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z
=
Lc ny mun bit xc sut ng mu t 100-110mg% (theo X) ch cn tnh
xc sut t 0 n 1 n v lch chun theo Z hoc tm din tch di ng cong
t 0 n 1 (phn mu m-hnh 3). Tch phn ca hm f(z) t 0 1 chnh l din
tch di ng cong ny. Trong thng k gi f(Z) l hm xc sut chun tch ly
(cummulative normal probability function)
Biu 10.2 Din tch di ng cong chun t 0 +1o
( )
dz
2
z 1
0
2
e
2
1
z f
}
=
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Cng thc tnh tch phn hm F(z) kh rc ri thng ta dng bng Z-score
(phn ph lc) tnh. Xem bng khi z=0 z=1: F(z)=0,34
( )
dz
2
z 1
0
2
e
2
1
1 z 0 P
}
= s s
= 0,34
Nh vy xc sut P (0 Z 1) l 0,34 hoc xc sut nhng ngi c tr
ng mu t X=100mg% (tng ng vi Z=0) n X=110 mg%(tng ng
vi Z=1) l 34% (biu )
Cc khong c bit c th tnh nhm xc sut:
( )
dz
2
z
0
-
2
e
2
1
0 z P
}
= s s
= 0,5
( )
dz
2
z
0
2
e
2
1
z 0 P
+
}
= + s s
= 0,5
( )
dz
2
z
-
2
e
2
1
z - P
+
}
= + s s
= 1
Mt v d khc: Mun tnh xc sut ca z t - n 1,2 ta ly: xc sut
khong t - n 0 l p=0,50 cng vi xc sut khong t 0 n 1,2 l 0,38 (xem
bng z-score phn ph lc), tng cng 2 xc sut ny l 0,88 (tng ng 88%
ngi c ng mu 115mg%) (1 n v z bng 10mg%)
10.2 Nhn bit mt phn phi chun trong SPSS
C nhiu cch nh gi mt phn phi chun trong SPSS.
(1) n gin nht l xem biu vi ng cong chun (Histograms with normal
curve) vi dnh hnh chung i xng vi tn s cao nht nm ngay gia v
cc tn s thp dn nm 2 bn. Tr trung bnh (mean) v trung v (mediane)
gn bng nhau v xp (skewness) gn bng zero.
(2) V biu xc sut chun (normal Q-Q plot). Phn phi chun khi biu
xc sut ny c quan h tuyn tnh (ng thng)
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(3) Dng php kim nh Kolmogorov-Smirnov khi c mu ln hn 50 hoc
php kim Shapiro-Wilk khi c mu nh hn 50. c coi l c phn phi
chun khi mc ngha (Sig.) ln hn 0,05.
V d 1. Kho st men ALT (U/L) trn 30 ngi bnh thng, kt qu c nhp vo
SPSS nh sau:
V thc n Analyze > Descriptive Statistics> Frequencies
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M mn hnh Frequencies. Nhp chuyn bin ALT t bn tri vo Variable(s).
Nhp hp thoi Statistics Vo mn hnh Statistics, nh du nhy vo 4 : Mean,
Median, Std. deviation v Skewness v nhp Continue
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Nhp tip hp thoi Charts.. nh du vo trn Histograms: v nh dy nhy vo
With Normal curve, nhp Continue. Nhn OK s cho kt qu sau.
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Tr trung bnh (mean)= 23,97, trung v (mediane)=24,00 v xin(skewness)=0,533
Trong phn phi ny, tr s trung bnh v trung v gn bng nhau v xin dao
ng t -1 n +1. Nh vy y c th l mt phn phi chun. Tht vy xem biu
phn phi vi ng cong chun c dng hnh chung, c tr trung bnh l 23,97
v s liu phn phi kh u 2 bn.
kim nh Kolmogorov-Smirnov hoc v biu xc sut chun Q-Q (Normal Q-
Q plot) vo thc n: Analyze> Descriptive Statistics> Explore
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Khi xut hin mn hnh Explore, chuyn ALT t bn tri vo Dependent List:
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Nhn vo hp thoi Plots. Sau khi mn hnh Explore:Plots xut hin, nhp du nhy
vo Histogram v Normality plots with tests. Nhp Continue v nhp OK
Kt qu kim nh phn phi chun nh sau:
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V c mu 30 (nh hn 50), dng kim nhShapiro-Wilk vi Sig.=0,571 (ln hn
0,05). Chng t phn phi ny l phn phi chun.
Xem biu Normal Q-Q Plot bn di, cc tr s quan st v tr s mong i u
nm gn trn ng thng
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V d 2. Kho st men ALT (U/L) trn 30 ngi mc vim gan siu vi B mn tnh
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Vo Analyze> Descriptive > Frequencies nh phn trn
Kt qu
Phn phi ny c trung bnh (301,82) v trung v (190,00) kh khc bit. Hn na
xp (2,17) ln hn +1, v vy c th khng phi l phn phi chun. Tht vy, xem
biu vi ng cong chun cho thy s liu khng phn phi u, tp trung
nhiu v pha ui tri v t v pha ui phi (xp phi)
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r hn vo Analyze>Descriptives> Explore xem kim nh Kolmogorov-
Smirnov v biu Normal Q-Q plot
Kim nh Shapiro-Wilk vi Sig=0,000 ( nh hn 0,05 bc b gi thuyt khng).
Nh vy phn phi ny khng phi l phn phi chun. Trn biu Q-Q plot ta
thy s lin h gia tr s quan st v tr s mong i khng nm trn ng thng.
Ti liu tham kho:
1. Armitage P. and Berry G. The normal distribution, in Statistical methods in medical
research, 3
rd
edition, Backwell Scientific publication 1994, pp;66-71.
2. Altman DG. The normal distribution. statistic notes.BMJ 1995; 310:298.
3. Website: http://www.stat.wvu.edu/SRS/Modules/Normal/normal.html truy cp
ngy 12/02/09.
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Phu lc 1. Tnh xc sut (din tch) di ng cong chun:
V d: Z=1 th AUC=0,3412 (34,1%)
Z=1,5 th AUC=0,4332 (43,3%)
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