EXERCISE

Problem 5.40
The station owner estimates that about 3.2 cars use the diesel pump every 2 hours.  = 3.2 cars/2 hour

(a) What is the probability that 3 cars will arrive during a 1 hour period. = 1.6 cars/hour P (X) =
X*

e-X

X!

P(3) =

(1.6)3 x e-1.6(where e = 2.718) 3! = 0.1378

(b) Find the probability that no cars will arrive during the half-n-hour period for which the owner needs to shut down the pump. = 0.8 cars/half hour P (X) =
X*

e-X

X!

P(0) = (0.8)0 x e-0.8 0! P(X=0) = 0.4493 (c) Find the probability of five or more cars arriving during one hour period given that 5 cars arrive during a 1 hour period. = 5 cars/hour

P(X 5) = 1- [P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)] From the Poisson Table, P(X 5) = 1 [0.0067+0.0337+0.0842+0.1404+0.1755] = 0.5595

Problem 5.44

Survey conducted for the Northwestern National Life Insurance Company revealed:

 70% of American workers say job stress caused health problems. p = 0.7  One in three expected to burn out in the job in near future. p = 0.33  34% thought seriously about quitting their job last year because of work place stress. p = 0.34  53% said they were required to work more than 40 hours a week or somewhat often. p = 0.53

(a) A random sample of 10 American workers was selected. What is the probability that more than seven of them say job stress caused health problems p=0.7, n = 10 P(X>7) = P(X=8)+P(X=9)+P(X=10) = 0.233 + 0.121 + 0.028 = 0.382 E(X) = n*p = 10*(0.7) = 7 = Expected number of workers who say so

(b) A random sample of 15 American workers was selected. What is the probability that none of the workers say they will burn out in the near future. p=0.33, n = 15 P(X=0) = 0.00246

E(X) = n*p = 15*(0.33) = 4.95 Expected number of workers who say so.

(c) A random sample of 7 American workers was selected. What is the probability that all seven say they are asked to work more than 40 hours a week. p= 0.53, n = 7 P(X=7) = 0.0117

x
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

P (x = x)

Problem 5.60
0.001238 0.010445 0.041128 0.100249 0.16917 0.209347 0.196263 0.14194 0.079841 0.034931 0.011789 0.003014 0.000565 0.000073 0.000006 0

Problem 5.61

0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

 Positively skewed, as probability of values greater than 8 is almost negligible.  = 2.78, therefore the values pile up at 2,3 and 4.

Problem 5.62

The distribution is close to symmetry.

p=0.64, n = 22 since p is close to o.5, it explains the reason for symmetry. E(X) = n*p = 14.08 therefore, the distribution has highest probability value 14.

Problem 6.47
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average annual salary in the metropolitan area is $45,970, with standard deviation of $4,264. A Boston area worker is randomly selected. Annual salaries is normally distributed. Mean, = $45,970, = $4,264 let annual salaries in metropolitan areas be X

A) What is probability that workers annual salary is more than $50,000 ? Find: p (X > 50,000) Z=X = 50000 45970 = 0.94912 4246

From Z table, probability = 0.3289 P (Z > 0.95) = 0.5 0.3289 = 0.1711

B) What is probability that workers annual salary is less than $40,000 ? Find: p (X < 40,000) Z=X = 40000 45970 = - 1.406 4246

From Z table, probability = 0.4207 P (Z < -1.41) = 0.5 0.4207 = 0.0793

C) What is probability that workers annual salary is more than $35,000 ? Find: p (X > 35,000) Z=X = 35000 45970 = - 2.58 4246

From Z table, probability = 0.4951 P (Z > -2.58) = 0.5 + 0.4951= 0.9951

D) What is probability that workers annual salary is between $39000 and than $47,000 ? Find: p (39000< X < 47,000) X = 39000 Z=X = 39000 45970 = - 1.64 4246 From Z table, probability = 0.0948 X = 47000 Z=X = 47000 45970 = 0.242 4246 From Z table, probability = 0.4495 P (-1.64<Z <0.242) = 0.0948 + 0.4495= 0.5443

Problem 6.49
The average speeds of passenger trains traveling from Newark, New Jersey, to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania are normally distributed, with mean average speed of 88 miles per hour and a standard deviation of 6.4 miles per hour. Mean = 88 miles/hour, = 6.4 miles/hour let average speed of trains be X

A) What is probability that a train will average less than 70 miles per hour ? Find: p (X < 70) Z=X = 70 88 = - 2.8125 6.4 From Z table, probability = 0.4975 P (Z < -2.81) = 0.5 - 0.4975= 0.0025

B) What is probability that a train will average more than 80 miles per hour ? Find: p (X > 80) Z=X = 80 88 = - 1.25 6.4 From Z table, probability = 0.3944 P (Z > -1.25) = 0.5 + 0.3944= 0.8944

C) What is probability that a train will average between 90 and 100 miles per hour ? Find: p (90< X < 100) X = 90 Z=X

= 90 88 = 0.312 6.4 From Z table, probability = 0.4699 X = 100 Z=X

= 100 88= 1.875 6.4 From Z table, probability = 0.1217 P (0.312<Z <1.875) = 0.4699+ 0.1217 = 0.3482

Question 4
Mean spending per customer is Rs 20,000, with a standard deviation of Rs.5,000 Mean =20,000, =5000

It does not want to give the incentive offer to more than 1% of customers, i.e., till 1%. On normal curve, 0.5 0.01 = 0.49 Z value corresponding to this area is 2.33

Z=X

= X 20000 = 2.33 5000

X = Rs. 31,650 the cut off should be at Rs. 31,650.  5 % customers qualified for the offer. Area on normal curve would be 0.5 0.05 = 0.45 Z value corresponding to this area is 1.65 Z=X = X 20000 = 1.65 5000

Z = 1.64 and X = 31,650  Case 1- Keeping Mean constant Z=X = 31650 20000 = 1.65

= RS. 7060.60  Case 2: Keeping the standard deviation constant = 31650 5000 Mean = RS. 23,400 Z=X = 1.65

THANK YOU