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Los Angeles Real Estate Market Update - Capital Redevelopment Group - Jeff Coga

Los Angeles Real Estate Market Update - Capital Redevelopment Group - Jeff Coga

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Published by Jeff Coga

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Published by: Jeff Coga on Feb 28, 2012
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12/13/2012

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Capital Redevelopment Group LLC | Coganomics | Volume 59
 –
February 2012
Special Report
Los Angeles
Where Are We Headed?
 
-$32,233-$127,600Most buyers in this market have accessto government-backed financing$729,750-16.8%
3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3)
-4.3%
3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*
Sales growth during the third quarterwas positive and improving
U.S.
$417,000
Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio
$729,250
not comparable
-$29,733
Local Trend
**Note: the 2009 loan limits for FHA and the GSEs were extended through 2010.
-$65,800
7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*
$33,400
1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3)
-6.3%
California
Prices are down compared to a yearearlier and continue to weaken7.4%17.0%$729,250
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana AreaLocal Market Report, Third Quarter 2011
Home Sales
State Existing Home Sales(2011 Q3 vs 2010 Q3)
Conforming Loan Limit**
Today's Market…
9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*
Los Angeles
FHA Loan Limit
45%
*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only
The relatively recent correction in localhome prices wiped out most of theequity gained over the last 7 years-16.0%$2,267
U.S.
Price Activity
$169,267$324,800
Current Median Home Price (2011 Q3)
 
$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,000-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%
2011Q3Q12010Q3Q12009Q3Q12008Q3Q12007Q3Q12006Q3Q12005Q3Q12004Q3Q12003Q3Q12002Q3
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth
0100200300400500600700-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%
2011Q3Q12010Q3Q12009Q3Q12008Q3Q12007Q3Q12006Q3Q12005Q3Q12004Q3Q12003Q3Q12002Q3
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth
1,000s
 
#N/A#N/A#N/A
#N/A
Natural Resou0.1%4.7Natural
0.6%
Construction3.3%169.2Constru
0.6%
Manufacturing10.2%524.8Manufa
8.9%
Trade/Transpo19.1%982.2Trade/T
18.9%Information
4.5%
229.1Inform2.0%Financial Act
6.0%
308.9Financi5.7%Prof. & Busin
15.2%779.9
Profes13.2%Educ. & Heal
13.5%695.7
Educat15.3%Leisure & Ho
11.2%574
Leisur10.0%Other Servic
3.4%174.8
Other 4.1%Government
13.6%697.596.6%
Gover16.9%#N/A
#N/A#N/A
#N/A#N/A
#N/A#N/A
#N/A#N/A
InformationFinancial ActivitiesProf. & Business ServicesEduc. & Health ServicesLeisure & HospitalityService Providing Excluding Government Other ServicesGovernmentNatural Resources and Mining
Local employment growth isrespectable compared to other markets0.8%
Natural Resources/Mining/Construction
12-month change (2011 - Sep)1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana Area
California
-2.6%-1.8%3.0%2.8%
Goods Producing200ManufacturingTrade/Transportation/Utilities
11.3%11.9%
Share of Total Employment by Industry
U.S.
State Economic Activity Index
ConstructionNA100-3,000-200-3,7006,90015,600-4,400
Current Unemployment Rate (Sep)36-month change (2011 - Sep)
7,200
NotComparableLos Angeles's unemployment rate lagsthe national average, but has improvedrelative to the same period last yearNotComparable
Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…
22,300
36-month Job Change (Sep)
California's economy is stronger thanthe nation's, but slowed from lastmonth's 3.01% change
U.S.
8,600
12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana Area (Sep - 2011)
Year-ago Unemployment Rate
9.1%9.6%0.9%
U.S.
-381,10044,800Employment has held up and is on anupward trendNotComparable
12-month Job Change (Sep)
17,500NANA
12-month Job Change (Aug)
Local Economic Outlook
Los Angeles
 
NaturalResourcesand Mining0.1%Construction3.3%Manufacturing10.2%Trade/Transportation/Utilities19.1%Information4.5%FinancialActivities6.0%Prof. &BusinessServices15.2%Educ. &HealthServices13.5%Leisure &Hospitality11.2%OtherServices3.4%Government13.6%NaturalResourcesand Mining0.6%Construction0.6%Manufacturing8.9%Trade/Transportation/ Utilities18.9%Information2.0%FinancialActivities5.7%Professional &BusinessServices13.2%Educational& HealthServices15.3%Leisure &Hospitality10.0%OtherServices4.1%Government16.9%

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