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Table Of Contents

Motivation for the project
The ATP and its mission
Goal of the project
How the project was conducted
Structure of the report and major issues addressed
Lessons Learned
I. Defining and Quantifying Technical Risk
Technical risk and uncertainty
Risk of what? Defining failure and success
Modeling risks in new product innovation
II. Technical Specifications and Markets
Interaction of technologists and executives or investors
Radical (critical/emergent/disruptive) technologies
Markets, competitors and the pace of development
The financial fundamentals of risk and reward33
Making Decisions: Weighing risk and reward34
Weighing technical risk and market risk
III. Institutional differences: Large, medium-size, and new firms
Large corporations and the role of research labs
Medium-size corporations (suppliers)
Startup firms
The role of the university
IV. How Startups Manage Risk: Lessons from Two Case Studies38
Obtaining more cash at a given point in the future
Obtaining the same cash inflows, but sooner
Reducing cash outflows
Obtaining the same cash outflows---but later
Reducing the risk of the cash inflows
Other lessons from the cases
Summary of lessons from case studies
V. Strategies for Managing Risk
Skewness of returns and its implications
Strategies used by venture capitalists
Strategies used by corporations
VI. Overcoming Barriers to Innovation
Overcoming institutional barriers to radical innovation
Failure to connect to the market early
Sectoral concentration of innovative effort
Geographic concentration of innovative effort
The business model concept
Case illustrations
Technical Risk, Product Specifications, and Market Risk *
Elements of risk
Quantification of risk---An example
Concluding remarks
Effect of Technical Elements of Business Risk on Decision Making
Risk characterization
Making real-world decisions in a risky environment
Risk: Diversifying the project portfolio
Risk and funding
1. Venture capitalists and the financing challenge
2. Rationales for public programs
3. The challenge of program design
Technical Risk and the Mid-Size Company
Basic invention/concept stage
Achievement of market requirements
Robust commercialization
Raising Mice in the Elephants’ Cage
Growth and opportunity
Why this is a hard problem: Chess players at the poker table
The internal vs. the external path: The case for excubation
Assessing Technical Risk
Theoretical development
ATP as a source of validation
Possible scenarios
Ideas for further research
Appendix A: Workshop Agendas
June 21-22, 1999: Practitioners’ Workshop
September 16, 1999: Analytic Workshop
Appendix B: Participant Biographies
David Bernstein
Richard M., Burnes
Mark Chalek
Robert Charpie
Henry Chesbrough
Alexander V. D'Arbeloff
David Edwards
Howard Frank
Mary Good
George Hartmann
Marco Iansiti
Larry Jarrett
Steve Kent
Robert Langer
Josh Lerner
Jim McGroddy
Terry McGuire
David Morgenthaler
Ken Morse
Mark Myers
John Preston
David Ragone
Mike Roberts
Richard Rosenbloom
Rosalie Ruegg
Scott Shane
F.M. Scherer
Jon Tucker
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Published by Trish Fernandez

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Published by: Trish Fernandez on Feb 23, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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