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tekniksimulasi_peramalan02

tekniksimulasi_peramalan02

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Published by Eddy Purwoko

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Published by: Eddy Purwoko on Jan 27, 2012
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01/27/2012

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PERAMALAN (
Forecast 
) (ii)
Disajikan oleh:
Bernardus Budi Hartono
Web: http://pakhartono.wordpress.comE-mail: pakhartono at gmail dot combudihartono at acm dot org
Teknik Informatika [Gasal 2009 – 2010]
FTI - Universitas Stikubank Semarang
 
 
Peramalan (Forecast)
Menggunakan pendekatan secara matematisa. Analisis seri waktu (
time series analysis 
)a.1. metode rata-rata bergerak (
moving average method 
)a.1.1. rata-rata bergerak (
moving average method 
)a.1.2. rata-rata bergerak tertimbang(
weighted moving average method 
)a.2. metode penghalusan eksponensialsecara umum memberikan bobot lebih kuat pada data terakhir.a.2.1. Penghalusan eksponensial sederhana(
simple exponential smoothing 
)a.2.2. Penghalusan eksponensial yang disesuaikan(
adjusted exponential smoothing 
)b. Metode Regresi (
regression method 
)
 
 
a.2.1. Penghalusan eksponensial sederhana(
simple exponential smoothing 
)
Rumus ramalan penghalusan eksponensial sederhana: 
Ft+1=
α
Dt+ (1-
α
) Ft 
Ft+1= ramalan untuk periode berikutnya
α
= bobot atau konstanta penghalusDt= permintaan aktual (periode sekarang)Ft=
ramalan yang telah ditentukan sebelumnya (
periode sekarang
)
Contoh kasus
lihat Tabel 1.

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