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Crop Yield Forecasting by Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

Crop Yield Forecasting by Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

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Published by Alexander Decker
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Mathematical Theory and Modeling
 
www.iiste.org
 
ISSN 2224
-
5804 (Paper) ISSN 2225
-
0522 (Online)
 
Vol.1, No.3, 2011
 
1
Crop Yield Forecasting by Adaptive Neuro FuzzyInference System
Pankaj Kumar*VCSG College of Horticulture, GBPUA&T, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand
*
pankaj591@gmail.com
 
Abstract
Meteorological uncertainties affect crop yield portentously during different stages of crop growing seasons,therefore several studies have been carried out to forecast crop yield using climatic parameters withempirical statistical regression equations relating regional yield with predictor variables. In this study anattempt has been made to develop Crop Yield Forecasting models to map relation between climatic dataand crop yield. Present study was undertaken for forecasting rice yield by adaptive neuro fuzzy inferencesystem (ANFIS) technique based on time series data of 27 years, yield and weather data (w.e.f. 1981-82 to2007-08) obtained from G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, District UdhamSingh Nagar, Uttarakhand, India.
 
Keywords:
climate, crop yield, ANFIS, forecasting
1. Introduction
In India it is possible to cultivate large number of crops due to diverse climatic conditions. Amongthese crops Rice (
Oryza sativa
L.) is important food crops of the country. The total area under cultivationof Rice 43.6 (22.6% of gross cropped area) and the total production of Rice is 94.1 million tonnes duringthe year 2007-08 constituting about 42.9% of total food production (Economic Survey 2007-2008). Cropfailure on account of drought or flood will have a severe repercussion not only on the country’s economybut also on food security.The forecasting of crop yield may be done by using three major objective methods (i) biometricalcharacteristics (ii) weather variables and (iii) agricultural inputs (Agrawal
et al.
2001). These approachescan be used individually or in combination to give a composite model. Forecasting is an significant aid ineffective and efficient planning and is more important aspect for a developing economy such as ours so thatadequate planning exercise is undertaken for sustainable growth, overall development and povertyalleviation. In management and administrative situations the need for planning is great because the leadtime for decision making ranges from several years (for capital investments) to a few days or hours (fortransportation or production schedules) to a few seconds (for telecommunication routing or electrical utilityloading). Forecast of crop yield is of immense utility to the government and planners in formulation andimplementation of various policies relating to food procurement, storage, distribution, price, import-exportetc.Several studies have been carried out to forecast crop yield using weather parameters (Huda
et al.
 (1975), Choudhary and Sarkar (1981), Kokate
et al.
(2000), etc.). However, such forecast studies based onstatistical models need to be done on continuing basis and for different agro-climatic zones, due to visibleeffects of changing environmental conditions and weather shifts at different locations and areas. Therefore,there is a need to develop area specific forecasting models based on time series data to help the policymakers for taking effective decisions to counter adverse situations in food production.In recent years soft computing techniques like, artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy logic,genetic algorithm and chaos theory have been widely applied in the sphere of prediction and time seriesmodelling. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) which is integration of neural networks andfuzzy logic has the potential to capture the benefits of both these fields in a single framework. ANFISutilizes linguistic information from the fuzzy logic as well learning capability of an ANN. Thus the present
 
Mathematical Theory and Modeling
 
www.iiste.org
 
ISSN 2224
-
5804 (Paper) ISSN 2225
-
0522 (Online)
 
Vol.1, No.3, 2011
 
2
study was carried out to develop forecasting model based on time series agricultural data related to yield of rice crops based on weather parameters.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)
Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is a fuzzy mapping algorithm that is based on Tagaki-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system (Jang
et al.,
1997 and Loukas, 2001).ANFIS is integration of neural networks and fuzzy logic and have the potential to capture the benefits of both these fields in asingle framework. ANFIS utilizes linguistic information from the fuzzy logic as well learning capability of an ANN for automatic fuzzy if-then rule generation and parameter optimization.A conceptual ANFIS consists of five components: inputs and output database, a Fuzzy systemgenerator, a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), and an Adaptive Neural Network. The Sugeno- type FuzzyInference System, (Takagi and Sugeno, 1985) which is the combination of a FIS and an Adaptive NeuralNetwork, was used in this study for rainfall-runoff modeling. The optimization method used is hybridlearning algorithms.For a first-order Sugeno model, a common rule set with two fuzzy if-then rules is as follows:
 Rule 1: If x
1
is A
1
and x
2
is B
1
 , then f 
1
= a
1
 x
1
+b
1
 x
2
+ c
1
.
 Rule 2: If x
1
is A
2
and x
2
is B
2
 , then f 
2
= a
2
 x
1
+b
2
 x
2
+ c
2
.
where,
 x
1
and
 x
2
are the crisp inputs to the node and
 A
1
 , B
1
 , A
2
 , B
2
 
are fuzzy sets,
a
i
 , b
i
 
and
c
i
 
(
i
= 1, 2) arethe coefficients of the first-order polynomial linear functions. Structure of a two-input first-order Sugenofuzzy model with two rules is shown in Figure 1 It is possible to assign a different weight to each rulebased on the structure of the system, where, weights
w
1
and
w
2
 
are assigned to rules 1 and 2 respectively.and
 f 
= weighted averageThe ANFIS consists of five layers (Jang, 1993), shown in Figure 1. The five layers of model are as follows:
Layer1:
Each node output in this layer is fuzzified by membership grade of a fuzzyset corresponding to each input.
O
1,i
 
=
 µ
 Ai
 
(
 x
1
)
i
= 1, 2or
O
1,i
 
=
 µ
 Bi-2
 
(
 x
2
)
i
= 3, 4(1)Where,
 x
1
and
 x
2
 
are the inputs to node
i
(
i
= 1, 2 for
 x
1
 
and
i
= 3, 4 for
 x
2
) and
 x
1
(or
 x
2
)
 
is the input to the
i
th
node and
 A
i
 
(or
 B
i-2
) is a fuzzy label.
Layer 2
: Each node output in this layer represents the firing strength of a rule, which performs fuzzy, ANDoperation. Each node in this layer, labeled
Π
,
 
is a stable node which multiplies incoming signals and sendsthe product out.
O
2,i
= W 
i
=
 µ
 Ai
(x
1
)
 µ
 Bi
(x
2
)
 
i
= 1, 2(2)
Layer 3:
Each node output in this layer is the normalized value of layer 2, i.e., the normalized firingstrengths.
i =
1, 2(3)
Layer 4:
Each node output in this layer is the normalized value of each fuzzy rule. The nodes in this layerare adaptive. Here
i
 
is the output of layer 3, and {
a
i
 ,b
i
 ,c
i
} are the parameter set. Parameters of this layerare referred to as consequence or output parameters.
www
iii
O
213
+==
 
Mathematical Theory and Modeling
 
www.iiste.org
 
ISSN 2224
-
5804 (Paper) ISSN 2225
-
0522 (Online)
 
Vol.1, No.3, 2011
 
3
i
= 1, 2
 
(4)
 
Layer 5
: The node output in this layer is the overall output of the system, which is the summation of allcoming signals.(5)Figure 1.ANFIS architectureIn this way the input vector was fed through the network layer by layer. The two major phases forimplementing the ANFIS for applications are the structure identification phase and the parameteridentification phase. The structure identification phase involves finding a suitable number of fuzzy rulesand fuzzy sets and a proper partition feature space. The parameter identification phase involves theadjustment of the premise and consequence parameters of the system.Optimizing the values of the adaptive parameters is of vital importance for the performance of the adaptive system. Jang et al. (1997) developed a hybrid learning algorithm for ANFIS to approximatethe precise value of the model parameters. The hybrid algorithm, which is a combination of gradientdescent and the least-squares method, consists of two alternating phases: (1) in the backward pass, the errorsignals recursively propagated backwards and the premise parameters are updated by gradient descent, and(2) least squares method finds a proper set of consequent parameters (Jang
et al
., 1997). In premiseparameters set for a given fixed values, the overall output can be expressed as a linear combination of theconsequent parameters.
 A
 
 X = B
(6)
 
Where,
 X 
is an unknown vector whose elements are the consequent parameters. A least squares estimator of X, namely
 X 
*
 ,
is chosen to minimize the squared error
  
.
Sequential formulas are employed tocompute the least squares estimator of 
 X.
For given fixed values of premise parameters, the estimatedconsequent parameters are known to be globally optimal.
2.2 Study Area and Model Application
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++==

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