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Table Of Contents

CONFLICT
Iraq’s History of Regional Conflict
Iran’s Religious and National Goals
Israel’s Struggle for Existence
MIDDLE EAST
Iraq’s Nuclear Program
Iran’s Nuclear Program
Israel’s Nuclear Program
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Missile Technology Control Regime
DEVELOPMENT
The Major Issues4
Iraqi Nuclear Development5
Iranian Nuclear Development6
Israeli Nuclear Development7
Perceptions of Major Issues1
Courses of Action2
Major Scenarios3
Action and Country Criteria
Assessment of Alternate Futures4
Future No. 1 (least likely)
Consequences, Focal Events, and Transposition1
Future Indicators2
CONCLUSION
Future Regional Stability
Treaties and Agreements
BIBLIOGRAPHY
P. 1
Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East

Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East

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Conflict in the Middle East: What Drives It?Where will it end? This study will provide the reader a significant understanding of the historic and current issues that drive the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and the potential for these factors to escalate into a nuclear conflict. The historic background provides an overview of the religious and regional issues that are the base cause for the animosity and aggression between these nations. The nuclear development, intent, and international posture are also reviewed. Concentrating on these main factors, the Lockwood method of numerical analysis is used to predict the most likely future events that could result in a nuclear conflict during the period of 2005 to 2020. This study concentrates on Iran, Iraq and Israel - the three main players in the future stability of the Middle East. An extensive bibliography is included for the reader who wishes further information on Middle East nuclear developments.
Conflict in the Middle East: What Drives It?Where will it end? This study will provide the reader a significant understanding of the historic and current issues that drive the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and the potential for these factors to escalate into a nuclear conflict. The historic background provides an overview of the religious and regional issues that are the base cause for the animosity and aggression between these nations. The nuclear development, intent, and international posture are also reviewed. Concentrating on these main factors, the Lockwood method of numerical analysis is used to predict the most likely future events that could result in a nuclear conflict during the period of 2005 to 2020. This study concentrates on Iran, Iraq and Israel - the three main players in the future stability of the Middle East. An extensive bibliography is included for the reader who wishes further information on Middle East nuclear developments.

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Publish date: Jan 9, 2007
Added to Scribd: Jan 27, 2012
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reservedISBN:9781467808545
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