tea party momentum

Activist Insights Report: Market research report one of three on the evolution and sustainability of the Tea Party movement

alliance

400 West Erie Street, Suite 407 Chicago, Illinois 60654 312.920.0080

08/01/2010

Shakespeare tells us, there is a tide in human affairs , an opportunity which wise men carefully watch for .

Samuel Adams July 15, 1777

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Tea Party Momentum............................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 2 Research and Analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Insight Areas ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Takeaways ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Appendices .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 Appendix 1: Survey Data ....................................................................................................................... 11 Appendix 2: Tea Party Timeline .......................................................................................................... 24

"I became scared of my government." Next Wave activist

alliance

August 4, 2010

Dear Friend,

A wave of citizen activism has rolled across our nation over the last eighteen months. This wave signals the lifting of a decades-old political depression that resulted in the rise of a powerful political class and a weakened role for citizens. As we approach the height of the election season, there will be much discussion about the ripple effects of this new breed of political activists, and the Sam Adams Alliance (SAM) seeks to facilitate further understanding about the state of activism.

Following our study, Early Adopters: Reading the Tea Leaves, SAM has taken a deep dive into the Next Wave of activists. We set out to learn answers to three questions central to the political conversation: 1. What is the level of momentum behind the wave of citizen activism?

2. How are Early Adopters, veteran activists, and the Next Wave interacting? 3. Why are some citizens beached on the shore rather than riding the waves of activism?

The Next Wave: A Surf Report is the first of three reports to address these issues that will be released before the fall elections. In A Surf Report, the SAM team gauges the levels of momentum behind the Tea Party movement. We learn the sources of entrants and channels to entry into the Tea Party. And, finally we begin to understand the roles of the Next Wave of activists in the broader movement.

It is an exciting time to be an American and to be working to support the rising demand for freedom among our fellow citizens. We appreciate your support and continued interest in our work. Sincerely,

Yvonne B. Ralsky Executive Director, Sam Adams Alliance

400 West Erie, Suite 407 Chicago, Illinois 60654 P 312.920.0080 www.samadamsalliance.org

"Our Republic needs 'We the People' to bring it back to the vision of The Founders." Next Wave activist

TEA PARTY MOMENTUM

The ranks of the Tea Party movement in late summer 2010 are swollen with the influx of new entrants and increased enthusiasm, even after the movements failure to stop the passage of health-care legislation. This report finds that the Next Wave of Tea Partiers have joined up with many of the same motivations and aspirations as their Early Adopters predecessors, and yet do not share wholly similar opinions, ideological origins, or demographics. Understanding the impact this Next Wave hasand likely will continue to have on the broader Tea Party movement, its longevity, and its sustainability, will provide insight into the changes that are occurring in the United States broader political landscape. The Next Wave: A Surf Report reveals that: Tea Party momentum is building: 74.5 percent of Next Wavers said the movement is gaining active supporters and 66 percent indicated that the movement is more enthusiastic. There was a nearly 30-point drop among Tea Party activists in their affiliation with the Republican brand. There is a decrease in Republican sources of entrants to the Tea Parties and an increase in independents: 20 percent of Next Wavers were independents prior to the Tea Parties (compared with 12.6 percent of Early Adopters that were independents) and 74 percent of Next Wavers were Republicans prior, compared to 81 percent of Early Adopters. The longer a Tea Party activist is in the movement, the more likely they are to be optimistic about the political landscape. Of those who were inspired by an individual to join the Tea Party movement, 63.6 percentthe largest numbercited a friend as being instrumental in their involvement. Only 37.5 percent of Early Adopters were recruited by friends. Rather, media personalities brought the highest number into the movement. 89.3 percent of Tea Party activists have been active in introducing new people into the movement. Both Early Adopters and Next Wave activists were new to politics; 40.5 percent of Early Adopters and 43.6 percent of Next Wave activists said they were uninvolved/rarely involved with politics prior to their Tea Party involvement.

INTRODUCTION
In May 2010, just one month after healthcare legislation was signed into law, SAM surveyed Tea Party leaders from across the country to determine their reaction to this news. The results from the survey were surprisingof the 159 Tea Party activists surveyed, 85.5 percent said they noticed the addition of new activists in their community post health-care legislation. Most of these leaders viewed the activists to be motivated by the same issues as they were, and 71 percent believed them to be just as enthusiastic, or more so, than themselves. This evidence that (at least according to Tea Party leaders) their defeat on healthcare legislation not only had failed to slow the momentum of the Tea Party, but had instead energized it, formed the basis for The Next Wave reports hypothesis: New entrants have joined the Tea Parties and are adding momentum and altering the makeup and longevity of the movement through their involvement. For the purposes of this report: Early Adopters are Tea Party activists who joined the movement prior to the health-care debate of 2009; those who joined the Tea Parties after this debate are referred to as Next Wavers. The objectives of The Next Wave report were to collect survey data to determine if there was an influx of Tea Party activists and, if so, how they differ from Early Adopters, what impact this movement as a whole will have on the political landscape, and what the addition of new entrants to the movement says about its long-term sustainability. The Next Wave: A Surf Report is part one of a three-part series that explores the current state of the Tea Party movement.

"My sonhe's heard me talk about issues for years. He encouraged me to start speaking at events. That's what I've been doing for the last year." Next Wave activist

RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

METHODOLOGY To get a closer look at the Next Wave of Tea Party activists, Sam Adams Alliance surveyed 222 Tea Party supporters, including 159 Early Adopters and 51 Next Wave activists (the remaining respondents were not germane to our research). Because of the decentralized nature of the Tea Party, determining the size of the entire population of activists to determine the sample size for statistical significance was daunting. Therefore, this survey is limited to providing insight into a large sample of Tea Party activists who span both the Early Adopters and Next Wave activist segments. We cannot claim to represent the entire population given the difficulty of randomly sampling the population. New Entrants The early stages of the Tea Parties attracted many Early Adopters into its ranks who were eager to engage in activismoften for the first time. But many current Tea Partiers did not activate their involvement until much later. For the purposes of this study, these new entrants are defined as activists who joined the movement post-May 2009. The first question SAM tackled was why Next Wave activists had waited to engage in the movement. It seems that Next Wavers took longer to reach their boiling point, or the point at which they began to affiliate as a Tea Partier. While many of the same events that had inflamed Early Adopters to actionRick Santellis February 2009 rant and Glenn Becks 9/12 Projectalso sparked Next Wavers interest in the movement, the majority of Next Wavers were slower to become actively involved; most joined the movement between August and September 2009. When asked why they hadnt joined the movement prior to this time, 28 percent indicated that they had been too busy, followed by 24 percent who were unaware of the movement. Only 2 percent said that they didnt want to be affiliated with the movement, and none of the respondents indicated that the message conflicted with my values. These new entrants (42.9 percent) were also less likely to have a very favorable view of the Tea Party movement prior to their involvement, compared to the Early

INSIGHT AREAS The data collected revealed several key insights about the state of the Tea Party in late summer 2010. Now having moved beyond being a nascent movement, they are adjusting issue priorities and goals as the political climate changes. The Tea Parties of late summer 2010 continue to welcome newcomers into the movement, largely sourced from family and friend connections. This influx of talent and enthusiasm has cauterized tensions with the Republican brand, and given the movement a stronger position from which to influence the political landscape.

political affiliation prior to Tea Party involvement

Early Adopters

current political affiliation

Independent/ Unaffiliated 16%

Early Adopters

Republican 81%

Independent/ Unaffiliated 13% Other 2% Democratic 1% Libertarian 3%

Republican 51%

Other 11%

Tea Party 14% Libertarian 8%

political affiliation prior to Tea Party involvement

Next Wave

current political affiliation

Independent/ Unaffiliated 22%

Next Wave

Independent/ Unaffiliated 20% Republican 74% Other 2% Democratic 4%

Republican 50%

Other 10%

Democratic 2%

Tea Party 10% Libertarian 6%

Tea Partiers Active in Recruiting

Tea Partiers 89.3% Early Adopters 94.9% Next Wave

72.0%

Adopters (54.7 percent), which suggests that some negative perceptions of the movement affected Next Wave activists. The levels of current political involvement are different for Early Adopters and Next Wave activists. A plurality of Early Adopters appear to sustain a very involved activism, with 54.1 percent gauging this to be their level. Next Wave activists are more likely to say they are involved (49 percent), with 29.4 percent saying they are very involved. This is mirrored in data about the number of events both segments have attended; most Early Adopters have attended more than ten Tea Party events (49.7 percent) while Next Wave activists were more likely to have attended between one and three events. Most Next Wave activists did hold the same positions on issues and on the general health and sustainability of the movement, their positions just werent as strongly advocated. Both groups ranked budget as the single most important issue facing them today, followed by the economy. Defense and immigration were also important issue areas, showing up in both segments top five very important issues. The fact that Next Wave activists hold similar points-of-view and were motivated to join the Tea Parties by many of the same reasons demonstrates both that there is a sustainable message that the movement supplies, but that this message has not extended to recruit new entrants beyond the original values of the Tea Parties.

former Republicans' new political affiliation

Other 12% Independent/ Unaffiliated 29%

Early Adopters

Libertarian 16%

Tea Party 43%

former Republicans' new political current affiliation

Other 20%

Next Wave

Libertarian 13%

Independent/ Unaffiliated 47%

Tea Party 20%

former Republicans' new political affiliation

Other 14% Independent / Unaffiliated 33% Libertarian 15%

All Tea Partiers

Tea Party 38%

Tea Partiers' 2012 Presidential Picks

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Tea Partiers Early Adopters Next Wave

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Level of Momentum: Recruitment and Energy As the movement continues to grow, how it does so and where their new entrants come from can provide insight into the health of the movement itself. And the momentum of their movement, questioned by some, appears to continue to thrive; yet questions of the diversity of its base leave prospects of the movements continued expansion unclear. The Tea Parties have been able to successfully recruit new entrants: 49.5 percent of Tea Party activists have brought ten or more individuals into the Tea Parties. There also appears to be a positive emotional correlation associated with length of time in the Tea Party movement. The longer Tea Party activists had been involved, the more likely they were to be optimistic about the future. For both segments, they indicated that concern, [lack of] optimism, and [lack of] confidence were the emotions they felt most strongly with regards to the political landscape.

And while the Next Wave continues to attract new entrants, self-described Caucasians continue to be the primary demographic for growth. Of those Early Adopters surveyed, the majority were between the ages of 5160 and 85.2 percent are Caucasian, 3.5 percent Hispanic, and 10.6 percent chose not to disclose. Most Next Wave activists fell into either the 4150 age group (28.3 percent) or 6070 years old (30.4 percent) and 88.9 percent self-identified as Caucasian.

Brand Wars: Republican Flight In 2004, 96.9 percent of Tea Party activists surveyed said they voted for George W. Bush. In late summer 2010, only 50.7 percent say they now affiliate themselves with the Republican Party. This was a remarkable drop, underscored by the fact that 79.5 percent of Tea Party activists affiliated with the Republican brand prior to their Tea Party involvement. This Republican Flight left the Party with a loss of 28.8 percent in brand affiliation. So where did they go?

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Of the Republicans who disaffiliated from the Republican Party, 38 percent now affiliate with the Tea Party and 33 percent as independent. Tea Party activists opinion of the national Republican Party and its legislators, especially when compared to the state level, paints a deeper picture of this disenchantment; 49. 2 percent of Tea Party activists view the Republican Party at the national level very unfavorably/ unfavorably. They are not quite as negative about the Republican Party at the state level, with 38.7 percent feeling very unfavorably/unfavorably. The Tea Party activists appear to be disassociating themselves rapidly from the Republican brand, and it isnt just the current cast of politicians. Only 47 percent view Former President George W. Bush very favorably/favorably. But when it comes to the Tea Party term, most are content with that branding: 56.3 percent are satisfied with Tea Party, and an additional 25 percent indicate that they are very satisfied.

selecting her as their choice for the 2012 president elections, 9.2 percent selecting Mitt Romney, and 8.7 percent selecting New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Newt Gingrich trailed at position four, garnering 7.7 percent of Tea Party activists support. Interestingly, there was a stark divide between Early Adopters and Next Wavers when it came to Palin. More of her support came from Early Adopters than Next Wavers, 53.9 to 46.1 percent, respectively. The Tea Partiers arent just optimistic about their countrys chances; 52.1 percent believe that the Tea Party movement will be a force in American politics indefinitely, and 33 percent believe their impact will last through the 2010 elections. Insight into how this political impact might occur has already been evidenced in their interaction with primaries. And when surveyed, 32.6 percent indicated that antiincumbent describes them very well. Combined with restoring, and forwardthinking, which were also selected as describing them very well, the Tea Parties clearly see themselves as contributing to the political landscape by bringing what they feel is best about Americas past and matching it with a solution that meets their future priorities.

Political Impact As the political landscape has changed over the past year, so have the political priorities and aspirations of the Tea Parties. Whereas in our report, Early Adopters: Reading the Tea Leaves, we found that immigration wasnt a top priority for Tea Party leaders, it now appears to have moved under both the Early Adopters and Next Wave activists umbrella of priorities. Sarah Palin continues to win over the votes of the Tea Party activists, with the highest percentage (22.6 percent)

TAKEAWAYS
It appears to be clear that the Tea Party has expanded its numbers by peer-to-peer recruitment and by continuing to offer a message that appeals to Americans intent on taking responsibility for ensuring that their political ends are accomplished. Their flight from the Republican label while maintaining a loyalty to supporting its presidential candidates indicates that the Tea Parties are concentrating their political might in a position outside - yet related to traditional Republican policies. Their base of new entrants is attracting more independents than Republicans, which indicates that those who havent endorsed a party within the American two-party system may find an affinity for the Tea Partys unique position. However, that base is also demographically skewed toward self-identified older Caucasian men. If the Tea Party movement seeks to continue to expand, they may have to find ways to reach beyond these demographics. The Next Wave: A Surf Report is part one of a three-part series on the Next Wave that Sam Adams Alliance will be releasing prior to November 2010. Stay tuned for The Next Wave: Surface Tension, which explores the interactions between establishment political players and the Tea Party newcomers, as well as a third investigation, The Next Wave: Barriers to Entry, that seeks to understand why those who share the same values as the Tea Partiers have not embraced the movement.

"When the colonies saw the

common danger, they

at the same time saw their

mutual dependence, and

mutually called in the assistance of each other; and I dare say such friendships

and connections are

established between them as shall for the future deter the

most virulent enemy from

making another open attack upon their rights as men and subjects.

Samuel Adams

www.activistinsightsreport.com

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The Repulican Party has abandoned its basic values to politics. Next Wave activist

APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1: SURVEY DATA

Early Adopters, n=159; Next Wave, n=51 Answer Options

How would you rank your current level of political involvement? Uninvolved Rarely involved Somewhat involved Involved Very involved answered question skipped question 0.0% 1.3% 12.6% 32.1% 54.1% 159 0 Early Adopters 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 49.0% 29.4% 51 0 Next Wave

How would you rank your level of political involvement prior to becoming a Tea Partier? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters Uninvolved Rarely involved Somewhat involved Involved Very Involved answered question skipped question Answer Options 19.6% 20.9% 29.7% 18.4% 11.4% 158 1 21.6% 21.6% 39.2% 13.7% 3.9% 51 0

How would you describe your current political party affiliation? Democratic Green Libertarian Republican Tea Party Independent / Unaffiliated Other (please specify) answered question skipped question 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 50.9% 14.5% 15.7% 10.7% 159 0 Early Adopters 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 50.0% 10.0% 22.0% 10.0% 50 1 Next Wave

What was your political party affiliation prior to becoming involved with the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters Democratic Green Libertarian Republican Independent / Unaffiliated Other (please specify) answered question skipped question 1.3% 0.0% 3.1% 81.1% 12.6% 1.9% 159 0 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.0% 20.0% 2.0% 50 1

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Early Adopters Please rate your levels of the following when thinking broadly about today's political landscape (one being the least and ten being the most) Answer 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Unsure Rating Response Options Average Count Optimism 22.7% 13.3% 12.0% 10.0% 12.0% Anger 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% Frustration 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% Interest 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.7% Concern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Confidence 20.1% 12.1% 14.1% 7.4% 15.4% answered question skipped question 9.3% 0.7% 2.6% 0.7% 1.9% 8.7% 7.3% 6.0% 2.7% 2.7% 3.3% 15.7% 17.0% 52.3% 1.3% 9.3% 19.2% 60.3% 2.0% 8.0% 11.3% 72.7% 0.6% 2.6% 7.1% 85.8% 3.4% 8.1% 3.4% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.7% 3.99 8.66 8.99 9.45 9.78 4.22 150 153 151 150 155 149 158 1

Early Adopters Please rate your levels of the following when thinking broadly about today's political landscape (one being the least and ten being the most) Answer 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Unsure Rating Response Options Average Count Optimism 31.4% 15.7% 5.9% 11.8% 13.7% 9.8% Anger 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.8% 7.8% Frustration 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% Interest 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.9% 5.9% Concern 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% Confidence 33.3% 9.8% 7.8% 7.8% 11.8% 17.6% answered question skipped question Answer Options 3.9% 0.0% 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% 13.7% 15.7% 45.1% 5.9% 7.8% 21.6% 51.0% 7.8% 7.8% 19.6% 51.0% 2.0% 7.8% 11.8% 70.6% 5.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.46 8.29 8.65 8.69 9.18 3.67 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 0

What was your impression of the Tea Party movement prior to your involvement? Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Neutral Somewhat favorable Very favorable Not Applicable answered question skipped question 13.8% 1.9% 8.8% 8.8% 54.7% 11.9% 159 0 Early Adopters 8.2% 2.0% 12.2% 32.7% 42.9% 2.0% 49 2 Next Wave

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Was there a particular event that motivated your initial involvement in the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters The Stimulus and/or Rick Santellis rant (February 2009) The 9-12 Project (March 2009) The healthcare reform debate (Late 2009 / Early 2010) Arizona immigration reform (April / May 2010) 2010 elections No particular event Other (please specify) answered question skipped question Answer Options 20.1% 3.8% 42.8% 0.6% 1.9% 11.9% 18.9% 159 0 7.8% 13.7% 21.6% 0.0% 7.8% 19.6% 29.4% 51 0

When did you initially get involved in the Tea Party movement? Before February 2009 February - March 2009 April - May 2009 June - July 2009 August - September 2009 October - November 2009 December 2009 - January 2010 February - March 2010 April - May 2010 June - July 2010 answered question skipped question 23.3% 49.7% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 159 0 Early Adopters 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 23.5% 13.7% 13.7% 9.8% 13.7% 5.9% 51 0 Next Wave

Why didn't you get involved with the Tea Party movement until this time? (check all that apply) Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters I've been active in the Tea Party movement from the beginning Unaware of the movement Unclear of the objectives of the movement Didn't want to be affiliated with the movement Lack of urgency Too busy Message conflicted with my values Unsure / Other (please specify) answered question skipped question 27.0% 6.3% 0.6% 5.7% 5.0% 0.0% 10.1% 159 0 55.3% 24.0% 20.0% 2.0% 12.0% 28.0% 0.0% 26.0% 50 1 2.0%

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How many Tea-Party-related events have you attended? Answer Options 0 1-3 4-6 7-10 More than 10 answered question skipped question Answer Options 1.9% 14.5% 22.0% 11.9% 49.7% 159 0 Early Adopters 13.7% 35.3% 21.6% 7.8% 21.6% 51 0 Next Wave

How many Tea-Party-related events have you organized or helped organize? 0 1-3 4-6 7-10 More than 10 answered question skipped question 32.7% 28.3% 11.3% 3.8% 23.9% 159 0 Early Adopters 58.0% 24.0% 6.0% 2.0% 10.0% 50 1 Next Wave

Was a specific organization instrumental in getting you involved in the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters Yes No answered question skipped question 39.5% 60.5% 157 2 43.1% 56.9% 51 0

Was one or more person(s) instrumental in getting you involved in the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters Yes No answered question skipped question 41.8% 58.2% 158 1 45.1% 54.9% 51 0

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Who specifically motivated you to become involved in the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Family member(s) Friend(s) Media personality(ies) Politician(s) Other(s) answered question skipped question Early Adopters 15.6% 37.5% 39.1% 7.8% 21.9% 64 95 Next Wave 0.0% 63.6% 13.6% 13.6% 18.2% 22 29

Early Adopters Please characterize the importance of the following reason(s) for getting involved with the Tea Party movement: Answer Options Not Somewhat Important Very Response important important important Count To become politically involved To express my anger/frustration To be part of a community To stand up for my beliefs To learn about current events To influence elections To influence policy answered question skipped question 11.3% 4.8% 8.2% 1.6% 11.3% 3.2% 3.3% 12.9% 14.5% 14.8% 1.6% 14.5% 3.2% 0.0% 27.4% 21.0% 42.6% 4.8% 24.2% 19.4% 10.0% 48.4% 59.7% 34.4% 92.1% 50.0% 74.2% 86.7% 62 62 61 63 62 62 60 63 96

Next Wave Please characterize the importance of the following reason(s) for getting involved with the Tea Party movement: Answer Options Not Somewhat Important Very Response important important important Count To become politically involved To express my anger/frustration To be part of a community To stand up for my beliefs To learn about current events To influence elections To influence policy answered question skipped question Answer Options 4.5% 18.2% 13.6% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 9.1% 22.7% 0.0% 22.7% 9.1% 5.0% 50.0% 31.8% 36.4% 27.3% 36.4% 27.3% 30.0% 36.4% 40.9% 27.3% 72.7% 36.4% 63.6% 65.0% 22 22 22 22 22 22 20 22 29

Have you been active in introducing new people into the Tea Party movement? Yes No answered question skipped question Early Adopters 94.9% 5.1% 156 3 Next Wave 72.0% 28.0% 50 1

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Approximately how many people have you successfully introduced into the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters None 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 9 10 or more answered question skipped question 0.0% 22.6% 22.6% 2.1% 52.7% 146 13 5.6% 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 36.1% 36 15

Early Adopters How important to you were the following issues prior to your involvement with the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Unimportant Somewhat Important Very Response important important Count Defense Immigration Education Trade Health Care Budget Environment/Climate Change Economy/Jobs answered question skipped question 2.6% 4.6% 7.8% 15.7% 27.5% 4.6% 61.4% 2.0% 6.5% 17.8% 31.4% 37.9% 28.1% 16.3% 22.9% 15.0% 26.1% 20.4% 28.1% 24.2% 19.6% 27.5% 2.6% 34.0% 64.7% 57.2% 32.7% 22.2% 24.8% 51.6% 13.1% 49.0% 153 152 153 153 153 153 153 153 154 5

Next Wave How important to you were the following issues prior to your involvement with the Tea Party movement? Answer Options Unimportant Somewhat Important Very Response important important Count Defense Immigration Education Trade Health Care Budget Environment/Climate Change Economy/Jobs answered question skipped question 0.0% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 20.8% 2.1% 45.8% 2.1% 8.3% 16.7% 29.2% 27.1% 31.3% 10.4% 31.3% 18.8% 27.1% 25.0% 35.4% 39.6% 8.3% 33.3% 10.4% 25.0% 64.6% 50.0% 27.1% 25.0% 39.6% 54.2% 12.5% 54.2% 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 3

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Early Adopters How important to you are the following issues today? Answer Options Unimportant Somewhat Important Very Response important important Count Defense Immigration Education Trade Health Care Budget Environment/Climate Change Economy/Jobs answered question skipped question 0.6% 1.3% 4.6% 4.0% 4.6% 0.0% 46.7% 0.0% 1.9% 3.3% 17.0% 22.5% 9.2% 0.7% 17.8% 1.3% 13.6% 8.6% 21.6% 26.5% 9.9% 2.6% 6.6% 10.5% 83.8% 86.8% 56.9% 47.0% 76.3% 96.7% 28.9% 88.2% 154 151 153 151 152 153 152 153 154 5

Next Wave How important to you are the following issues today? Answer Options Unimportant Somewhat Important Very Response important important Count Defense Immigration Education Trade Health Care Budget Environment/Climate Change Economy/Jobs answered question skipped question Answer Options 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 41.7% 0.0% 6.1% 4.1% 20.8% 6.4% 8.3% 0.0% 18.8% 2.0% 18.4% 20.4% 33.3% 42.6% 12.5% 8.2% 12.5% 14.3% 75.5% 75.5% 43.8% 46.8% 77.1% 91.8% 27.1% 83.7% 49 49 48 47 48 49 48 49 49 2

In your opinion, is there one clear leader of the Tea Party movement? Yes No answered question skipped question Answer Options Early Adopters 3.9% 96.1% 153 6 Next Wave 4.2% 95.8% 48 3

In your opinion, SHOULD there be one clear leader of the Tea Party movement? Yes No answered question skipped question Early Adopters 9.8% 90.2% 153 6 Next Wave 6.3% 93.8% 48 3

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Early Adopters How favorably or unfavorably do you view the following: Answer Options Very Unfavorably Neither unfavorably favorably nor unfavorably Democratic legislators (national 94.7% 3.9% 0.7% level) Democratic legislators (state 80.8% 15.9% 2.6% level) Republican legislators (national 11.8% 31.6% 23.0% level) Republican legislators (state 6.7% 24.0% 26.7% level) answered question skipped question Next Wave How favorably or unfavorably do you view the following: Answer Options Very Unfavorably Neither unfavorably favorably nor unfavorably Democratic legislators 91.7% 8.3% 0.0% (national level) Democratic legislators (state 62.5% 29.2% 8.3% level) Republican legislators 8.3% 37.5% 27.1% (national level) Republican legislators (state 8.3% 29.2% 25.0% level) answered question skipped question

Favorably Very Not favorably sure 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Response Count 152 151 152 152 7 150

31.6% 33.3%

Favorably Very Not favorably sure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2%

Response Count 48 48 48 48 3 48

27.1% 29.2%

Early Adopters How favorably or unfavorably do you view the following: Answer Options Very Unfavorably Neither unfavorably favorably nor unfavorably The Democratic Party 96.0% 3.3% 0.7% (national level) The Democratic Party (state 85.4% 13.2% 1.3% level) The Republican Party 24.5% 26.5% 21.9% (national level) The Republican Party (state 13.9% 24.5% 28.5% level) answered question skipped question

Favorably Very Not favorably sure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

Response Count 151 151 151 152 7 151

23.2% 23.8%

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Next Wave How favorably or unfavorably do you view the following: Answer Options Very Unfavorably Neither unfavorably favorably nor unfavorably The Democratic Party (national 89.6% 10.4% 0.0% level) The Democratic Party (state 68.8% 27.1% 2.1% level) The Republican Party (national 10.4% 33.3% 31.3% level) The Republican Party (state 8.3% 31.3% 31.3% level) answered question skipped question

Favorably Very Not favorably sure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.2% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 4.2%

Response Count 48 48 48 48 3 48

22.9% 20.8%

Early Adopters How favorably or unfavorably do you view the following: Answer Options Very Unfavorably Neither Favorably Very Not unfavorably favorably favorably sure nor unfavorably President Barack Obama 96.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% Former President George W. 6.0% 22.5% 21.9% 43.0% 6.6% 0.0% Bush answered question skipped question

Response Count 149 151 8 151

Next Wave How favorably or unfavorably do you view the following: Answer Options Very Unfavorably Neither Favorably Very Not unfavorably favorably favorably sure nor unfavorably President Barack Obama 97.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Former President George W. 4.3% 23.4% 31.9% 27.7% 10.6% 2.1% Bush answered question skipped question Who did you vote for in the 2004 Presidential election? Answer Options George W. Bush John Kerry Did not vote Other (please specify) answered question skipped question Early Adopters Next Wave

Response Count 47 47

47 4

93.4% 1.3% 2.0% 3.3% 152 7

93.8% 2.1% 0.0% 4.2% 48 3

19

Who did you vote for in the 2008 Presidential election? Answer Options Barack Obama John McCain Did not vote Other answered question skipped question Early Adopters 0.0% 92.7% 1.3% 6.0% 151 8 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 48 3 Next Wave

Early Adopters Please rate the following in regards to the level of impact you think the Tea Party movement can have on each: Answer Options 1 2 3 4 5 6 Response (lesser (greater Count impact) impact) Presidential General Elections 0.7% 2.6% 7.3% 19.2% 27.8% 42.4% 151 Presidential Primaries 0.7% 3.3% 4.6% 13.9% 31.1% 46.4% 151 State-level General Elections 0.7% 0.0% 4.0% 16.8% 30.9% 47.7% 149 State-level Primaries 0.0% 2.7% 5.3% 10.7% 26.7% 54.7% 150 Local General Elections (city, 1.3% 4.7% 10.0% 10.7% 22.7% 50.7% 150 county, township, etc.) Local Primaries 1.3% 6.0% 10.0% 10.7% 22.7% 49.3% 150 answered question 151 skipped question 8 Next Wave Please rate the following in regards to the level of impact you think the Tea Party movement can have on each: Answer Options 1 2 3 4 5 6 Response (lesser (greater Count impact) impact) Presidential General Elections 0.0% 4.2% 12.5% 20.8% 27.1% 35.4% 48 Presidential Primaries 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 29.2% 29.2% 35.4% 48 State-level General Elections 0.0% 2.1% 6.3% 20.8% 39.6% 31.3% 48 State-level Primaries 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 23.4% 36.2% 36.2% 47 Local General Elections (city, 2.1% 4.3% 12.8% 29.8% 17.0% 34.0% 47 county, township, etc.) Local Primaries 0.0% 6.4% 14.9% 27.7% 14.9% 36.2% 47 answered question 48 skipped question 3 How long do you feel the Tea Party movement will be a force in American politics? Answer Options Through the 2010 elections Through the 2012 elections Indefinitely The Tea Party movement is not a force in American Politics Not Sure answered question skipped question Early Adopters 0.7% 23.6% 62.8% 0.7% 0.0% 33.3% 52.1% 0.0% Next Wave

12.2% 148 11

14.6% 48 3

20

How satisfied are you with the term "Tea Party" as used to describe the movement? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters Unsatisfied Somewhat satisfied Satisfied Very satisfied answered question skipped question 3.4% 18.9% 38.5% 39.2% 148 11 2.1% 16.7% 56.3% 25.0% 48 3

Early Adopters The following words or phrases have been used by the media to describe the Tea Party movement. Please state to what degree you feel these words or phrases describe the goals of the movement. Answer Options Doesn't Describes Describes Describes Not Rating Response describe somewhat well very well Sure Average Count well well Anti-incumbent 21.2% 26.7% 20.5% 30.8% 0.7% 2.61 146 Forward thinking 4.8% 11.6% 21.9% 57.5% 4.1% 3.38 146 Returning to the past 36.6% 24.8% 13.1% 17.2% 8.3% 2.12 145 Restoring 4.8% 2.1% 16.4% 71.2% 5.5% 3.63 146 Reactionary 42.4% 25.7% 16.7% 11.1% 4.2% 1.96 144 Adapting 35.0% 21.0% 18.9% 11.9% 13.3% 2.09 143 Creating 12.7% 16.2% 24.6% 33.1% 13.4% 2.90 142 Anti-establishment 41.8% 19.2% 17.1% 19.9% 2.1% 2.15 146 answered question 147 skipped question 12 Next Wave The following words or phrases have been used by the media to describe the Tea Party movement. Please state to what degree you feel these words or phrases describe the goals of the movement. Answer Options Doesn't Describes Describes Describes Not Rating Response describe somewhat well very well Sure Average Count well well Anti-incumbent 23.4% 19.1% 19.1% 38.3% 0.0% 2.72 47 Forward thinking 12.8% 12.8% 29.8% 38.3% 6.4% 3.00 47 Returning to the past 31.9% 21.3% 14.9% 25.5% 6.4% 2.36 47 Restoring 6.5% 10.9% 10.9% 65.2% 6.5% 3.44 46 Reactionary 36.2% 29.8% 19.1% 12.8% 2.1% 2.09 47 Adapting 44.4% 15.6% 17.8% 8.9% 13.3% 1.90 45 Creating 15.2% 21.7% 32.6% 26.1% 4.3% 2.73 46 Anti-establishment 39.1% 19.6% 21.7% 19.6% 0.0% 2.22 46 answered question 47 skipped question 4 In your opinion, are the people who make up the Tea Party movement becoming generally more or less enthusiastic? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters More enthusiastic No more or less enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Not sure answered question skipped question 63.7% 21.9% 8.2% 6.2% 146 13 66.0% 21.3% 6.4% 6.4% 47 4

21

In your opinion, is the Tea Party movement currently gaining or losing active supporters? Answer Options Early Next Wave Adopters Gaining active supporters Not gaining nor losing active supporters Losing active supporters Not sure answered question skipped question What is your gender? Answer Options Male Female Prefer not to disclose answered question skipped question What is your age? Answer Options 79.5% 11.0% 4.8% 4.8% 146 13 74.5% 17.0% 4.3% 4.3% 47 4

44.8% 52.4% 2.8% 143 16

Early Adopters

57.4% 38.3% 4.3% 47 4

Next Wave

18-21 22-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71+ Prefer not to disclose answered question skipped question What is your race? Answer Options

0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 11.2% 23.8% 29.4% 21.7% 7.7% 3.5% 143 16

Early Adopters

0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 8.7% 28.3% 15.2% 30.4% 15.2% 0.0% 46 5

Next Wave

American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Black or African American Hispanic or Latino Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander White Prefer not to disclose answered question skipped question

Early Adopters 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 85.2% 10.6% 142 17

Next Wave 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.9% 11.1% 45 6

22

Highest level of education completed: Answer Options Some high school High school Some college College degree Graduate school degree Prefer not to disclose answered question skipped question 0.0% 11.2% 28.7% 39.2% 18.2% 2.8% 143 16 Early Adopters 0.0% 15.2% 28.3% 30.4% 23.9% 2.2% 46 5 Next Wave

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APPENDIX 2: TEA PARTY TIMELINE

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25

the next wave: a surf report

Researched and written by Anne Sorock, director of marketing for the Sam Adams Alliance. Anne holds a B.A. from The Johns Hopkins University and an M.B.A. from Cornell University's Johnson School. Chris Stolte, research associate at the Sam Adams Alliance, assisted in the research and analysis. Chris holds a B.S. from Northwestern University and an Ed.M. from Harvard University in Human Development and Psychology. For media inquiries, please contact Evan Peterson at (312) 920-0080 or epeterson@samadamsalliance.org

whats next... for the next wave

fall 2010
www.samadamsalliance.org