectionofmanyparalleldevelopmentsbyreferencetotwoprotagonists.Thelookintothefutureisplayedby63-year-oldbusinessconsultantGeoffreywhotakesonawholenewprivateaswellasbusinesslifeand34-year-oldITexpertRominawhowantstobuildupasecondexistenceforherselfandherUkrainianfamily.Germanyintheyear2037showsextremeswithhighpotentialofconflict:oldandyoung,richandpoor,educatedanduneducated.Inbetween,aheterogeneousmiddleclassfightsforalivingstandarditclaimsjustifiedbyeducationandorigin.Thetwoprotagonistsareallplacedwithinthismiddleclass;notonlybecauseitprovidesthebiggestidentificationpotential,butalsobecausethisgroupbestrepresentsthevarietyoflifedesignsandtheirindividualelaboration.Fortheirnotionofhappiness,allofthecharactersusetheirprivateaswellastheirprofessionalchances–anddemandfullsupportoftheirpartnersandfamiliesforalifecourse,whichnoonecanpredictanymore.WhenyouwillleavetheprotectivesurroundingsofyourUniversity,youareeducatedforthegloballabormarket.Solet’sfaceajobinterview,Romina,oneofthecharactersfromthebook,isexperiencingintheyear2037:RominaThefirmhaditsofficesinoneofthetowerbuildingsatBerlinerTor.Amongthreeothercandidatesshewaswelcomedbyanassistantinthelobbyandledtoanareainthebackwheresmallcabinetswithpolsteredbenchesandmirroredwallsofferedworkingandrelaxingspaceforfreelancersandco-workers.EachapplicanthadtakenaseatinaboothandreceivedaneTabletthattheyweresupposedtousetoaccessarecruitinggame.Viaanavatartheyvirtuallycontrolledthedepartmentinwhichfreecapacitieswereadvertised.AnimatedcolleaguesgreetedRominaandshowedhertheworkingplaceandspectrumoftasks.ThequalityofthedisplayoftheSeriousGamewassohighthatshetemporarilybelieved,shehasbeenliveconnectedtoavideoconference.Theco-workersspokeEnglish,manylookedAsian.InthemiddleofthegametheHeadofRecruitmentsuddenlypoppedupinthechatandwantedtoknowifshewouldhaveanyfurtherquestionsaboutherfuturetasks.“Isitpossibletogettoknowthefuturesupervisors?”,Rominaasked.TheheadofrecruitmentdialedthenumberofacertainJenniferandpresentedRominaasanapplicanttoher:awomanwithaponytailandbarely30yearsofageappearedinailluminatedoffice.Rominacouldseetheheadsoftheotherco-workersthroughaglasswallandrecognizedthatitwasfiercelyrainingandthatthestreetlightshavealreadybeenlit.Theofficehadtobeinadifferentcountrywithadifferenttimezone.ForonesecondJenniferlookedasifshehadbeendisturbedbytheheadofrecruitment.ThenshesmiledprofessionallyandgreetedRominawithtwo,orthreesentencesofsmalltalk.BeforeRominawasbeenabletoaskheranything,theheadofrecruitmentendedtheinterviewandreferredtothecontinuanceofthegamethatwouldincludeallfurtherinformation.Thathadfactuallyproventobetrueformostparts,theofferedsalarywasconsiderablebutemotionally,Rominaremainedwithabigquestionmark.WhatRominaismissingisanemotionalapproachtoherfutureworkingenvironment.ItisnotthattheSeriousGameorpeopleonscreensaretootechy,itis,thatallthisseemsnotbeingembeddedintoaconcept,wherepeopledonotonlyfunctionlikemachines,butalsoinspiretheirworkingplaceanddofillthecorporatewithacertainspirit.Companiestodayrealize,thattheyhavetochangetheirinnercommunicationstrategiesandhavetobepreparedforanewgenerationofdigitalnatives.Thesearethetalentstheyurgentlyneed–notonlyasenterprisesrunningoutofmanpower,butalsobecausethisgenerationincarnatesthenew

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->