Office of the State Comptroller
Gross State Product
New York State’s economic growth is influencedby national economic trends. While the nationaleconomy rallied in the fourth quarter of 2011, IHSGlobal Insight forecasts that growth in the GrossDomestic Product will average only 2 percentduring 2012, as consumer and business spendingweaken and government spending contracts.New York’s Gross State Product (GSP) is alsoforecast to weaken in 2012, growing by only1.7 percent. Construction is forecast to contract,and the rate of growth is expected to slow sharplyin finance (which accounts for one-third of theState’s GSP), business services, education, andhealth services.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey(conducted by the Federal Reserve) examinesbusiness conditions at a sample of manufacturersacross New York State. The current surveyindicates that economic activity has improved inrecent months; in January 2012, it was at itshighest level in the past nine months. The surveyfound improvements in the level of new orders,shipments, employment, number of hoursemployees worked, and prices. Despite the year-end improvement, overall conditions were stillbelow levels experienced through most of 2010and early 2011.
Consumer confidence looked to be rebounding inearly 2011, but it quickly retreated to levels lastseen in early 2009. In the final months of 2011,consumer confidence improved sharply, but it stillremained far below prerecession levels.
State sales tax collections rose by 4.5 percent in2011.
New York City, which accounted for43 percent of statewide sales tax collections, hadstrong growth driven by a vibrant tourism sector.Other regions with tourism industries, such as theFinger Lakes and the Adirondacks, also had stronggrowth in State sales tax revenue. Growth wasweakest in the Lower Hudson Valley and LongIsland.
After adjusting for changes in the clothing exemption.
Home values across New York fell by about20 percent between 2006 and 2009, according tothe New York State Association of Realtors. Thestatewide median sales price rebounded by10 percent in 2010, but during the first 11 monthsof 2011, it rose by only 1.2 percent compared tothe same period one year earlier, and the numberof sales fell by 4.6 percent. In general, theresidential market showed improvement in mostupstate communities in 2011, but weakened inNew York City’s suburbs. For example, salesprices declined by 2.4 percent in Nassau Countyand 4.5 percent in Suffolk County, while they roseby 2.8 percent in Broome County and 11 percentin Madison County. Residential markets improvedin Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens, and thecommercial market strengthened in Manhattan.
As of December 2011, New York had regained183,600 (58 percent) of the private sector jobs lostduring the recession (see Figure 1), but most of those job gains occurred early in the recovery. Jobgrowth was weak in the second half of 2011, withthe State losing 11,200 private sector jobs sinceJuly 2011.Over the past two years, the government sector hasshed 29,300 jobs (1.9 percent) in response to fiscalpressures brought on by the recession, as well asthe loss of federal stimulus aid. More than two-thirds of the job losses have been in localgovernments across the State.Altogether, the State has regained 154,300 of the333,400 jobs that were lost in the recession, or46 percent. New York ranked 16th among the 50states in jobs regained, performing well above thenational average of 34 percent.
D e c - 0 9 F e b -1 0 A pr -1 0 J un-1 0 A u g-1 0 O c t -1 0 D e c -1 0 F e b -1 1 A pr -1 1 J un-1 1 A u g-1 1 O c t -1 1 D e c -1 1
Cumulative Change in New York StateEmployment Since December 2009
Sources: NYS Department of Labor; OSC analysis
T h o u s a n d s o f J o b s