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Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2012

Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2012

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Published by amypeterson
Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for the first 10 months of 2011 continued to show strong growth, in line with BMI’s forecasts. Total arrivals for January-October came to 6,270,244, up by 8.47% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to figures from the central statistics agency, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). On current trends, this would indicate full-year arrivals of around 7.52mn, slightly below BMI’s estimate of 7.63mn. However, we choose to maintain our estimate, especially as the final two months of the year have historically been strong ones for Indonesian tourism arrivals. For 2011, we therefore maintain our target of nearly 9% growth in tourist arrivals.
Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for the first 10 months of 2011 continued to show strong growth, in line with BMI’s forecasts. Total arrivals for January-October came to 6,270,244, up by 8.47% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to figures from the central statistics agency, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). On current trends, this would indicate full-year arrivals of around 7.52mn, slightly below BMI’s estimate of 7.63mn. However, we choose to maintain our estimate, especially as the final two months of the year have historically been strong ones for Indonesian tourism arrivals. For 2011, we therefore maintain our target of nearly 9% growth in tourist arrivals.

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Published by: amypeterson on Feb 10, 2012
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03/25/2013

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Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2012
Published: January 2012
 
No of Pages: 67
 
Price: US$530
 Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for the first 10 months of 2011 continued to show strong growth, in line with
BMI’s forecasts. Total arrivals for January
-October came to 6,270,244, up by 8.47% year-on-year (y-o-y),according to figures from the central statistics agency, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). On current trends,this would indicate full-
year arrivals of around 7.52mn, slightly below BMI’s estimate of 7.63mn. However,
we choose to maintain our estimate, especially as the final two months of the year have historically beenstrong ones for Indonesian tourism arrivals. For 2011, we therefore maintain our target of nearly 9%growth in tourist arrivals.Looking at the most recent available monthly arrivals data, Singapore remained the main source marketfor tourists in October 2011, providing 95,787 arrivals over the month, an increase of 10% y-o-y. Otherkey markets were Australia (84,449 tourists; up by 18.4% y-o-y), Malaysia (83,401; up 13.2%), China(43,305; up 11.2%), Japan (35,007; up 6.6%) and South Korea (25,507; up 1.95%).The government remains committed to supporting the tourism industry, with Minister of Tourism Mari ElkaPangestu, appointed in October 2011, reaffirming the target of 8mn international tourist arrivals for 2012
at a tourism conference in Jakarta. BMI shares the government’s optimism, though, after two very strong
years of growth in 2010 and 2011, our core forecast is for Indonesia to consolidate recent gains with aslightly more measured rate of tourist arrival growth, to reach just under 7.9mn tourists by the end of 2012and a total of 8.72mn tourists by the end of 2015.Encouragingly for the sector, the government is taking steps to diversify away from traditional sourcemarkets in Europe, which are suffering economic difficulties. The Ministry of Tourism is reportedly lookingto refocus its marketing efforts to Australia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region,China, India, Russia and the Middle East.
BMI remains optimistic about the outlook for Indonesia’s tourism industry, which has weathered the
recent years of global economic slowdown and the concomitant drop in tourism demand much better thansome of its global peers.
Lombok Airport Opens
On October 1 2011, the new international airport at Lombok opened, replacing the old Selaparang Airport.The new airport, which reportedly cost US$108mn to build and was subject to many delays duringconstruction, will be able to handle wide-bodied aircraft such as the Boeing 767 and Airbus A330, so it isexpected to boost tourism flows to Lombok, which the Indonesian authorities are trying to develop as analternative destination to neighbouring Bali.Speaking at the opening of the airport, West Nusa Tenggara governor Zainul Majdi said he hopesMalaysian low-cost carrier AirAsia will soon offer flights to Lombok, with the airline reportedly looking tostart services to Lombok in 2012. The only foreign airline flying
to Lombok is Singapore’s Silk Air.
Bird flu Still A Threat
 
Although BMI is still upbeat about the outlook for Indonesian tourism over the forecast period to 2015,one threat to our forecasts remains any recurrence of a bird flu epidemic across the archipelago. InOctober 2011 there were three deaths, with a mother and her two children dying as a result of contractingthe H5N1 virus in Bangli, Bali province. To help the country deal with the disease, the World HealthOrganization (WHO) set up two isolation rooms, one in Tangerang and another in Jakarta, to help treatpatients. Eight more facilities are due to be set up across Indonesia funded by the EU.The danger posed by epidemics such as a recurrence of bird flu remains an intangible factor whengenerating our core forecast scenario for Indonesian tourism. Although it is to be hoped that the mostrecent outbreak has been contained, it does show that the risks from bird flu remain real and that touristsneed to take sensible precautions when travelling in infected areas.
Executive Summary 5SWOT Analysis 7Indonesia Tourism SWOT . 7Indonesia Political SWOT . 8Indonesia Economic SWOT . 9Indonesia Business Environment SWOT . 10Industry Forecast Scenario ... 11Arrivals .. 11Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015 11Accommodation . 12Table: Accommodation Data,2008-2015 13Expenditure .. 13Table: Expenditure Data,2008-2015 . 14Inbound Tourism 15Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 . 16Outbound Tourism 17Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 . 17Market Overview
 –
Travel 18Commercial Airlines 18Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 22Market Overview
 –
Hospitality 25Accommodation . 25H5N1 Virus Update 27Business Environment Outlook .. 28Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 28
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 29
 Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 29Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 30
Indonesia’s Security Risks 30
 City Terrorism Ratings .. 31Table: BMI Asia Pacific City Terrorism Index 32South Asia Security Overview . 33South Asia In A Global Context .. 33External Power Dynamics . 43The Outlook For South Asia .. 45

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