AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT
Pay Now, Pay Later: Indiana
dmittedly, the eects o climatechange, a complex and intri-cate phenomenon, are dicultto predict with precision. Inormedscientic and economic projections, as we have used in our research, however,allow us to see that Indiana acessignicant losses in industries crucialto its economy i no action is taken.Moreover, data shows Indiana is poisedto benet rom the research, develop-ment, and distribution o renewableenergy technologies. Although Indi-ana’s green job market has steadily grown over the last decade, exceedingthe national average,
there is stillconsiderable room or expansion andcapitalization. Should we ail to takeaction, Indianans has much to lose.
Heavier precipitation, droughts, and warmer temperatures are projected to damageIndiana’s agriculture and tourism industries, cause ooding, drought and soil erosion, andcontaminate the water supply.
The yield rom corn crops, specically, is expected to dropby 10
Severe storms and evaporation will likely cause the contaminants in Lake Michigan toincrease and its water levels to drop—potentially jeopardizing the value o the $4.6 billiondollars o shoreront real estate.
In 2007, at least 10% o Hoosiers were employed in trades that will be critical to the utureproduction o green technologies, such as wind and solar power.
According to a new study, a ailure to mitigate the efects o climate change could beginto cause serious gross domestic product and job losses within the next several decades.Between 2010 and 2050, it could cost Indiana $21.8 billion in GDP and over 130,000 jobs.*
Pay Later: The Cost o Inaction
By 2030, temperatures could increase by an estimated 3-4ºF insummer and 2ºF during winter.
Precipitation is projected to decreaseby 15% during the summer months,
and extreme storms will increase inrequency and intensity.
Te conse-quences—heat waves, pests, watercontamination and disease, fooding,and drought—each take a toll on thestate’s many and varied industries andits economic security as a whole. Indi-ana’s agricultural sector will be amongthe most aected. Production levels,yields, and revenue will likely drop.Scorching heat waves and drought will also damage the state’s importanttourism and recreation industries.
Costs to the Agricultural Sector
Indiana will see more rainall in theorm o extreme storms, and less o the precipitation necessary or cropgrowth.
Flooding, tornadoes and extreme weather over a 7-day period in March 2009 cost nearly $15million in individual assistance.
An increase in such events, causingboth direct and indirect costs, couldseriously damage Indiana’s gross stateproduct (GSP).
Indiana’s agricultural industrywill be among the most afected.Production levels, yields, andrevenue will likely drop. Scorchingheat waves and drought will alsodamage the state’s importanttourism and recreation industries.
It is predicted, that the Corn Belt—specically Indiana—will remain thebest place or the production o cornand soybeans, the state’s main crops.
Projections regarding crop yields andmarket values vary. Nonetheless, thestate’s aggregate income is expected to,in all likelihood, experience billionsin agriculture losses.
A National Wildlie Foundation study projectsa 42% decline in corn production by the end o the century.
However,the U.S. Global Change Research
*GDP numbers are based on a 0% discount rate. Job losses are measured in labor years, or entire years o ulltime employment. Backus, George et al., “Assessing the Near-erm Risk o Climate Uncertainty:Interdependencies among the U.S. States,” Sandia Report (Sandia National Laboratories, May 2010),141.
(accessed March 23, 2011).