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8 cal Model - Nunutjoe

# 8 cal Model - Nunutjoe

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01/18/2014

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1
Mathematical Model
Equation, formula
2
mc E
=
IR
=
Mathematical Model
( )
θ
logcos
232
x y
=
NRT PV
=
P
: pressure
: Volume
: Temperature
n
: number of moles
R
: universal gas constantAssumptions : ideal gas, static and close environment
Mathematical Model
Ideal gas law :
NRT PV
=
Q1 : Is this relationship true?Q2 : What is the value of the constant
R
?Answer these questions by a set of measurements :
( )
iiii
P
,,,
iiiii
N P R
=
Errors due to unknown outside factors exists.
Statistical Model
Observed data
p
P p
δ
+=
v
v
δ
+=
δ
+=
n
N n
δ
+=
δ
Unobserved measurement errors (random)Ideal gas law :
NRT PV
=

(
( ) ( ) ( )
nv p
Rnv p
δ δ δ δ
=

( )
nnv pv p
R Rn Rt  pvnRt  pv
δ δ δ δ δ δ δ δ
+++=
Statistical ModelSystematic componentRandom errorsDataModel parameter
Unknown parameter in systematic componente.g. universal gas constant
R
Analysis of Variance Model (ANOVA)
One-way ANOVACompare multiple populations…………..
211
,
σ  µ
222
,
σ  µ
1
11211
,...,,
n
2
22221
,...,,
n
a
anaa
,...,,
21
2
,
aa
σ  µ
Assumptions1. Normal2. Equal Variances3. Independence

( )
21
,
σ  µ
N
( )
22
,
σ  µ
N
( )
2
,
σ  µ
a
N
One-way ANOVA
=
=
aii
n N
1
Total sample size
=
=
aiii
n N
1
1
µ  µ
Overall population mean (grand mean)
µ  µ α
=
ii
i
th
treatment effect
  
=
=
0
1
aiii
n
α
Random errors
iijiijij
α  µ  µ ε
==
ANOVA model
ijiij
ε α  µ
++=
i
n j
,...,2,1
=
ai
,...,2,1
=
0
1
=
=
aiii
n
α
( )
2
,0~
σ ε
iid ij
One-way ANOVA
ANOVA model
ijiij
ε α  µ
++=
i
n j
,...,2,1
=
ai
,...,2,1
=
0
1
=
=
aiii
n
α
( )
2
,0~
σ ε
iid ij
µ
Between group
1
α  µ
+
2
α  µ
+
a
α  µ
+
………….
21212
=++
ε α  µ
Within group
22222
=++
ε α  µ
22
222
nn
=++
ε α  µ
………….

2
Test for Treatment Effects
same.theallnotaresPopulation: vssame.thearesPopulation:
10
H

effects.treatmentareThere: vseffect.treatmentnoisThere:
10
H

0some: vs0:
i1a210
===
α α α α
H
l
i
th
sample mean
=
=
i
n jijii
n
1
1
overall sample mean
∑∑
== =
==
aiiiain jij
n N  N
i
111
11
Total sum of squares
( )
∑∑
= =
=
ain jij
i
SS
112
Treatment sum of squares
( ) ( )
∑∑
== =
==
aiiiain ji A
nSS
i
12112
Error sum of squares
( )
∑∑
= =
=
ain jiij E
i
SS
112

Between Group VariationWithin Group Variation
Test for Treatment Effects
Break down of sum of squares
( )
( )
iijiij
+=

( ) ( )
( )
∑∑∑∑
= === =
+=
ain jiijaiiiain jij
ii
n
11212112

E  A
SSSSSS
+=
Treatment mean squares
( )
=
==
aiii A A
naaSS MS
12
111
Error mean squares
( )
∑∑
= =
==
ain jiij E  E
i
a N a N  SS MS
112
1
true
1
H
sametheallnot
i
α

sametheallnot
i
µ
i
aroundof variationlarge

largebetotends
A
MS
MS
E
is unaffected by the population means.
Test for Treatment Effects
Reject
H
0
if
is too large.

Reject
H
0
if
obs
>
(
a
-1,
N
-
a
,
α
).
( )
α
,,1
a N a
Obtained from
distribution tableTreatment mean squares
( )
=
==
aiii A A
naaSS MS
12
111
Test statistic
E  A
MS MS
=
Error mean squares
( )
∑∑
= =
==
ain jiij E  E
i
a N a N  SS MS
112
1
Distribution
( )
0, 1 222
221122212121
2111
>
  
+
      
Γ
  
Γ
  
+Γ =
+
x x x x f
( )
21
,~
X
( )
2
22
=
X  E
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 1 2 3 4 5
F Densities
1
= 2,
2
= 4
1
= 4,
2
= 6
1
= 9,
2
= 9
1
= 12,
2
= 12
( )( )( ) ( )
4222
22212122
+=
X Var
Distribution
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80 1 2 3 4 5
( )
α
,,
21
α
( )
21
,
Distribution Table
( )
?05.0,4,3
=

( )
59.605.0,4,3
=
( )
?01.0,6,4
=

( )
15.901.0,6,4
=

3
ANOVA Table
Reject
H
0
if
obs
>
(
a
-1,
N
-
a
,
α
).Test statistic
E  A
MS MS
=
0some: vs0:
i1a210
===
α α α α
H
l
-1
SS
Total
SS
/(
-a)
-
SS
Error
MS
A
/
MS
SS
A
/(
-1)
-1
SS
A
TreatmentF-ratioMSd.f.SSSource
Computational Formulae
( )
N nnSS
aiiiaiii A
2..1212
==
==
( )
== == =
==
aiiiain jijain jiij E
nSS
ii
12112112
( )
N SS
ain jijain jij
ii
2..112112
==
= == =
=
=
i
n jiji
1
=
=
aii
1..
i
th
totaloverall total
One-way ANOVA
Example : Color brightness of films
23, 24, 25, 21, 26, 25, 27, 26, 22, 25, 27, 30, 25, 25, 27 Agfa
DataBrand
43, 41, 44, 50, 47, 32, 32, 36, 35, 34, 32, 38, 38, 40, 36Fuji32, 34, 31, 30, 37, 28, 28, 27, 30, 32, 26, 29, 27, 30, 31Kodak 378578452
T
i
013210
not: vs:
H  H
α α α
==
05.0
=
α

15
321
===
nnn
3
=
a
45
=
N
452
1
=
578
2
=
378
3
=
378578452
..
++=

1408
..
=
46040
311512
=
∑∑
= =
i jij
N nSS
iii A
2..312
=
=

451408153781557815452
2222
++=
A
SS

38.1363
=
A
SS
N SS
ain jij
i
2..112
=
= =

45140846040
2
=
SS

24.1985
=
SS
A E
SSSSSS
=

38.136324.1985
=
E
SS

86.621
=
E
SS
One-way ANOVA
-1
SS
Total
SS
/(
-a)
-
SS
Error
MS
A
/
MS
SS
A
/(
-1)
-1
SS
A
TreatmentF-ratioMSd.f.SSSource

1985.24621.861363.384442214.81681.6946.03
From F distribution table
( ) ( )
23.305.0,40,205.0,42,2
=
23.303.46
>=
ratio
Reject
H
0
at
α
= 0.05 .
The color brightness of the three brands of films are significantly different.
Estimation
Treatment effect :
α
i
i
Point
( )
  
±
N n MS
i E a N i
11
2,
α
IntervalDifference in treatment effects :
α
i
-
α
j
ji
Point
( )
  
+±
ji E a N  ji
nn MS
11
2,
α
Interval
Estimation
Example : Color brightness of films
13.3015452
1
==
53.3815578
2
==
2.2515378
3
==
29.31451408
==
95% C.I. For
α
1
:
( )
  
±
N n MS
E
11
1025.0,421

( ) ( ) ( )
  
±
45115181.14021.229.3113.30

64.116.1
±

[ ]
48.0,80.2
95% C.I. For
α
2
-
α
3
:
( )
  
+±
32025.0,4232
11
nn MS
E

( ) ( ) ( )
  
+±
15115181.14021.22.2553.38

84.233.13
±

[ ]
17.16,49.10
95% C.I. For
α
1
-
α
2
:
[ ]
56.5,24.11
95% C.I. For
α
1
-
α
3
:
[ ]
7.77,09.2
α
2
>
α
3
α
1
<
α
2
α
1
>
α
3
312
α α α
>>
Overall confidence < 95%