The IFS Green BudgetFebruary 2012
Stuart AdamMike BrewerJames BrowneRowena CrawfordCarl EmmersonEmla FitzsimonsAndrew GoodwinWenchao JinPaul JohnsonRobert JoyceHelen MillerDavid PhillipsDaniel RoggerAdam SlaterGeorge StoyeGemma Tetlow
Copy-editor:
Judith Payne
Editors:
Carl Emmerson, Paul Johnson and Helen MillerThe Institute for Fiscal Studies7 Ridgmount Street London WC1E 7AE
Published by
The Institute for Fiscal Studies7 Ridgmount Street London WC1E 7AETel: +44 (0) 20-7291 4800Fax: +44 (0) 20-7323 4780Email:mailbox@ifs.org.uk Website:http://www.ifs.org.uk
in collaboration with
Oxford EconomicsAbbey House121 St AldatesOxford OX1 1HBhttp://www.oxfordeconomics.com/
with support from
The Economic and Social Research CouncilPolaris HouseNorth Star AvenueSwindon SN2 1UJhttp://www.esrc.ac.uk/
Support from the ESRC-funded Centre for Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy(CPP, reference RES-544-28-5001) at IFS is gratefully acknowledged.
Printed by
Pureprint Group, Uckfield
© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, February 2012ISBN 978-1-903274-88-0
Preface
Welcome to the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ 2012 Green Budget. In the following pages, wediscuss some of the many issues confronting Chancellor George Osborne as he prepareshis third Budget. The weakness of the macroeconomy, the state of public finances and thepath of the proposed fiscal consolidation once again frame his options. With theindependent Office for Budget Responsibility significantly downgrading its growthforecasts since last year, the Chancellor looks to have harder choices than he did a yearago. Here we assess the fiscal position in both the short and the longer run, and set out some of the facts around spending and tax policy options, as well as some of thedilemmas.For the first time this year, we are delighted to be producing the Green Budget incollaboration with Oxford Economics. Andrew Goodwin and Adam Slater, both SeniorEconomists at Oxford Economics, have contributed chapters on the outlook for the UKeconomy and the global economy. We are very grateful for their involvement andsupport.We are extremely grateful to the Economic and Social Research Council for the funding it has provided to support this year’s Green Budget. We are also grateful for the continuingsupport that ESRC provides for our ongoing research work via the Centre for theMicroeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS. This underpins all our analysis in thisvolume.The Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Family Resources Survey (FRS) are CrownCopyright, and are reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and theQueen’s Printer for Scotland. The LFS is produced by the Office for National Statistics andthe FRS is produced by the Department for Work and Pensions; both are distributed bythe UK Data Archive (UKDA). We use data on 2011–12 local government budgetscompiled by the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) and theDepartment for Communities and Local Government (CLG). We are grateful to CIPFA foraccess to these data and for its help in using them. None of those organisations bears anyresponsibility for our analysis or interpretation.As with all IFS publications, the views expressed in it are those of the named authors of the particular chapters and not of the institute – which has no corporate views – or of thefunders of the research.Paul JohnsonDirector, Institute for Fiscal Studies
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