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Tanker Enemy Geoengineering Cost Analysis Final Report

Tanker Enemy Geoengineering Cost Analysis Final Report

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Geoengineering Cost Analysis
Final Report
Prepared Under Contract toThe University Of CalgaryContract Number: __UC01-001______ Aurora Report Number: ____AR10-182__ October 30, 2010
Prepared byJustin McClellanJames Sisco, Brandon Suarez, Greg KeoghAurora Flight Sciences Corporation1 Broadway, 12
th
Floor Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142
www.aurora.aero
 
Geoengineering Final ReportUC01-001; AR10-182October 30, 2010
Page 2
Executive Summary ..................................................................................... 3
 
1
 
Introduction ........................................................................................... 6
 
1.1
 
What is Geoengineering? ................................................................................ 6
 
1.2
 
Introduction to This Study................................................................................ 6
 
1.3
 
Chemistry Considerations Affecting Dispersal ................................................ 7
 
2
 
Geoengineering Concept of Operations ................................................ 8
 
3
 
Basis for Cost Models ......................................................................... 10
 
3.1
 
RAND DAPCA IV Cost Estimating Relationships .......................................... 10
 
3.2
 
Assumptions and Cost Inputs ........................................................................ 17
 
3.3
 
Comparable operating airlines ...................................................................... 19
 
4
 
Overview of Aircraft Design and Selection .......................................... 21
 
4.1
 
Altitude Capability: Aerodynamics ................................................................. 21
 
4.2
 
Altitude Capability: Propulsion ....................................................................... 22
 
5
 
Analysis of Existing Aircraft and Results ............................................. 33
 
5.1
 
Assumptions specific to analysis of existing aircraft ...................................... 33
 
5.2
 
Choice of Platforms ....................................................................................... 34
 
5.3
 
Cost Estimates .............................................................................................. 35
 
5.4
 
Modifications to Existing Aircraft ................................................................... 37
 
5.5
 
Conclusions ................................................................................................... 40
 
6
 
New Aircraft Design ............................................................................ 43
 
6.1
 
New Aircraft Assumptions ............................................................................. 45
 
6.2
 
Uncertainty Analysis ...................................................................................... 45
 
6.3
 
Cost Estimates .............................................................................................. 46
 
6.4
 
Conclusions ................................................................................................... 48
 
7
 
Airships ............................................................................................... 50
 
7.1
 
Airship Design Considerations and Assumptions .......................................... 50
 
7.2
 
Cost Estimates .............................................................................................. 54
 
7.3
 
Conclusions ................................................................................................... 56
 
8
 
Non-Aircraft Systems .......................................................................... 62
 
8.1
 
Rocket Powered Glider ................................................................................. 62
 
8.2
 
Guns ............................................................................................................. 63
 
8.3
 
Floating Platform with Slurry Pipe / Gas Pipe ................................................ 67
 
9
 
Conclusions ......................................................................................... 74
 
9.1
 
Comparison of All Systems ........................................................................... 74
 
9.2
 
Recommendations for Future Work .............................................................. 78
 
10
 
Appendix ............................................................................................. 79
 
10.1
 
Basing Options .............................................................................................. 79
 
10.2
 
HLA Sizing Equations ................................................................................... 79
 
10.3
 
HLA Architecture Comparisons ..................................................................... 81
 
10.4
 
Existing HLA Hangars ................................................................................... 84
 
 
Geoengineering Final ReportUC01-001; AR10-182October 30, 2010
Page 3
Executive Summary
Geoengineering has been defined as: “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of theplanetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change.
1
” As Lord Rees,chair of The Royal Society, wrote in the forward to the Society's 2009 report on geoen-gineering,
"The continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, mainly caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is driving changes in the Earth’s climate. The long-term consequences will be exceedinglythreatening, especially if nations continue ‘business as usual’ in the coming decades. Most nations now rec-ognize the need to shift to a low-carbon economy, and nothing should divert us from the main priority of re-ducing global greenhouse gas emissions. But if such reductions achieve too little, too late, there will surelybe pressure to consider a ‘plan B’—to seek ways to counteract the climatic effects of greenhouse gas emis-sions by ‘geoengineering’ …
 
Far more detailed study would be needed before any method could even beseriously considered for deployment on the requisite international scale. Moreover, it is already clear thannone offers a ‘silver bullet’, and that some options are far more problematic than others.
2
".
 Geoengineering may be a means to create a time buffer against catastrophic climatechange while long-term emissions reduction actions take effect. One approach is todisperse particulates at high altitude to reduce the effective solar flux entering the at-mosphere. Sulfur compounds have been proposed, similar to the compounds emittedduring volcanic eruptions that have been found to cool surface temperatures. As shownin Figure 1, the reduction in top-of-atmosphere solar flux is dependent on the quantity of sulfur dispersed per year. Other particulates may also be suitable. This study investi-gates means of transporting quantitiesgeoengineering payload to altitude andreleasing it at specified release rates.A variety of systems including air-planes, airships, rockets, guns, andsuspended pipes are examined with agoal of lifting 1 million tonnes to alti-tude per year; we also evaluate 3 and5 MT/year for a few delivery systems.
Figure 1: Reduction in incoming top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar flux achieved for a given yearly disper- sal rate.
 
1
“Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty”, p. 1, The Royal Society, Lon-don, September 2009, 98 pp. ISBN: 978-0-85403-773-5
2
 
Ibid,
p. v.
3
Jeffrey R. Pierce, Debra K. Weisenstein, Patricia Heckendorn, Thomas Peter, and DavidW. Keith. “Efficient formation of stratospheric aerosol for climate engineering by emission of condensa-ble vapor from aircraft” Geophysical review letters, volume 37, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043975

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