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Thefutureisdifficulttoseecausetherearetoomany.
LecturebyBirgitGebhardtatBaden-WuerttembergCooperativeStateUniversity,Mannheim,December9
th
,2011aboutthefuturein2034andtheexpectationsofyoungemployeesoftoday.
ActuallytheworkofTrendbüroisnotpredictionbutobservingchanges,linkingtrendsandsortingouttherelevanttopics.Topicsforbrandorcommunicationstrategieshelpourclientstoplacetheirfastmovingconsumergoodsinasaturatedmarketsuccessfully.Herewetalkaboutthree-to-fiveortenyearsmaximum.Twenty-fiveyearsisdifferent.Notonlybecausewedonothaveacrystalballandcannotseealltheinventions,whicharegoingtocomeandchangeourlives.Inaconnectedworldeverythingcanhaveinfluencesonanything.Andyet-theworldhasnotbecometheglobalvillage-atleastnotinahomogenousculturalnoreconomicway.Andthatiswhywehavetobereadyformoresurprises.Thefuturehasalwaysfascinatedpeople.Wewanttosensefuturechancesandidentifyrisksinordertobeprepared.Economiccrises,epidemics,warsandecologicaldisasters–mankindcandealwithalot,butcannotovercomemostofitpermanently.Aliens,robots,artificialintelligence–nowadays,manyofthepopularscience-fictionclichésdonotseemsoextraterrestrialandunrealisticafterall.
Ontheotherhandevensciencefictionauthorsadmittodaythatitisnotnecessaryanymoretousesciencefictionasameaningofdramaturgytogiveanideaofapossiblefuture.TakethatquotefromWilliamGibson:»IfeltthatIwastryingtodescribeanunthinkablepresentandIactuallyfeelthatsciencefiction’sbestusetodayistheexplorationofcontemporaryrealityratherthananyattempttopredictwherewearegoing…Thebestthingyoucandowithsciencetodayisuseittoexplorethepresent.Earthisthealienplanetnow.«Climatechange,flowsofrefugeesandthescarcityofresources–manyofthethingsthatarebackgroundsoundstousyet,couldbecomeguidingprinciplesandthereforechangeourdailyroutinetomorrow.Meanwhile,ourglobalizedworldgainedsomuchcomplexity,thateventhepresentseemsoverstraining.VariousdevelopmentsworktogetherandletGermanyfacedifficultdecisions:Aging,atwo-classsociety,andthedebtoverloadoftheEU,onlytonameafew.Atthesametime,globalization,digitalization,andvirtualizationalreadyinfluenceourdailyroutineandsphereinawaythathints,thatthenetworkedfuturehasalreadybegun.Thefutureconceptthatispresentedhereisbasedonfourconditions:Thedemographicchangewhichwillmanifestitselfinthenext25years;ThegrowinggapbetweenthepoorandtherichinGermany,againstthebackgroundofEuropeheavilyindebt;
 
 
Theglobalperpetuationofthecapitalisticeconomicprinciples;Theintelligentnetworkinganddatacommunicationbetweenindividuals,machinesandsystems.Connectingthesefourcorridorsofdevelopmentandtryingtoputthemintorelationtoeachother,providestheframeworkforafictionaloverallpicture.2037willpresentuswiththesamechallengesastoday’ssociety:increasingfeasibilitythroughresearch,pressingimpulsesineconomy,sociopoliticalconflictsandculturalquestionsoftheself-conceptionofindividualsandsociety.Thetechnologicalprogressisperceivedtooutrunoursocietalchangeatthemoment.Connectedtoeconomicneedsthistrendpresentsthefertilesoilforfrictionandvalueshifts.Byprinciplethefuturewillnotbeverydifferentfromtoday:Technologyexpandsourpossibilitiesandoptimizesourdailylife.Here,progressismanifestedinthelargestdimensions.Moreinteresting,however,isthequestionhowwearegoingtofeelasindividualsandpartofoursocietyinthisnewworld.Howexternalinfluencesaregoingtointerweavewithourpersonallifeandhowwearegoingtotrytokeeppaceor–atleasttemporarily–breakout.Theforecastsarebasedoncapitalisticpatternsofthedecreasinglysocialmarketeconomy.Onecannotpresumethatwewillearnanddistributeourprosperityaccordingtocompletelydifferentprinciplesin25years.WewillratherexperiencearelocationoffinancialandeconomicpowerfromtheUSAand“OldEurope”toAsiaandtoday’semergingmarkets.Onecanverywellexpectthattherewillexistmanysmall,localexperimentalmodelslookingforanewformofsocietalsatisfactionoverhere.ShouldtheGermanfederalismsurvivethenext25yearsaswell,itisimaginablethat,duetoemptycoffers,increasinginfluenceoftheeconomyandgrowingcivicparticipationsubstantialregionaldifferencesconcerningeducation,investment,distributionofincomeandtaxationwilldevelopindependentlybetweenthefederalstates.Withallconsequencesthatwillfollow.Thequestion,whichtrendwillberegardedasmeaningfulandhowmuchchangetheconsumertoleratesispartofthedailyworkofTrendbüro.Againstthebackgroundofconsultancyofclientsfromtheautomotiveandconsumergoodsindustry,wedeliveracross-sectorperspective.Foralmost20yearsnow,Trendbürohasbeenobservingthedevelopmentsfromaromaproducersthroughtopaymenttransactionsalwaysfocusingontheusers’perspective.Althoughtoday’sconsumerdemandsareindividualandhybridthereisonecommonground:Humans,notseeinganypersonalorusefuladvantage,willrejectthenew.Overhere,changeisregardedasathreattotheobtained.EspeciallyGermansculturallystruggletoconsidertheunfamiliarassomethingpositiveorevenneutral.ThefearofchangeswillleadtofatalconsequencesforGermanyintheglobalcompetition.Weneedtosharpenourimaginationforwhatliesaheadtostartadiscourseofopportunities.Beforewecancastanundisguisedlookintothefuture,weneedtoacceptthepresence.Justastheescapedghostcannotbeshovedbackintothebottle,numeroustemporarydevelopmentscannotbedialedback.Withaperspectiveoftheyear2037,itmustbeclearthatevenchangesthatappeardispleasingtoday,aregoingtoberoutineinthefutureandareabletoreleaseadvantages,needtobeaddressed.BestexampleforpeoplefamiliarizingthemselveswithprogressistheInternet.20yearsafteritsintroductionwealreadyareasocietyofinformationandcommunication.Today,weareevenunabletoefficientlyorganizeourprivateaswellasbusinesslifewithouttheInternetanddigitaldatacommunication.Formerbigbrotherphobiaslikethegeolocation-basedsurveillanceweresupersededbyGPSnavigationsservicesthatconveyedusthefeelingofautonomyinanincreasinglycomplexworld.
 
Thosewhowanttolook25yearsaheadcannotclosetheirmindtotechnologicalpossibilitiesandeconomicenginesofchange.25yearscanonlybeovercomebyconstructivebrainexercises.Let’senterascenerydepictingtheconnectionofmanyparalleldevelopmentsbyreferencetotwoprotagonists.Thelookintothefutureisplayedby63-year-oldbusinessconsultantGeoffreywhotakesonawholenewprivateaswellasbusinesslifeand34-year-oldITexpertRominawhowantstobuildupasecondexistenceforherselfandherUkrainianfamily.Germanyintheyear2037showsextremeswithhighpotentialofconflict:oldandyoung,richandpoor,educatedanduneducated.Inbetween,aheterogeneousmiddleclassfightsforalivingstandarditclaimsjustifiedbyeducationandorigin.Thetwoprotagonistsareallplacedwithinthismiddleclass;notonlybecauseitprovidesthebiggestidentificationpotential,butalsobecausethisgroupbestrepresentsthevarietyoflifedesignsandtheirindividualelaboration.Fortheirnotionofhappiness,allofthecharactersusetheirprivateaswellastheirprofessionalchances–anddemandfullsupportoftheirpartnersandfamiliesforalifecourse,whichnoonecanpredictanymore.WhenyouwillleavetheprotectivesurroundingsofyourUniversity,youareeducatedforthegloballabormarket.Solet’sfaceajobinterview,Romina,oneofthecharactersfromthebook,isexperiencingintheyear2037:RominaThefirmhaditsofficesinoneofthetowerbuildingsatBerlinerTor.Amongthreeothercandidatesshewaswelcomedbyanassistantinthelobbyandledtoanareainthebackwheresmallcabinetswithpolsteredbenchesandmirroredwallsofferedworkingandrelaxingspaceforfreelancersandco-workers.EachapplicanthadtakenaseatinaboothandreceivedaneTabletthattheyweresupposedtousetoaccessarecruitinggame.Viaanavatartheyvirtuallycontrolledthedepartmentinwhichfreecapacitieswereadvertised.AnimatedcolleaguesgreetedRominaandshowedhertheworkingplaceandspectrumoftasks.ThequalityofthedisplayoftheSeriousGamewassohighthatshetemporarilybelieved,shehasbeenliveconnectedtoavideoconference.Theco-workersspokeEnglish,manylookedAsian.InthemiddleofthegametheHeadofRecruitmentsuddenlypoppedupinthechatandwantedtoknowifshewouldhaveanyfurtherquestionsaboutherfuturetasks.“Isitpossibletogettoknowthefuturesupervisors?”,Rominaasked.TheheadofrecruitmentdialedthenumberofacertainJenniferandpresentedRominaasanapplicanttoher:awomanwithaponytailandbarely30yearsofageappearedinailluminatedoffice.Rominacouldseetheheadsoftheotherco-workersthroughaglasswallandrecognizedthatitwasfiercelyrainingandthatthestreetlightshavealreadybeenlit.Theofficehadtobeinadifferentcountrywithadifferenttimezone.ForonesecondJenniferlookedasifshehadbeendisturbedbytheheadofrecruitment.ThenshesmiledprofessionallyandgreetedRominawithtwo,orthreesentencesofsmalltalk.BeforeRominawasbeenabletoaskheranything,theheadofrecruitmentendedtheinterviewandreferredtothecontinuanceofthegamethatwouldincludeallfurtherinformation.Thathadfactuallyproventobetrueformostparts,theofferedsalarywasconsiderablebutemotionally,Rominaremainedwithabigquestionmark.WhatRominaismissingisanemotionalapproachtoherfutureworkingenvironment.ItisnotthattheSeriousGameorpeopleonscreensaretootechy,itis,thatallthisseemsnotbeingembeddedintoaconcept,wherepeopledonotonlyfunctionlikemachines,butalsoinspiretheirworkingplaceanddofillthecorporatewithacertainspirit.Companiestodayrealize,thattheyhavetochangetheirinnercommunicationstrategiesandhavetobepreparedforanewgenerationofdigitalnatives.Thesearethetalentstheyurgentlyneed–notonlyasenterprisesrunningoutofmanpower,butalsobecausethisgenerationincarnatesthenew
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