.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..

44) 1/ 54

.. 9-11 ..44
( CD)

1.

2.
3.

4.

3






.. 2540
IMF Neo Classic

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 2/ 54

(Underground
Economy)


GDP



(Traditional Economics) Classic
Neo Classic (Adam Smith)
.. 1776 3
1. Invisible Hand Invisible Hand


Invisible Hand


(Good Society)



2. Laissez Faire

(Privatization)
3. Division of Labor

1.
2. (International or Regional context)
3. (Global context)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 3/ 54

1. ()





2.

3.

4.

5. (Intregity)
(Business Ethics)

6.

IT
7.

.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 4/ 54

8. (Rigidity)
100


John Embree

IMF
vote vote


1

2

3

4

1
1.
1.1
1.1.1
Financial Time 12 2541

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 5/ 54

4
5 NICS
2527

(Over Consumption)

Crony
Capitalism (BBC)

Re-Financing

25 2540



Hidden Agenda

Paper Company
(VAT)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 6/ 54

27-28 2540 .

MUDY S&P

1.
2.
3.





1
2
IMF
2
1.

2.
.
(
23
)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 7/ 54

= + + + + (

/
3

= +

2-3
7

23,400

11

12

13

10

( )

1.

NAFTA

2. , .
One World Economic Order

3. APEC NAFTA

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 8/ 54

4.
23,400 SWAP
5. MUDY S&P
5
6. IMF 2-3 (
)

. USA 2
IMF

Harvard
Foreign Affairs
1997 How America Does it?
2
1. (Hard Power)

2. (Soft Power)

(Currency Power)

2-3 ..

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 9/ 54

1. .. 1991



2.
3.

4. MEGA TREND of ASIA (

)
(Network)

Ball to Basic
IMF IMF
IMF

IMF

1. 3.7
Real Sector

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 10/ 54

2. .


3. LAGS
1) (Recognitive Lags)
IMF
IMF
IMF

IMF IMF

2) (Administrative Lags)

. 3

NPL
3) Inpack Lags

Inpack Lags

Administrative
L
Inpack Lags

24 2543
GDP


200

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 11/ 54

+
+
60 60
30

(Expansion)
Boom
. Bust recession 6 7 %
7.5 - 8.5 %
18 (Paper Company)
Container VAT
(GDP)
0.4
V 6
Depression ( )
Depression Trough



3.7
... 2 ... ...
(
Hidden Agenda .

)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 12/ 54

20 30

1.1.2
( 1
TODARO . )

- New Classic
- (Development Economic
Institutional Economic)
- (Political Economic)

Todaro
(The Wealth of the Nation)
1776 2

1. Invisible Hand

2. Laissez Faire Lay your hand of me

Classic ,
19 Neo
Classical Economic

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 13/ 54

1.
2. (Optimum Growth)

3.
1) (Perfect Market Mechanism)
(Equilibrium Demand Supply)

2) Price Market (
)
3)

4)
(Marginal Utility)


5)
6) Economic Rationality ()
.




7)

(Political Economy)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 14/ 54

Todaro




Actors ()
demand supply
(Development Economics)
Todaro
1.

2.


-
Perfect Market Perfect
Competition

1.
2.
3.

4.

5.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 15/ 54

(Capitalist State)




Scientific Law

Todaro 20
3
1.

2.


3.

(Values)


(Basic Material Needs)
(Nonmaterial Wants)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 16/ 54

(Modernization)

Concept
(Modernization)
1.
(Economic and Social Equity)
2. (Elimination Poverty)
3. (Universal Education)
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
-
-

.
(Money is God)
.
.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 17/ 54

.



(Value Free)


.

(Indicator)

5

Y = I + C + G + (X M)
Y
I
C
G
X
M

=
=
=
=
=
=

investment ()
Consumption ()
Government ()

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 18/ 54

(Social Indicator)

.. 1970

(Multiple Effect)

(
)

1. Professor Dudley Seer

.. 1970

Prof. Dudley Seers
3
1.
2.
3.
2. Denis Goulet
Denis Goulet

3. Edgar Owen

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 19/ 54

.. 2530 Owen

3
1. Sustenance (The Ability to meet basic needs)
(To have enough in order to be
more) 9
2. Self esteem (To be a person)
3. Freedom from Servitude (To be able to choose)

3
1.
2.
3.

1. 3

2. (Traditional
Economics) (Political Economics)

3
3.

4.

1.2
1.2.1 4

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 20/ 54

1. Low-Income Countries (LICs)

20,000
2. Middle-Income Countries (MICs)
50,000 30,000
3. Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs)


4. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
13
1.2.2 3 7
1. 3

2.
-

-
3
1
BIBF


3.
3.1

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 21/ 54

54 31
100
10





15,000 8

1,800


1,625 299 328
2,000 10
2,000
11,900

3.2

4.
3

(Mixed Economic System)


GDP
5.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 22/ 54

50
GDP
6.


7.


1.2.3
1.
2. (Productivity)
3. (Dependency burdens)
4. (Underemployment)
5.


3.5

6. (Dominance) (Dependence)
(Vulnerability)

1.3
1.3.1 4

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 23/ 54

Torado Theory of Development

4
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.3.2 (The Linear Stages Theory)
.. 1950 .. 1960


. Rostows stages of Growth : Rostow Non Communist Manifesto
Karl Marx The Communist Manifesto Rostow
Karl Marx

Rostow
(Saving)
(Investment)

5
1
(The Traditional Society)
2
Pre Conditions to Take off

3
(Take off)

4
(Drive to maturity)

5
(Mass Consumption Society)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 24/ 54

. The Harrod Domar Growth Model : Harrod Domar

Capital Stack
1.3.3 (Structural Change Models)
.. 1970

2
1. The Lewis Theory of Development Lewis Two Sectors
Model 2

-

-

2. (Structural Change and
Pattern of Development) Hollis B Cheneng 3



1.
2.
3.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 25/ 54

4.

5.
6.
7.
1.3.4 (The International Dependence Revolution)
.. 1970

1. .







2. The False Paradigm Model

IMF

3. The Dualistic Development Thesis :



2

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 26/ 54

1.3.5 (The Neoclassical Counterrevolution)

1. (Free Market)
2. (Open Economy)
3. (Privatization)
4.
5.
6.
IMF ADB




1.3.6 : (The New Growth Theory ; An
Emerging Fifth Approach
.. 1980 .. 1990

1.3.7 :
1.3.8 :

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 27/ 54

IMF
14 2541

NPL

Growth Controversy :



5

1

1950 1960

Trickle down effect

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 28/ 54

.. 1960 2


1. (Absolute Poverty) (Poverty
Line) 20,000

2. (Reality Poverty)
5:1 ,
10:1 , 15:1 (Income Class) High Income Class, Middle
Income Class, Low Income Class
..

3. 20

3 Kunetch (
Institutional Economics Development Economics)
Neo Classic /

Laissez Faire
Kunetch U
()
Y

Kunetch

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 29/ 54

- 2 Y Y

- X X
(Time Series)
U
(X Y)

U

Momentum
Business Cycle
Business Cycle


Goodness

U
1.

.. 2520 = 5:1
2535
= 12:1
2538
= 15:1

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 30/ 54

2. (
25)
20% 20%
2518/19 2523/24 2528/29 2531/32 2533/34 2534/35 2535/36 2536/37
55.63
55.01
56.48
49.26 51.47
20%
20.64
19.86
20.30
20.11
20.96
20%
13.38
12.09
12.20
11.92
14.00
20%
9.10
7.89
7.98
7.44
9.73
20%
5.41
4.55
4.51
4.05
20% 6.05
72.11
75.49
75.31
76.59
76.39
76.66
76.75
70.22
40%
27.89
24.51
24.69
23.41
23.61
23.34
23.25
60% 29.78
:


- .. 2518-2519
20 49.26%
20 6.05%
- .. 2533-2534
20
56.48%

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 31/ 54

20
4.05%
40% 60%
- .. 2518-2519 40 70.22%
76.75% 2536-2537
- .. 2818-2519 60 29.78%
23.25% 2536-2537




10
85

J-curve of Crisis
Revolution Curve J
NS

X
Y
(Nics Satisfaction) 2
1. Expected Needs Satisfaction Needs
/
2. Actual Needs Satisfaction

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 32/ 54

J-Curve
Curve J

( PA 603
593-666)
(
)

(The
World Straitlaced Society)
2 X Y
(The World Straitlaced Society)
2
Y ability to appropriate surplus value (
)
X ()
Y = F (Xi)
X
1. (Political Power) :



2. (Economic Power) :
IMF , , ADB

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 33/ 54

Mutual Benefit ()
3. (Technology Power):




4. (Legal Power) :


.

5. :

1)


1. (International Capitalism)
2. (Bourgeois Professional)
3.
4.
5. (Peasants)
High

X
()

X1

X2

X3

X4

X5

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 34/ 54

.. 2010

2) 3
1.

2.
(Distribution according to work)
3.
(Distribution according to needs)
Exchange Value

3)

(Blue
Collar) White Collar, (Professional)

4) :
5) Mass Production



6)
(The quality)
7) (Sexism)
8) (Racism)

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 35/ 54

9)
(The Rape of Nature)

10) (Neo Imperialism)

11) 2 (Economic Circle)

(
: : 2535)

1 6
6 36
Place Poverty ()
36
(Group Target)
6
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

(Poverty Line) 23.7 2531
20 2539
....

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 36/ 54

7
2
1.

2.
BOI .. 2503
7 3
(
)
7 (Midterm Evaluation) .
7

8 ( 5 8
11 )

6 80
2 3)

(
)
.




Day care center

8 7.8
8
1 2

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 37/ 54

1. (Bio diversity)

2.
(Geometric Growth)
(Arithmetic Mean)
(Population Trap)
The Mathusian Population Trap




GND










21
New Economy
IT

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 38/ 54

(Urbanization)
( .)
1
2
(Primate City)

AIT




65







92 8

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 39/ 54

Parasitic city system
( 538 )
(Eastern Seaboard Development Program)
( 1 9
)
5
3

Eastern Seaboard 2
1.
2.
2


NICs

1.
Eastern Seaboard

2. High
Technology (Labour absorbable capacity)
, ., . BOI
()

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 40/ 54

1)

Poverty

Environment

Degradation

Productivity
+
Self sufficiency
+
Income distribution
Figure growth potential
Success of dev.
2)

Environ. Costs
Activities

econ.
integral part of policy initiative

3
1.

2.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 41/ 54

20% 40%
40% 3
3.

(Imationality)
(Environment Costs)

.. 2535
EIA (Evolution Impact Assessment)

Long term implications of environ. Quality economic analysis

Social Impact Assessment
:
2. Population
1. Concept of sustainable dev.

resource
3. Poverty
4. Econ. Growth
5. Rural dev.
6. Urbanization
7. Global

(Concept of sustainable dev.)

(Compromise) (Future Generation)
Compromise

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 42/ 54

Green
Culture

Effection Health
2. Environ. Problem
Effection Productivities

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 43/ 54

IMF

Social
Selfty Net




3

3.1
3.1.1
900


.4 .5

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 44/ 54

Real Sector


(Current Account)

(Capital Flight)
IMF


LAG

(Unexpected resause) Hidden Agenda
14 2541

BIBF


1.

2.
Junk Food
3. Good Bank- Bad Bank

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 45/ 54

4.


5.

( )

1. (Look Outward)



SMEs

2. (Look Inward)

3.

3.1.2 5

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 46/ 54

1.

2.

-

3.
-

4.

5. 3
Outward Looking Policy ()

- Good boy Bad boy

()
( )

Bad
boy Good boy
-
3.1.3

2529 4 3 1 (
) 2 3

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 47/ 54

2541 US$ 62,000 2540 7.1%

30% 10% )
8.5% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7%
2.7% 2.1% 6.5% 3.5%
20.5% 20.3% 16.3% 15%


2



3.1.4
Classical Model Classic Neo Classic



()

Factor Supply
2
1.

2.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 48/ 54

1.
2.

3.
4.
5.

3.1.5

(
)

Sub Regional Block

60 (1960)
Import Substitution Strategy

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 49/ 54

Know how

11 %

70 (1970) 3 Pre Take Off
10%

80 (1980) (.. 2523-2532)
2524 2527
2529
(GDP)
11 % 2531-2533
2534-2535 7 %
80 (2533-2540) 8 % VAT
Container VAT

2508 4%
2533 64%
()


IMF

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 50/ 54

(NIC) Newly Industrialization Country

NIC 1
1.


2.


3.

(Financial Analysis)
IRR ( Internal Rate Return )
1 IRR 20 2 IRR 25
15 1 Margin = 5 F
2 Margin = 10 2

4.

5. GDP
6.
7. BOI
8.
9.


10.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 51/ 54

11.

GNP (GDP)

Market Rationality

Market Rationality


20 NIC

1.


50%

2.
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
(NAC) Newly Agricultural Country

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 52/ 54

NAC
1.
2.
3.
4.

5.
6.



7.
8.

9.

10.
11.
NIC NAC NAIC




1.
2.
3.
4.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 53/ 54

5.
NIC

Demand
6.

7. NIC NAC



7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5
7.6
7.7 SMEs
7.8
1 2 3
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

.603 : .. ( 9-11 ..44) 54/ 54

7.
8.
9.
10.
11.