Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
1
Poll Results for Michigan voters 12 days away from the February 28
th
Republican Presidential Primary election reflect
Santorum’s growing
base with Michigan voters, significant hurdles for the RomneyCampaign and missed opportunities for Paul and Gingrich to pick updelegates and the pathway to a crucial primary contest for theRepublican Presidential contest.
February 20, 2012Contact: Eric Foster, Foster McCollum White and Associates313-333-7081 CellEmail: efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com
Contact: Tarek Baydoun, Baydoun Consulting313-729-3737 CellEmail: baydounconsulting@gmail.com
The Michigan Republican primary has become a two person race between Republicanpresidential candidate Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Candidates Newt Gingrich and Ron Paulhave faded from the consideration for the majority of Michigan voters, even though candidatePaul has an opportunity to negatively impact Candidate Rom
ney’s efforts with specific voter
groups.Overall, Rick Santorum has a 3.62% margin (37.37% to 33.75%) over Mitt Romney. Santorumhas significant margins within key cross tab groups of Republican voters including:
Military and social conservatives,
Evangelical Christians,
Voters who believe the national debt, national security and American exceptionalism arethe priority issues of the campaign,
Male voters,
Tea Party voters, and
Republican voters ages 31 to 50 and ages 51 to 65.Candidate Romney has sizable, yet smaller margins among the following constituency groups:
Republican voters over the age of 65,
Moderate Republicans,
Non Evangelical Christians,
Voters who believe the Economy is the priority issue of the campaign,
Non military (Doves) within the Republican party, and
Non Tea party Republicans.The disappearance of Newt Gingrich as an option among Michigan Republican voters isextremely significant. Newt Gingrich is not a competitive option in Michigan and this will putsignificant st
ress on his performance in the Super Tuesday contest. After Newt Gingrich’s victory
in South Carolina, it appeared that he could be the candidate to gain victories and momentum in
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
2
states like Michigan. However, his defeats in Florida and Nevada and Rick Sa
ntorum’s three state
sweep in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri have sifted the opportunity to defeat Mitt Romney to
Rick Santorum. Per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White & Associates, ‘by not
actively participating in Michigan, Gingrich may have missed out on an opportunity to takeadvantage of the voters disconnect with Romney and deliver the most hurtful blow to the Romneycampaign so far in the 2012 election. Our analysis suggests that Rick Santorum is trending well inthe voter demogr
aphics that make up the winning coalition of Michigan Republican voters’.
The Michigan primary electorate has significant levels of fluidity prior to the election. Only63.3% of the likely republican primary voters are very committed to their candidate selection.Mitt Romney has a slight lead within this group 42.70% to 40.59% over Santorum, a 1.11 pointmargin. 19.4% of Republican voters are somewhat committed to their candidate with Rick Santorum leading the field with 43.98% of this category of voters versus 28.75% for candidateRomney, a 15.23 point margin.
Mitt Romney is on the edge of a significant blow to his campaign efforts. The combination of
Santorum’s surge, voter disconnection with Mitt Romney and the opposite impact of negative
campaign mes
saging have created a realistic path for Santorum to win Governor Romney’s homestate and win the overwhelming majority of Michigan’s delegate share. “
The potential doubledefeat (popular vote and up to 12 of the 14 congressional districts) would validate the narrativethat the Republican nominating process is far from over and temporarily end the inevitableargument of a Romney nomination
”, stated Eric Foster.
Santorum is winning the road map of thekey constituencies that a Republican must win in a primary contest. He is currently leadingGovernor Romney in the following key categories:5 of the six regions of the state including the Southwest and Central Regions, which are bellweather regions in Michigan.The Major 17 counties that determine Michigan elections (bell weather counties)Tea Party SupportVery Conservative votersEvangelical ChristiansMale votersFemale voters31 to 50 year old voters51 to 65 year old votersNational Debt/Fiscal ConservativesSocial ConservativesMilitary Conservatives8 of the 14 congressional districtsWhile the overall voter margin is close, Rick Santorum has sizable leads in each of these keyrepublican voting clusters and is losing the Romney base voter groups by smaller margins.Santorum compile significant voter margins and defuse the cushions that come from Romneyvoters. For example, Governor Romney is winning moderate Republican voters, Economyfocused voters and Catholics, but by margins less than 10 points. A roadmap does exist for MittRomney to win Michigan and he can still compete and win up to 8 congressional districts. The
key for Romney’s success will come from 5 constituency groups:
Women voters
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
3
Southeastern MichiganNon Tea Party RepublicanCatholic VotersVoters over the age of 60Romney must increase his margins within each of these voter constituencies and he must take thelead among female voters. He must grow to 15 point margins in these core demographics to retainMichigan in his column and avoid a crushing defeat.
Congressional Districts
Michig
an’s Republican Primary will award its delegates through a combination of individual
congressional district winners and overall State winner. This hybrid model will allow a secondplace or third place state-wide contestant to pick up delegates by winning o
ne of Michigan’s
congressional districts. Our findings suggest that Rick Santorum is in position to not only win thestate-
wide vote, but also win a majority of Michigan’s congressional districts. Santorum is
leading in the following congressional districts (above the margin of error of 2.14%):1
st
District
–
Santorum 42.29% to Romney 25.87%2
nd
District
–
Santorum 38.95% to Romney 32.11%4
th
District
–
Santorum 40.70% to Romney 26.74%6
th
District
–
Santorum 39.16% to Romney 25.90%8
th
District
–
Santorum 39.39% to Romney 32.73%10
th
District
–
Santorum 36.78% to Romney 32.76%12
th
District
–
Santorum 40.00% to Romney 34.29%13
th
District
–
Santorum 33.33% to Romney 29.63%Romney is leading in the following districts (above the margin of error of 2.14%):9
th
District
–
Romney 42.75% to Santorum 32.06%11
th
District
–
Romney 36.74% to Santorum 33.02%14
th
District
–
Romney 49.43% to Santorum 29.89%There are three districts that are a statistical tie (within the margin of error of 2.14%)3
rd
District
–
Romney 34.46% to Santorum 33.33%5
th
District
–
Romney 38.94% to Santorum 38.05%7
th
District
–
Romney 37.65% to Santorum 36.47%Rick Santorum is in position to not only win the state-wide vote and gain delegates, but he has astatistically relevant opportuni
ty to win 12 of Michigan’s 14 congressional districts. This would provide him with a potential yield of 26 of Michigan’s 30 delegates.
Search History:
Result 00 of 00
00 results for result for
p.
Foster McCollum White & Associates and Baydoun Consulting 2012 Michigan Republican Primary Voter Poll Press Release
367
Reads
0
Readcasts
0
Embed Views
More From This User
Notes
Load more
