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Quantifying and Forecasting Uncertainty in Innovation Project Management - Dr. Jose A. Briones

Quantifying and Forecasting Uncertainty in Innovation Project Management - Dr. Jose A. Briones

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Published by Jose A. Briones
Product innovation has been described as the way out of today’s difficult business environment. The rate of success of development projects, in particular disruptive innovation projects remains too low. In this presentation we will discuss the use of @RISK and Probabilistic Decision Analysis in the management of innovation projects with high levels of uncertainty. The launch of the iPad is used as a case study
Product innovation has been described as the way out of today’s difficult business environment. The rate of success of development projects, in particular disruptive innovation projects remains too low. In this presentation we will discuss the use of @RISK and Probabilistic Decision Analysis in the management of innovation projects with high levels of uncertainty. The launch of the iPad is used as a case study

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Published by: Jose A. Briones on Feb 12, 2012
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved

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02/12/2012

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Jose A. Briones, Ph.D.SpyroTek Performance SolutionsTwitter: @Brioneja
 
Agenda
Problem Definition
New Framework for InnovationManagement
Discovery Driven Planning
Reverse Income Statement
The ³Flaw of Averages´
Probabilistic Decision Analysis
Case Study: Forecast of iPadSales
www.Brioneja.comTwitter: @Brioneja
 
I
ntroduction
Product innovation has been described as theway out of today¶s difficult businessenvironment.
The rate of success of development projects,in particular disruptive innovation projectsremains too low.
We believe that a reason for the low successrate is the erroneous application of analysismethods designed for incremental innovationlike NPV and DCF to projects with highlevels of uncertainty
www.Brioneja.comTwitter: @Brioneja

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