NourielRoubiniisDocumented@DavosTranscriptDocumented@Davos2012
[MUSICPLAYING]RANDIZUCKERBERG:ThanksfortuningintoourDocumented@DavoscoveragefromtheWorldEconomicForum.MynameisRandiZuckerberg.AndwehavesucharareandwonderfultreattobesittingherewithNourielRoubini,economistandDavosman.HeisprobablythemostrequestedpersontositdownandspeakwithatthisWorldEconomicForum.Wealsohavealiveaudienceinthehouse.Youcan'tsee,butit'spackedinhererightnow.Sothankyousomuchforbeingwithushere.NOURIELROUBINI:It'sgreatbeingwithyoutoday.It'sagreatinitiative.It'ssuchapleasure.RANDIZUCKERBERG:Now,I'mthrilledthatwecanbringeveryone,throughsocialmedia,intotheexperienceofbeingatDavos.YouareveryactiveonTwitter.NOURIELROUBINI:Yeah.I'mveryactive.Itweetregularly.Ihaveabout130,000-plusfollowers.IhaveapageonFacebook,alsoapublicpage.SoIbelievealotinthepowerofsocialmedia.Soit'sgreattobehere.RANDIZUCKERBERG:NowmosteconomiststhatIfolloware--howshouldIsaythis--abitdryonsocialmedia.Butyou'refullofflavoronsocialmedia.Sothedoomeconomydoesn'tseemtobeaffectingyourpersonallifethatmuch.NOURIELROUBINI:Well,Ithinkthattobeeffectiveandsuccessfulinsocialmedia,youhavetohaveavoice.Ifyou'rejustsayingsomethingboringordry,you'rejustrepeatingsomecorporatespeechorwhatever,you'renotgoingtogetfollowers.Peoplearegoingtofollowyouwhenyouhavesomethingtosay.AndyouhavethechallengeonTwitterof140characterstosaysomethingpunchy.Sothat'showyougettobesuccessful.OrevenonFacebook,beingabletojust,say,pointedarguments.SoIbelievethat'sonewayofexpressingyourself.RANDIZUCKERBERG:Hopefully,morepublicfigureswilltakeyourleadthatway.NowwhatdoesthisweekatDavoslooklikeforyou?NOURIELROUBINI:Well,forme,ofcourse,I'mintonsofdifferentsessionsinwhichI'mafeaturedspeaker.Ihaveone-to-onemeetingswithlotsofcolleaguesandpeople.Idoasignificantamountofinterviews.Andit'sagreatplacewherepeople--menandwomenfromallovertheworld,notjustinthefieldofeconomicsandpolitics,butscience,socialmedia,internet--arecoming.
 
IjusthadameetingrightnowwithSeanParkerrightbeforethisthing.Andhetoldmeaboutaninitiativehewantsmetogetinvolvedwith.Sowegettodiscusslotsofinterestingthings.Andit'sacomplexworldinwhichlotsofthingsarehappening.Soit'sagreatplacetocome.RANDIZUCKERBERG:Andyoujustspokeataluncheonearliertoday,youweretellingme,"SeedsofDystopia."NOURIELROUBINI:Yeah.Ihadtoactuallycheckinthedictionarywhatdystopiawas,becauseIwasnotsureabouttheterm.Anddystopiaisjusttheoppositeofutopia.AndIthinkthatspeakingabouttheseedsofdystopiaisfittingofourtimes,wheretherealltheserisks.Therearemacroeconomic,financial,socialsourcesofriskanduncertainty,butalsofiscal,sovereign,regulation,taxation,political,geopoliticalpolicy.Sotherearelotsofthingsthatcangorightintheworld.Therearealsolotsofthingsthatcangowrong.Andunfortunately,recentlyhasbeenaworldlessofutopias.Andmanyoftheutopiasofthepast,whethersocialismorcommunismorother"isms,"havebeencollapsing.Andweliveinaworldinwhichwehavetohavearealitycheck.Andwehavetoworryaboutthethingsthatcangowrong.Somaybeweliveindystopictimes.Notverycheerful,butthesetimeslookalittlebitdystopic.RANDIZUCKERBERG:Eurozonehasbeenahottopichere.AngelaMerkelisspeakingtodayorhasalreadyspoken.Andyou'vebeenquotedsayingthatit'saslow-motiontrainwreck.Tellushowyoureallyfeel.NOURIELROUBINI:Well,IcometoEuropeeveryotherweek.ThereisarecessionintheEurozone,Greece,Ireland,Portugal,Italy,Spain.NowthisrecessionisspreadingtothecoreoftheEurozone.Theyhavecountriesthathaveproblemsoftoomuchpublicdebt,toomuchbudgetdeficits,toomuchprivatedebt,lackofeconomicgrowthaftertherecession,lackandlossofcompetitiveness,largetradedeficitsthatarenotfinanceableanymore.Andtheirpolicyresponsehasbeenmoreausterity.Butmoreausteritymeanswhat?Youraisetaxes.Youcutgovernmentspending.Soyou'rereducingdisposableincomeforspending.Andyou'rereducingdemandthroughreductionofgovernmentspending.Thatmakestherecessionworse.Soit'slikeaviciouscycle.Andit'sgettingtherecessionworse.AndinEurope,youneedtotalkmoreaboutgrowthandlessaboutausterity.Ifyoudon'thaveeconomicgrowth,eventuallythesocialandpoliticalbacklashagainstausterity--strikes,demonstrations--weakgovernmentsaregoingtocollapse.They'regoingtobecomeoverwhelming.
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