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PNPL 2011 Indiana

PNPL 2011 Indiana

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Published by: The American Security Project on Feb 14, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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Pay Now, Pay Later: Indiana
dmittedly, the eects o climatechange, a complex and intri-cate phenomenon, are dicultto predict with precision. Inormedscientic and economic projections, as we have used in our research, however,allow us to see that Indiana acessignicant losses in industries crucialto its economy i no action is taken.Moreover, data shows Indiana is poisedto benet rom the research, develop-ment, and distribution o renewableenergy technologies. Although Indi-ana’s green job market has steadily grown over the last decade, exceedingthe national average,
there is stillconsiderable room or expansion andcapitalization. Should we ail to takeaction, Indianans has much to lose.
Heavier precipitation, droughts, and warmer temperatures are projected to damageIndiana’s agriculture and tourism industries, cause ooding, drought and soil erosion, andcontaminate the water supply.
The yield rom corn crops, specically, is expected to dropby 10
- 42%.
 Severe storms and evaporation will likely cause the contaminants in Lake Michigan toincrease and its water levels to drop—potentially jeopardizing the value o the $4.6 billiondollars o shoreront real estate.
In 2007, at least 10% o Hoosiers were employed in trades that will be critical to the utureproduction o green technologies, such as wind and solar power.
According to a new study, a ailure to mitigate the efects o climate change could beginto cause serious gross domestic product and job losses within the next several decades.Between 2010 and 2050, it could cost Indiana $21.8 billion in GDP and over 130,000 jobs.*
Pay Later: The Cost o Inaction
By 2030, temperatures could increase by an estimated 3-4ºF insummer and 2ºF during winter.
Precipitation is projected to decreaseby 15% during the summer months,
 and extreme storms will increase inrequency and intensity.
Te conse-quences—heat waves, pests, watercontamination and disease, fooding,and drought—each take a toll on thestate’s many and varied industries andits economic security as a whole. Indi-ana’s agricultural sector will be amongthe most aected. Production levels,yields, and revenue will likely drop.Scorching heat waves and drought will also damage the state’s importanttourism and recreation industries.
Costs to the Agricultural Sector
Indiana will see more rainall in theorm o extreme storms, and less o the precipitation necessary or cropgrowth.
Flooding, tornadoes and extreme weather over a 7-day period in March 2009 cost nearly $15million in individual assistance.
  An increase in such events, causingboth direct and indirect costs, couldseriously damage Indiana’s gross stateproduct (GSP).
Indiana’s agricultural industrywill be among the most afected.Production levels, yields, andrevenue will likely drop. Scorchingheat waves and drought will alsodamage the state’s importanttourism and recreation industries.
It is predicted, that the Corn Belt—specically Indiana—will remain thebest place or the production o cornand soybeans, the state’s main crops.
 Projections regarding crop yields andmarket values vary. Nonetheless, thestate’s aggregate income is expected to,in all likelihood, experience billionsin agriculture losses.
 A National Wildlie Foundation study projectsa 42% decline in corn production by the end o the century.
However,the U.S. Global Change Research
*GDP numbers are based on a 0% discount rate. Job losses are measured in labor years, or entire years o ulltime employment. Backus, George et al., “Assessing the Near-erm Risk o Climate Uncertainty:Interdependencies among the U.S. States,” Sandia Report (Sandia National Laboratories, May 2010),141.
(accessed  March 23, 2011).
1100 New York Avenue, NW|Suite 710W|Washington, DC 20005 202.347.4267| 
Program (USGCRP) predicts a higheryield in northern Indiana—but,accordingly, lower prices and prots.In some southern regions o Indiana,USGCRP projects corn production will all by 10-20%,
signicant orsuch a crucial industry. In 2009, cornaccounted or almost 40% o Indiana’sagricultural revenue.
  Warmer weather and higher CO
levels will lengthen the growing season,potentially by an additional three tosix weeks by 2100.
Te increase inheat waves and severe storms, however,is likely to counter many o thesebenets, causing production levels toall.Pest inestation and disease will alsoincrease with warmer temperatures, which will harm production levels
 and require expensive pesticides that will decrease prots. Adaptation costs will require plant breeding basedon accurate climate orecasts. Tisincludes, but is not limited to, geneticengineering and modied plantingand harvesting dates.
 Climate change will directly aectone in our members o the Indiananlabor orce. Te manuacturing andrelated industries and the agricultural,orestry, shing, hunting, leisure, andhospitality sectors are most at risk.
 Combined, these industries made upover a third o Indiana’s 2008 GSP.
Costs to Tourism and Recreation
Indiana has $4.6 billion dollars o real estate on Lake Michigan. A study produced by Health Lakesand the Council o Great LakesIndustries ound that the shore is visited by two million people and sees three million swimming days;the tourism industry as a whole isresponsible or generating over $9billion each year.
Source: Pollin & Wicks-Lim
Source: Indiana Department o Workorce Development 
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Green Economy Jobs in Indiana Compared to the U.S. Total
U.S. TotalIn Indiana
Indianan LaborForce Projected tobe DirectlyAffected
1100 New York Avenue, NW|Suite 710W|Washington, DC 20005 202.347.4267| 
 Yet heavier rainall will increaseruno and lake contamination, whichalready plagues the Great Lakes. Teincreasing requency o severe stormsassociated with global warming isprojected to jeopardize this source o revenue or the state o Indiana.
In2007, 93% o Indiana’s beaches and14% o beach days were aected by pollution notications, up rom 52%and 3%, respectively, the year beore. At least 21% o the time, “storm-relatedruno” was reported to be part o thecause.
Furthermore, coastal realestate values vary directly with waterquality; i Lake Michigan’s watersbecome increasingly contaminated,property values will all.
Pay Now: The Benetso Taking Action
Between 1998 and 2007, Indiana saw agreen job growth o 17.9%—comparedto 1% overall decrease in jobs duringthis time. Green jobs in Indiananumbered 17,298 and companies 1,268in 2007—0.5% o the civilian labororce.
Tere is room or and benetsrom expansion, as well as the need orit.Electricity consumption accountsor most o Indiana’s emissions. TeMidwest region is responsible orroughly 25% o U.S. carbon emis-sions (5% o the global total)—the 5thlargest emitter worldwide.
Toughelectricity costs would rise in the evento mitigating legislation, Hoosierscurrently pay some o the lowestelectricity prices in the country,
at acost to their livelihoods and well-being.One study ound pollution rom powerplants to be responsible or nearly 900deaths in Indiana each year, a majority o which could be avoided given areduction in ne particle emissions(such as sulur dioxide). Power plantpollution, according to the study, isalso ound to be behind 845 hospitaladmissions and almost o 1,500 heartattacks.
 Indiana could attract an additional38,000 jobs and $3.1 billion ininvestment prots by moving to agreen economy. Te industrial sectorprovides Indiana with about one-thirdo its GSP. A shit to the manuac-ture o green, renewable technologies would not likely cause a drop in theemployment level. Indiana’s welders,electricians, and industrial machinery mechanics—just to name a ew—arelikely to be as necessary as they ever were. For example, in 2007 Indianaemployed nearly 3% o the electricalequipment assemblers in the UnitedStates; this skill set is required in theproduction o solar and wind power.
Heavier rainall will increase runof and lake contamination, whichalready plagues the Great Lakes. The increasing requency o severestorms associated with climatechange is projected to jeopardizethis source o revenue or the state o Indiana.
Not only will these products be avail-able or export to other states, butIndiana can also greatly benet romdistributing the energy internally.Not taking into account out-o-stateproviders, 96% o Indiana’s electricity is currently generated by coal, greatly exceeding the U.S. average o 50%.Mercury, released largely by coal-redelectricity plants, contaminates thealready vulnerable water supply and isespecially harmul to pregnant womenand children.
 Fortunately, the state has the capacity to provide solar power generated elec-tricity to 1,100 households annually.Moreover, Indiana produces 18.6million tons o biomass annually, which can potentially produce 3,700MW o electricity.
Indiana must consider action onclimate change not just in terms o cost, but also in terms o opportuni-ties. I we give Indiana’s population,businesses, and investors clear and

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