CHAPTER 1: POPULATION GROWTH 1.

1 Introductory observations:
Human Population growth is the change in human population over time. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth. It is known that population growth and economic development are effecting the environment. The interplay between population growth, resource

depletion/environmental damage has been debated much. There are those who think that high population growth causes stress on environment, and there are those who put less blame on population and more blame on economic development, industrial and agricultural practices that result in environmental damage. The fact is that both population growth and unsustainable economic development are cause for concern especially in developing countries. There is relationship between population growth and environmental damage. We may recall famous Erlich Equation: I=P*A*T I= Impact on environment P=Population A=Affluence (consumption) T=Technology coefficient Steve Jones, head of the biology department at University College London, has said, "Humans are 10,000 times more common than we should be, according to the rules of the animal kingdom, and we have agriculture to thank for that. Without farming, the world population would probably have reached half a million by now." The worlds population has significantly increased in the last 50 years, mainly due to medical advancements and substantial increases in agricultural productivity.

The recent rapid increase in human population over the past two centuries has raised concerns that humans are beginning to overpopulate the Earth, and that the planet may not be able to sustain present or larger numbers of inhabitants. The population has been growing continuously since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1400; at the beginning of the 19th century, it had reached roughly 1,000,000,000 (1 billion). Increases in medical technology have led to rapid population growth on a worldwide level. Current projections show a steady decline in the population growth rate, with the population expected to reach between 8 and 10.5 billion between the year 2040 and 2050. In May 2011, The United Nations increased the medium variant projections to 9.3 billion for 2050 and 10.1 billion for 2100.

The scientific consensus is that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in usage of resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem The Inter Academy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon

dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion. At the time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and low-bound scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a number that current estimates show will be reached around 2022. Indias population has crossed one billion mark. We are adding one more Australia in terms of POPULATION World reached: One billion in 1804 Two billion in 1927 Three billion in 1960 Four billion in1974 Five billion in 1987 Six billion in 2000 population It is expected to reach Seven billion in 2013 Eight billion in 2028 Nine billion in 2054

population each year. Have we devised programmers developmental that are

commensurate with this increase? If not, population factor alone would have significant contribution toward degradation of environment and

resource depletion. More people mean more pressure on resources, more consumption of energy, more production of wastes, including greenhouse gases-all having adverse effects
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on environment. Though population growth has slowed down, it has to be stabilized at still lower level.

1.2 Meaning of human population:

The human population refers to the total human inhabitants of a specified area, such as a city, a country, a continent or the world, at a given time. In simple words, Total number of people living in a area at a given time is called its population.

1.3 Meaning of human population growth:

(Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE2000 CE.)

Population growth is the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in a population using "per unit time" for measurement. In biology, the term population growth is likely to refer to any known organism, but this article deals mostly with the application of the term to human populations in demography. In demography, population growth is used informally for the more specific

term population growth rate and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the human population of the world.

1.4 Determinants of Population growth:

Population growth is determined by four factors, births (B), deaths (D), immigrants (I), and emigrants (E). Using a formula expressed as: PB-D+I-E In other words, the population growth of a period can be calculated in two parts, natural growth of population (B-D) mechanical growth of population (I-E)

Mechanical growth of population is mainly affected by social factors, e.g. the advanced economies are growing faster while the backward economies are growing slowly even with negative growth. Exponential population growth-dN/dT=rN Logistic population -d

1.5 concept of Population growth rate:

In demographics and ecology, population growth rate (PGR) is the fractional rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases. Specifically, PGR ordinarily refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula:

(In the limit of a sufficiently small time period.) The above formula can be expanded to: Growth rate = crude birth rate crude death rate + net immigration rate, or, P/P = (B/P) - (D/P) + (I/P) - (E/P),

(where P is the total population, B is the number of births, D is the number of deaths, I is the number of immigrants, and E is the number of emigrants). This formula allows for the identification of the source of population growth, whether due to natural increase or an increase in the net immigration rate. Natural increase is an increase in the native-born population, stemming from a higher birth rate, a lower death rate, or a combination of the two. Net immigration rate is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants. The most common way to express population growth is as a ratio, not as a rate. The change in population over a unit time period is expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period. That is:

A positive growth ratio (or rate) indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth ratio indicates the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero

indicates that there were the same numbers of people at the two times -- net difference between births, deaths and migration is zero. However, a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times. Equivalently, percent death rate = the average number of deaths in a year for every 100 people in the total population. A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than one indicates that the population of women is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of women is decreasing.

1.6 Excessive growth and decline:

Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment is

called overpopulation. It may be caused by growth in population or by reduction in capacity. Spikes in human population can cause problems such as pollution and traffic congestion, these might be resolved or worsened by technological and economic changes.
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Conversely, such areas may be considered "under populated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system. Between these two extremes sits the notion of the optimum population.

1.7 History of concern:

Concern about human population growth is relatively recent in origin. Throughout history, populations have grown slowly despite high birth rates, due to the populationreducing effects of war, plagues and high infant mortality. During the 750 years before the Industrial Revolution, the world's population hardly increased, remaining under 250 million. By the beginning of the 19th century, the world population had grown to a billion individuals, and intellectuals such as Thomas Malthus and physiocratic economists predicted that mankind would outgrow its available resources, since a finite amount of land was incapable of supporting an endlessly increasing population. Mercantilists argued that a large population was a form of wealth, which made it possible to create bigger markets and armies.

1.8 Demographic transition

The theory of demographic transition held that, after the standard of living and life expectancy increase, family sizes and birth rates decline. However, as new data has become available, it has been observed that after a certain level of development the fertility increases again. This means that both the worry the theory generated about aging populations and the complacency it bred regarding the future environmental impact of population growth are misguided. Factors cited in the old theory included such social factors as later ages of marriage, the growing desire of many women in such settings to seek careers outside rearing and domestic work, and the decreased need of children in industrialized settings. The latter factor stems from the fact that children perform a great deal of work in small-scale agricultural societies, and works less in industrial ones; it has been cited to explain the decline in birth rates in industrializing regions.
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Another version of demographic transition is proposed by anthropologist Virginia Abernethy in her book Population Politics, where she claims that the demographic transition occurs primarily in nations where women enjoy a special status. In strongly patriarchal nations, where she claims women enjoy few special rights, a high standard of living tends to result in population Many countries have high population growth rates but lower total fertility rates because high population growth in the past skewed the age demographic toward a young age, so the population still rises as the more numerous younger generation approaches maturity. "Demographic entrapment" is a concept developed by Maurice King, Honorary Research Fellow at the University, who posits that this phenomenon occurs when a country has a population larger than its carrying capacity, no possibility of migration, and exports too little to be able to import food. This will cause starvation. He claims that for example many sub-Saharan nations are or will become stuck in demographic entrapment, instead of having a demographic transition. For the world as a whole, the number of children born per woman decreased from 5.02 to 2.65 between 1950 and 2005. A breakdown by region is as follows: o Europe - 2.66 to 1.41 o North America - 3.47 to 1.99 o Oceania - 3.87 to 2.30 o Central America - 6.38 to 2.66 o South America - 5.75 to 2.49 o Asia (excluding Middle East) - 5.85 to 2.43 o Middle East & North Africa - 6.99 to 3.37 o Sub-Saharan Africa - 6.7 to 5.53 Excluding the observed reversal in fertility decrease for high development, the projected world number of children born per woman for 2050 would be around 2.05. Only the Middle East & North Africa (2.09) and Sub-Saharan Africa (2.61) would then have numbers greater than 2.05.

 "Demographic transition" is a model that describes population change over time. It defines four clear stages of population growth that nations often traverse in tandem with their socio-economic development. STAGE Typically seen in less developed countries where birth rates are 1: high but a large number of people die of preventable causes leading to a stable population. STAGE Death rates fall steeply as deaths from preventable causes are 2: reduced by better food supply and improved public health, but birth rates remain high due to high fertility, poor social development and limited access to health and contraceptive services. This often leads to a spurt in population. STAGE Birth rates fall but population continues to grow because there are 3: a large number of people in the reproductive age group due to the high fertility of the previous generations. STAGE Countries achieve a stable population once again with low birth 4: and low death rates but at a higher level of social and economic development. Population is stable but higher than in stage one.

This transition from a stable population with high mortality and high fertility to a stable population with low mortality and low fertility is called demographic transition. India is currently at the third stage.

Chapter-2 GLOBAL POPULATION SCENARIO

The world population has grown tremendously over the past two thousand years. In 1999, the world population passed the six billion mark. Latest official current world population WORLD POPULATION GROWTH Year Population 1 200 million 1000 275 million 1500 450 million 1650 500 million 1750 700 million 1804 1 billion 1850 1.2 billion 1900 1.6 billion 1927 2 billion 1950 2.55 billion 1955 2.8 billion 1960 3 billion 1965 3.3 billion 1970 3.7 billion 1975 4 billion 1980 4.5 billion 1985 4.85 billion 1990 5.3 billion 1995 5.7 billion 1999 6 billion 2006 6.5 billion 2009 6.8 billion 2011 7 billion 2025 8 billion 2043 9 billion 2083 10 billion

estimate, for mid-year 2010, is estimated at 6,852,472,823. The chart below shows past world population data back to the Year one and future world population projections through the year 2050.

2.1 World Population: Some Facts

The world population was 6.30 billion in 2003, according to the United Nations Population Fund. It is projected to grow to 8.91 billion by 2050. Four out of every five people in the world live in the developing world. By 2050, the developing world will have 88% of the world's population, up from the present 81%. The developed world has reached a stage where the number of births equal to the

number of deaths. This gives a negligible population growth rate of 0.2% and a stable population in terms of numbers. The developing countries, on the other hand, are estimated to be growing at the rate of 1.5% per year.

World Population Growth, in Billion

o World population is projected to cross the 7 billion mark in 2013; the 8 billion mark in 2028; the 9 billion mark in 2054.

o It has taken just 12 years for the world to add this most recent billion people (6 billion). This is the shortest period of time in world history for a billion people to be added. o World population did not reach one billion until 1804. It took 123 years to reach 2 o billion in 1927, 33 years to reach 3 billion in 1960, 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974 and 13 years to reach 5 billion in 1987. o World population nearly stabilizes at just above 10 billion after 2200.

Population Growth in More and Less Developed Countries

The increase in world population growth is mainly contributed by less developed regions which include majority of Asian, African and Latin American countries and most of this growth is taking place in the urban areas of these countries. By 2050, nearly 90 percent of the worlds population will be living in less developed nations Today, six countries account for half of the worlds annual growth of 77 million: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia. India alone accounts for about a fifth of the worlds total population growth.

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Women of Childbearing Age (15-49), World Scenario

The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion. Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN. The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to the future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.

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2.2 Projections of world population growth

o According to projections, the world population will continue to grow until at least 2050, with the population reaching 9 billion in 2040, and some predictions putting the population in 2050 as high as 11 billion. o According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects report: o The world population is currently growing by approximately 74 million people per year. Current United Nations predictions estimate that the world population will reach 9.0 billion around 2050, assuming a decrease in average fertility rate from 2.5 down to 2.0. o Almost all growth will take place in the less developed regions, where today's 5.3 billion population of underdeveloped countries is expected to increase to 7.8 billion in 2050. By contrast, the population of the more developed regions will remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion. An exception is the United States population, which is expected to increase 44% from 305 million in 2008 to 439 million in 2050. o In 2000-2005, the average world fertility was 2.65 children per woman, about half the level in 1950-1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.05 children per woman.
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o During 2005-2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, United States, Ethiopia, and China, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth. China would be higher still in this list were it not for its One Child Policy. o Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 75 years in 2045-2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045-2050. o The population of 51 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the successor States of the former Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005. o During 2005-2050, the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 98 million. Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005-2050, population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration. o In 2000-2005, net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. These countries include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom. o Birth rates are now falling in a small percentage of developing countries, while the actual populations in many developed countries would fall without immigration. o By 2050 (Medium variant), India will have 1.6 billion people, China 1.4 billion, United States 439 million, Pakistan 309 million, Indonesia 280 million,

million, Nigeria 259

million, Bangladesh 258

million, Brazil 245

Democratic 189 million, Ethiopia185 million, Philippines 141 million, Mexico 132 million, Egypt 125 million, Vietnam 120 million, Russia 109 million, Japan
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103

million, Iran 100

million, In 2050, population will reach Africa 1.9 billion 5.2 billion 674 million

Turkey 99

million, Uganda 93

million, Tanzania 85 million, Kenya 85 million and

Asia Europe

United Kingdom 80 million. o Walter Greiling projected in the

Latin America & 765 million Caribbean North America 448 million 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion, in the 21st century, and then stop to grow, after a readjustment of the Third World and sanitation of the tropics. Recent extrapolations from available figures for population growth show that the population of Earth will stop increasing around 2070.

2.3 Demographics of India:

Census Year 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Population (in millions) 361.1 439.2 548.2 683.3 846.4 1028.6 1210.1 Decadal growth (%) 13.3(%) 21.6(%) 24.8 (%) 24.6 (%) 23.8 (%) 21.3 (%) 17.6(%)

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Current Population of India in 2011 Total Male Population in India Total Female Population in India Sex Ratio Age structure 0 to 25 years

1,210,193,422 (1.21 billion) 623,700,000 (623.7 million) 586,500,000 (586.5 million) 940 females per 1,000 males

50% of India's current population

Currently, there are about 51 births in India in a minute. India's Population in 2001 Population of India in 1947 1.02 billion 350 million

o India, with 1,210,193,422 (1.21 billion) people is the second most populous country in the world, while China is on the top with over 1,350,044,605 (1.35 billion) people. o In just 10 years India has added 181 million which is total population of Brazil. o Indias population is almost equal to the combined population of US, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan and Japan (1-214 billion). o The figures show that India represents almost 17.5% of the world's population, which means one out of six people on this planet live in India while china is home for 19.4% of the world. o For the first time after 1921, Indias population growth rate has declined to 17.64% as compared to the previous which was 21.12% in 2001. o With the population growth rate at 1.58%, India is predicted to have more than 1.53 billion people by the end of 2030. Although, the crown of the world's most
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populous country is on China's head for decades, India is all set to surpass chinas position by 2030. o sex ratio improved from 933 in 2001 to 940 in 2011.

More than 50% of India's current population is below the age of 25 and over 65% below the age of 35. o Most populated states Uttar Pradesh with 199.6 million populations which is 16% of Indias population. Maharashtra with 112.4 million which is 9% if Indias population Punjab, Haryana and Chhattisgarh together make up 2% of total Indian population.

o Least populated state- Sikkim with 607688 population. o Most populated among union territories is Delhi with 1, 67, 53, 235. o About 72.2% of the population lives in some 638,000 villages and the rest 27.8% in about 5,480 towns and urban agglomerations. o The birth rate (child births per 1,000 people per year) is 22.22 births/1,000 population (2009 est.) while death rate (deaths per 1000 individuals per year) is 6.4 deaths/1,000 population. o Fertility rate is 2.72 children born/woman (NFHS-3, 2008) and Infant mortality rate is 30.15 deaths/1,000 live births (2009 estimated). Some of the reasons for India's rapidly growing population are poverty, illiteracy, high fertility rate, rapid decline in death rates or mortality rates and immigration from Bangladesh and Nepal. Alarmed by its swelling population, India started taking measures to stem the growth rate quite early. In fact India by launching the National Family Planning program in 1952 became the first country in the world to have a population policy. The family planning program yielded some noticeable results, bringing down significantly the country's fertility rate. In 19652009, the contraceptive usage more than tripled and the fertility rate more than halved. The efforts did produce positive results, however, failed to achieve the ultimate goal and the population of India since getting independence from Britain in 1947 increased almost three times. Whereas India has missed almost all its targets to bring the rate of population growth under control, China's 'One Child Policy' in 1978, has brought tremendous results for the latter. The policy claims to
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have prevented between 250 and 300 million births from 1978 to 2000 and 400 million births from 1979 to 2010.

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Chapter-3 Implications of human population growth

More people mean more pressure on resources, more consumption of energy, more production of wastes, including green house gases-all having adverse effects on environment. The world's current and projected population growth calls for an increase in efforts to meet the needs for food, water, health care, technology and education. In the poorest countries, massive efforts are needed to keep social and economic conditions from deteriorating further; any real advances in well-being and the quality of life are negated by further population growth. Many countries lack adequate supplies of basic materials needed to support their current population. Rapid population growth can affect both the overall quality of life and the degree of human suffering on Earth. 3.1 More pressure on available resources: All means of satisfying human needs, at a given time and place are resources. Thus resources are means for attaining individual and social welfare. Natural components like land, water, minerals, forests, wildlife, energy-or even man himself-are considered as resources as well as resource creating factors. A global concern has been whether the present rate of global population growth will be sufficient to meet up the resource needs for mankinds survival and comfort? Thus there lies the quest for sustainable use of resources to meet up the ever increasing needs of human populations. Recent technological innovations helped a lot in solving the problems of resource depletion at a faster rate. 1)Availability of land: land is the most vital resource as it will be used for crops and other biological materials needed for food, fodder, medicine, fiber and associated materials. Large percentages of earths surface is covered by water, dedicated to agriculture, under conversion, intact, and used for human habitation. While humans ourselves occupy only 0.5% 0f the earths land area, so our effects are felt on one quarter of the land.

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India has a total land area of 2.4%of the world total, but supports a population of 17.5 % of the world. As such, per capita availability of land in the country is 0.48 hectare as against 4.41% hectares in the USA, 8.43 hectare in USSR and 0.98 hectares in china. Furthermore, the population of India is concentrated in well watered plains, creating further problems. The World Resources Institute states that "Agricultural conversion to croplands and managed pastures has affected some 3.3 billion [hectares] roughly 26 percent of the land area. All totaled, agriculture has displaced one-third of temperate and tropical forests and one-quarter of natural grasslands." Forty percent of the land area is under conversion and fragmented; less than one quarter, primarily in the Arctic and the deserts, remains intact. Usable land may become less useful through salinization, deforestation, desertification, erosion, and urban sprawl. The development of energy sources may also require large areas, for example, the building of hydroelectric dams. Thus, available useful land may become a limiting factor. By most estimates, at least half of cultivable land is already being farmed, and there are concerns that the remaining reserves are greatly overestimated. Some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and particularly the Emirate of Dubai have constructed large artificial islands, or have created large dam and dike systems, like the Netherlands, which reclaim land from the sea to increase their total land area. Some scientists have said that in the future, densely populated cities will use vertical farming to grow food inside skyscrapers. The notion that space is limited has been decried by skeptics, who point out that the Earth's population of roughly 6.8 billion people could comfortably inhabit an area comparable in size to the state of Texas, in the United States (about 269,000 square miles or 696,707 square kilometers). However, the impact of humanity extends over a far greater area than that required simply for habitation. 2)Inadequate fresh water: water is the most vital resource for life approximately 97.2% water lies in oceans as salt water, while 2.15% in frozen ice form and the remaining 0.65% remains as fresh water either on surface or as ground water. Available fresh water resources are very limited. The demand for fresh water has increased day by day and will increase with the rapid growth of population, agriculture and industry. As a result the fresh water reserve depletes day by day too. The requirement of clean water is about 2.7
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liter per day, thus the global requirement is about purpose.

6 billion cu. M. only for drinking use as well as sewage

Inadequate fresh water for drinking water

treatment and effluent discharge. Some countries, like Saudi Arabia, use energyexpensive desalination to solve the problem of water shortages. 3)More consumption of energy resources: more people mean more consumption of energy resources like fossil fuels, viz., oil, coal, natural gas or nuclear materials. In India, estimated annual energy availability lies somewhat between 2,50,000 MW, of which over 90% obtained from conventional sources. The relative energy requirement in urban and rural areas from various sources varies distinctly. For instance in urban area transport, industry and household requirements are considerably to be more prominent than rural areas. In addition energy consumption pattern also changes with time. Population optimists have been criticized for failing to take into account the depletion of the petroleum required for the production of fertilizers and fuel for transportation, as well as other fossil fuels. In his 1992 book Earth in the Balance, Al Gore wrote, "... it ought to be possible to establish a coordinated global program to accomplish the strategic goal of completely eliminating the internal combustion engine over, say, a twenty-five-year period..." Approximately half of the oil produced in the United States is refined into gasoline for use in internal combustion engines. Optimists counter that fossil fuels will be sufficient until the development and implementation of suitable replacement technologiessuch as hydrogen or other sources of renewable energyoccurs. Methods of manufacturing fertilizers from

garbage, sewage, and agricultural waste by using thermal depolymerization have been discovered. 4) Depletion of mineral resources: a variety of both metals and non metals were exploited by the mankind over centuries. As per estimates made by Geological Survey of India, India has more than 22 types of minerals in considerably high quantity. In most cases, they are already mined out partially. If the current rate of exploitation continues and if there is no further new exploration of deposit then our mining activity might be completed by 2020.
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3.2 Social implications of human population growth: 1)Food Scarcity: The population growth leading to population explosion causes severe economic disparities and gives birth to - competition for resources, price rise, hunger, malnutrition, and mass starvation. The gap between the rich and the poor has increased due to population growth. The rich people are exploiting more resources than poor people. Malnutrition is one of the most common effects of these problems. The poorest people in developing countries do not get adequate calories to develop their health properly. In Ethiopia, almost half of all children under age of 5 suffer from malnutrition. Most poor children and adults suffer from severe vitamin and mineral deficiencies. These deficiencies cause failure of senses, mental disorders and damage to vital organs. There are millions of starving people throughout the world. As per estimates, from 5 to 20 million people die of starvation across the world, every year. Some scientists argue that there is enough food to support the world population, but critics dispute this, particularly if sustainability is taken into account. Many countries rely heavily on imports however. Egypt and Iran rely on imports for 40% of their grain supply. Yemen and Israel import more than 90%. And just 6 countries Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, Thailand and the USA - supply 90% of grain exports. In recent decades the US alone supplied almost half of world grain exports. A 2001 United Nations report says population growth is "the main force driving increases in agricultural demand" but "most recent expert assessments are cautiously optimistic about the ability of global food production to keep up with demand for the foreseeable future (that is to say, until approximately 2030 or 2050)", assuming declining population growth rates. However, the observed figures for 2007 show an actual increase in absolute numbers of undernourished people in the world, 923 million in 2007 versus 832 million in 1995.; the

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more recent FAO estimates point out to an even more dramatic increase, to 1.02 billion in 2009. Global perspective about growing need for food Growth in food production has been greater than population growth. Food per person increased during the 1961-2005 period. The amounts of natural resources in this context are not necessarily fixed, and their distribution is not necessarily a zero-sum game. For example, due to the Revolution and the fact that more and more land is appropriated each year from wild lands for agricultural purposes, the worldwide production of food had steadily increased up until 1995. World food production per person was considerably higher in 2005 than 1961. As world population doubled from 3 billion to 6 billion, daily Calorie consumption in poor countries increased from 1,932 to 2,650, and the percentage of people in those countries who were malnourished fell from 45% to 18%. This suggests that Third World poverty and famine are caused by underdevelopment, not overpopulation. However, others question these statistics. From 1950 to 1984, as the Green

Revolution transformed agriculture around the world, grain production increased by over 250%.The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents. The number of people who are overweight has surpassed the number who are undernourished. In a 2006 news story, MSNBC reported, "There are an estimated 800 million undernourished people and more than a billion considered overweight worldwide." The U.S. has one of the highest rates of obesity in the world. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states in its report The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006, that while the number of undernourished people in the developing countries has declined by about three million, a smaller proportion of the populations of developing countries is undernourished today than in 199092: 17% against 20%. Furthermore, FAO's projections suggest that the proportion of hungry people in developing countries could be halved from 1990-92 levels to 10% by
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2015. The FAO also states "We have emphasized first and foremost that reducing hunger is no longer a question of means in the hands of the global community. The world is richer today than it was ten years ago. There is more food available and still more could be produced without excessive upward pressure on prices. The knowledge and resources to reduce hunger are there. What is lacking is sufficient political will to mobilize those resources to the benefit of the hungry." As of 2008, the price of grain has increased due to more farming used in bio fuels, world price sat over $100 a barrel, global population growth, climate change, loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development, and growing consumer demand in China and India Food riots have recently taken place in many countries across the world. An epidemic of stem rust on wheat caused by race Ug99 is currently spreading across Africa and into Asia and is causing major concern. A virulent wheat disease could destroy most of the world's main wheat crops, leaving millions to starve. The fungus has spread from Africa to Iran, and may already be in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain food security in a world beset by a confluence of "peak" phenomena, namely peak oil, peak water, peak phosphorus, peak grain and peak fish. Growing populations, falling energy sources and food shortages will create the "perfect storm" by 2030, according to the UK government chief scientist. He said food reserves are at a 50-year low but the world requires 50% more energy, food and water by 2030. The world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned. Africa In Africa, if current trends of soil degradation and population growth continue the continent might be able to feed just 25% of its population by 2025, according to UNU's Ghana-based Institute for Natural Resources in Africa. Hunger and malnutrition kill nearly 6 million children a year, and more people are malnourished in sub-Saharan Africa this decade than in the 1990s, according to a report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of malnourished people grew to 203.5 million people in 2000-02 from 170.4 million 10
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years earlier says The State of Food Insecurity in the World report. In 2001, 46.4% of people in sub-Saharan Africa were living in extreme poverty. Asia One survey says that nearly half of India's children are malnourished. According to a 2004 article from the BBC, China, the world's most populous country, suffers from an obesity epidemic. More recent data indicate China's grain production peaked in the mid 1990s, due to over extraction of groundwater in the North China plain. Other Countries Nearly half of India's children are malnourished, according to recent government data. Japan may face a food crisis that could reduce daily diets to the austere meals of the 1950s, believes a senior government adviser. Population as a function of food availability Thinkers such as David Pimentel, a professor from Cornell University, Virginia Abernethy, Alan Thorn hill, Russell Hoffenberg and author Daniel Quinn propose that like all other animals, human populations predictably grow and shrink according to their available food supply populations grow in an abundance of food, and shrink in times of scarcity. Proponents of this theory argue that every time food production is increased, the population grows. Some human populations throughout history support this theory. Populations of hunter-gatherers fluctuate in accordance with the amount of available food. Population increased after the Neolithic Revolution and an increased food supply. This was followed by subsequent population growth after subsequent agricultural revolutions. Critics of this idea point out those birth rates are lowest in the developed nations, which also have the highest access to food. In fact, some developed countries have both a diminishing population and an abundant food supply. The United Nations projects that the population of 51 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the states of the former Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005. This shows that when one limits their scope to the population living within a given political
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boundary, human populations do not always grow to match the available food supply. Additionally, many of these countries are major exporters of food. Nevertheless, on the global scale the world population is increasing, as is the net quantity of human food produced - a pattern that has been true for roughly 10,000 years, since the human development of agriculture. That some countries demonstrate negative population growth fails to discredit the theory. Food moves across borders from areas of abundance to areas of scarcity. Additionally, this hypothesis is not so simplistic as to be rejected by a single case study, as in Germany's recent population trends - clearly other factors are at work: contraceptive access, cultural norms and most importantly economic realities differ from nation to nation. Food scarcity As a result of water deficits Water deficits, which are already spurring heavy grain imports in numerous smaller countries, may soon do the same in larger countries, such as China or India, if technology is not used. The water tables are falling in scores of countries (including Northern China, the US, and India) owing to widespread over drafting beyond sustainable yields. Other countries affected include Pakistan, Iran, and Mexico. This over drafting is already leading to water scarcity and cutbacks in grain harvest. Even with the over pumping of its aquifers, China has developed a grain deficit. This effect has contributed in driving grain prices upward. Most of the 3 billion people projected to be added worldwide by mid-century will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages. One suggested solution is for population growth to be slowed quickly by investing heavily in female literacy and planning services. Desalination is also considered a viable and effective solution to the problem of water shortages. After China and India, there is a second tier of smaller countries with large water deficits Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, and Pakistan. Four of these already import a large share of their grain. Only Pakistan remains self-sufficient. But with a population expanding by 4 million a year, it will also soon turn to the world market for grain.

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2) Overcrowding: There is limited habitable place on the earth. The overpopulation has caused severe stress on land which has further stressed forests and agricultural areas. People are migrating towards cities in search of jobs and cities are becoming overcrowded. Semi-urban lands and cultivable lands near cities have already gone under construction of houses. Even government lands like railway platforms, areas around monuments, and parks etc. are being seriously encroached. Increasing crowd in cities is aggravating the problem of pollution and insanitation leading to the spread of epidemics. Green lands in urban areas and even sea beeches have been reclaimed for housing and industrial purposes. 3) Poverty: Conditions of having insufficient resources or income are called as poverty. In its extreme form, poverty is the lack of the basic human needs like food, clothing, housing, drinking water, and health services. The worlds poorest people are found in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. They always struggle for shelter and clothing. They often suffer from malnutrition, famine, disease outbreaks, epidemics and war. In developed countries, poverty has caused drug dependence, crime, and mental illness. Overpopulation, unequal distribution of resources, inability to meet the cost of living, inadequate education and employment, degradation of environment, demographic trends and welfare incentives are primary causes of poverty. Lives in developing countries represent a picture of misery, hunger and poverty. Many of these countries have entered the second stage of Demographic Transition in which a high birth and reduced death rates along with a rising life expectancy accelerates the population growth. 4) Increasing Consumption: It is a simple truth that more people consume more food, wear more clothes, drink more water, need more houses to live, need more medicines for cure, make more noise, create more pollution, generate more waste etc. Some countries of the world have nearly stabilized their population but their life style has become consumption based. We may take the example of United States of America. Though, it is not overpopulated, it consumes about 40% of resources of the world alone and produces not less than 21 % of the worlds carbon dioxide which is a green-house gas. It has been observed by ecologists the world over that powerful people and
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developed nations consume more resources than weak and poor people and developing or under developing countries. Thus, increase in the rate of consumption at one end is causing an increase in hunger and crime at the other end. Merely, 20% of the worlds population lives in developed and richest countries. According to United Nations the worlds richest 20% of population consumes about 86% of resources of the world. Thus, the population growth and the changing pattern of consumption are responsible for the severe stress on environment. 5) Encroachment on Monuments : A monument is a building, column or statue of

historical importance built-in the past to remind future generations about a famous person or event. People who migrate from rural areas and work in cities often face difficulties and most of them spend their nights as homeless. They take shelter on pavements, abandoned railway buildings and on spaces left around historical monuments. Gradually, they build temporary houses on those places and start keeping their families there. Some of them start business works on those places and gradually a colony of such persons is established. So is happening with most of our uncared monuments today. Most of our monuments and old government buildings are being badly encroached by people who after sometime try to become owners of those areas. This is illegal and criminal attitude. However, this condition is the by-product of the explosion of population. 6) Stress on Common Social Facilities: We need facilities and facilities both on home front and on social front. More people require more use of available facilities. But facilities may be limited. So, there may be a great rush and competition for availing facilities causing severe stresses on those facilities. Community Halls, Bus Stops, Railway Junctions, Parks, Play Grounds, Hospitals and even roads are some common social facilities that are facing heavy stresses due to population explosion. One can see long lines of people standing for hours for their works. There is heavy traffic on roads round the clock. All these social facilities are often heavily polluted due to careless practices of human beings.

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7) Stress on Common Civic Services: Services provided by municipalities or municipal corporations to civilians are called as civic services. Those services include cleanliness, water supply, waste disposal, maintenance of drainage systems, community health care, care of animals (dogs and cattle) on roads, basic education etc. Over population has caused severe stress on civic services. It has excessive load of work on bodies providing civic services. As a result, those services have become unable to perform properly. On the other hand, many people in our societies have lost civic sense. Some of them drop their domestic wastes (including plastics) into drains or throw away garbage on roads. Some persons draw most of the supply water through electric pumps and all the other inhabitants of the area go without water.

3.3 Health implications of human population growth

Population growth leads to malnourishment, starvation and diseases.

High infant and child mortality. High rates of infant mortality are caused by poverty. Rich countries with high population densities have low rates of infant mortality.

Intensive factory farming to support large populations. It results in human threats including the evolution and spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria diseases, excessive air and water pollution, and new viruses that infect humans.

Increased chance of the emergence of new epidemics and pandemics For many environmental and social reasons, including overcrowded living

conditions, malnutrition and inadequate, inaccessible, or non-existent health care, the poor are more likely to be exposed to infectious.

Starvation, malnutrition or poor diet with ill health and diet-deficiency diseases (e.g. rickets). However, rich countries with high population densities do not have famine.

Low life expectancy in countries with fastest growing populations Unhygienic living conditions for many based upon water resource depletion, discharge of raw sewage and solid waste disposal. However, this problem can be

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reduced

with

the

adoption

of

sewers.

For

example,

after Karachi,

Pakistan installed sewers, its infant mortality rate fell substantially.

3.4 Environment and ecological implications of human population growth

The scientific study of inter-relationships among organisms and between organisms, and all aspects- living and non-living, of their environment is called as Ecology. Thus ecology relates to environment and ecological impacts of population means impacts of population on environment and its various components. The Ecological Impacts of population growth includes - impacts of population growth on Physical and Biological components of the natural environment. o Impacts of Population Growth on the Physical Environment Physical environment means non living environment or the land, air, water, soil and minerals. The utilization, overuse and misuse of physical resources increased manifold due to the growth of human population. As it has been told earlier, more population means more mouths to eat food which requires more agricultural production. More agricultural production demands two things (i) (ii) more cultivable land, and Advanced agriculture. More cultivable land has been made available by clearing forests and by reclaiming wet lands, ponds and green belts. Advanced agriculture requires utilization of more water, more fertilizers and more pesticides. Application of fertilizers and pesticides makes the soil infertile. Clearing of forests has its own serious impacts and the environment on the whole gets imbalanced. More population means more space to construct houses and availability of more consumer goods. It also requires more means of transport, more consumption of fossil fuels and more pollution of air, land and water. Thus growth of population leads to pollution of air, land and water. Different types of pollutions are causing a number of problems in the physical environment that are further affecting the biological
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environment seriously. Therefore from above discussion it is clear that population growth leads to deforestation, depletion of fossil fuels and environmental pollution. o Impacts of population growth on biological environment The population explosion of earlier days and of present day also, has already caused and still it is causing serious impacts on the global environment. As for biological environment, Human Population has stressed most of the biological systems, comprising flora and fauna as well as biological diversity. Ecosystem is the smallest unit of the biosphere. Since most of the components of the physical components are under serious threat due to population explosion, all the biological components are bound to suffer the consequences. And, hence most of the natural processes have been altered seriously that have caused serious imbalances in ecosystems. Let us have some glimpses of these imbalanceso For expanding cultivable land, forests have been cleared on large scales. Illegal timber trade by timber mafias and local pressure for fire wood have further depleted our forest resources. These destructive activities of human being have driven away many species of wild animals and have caused extinction up to considerable level. Forests have also been cleared for setting up of industries and for urbanisation. Thus habitats of varieties of birds, and other animals have been destroyed through human activities. There are other reasons of forest destruction also. Some of those reasons are forest fires and Jhooming. Jhooming is the practice of growing crops after clearing forest land by burning the vegetation. It is also called as slash and burn cultivation. Intensive agriculture and mining have also caused large scale destruction of habitats. o Frequent water crises in many parts of the world caused failure of agriculture leading to hunger and starvation. Vast varieties of plants and animals have been killed due to water crises. Frequent water crises often lead to migration of people and animals to other places thus causing overload on the resources of those areas.

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o Poaching and killing of wild animals and illegal trade in their body parts have already caused extinction of several species of animals. o Generation of waste due to increasing consumer culture and population explosion is causing spread of serious epidemics and deaths of people in many parts of the world. o Habitat destruction and overexploitation of resources etc. induced by population growth has caused serious depletion of biodiversity in many parts of the world. Bio- diversity is the species richness in a particular area and its depletion causes serious losses of a number of factors that are vital for running up of ecosystems. The already densely populated developing countries contribute to over 95% of the population growth and rapid population growth could lead to environmental deterioration. Developed countries are less densely populated and contribute very little to population growth; however, they cause massive ecological damage by the wasteful, unnecessary and unbalanced consumption the consequences of which could adversely affect both the developed and the developing countries. The review on "Promotion of sustainable development: challenges for environmental policies" in the Economic Survey 1998-99 had covered in detail the major environmental problems, and policy options for improvement; the present review will only briefly touch upon some of the important ecological consequences of demographic transition. In many developing countries continued population growth has resulted in pressure on land, fragmentation of land holding, collapsing fisheries, shrinking forests, rising temperatures, loss of plant and animal species. Global warming due to increasing use of fossil fuels (mainly by the developed countries) could have serious effects on the populous coastal regions in developing countries, their food production and essential water supplies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that, if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue, the mean global surface temperature will rise from 1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius in the next century. The panel's best estimate scenario projects a sea-level rise of 15 to 95 centimeters by 2100. The ecological impact of rising oceans would include increased flooding, coastal erosion, and salivation of aquifers and coastal crop land and displacement of millions of people living near the coast. Patterns of precipitation
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are also likely to change, which combined with increased average temperatures, could substantially alter the relative agricultural productivity of different regions. Greenhouse gas emissions are closely linked to both population growth and development. Slower population growth in developing countries and ecologically sustainable lifestyles in developed countries would make reduction in green house gas emission easier to achieve and provide more time and options for adaptation to climate change. Rapid population growth, developmental activities either to meet the growing population or the growing needs of the population as well as changing lifestyles and consumption patterns pose major challenge to preservation and promotion of ecological balance in India. Some of the major ecological adverse effects reported in India include: Severe pressure on the forests due to both the rate of resource use and the nature of use. The per capita forest biomass in the country is only about 6 tons as against the global average of 82 tons. adverse effect on species diversity: Conversion of habitat to some other land use such as agriculture, urban development, forestry operation. Some 70-80 % of fresh water marshes and lakes in the Gangetic flood plains have been lost in the last 50 years. Tropical deforestation and destruction of mangroves for commercial needs and fuel wood. The countrys mangrove areas have reduced from 700,000 ha to 453,000 ha in the last 50 years. Intense grazing by domestic livestock Poaching and illegal harvesting of wildlife. Increase in agricultural area, high use of chemical fertilizers pesticides and weedicides; water stagnation, soil erosion, soil salinity and low productivity. High level of biomass burning causing large-scale indoor pollution. Encroachment on habitat for rail and road construction thereby fragmenting the habitat. Increase in commercial activities such as mining and unsustainable resource extraction. Degradation of coastal and other aquatic ecosystems from domestic sewage, pesticides, fertilizers and industrial effluents.
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Over fishing in water bodies and introduction of weeds and exotic species. Diversion of water for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses leading to increased river pollution and decrease in self-cleaning properties of rivers. Increasing water requirement leading to tapping deeper aquifers which have high content of arsenic or fluoride resulting health problems. Disturbance from increased recreational activity and tourism causing pollution of natural ecosystems with wastes left behind by people. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (1992) acknowledged population growth, rising income levels, changing technologies, increasing consumption pattern will all have adverse impact on environment. Ensuring that there is no further deterioration depends on choices made by the population about family size, life styles, environmental protection and equity. Availability of appropriate technology and commitment towards ensuring sustainable development is increasing throughout the world. Because of these, it might be possible to initiate steps to see that the natural carrying capacity of the environment is not damaged beyond recovery and ecological balance is to a large extent maintained. It is imperative that the environmental sustainability of all developmental projects is taken care of by appropriate inputs at the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation stages.

3.5 Economic implications of human population growth

Population growth and its relation to economic growth has been a matter of debate for over a century. The early Malthusian view was that population growth is likely to impede economic growth because it will put pressure on the available resources, result in reduction in per capita income and resources; this, in turn, will result in deterioration in quality of life. Contrary to the Malthusian predictions, several of the East Asian countries have been able to achieve economic prosperity and improvement in quality of life in spite of population growth. This has been attributed to the increase in productivity due to development and utilization of innovative technologies by the young educated population who formed the majority of the growing population. These countries have been able to exploit the dynamics of demographic transition to achieve economic growth by using the human resources as the engine driving the economic development; improved employment
34

with adequate emoluments has promoted saving and investment which in turn stimulated economic growth. Following are the adverse effects of population growth on the Indian Economy: Adverse effects on savings: with population growth, there will be low savings. as with the same income sources one has to spent more as number of people increases in family unproductive investment Slow growth of Per Capita Income: per capita income will be less if there is population growth. underutilization of labor : as there is large number of population, it is not possible to make optimal utilization of human resource Unemployment: with the increase in population there is more pressure on employment services and it is not possible to give employment to large number of humans. adverse effect on quality of life: population growth leads to lower standard of living as more income is needed to fulfill the demands or daily needs of more members in the family but if there is less income and family is large in size, then this leads to adopt poor means of life. Poverty coupled with inflation in some regions and a resulting low level of capital formation. Poverty and inflation are aggravated by bad government and bad economic policies. Many countries with high population densities have eliminated absolute poverty and keep their inflation rates very low.

3.6Urbanization
The proportion of people in developing countries who live in cities has almost doubled since 1960 (from less than 22 per cent to more than 40 per cent), while in more developed regions the urban share has grown from 61 per cent to 76 per cent. Urbanization is projected to continue well into the next century. By 2030, it is expected that nearly 5 billion (61 per cent) of the world's 8.1 billion people will live in cities. India shares this global trend toward urbanization (Figure 8).
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Globally, the number of cities with 10 million or more inhabitants is increasing rapidly, and most of these new "mega cities" are in developing regions. In 1960, only New York and Tokyo had more than 10 million people. By 1999, the number of mega cities had grown to 17(13 in developing countries). It is projected that there will be 26 mega cities by 2015, (18 in Asia; of these five in India); more than 10 per cent of the world's population will live in these cities (1.7% in 1950). Indias urban population has doubled from 109 million to 218 million during the last two decades and is estimated to reach 300 million by 2000 AD. As a consequence cities are facing the problem of expanding urban slums. Like many other demographic changes, urbanization has both positive and negative effects. Cities and towns have become the engines of social change and rapid economic development. Urbanization is associated with improved access to education, employment, health care; these result in increase in age at marriage, reduction in family size and improvement in health indices. As people have moved towards and into cities, information has flowed outward. Better communication and transportation now link urban and rural areas both economically and socially creating an urban-rural continuum of communities with improvement in some aspects of lifestyle of both. The ever

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increasing reach of mass media communicates new ideas, points of reference, and available options are becoming more widely recognized, appreciated and sought. This phenomenon has affected health care, including reproductive health, in many ways. For instance, radio and television programmers that discuss gender equity, family size preference and family planning options are now reaching formerly isolated rural populations. This can create demand for services for mothers and children, higher contraceptive use, and fewer unwanted pregnancies, smaller healthier families and lead to more rapid population stabilization. But the rapid growth of urban population also poses some serious challenges. Urban population growth has outpaced the development of basic minimum services; housing, water supply, sewerage and solid waste disposal are far from adequate; increasing waste generation at home, offices and industries, coupled with poor waste disposal facilities result in rapid environmental deterioration. Increasing automobiles add to air pollution. All these have adverse effect on ecology and health. Poverty persists in urban and per-urban areas; awareness about the glaring inequities in close urban setting may lead to social unrest.

3.7 Rural population and their development

Over seventy per cent of Indias population still lives in rural areas. There are substantial differences between the states in the proportion of rural and urban population (varying from almost 90 per cent in Assam and Bihar to 61 per cent in Maharashtra). Agriculture is the largest and one of the most important sectors of the rural economy and contributes both to economic growth and employment. Its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product has declined over the last five decades but agriculture still remains the source of livelihood for over 70 per cent of the countrys population. A large proportion of the rural work force is small and consists of marginal farmers and landless agricultural laborers. There is substantial under employment among these people; both wages and productivity are low. These in turn result in poverty; it is estimated that 320 million people are still living below the poverty line in rural India. Though poverty has declined over the last three decades, the number of rural poor has in fact increased due to the population growth. Poor tend to have larger families which puts enormous burden on their meager resources, and prevent them from breaking out of the shackles of poverty. In States like
37

Tamil Nadu where replacement level of fertility has been attained, population growth rates are much lower than in many other States; but the population density is high and so there is a pressure on land. In States like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh population is growing rapidly, resulting in increasing pressure on land and resulting land fragmentation. Low productivity of small land holders leads to poverty, low energy intake and under nutrition, and this, in turn, prevents the development thus creating a vicious circle. In most of the states non-farm employment in rural areas has not grown very much and cannot absorb the growing labor force. Those who are getting educated specially beyond the primary level, may not wish to do manual agricultural work. They would like better opportunities and more remunerative employment. In this context, it is imperative that programmers for skill development, vocational training and technical education are taken up on a large scale in order to generate productive employment in rural areas. The entire gamut of existing poverty alleviation and employment generation programs may have to be restructured to meet the newly emerging types of demand for employment. Rural poor have inadequate access to basic minimum services, because of poor connectivity, lack of awareness, inadequate and poorly functional infrastructure. There are ongoing efforts to improve these, but with the growing aspirations of the younger, educated population these efforts may prove to be inadequate to meet the increasing needs both in terms of type and quality of services. Greater education, awareness and better standard of living among the growing younger age group population would create the required consciousness among them that smaller families are desirable; if all the felt needs for health and family welfare services are fully met, it will be possible to enable them to attain their reproductive goals, achieve substantial decline in the family size and improve quality of life.

3.8Water supply :
In many parts of developed and developing world, water demand substantially exceeds sustainable water supply. It is estimated that currently 430 million (8% of the global population) are living in countries affected by water stress; by 2020 about one fourth of the global population may be facing chronic and recurring shortage of fresh water. In India, water withdrawal is estimated to be twice the rate of aquifer recharge; as a result
38

water tables are falling by one to three meters every year; tapping deeper aquifers have resulted in larger population groups being exposed to newer health hazards such as high fluoride or arsenic content in drinking water. At the other end of the spectrum, excessive use of water has led to water logging and increasing salinity in some parts of the country. Eventually, both lack of water and water logging could have adverse impact on India's food production. There is very little arable agricultural land which remains unexploited and in many areas, agricultural technology improvement may not be able to ensure further increase in yield per hectare. It is, therefore, imperative that research in biotechnology for improving development of food grains strains that would tolerate salinity and those which would require less water gets high priority. Simultaneously, a movement towards making water harvesting, storage and its need based use part of every citizens life should be taken up.

3.9Food security
Technological innovations in agriculture and increase in area under cultivation have ensured that so far, food production has kept pace with the population growth. Evolution of global and national food security systems has improved access to food. It is estimated that the global population will grow to 9 billion by 2050 and the food production will double; improvement in purchasing power and changing dietary habits (shift to animal products) may further add to the requirement of food grains. Thus, in the next five decades, the food and nutrition security could become critical in many parts of the world especially in the developing countries and pockets of poverty in the developed countries. In India one of the major achievements in the last fifty years has been the green revolution and self-sufficiency in food production. Food grain production has increased from 50.82 in 1950-51 to 200.88 million tons in 1998-99 (Prov.). It is a matter of concern that while the cereal production has been growing steadily at a rate higher than the population growth rates, the coarse grain and pulse production has not shown a similar increase. Consequently there has been a reduction in the per capita availability of pulses (from 60.7 grams in 1951 to 34 grams per day in 1996) and coarse grains.

39

Over the last five decades there has been a decline in the per capita availability of pulses. During the last few years the country has imported pulses to meet the requirement. There has been a sharp and sustained increase in cost of pulses, so there is substantial decline in per capita pulses consumption among poorer segment of population. This in turn could have an adverse impact on their protein intake. The pulse component of the Pulses and Oil Seeds Mission needs to receive a major thrust in terms of R&D and other inputs, so that essential pulse requirement of growing population is fully met. Rising cost of pulses had a beneficial effect also. Till eighties in central India wages of landless laborerswere given in the form Kesari Dal which was cheaper than cereals or coarse grains. Consumption of staple diet of Kesari Dal led to crippling disease of neuro lathyrism. Over the last three decades the rising cost of pulses has made Kesari Dal more expensive than wheat or rice and hence it is no longer given to labourers as wages for work done; as a result the disease has virtually disappeared from Central India. Over years the coarse grain production has remained stagnant and per capita availability of coarse grain has under gone substantial reduction; there has been a shift away from coarse grains to rice and wheat consumption even among poorer segment of population. One of the benefits of this change is virtual elimination of pellagra which was widely prevalent among low income group population in Deccan Plateau whose staple food was sorghum. Coarse
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grains are less expensive than rice and wheat; they can thus provide higher calories for the same cost as compared to rice and wheat. Coarse grains which are locally produced and procured if made available through TPDS at subsidized rate, may not only substantially bring down the subsidy cost without any reduction in calories provided but also improve "targeting" - as only the most needy are likely to access these coarse grains. Another area of concern is the lack of sufficient focus and thrust in horticulture; because of this, availability of vegetables especially green leafy vegetables and yellow/red vegetables throughout the year at affordable cost both in urban and rural areas has remained an unfulfilled dream. Health and nutrition education emphasizing the importance of consuming these inexpensive rich sources of micronutrients will not result in any change in food habits unless there is harnessing and effective management of horticultural resources in the country to meet the growing needs of the people at affordable cost. States like Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh have initiated some efforts in this direction; similar efforts need be taken up in other states also.

3.10 Nutrition:
At the time of independence the country faced two major nutritional problems; one was the threat of famine and acute starvation due to low agricultural production and lack of appropriate food distribution system. The other was chronic energy deficiency due to poverty, low-literacy, poor access to safe-drinking water, sanitation and health care; these factors led to wide spread prevalence of infections and ill health in children and adults. Kwashiorkor, marasmus, goitre, beri beri, blindness due to Vitamin-A deficiency and anaemia were major public health problems. The country adopted multi-sect oral, multipronged strategy to combat the major nutritional problems and to improve nutritional status of the population. During the last 50 years considerable progress has been achieved. Famines no longer stalk the country. There has been substantial reduction in moderate and severe under nutrition in children and some improvement in nutritional status of all segments of population. Kwashiorkor, marasmus, pellagra, lathyrism, beri beri and blindness due to severe Vitamin-A deficiency have become rare.
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However, it is a matter of concern that milder forms of Chronic Energy Deficiency (CED) and micronutrient deficiencies continue to be widely prevalent in adults and children. In view of the fact that population growth in India will continue for the next few decades, it is essential that appropriate strategies are devised to improve food and nutrition security of families, identify individuals/families with severe forms of CED and provide them assistance to overcome these problem. Operational strategy to improve the dietary intake of the family and improve nutritional status of the rapidly growing adult population would include: 1. Ensuring adequate agricultural production of cereals, pulses, vegetables and other foodstuffs needed to fully meet the requirement of growing population. 2. Improving in purchasing power through employment generation and employment assurance schemes; 3. Providing subsidized food grains through TPDS to the families below poverty line. 4. Exploring feasibility of providing subsidized coarse grains to families Below Poverty Line (BPL) Operational strategies to improve health and nutritional status of the growing numbers of women and children include:

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1) Pregnant and lactating women - screening to identify women with weight below 40 Kgs and ensuring that they/ their preschool children receive food supplements through Integrated Child Development Services Scheme (ICDS); adequate antenatal intrapartum and neonatal care. 2) 0-6 months infants - Nutrition education for (a) early initiation of lactation (b) protection and promotion of universal breast feeding (c) exclusive breast feeding for the first six months; unless there is specific reason supplementation should not be introduced before 6 months (d) immunization, growth monitoring and health care. 3) Well planned nutrition education to ensure that the infants and children do a) continue to get breasted; b) get appropriate cereal pulse - vegetable based supplement fed to them at least 3 - 4 times a day appropriate help in ensuring this through family/community/work place support; c) immunization and health care. 4) Children in the 0 - 5 age group; a) screen by weighment to identify children with moderate and severe under nutrition b) provide double quantity supplements through ICDS; c) screening for nutrition and health problems and appropriate intervention. 5) Primary school children: a) weigh and identify those with moderate and severe chronic energy deficiency; b) improve dietary intake to these children through the mid-day meal. 6) Monitor for improvement in the identified undernourished infants, children and mothers; if no improvement after 2 months refer to physician for identification and treatment of factors that might be responsible for lack of improvement; 7) Nutrition education on varying dietary needs of different members of the family and how they can be met by minor modifications from the family meals. Intensive health education for improving the life style of the population coupled with active screening and management of the health problems associated with obesity.

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Chapter-4 Mitigation measures

While the current world trends are not indicative of any realistic solution to human population growth during the 21st century, there are several mitigation measures that have or can be applied to reduce the adverse impacts of population growth. All of these mitigations are ways to implement social norms. Population growth is an issue that threatens the state of the environment in the mentioned ways in previous chapter and therefore societies must make a change in order to reverse some of the environmental effects brought on by current social norms. In societies like China, the government has put policies in place that regulate the number of children allowed to a couple. Other societies have already begun to implement social marketing strategies in order to educate the public on overpopulation effects. "The intervention can be widespread and done at a low cost. A variety of print materials (flyers, brochures, fact sheets, stickers) needs to be produced and distributed throughout the communities such as at local places of worships, sporting events, local food markets, schools and at car parks (taxis / bus stands)." Such prompts work to introduce the problem so that social norms are easier to implement. Certain government policies are making it easier and more socially acceptable to use contraception and abortion methods. An example of a country whose laws and norms are hindering the global effort to slow population growth is Afghanistan. The approval by Afghan President Hamid Karzai of the Shia Personal Status Law in March 2009 effectively destroyed Shia womens rights and freedoms in Afghanistan. Under this law, women have no right to deny their husbands sex unless they are ill, and can be denied food if they do. All of these examples use principles of social psychology to show how a strong correlation to the damage to the planet caused by the rapid population growth. 4.1 Birth regulations Population growth is related to the issue of birth control; some nations, like the People's Republic of China, use strict measures to reduce birth rates. Religious and ideological opposition to birth control has been cited as a factor contributing to overpopulation and poverty. Some leaders and environmentalists (such as Ted Turner) have suggested that there is an urgent need to strictly implement a China44

like one-child policy globally by the United Nations, because this would help control and reduce population gradually. Indira Gandhi, late Prime Minister of India, implemented a

forced sterilization program in the 1970s. Officially, men with two children or more had to submit to sterilization, but many unmarried young men, political opponents and ignorant men were also believed to have been sterilized. This program is still remembered and criticized in India, and is blamed for creating a public aversion to family planning, which hampered Government program for decades. Urban designer Michael E. Arth has proposed a "choice-based, marketable birth license plan" he calls "birth credits." Birth credits would allow any woman to have as many children as she wants, as long as she buys a license for any children beyond an average allotment that would result in zero population growth (ZPG). If that allotment was determined to be one child, for example, then the first child would be free, and the market would determine what the license fee for each additional child would cost. Extra credits would expire after a certain time, so these credits could not be hoarded by speculators. The actual cost of the credits would only be a fraction of the actual cost of having and raising a child, so the credits would serve more as a wake-up call to women who might otherwise produce children without seriously considering the long term consequences to themselves or society. 4.2 Education and empowerment One option is to focus on education about overpopulation, family planning, and birth control methods, and to make birth-control devices like

male/female condoms, pills and intrauterine devices easily available. Worldwide, nearly 40% of pregnancies are unintended (some 80 million unintended pregnancies each year). An estimated 350 million women in the poorest countries of the world either did not want their last child, do not want another child or want to space their pregnancies, but they lack access to information, affordable means and services to determine the size and spacing of their families. In the developing world, some 514,000 women die annually of complications from pregnancy and abortion, with 86% of these deaths occurring in the sub-Saharan Africa region and
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South. Additionally, 8 million infants die, many because of malnutrition or preventable diseases, especially from lack of access to clean drinking water.[242] In the United States, in 2001, almost half of pregnancies were unintended.[243] Egypt announced a program to reduce its overpopulation by family planning education and putting women. It was announced in June 2008 by the Minister of Health and Population Hatem el-Gabali. The government has set aside 480 million Egyptian pounds (about 90 million U.S. dollars) for the program. 4.3 Extraterrestrial settlement In the 1970s, Gerard O'Neill suggested building space habitats that could support 30,000 times the carrying capacity of Earth using just the asteroid belt and that the Solar System as a whole could sustain current population growth rates for a thousand years. Marshall Savage (1992, 1994) has projected a human population of five quintillion throughout the Solar System by 3000, with the majority in the asteroid belt. Freeman Dyson (1999) favors the Kuiper belt as the future home of humanity, suggesting this could happen within a few centuries. In Mining the Sky, John S. Lewis suggests that the resources of the solar system could support 10 quadrillion (1016) people. K. Eric Drexler, famous inventor of the futuristic concept of molecular nanotechnology, has suggested in Engines of Creation that colonizing space will mean breaking the Malthusian limits to growth for the human species. It may be possible for other parts of the Solar System to be inhabited by humanity at some point in the future. Geoffrey Landis of NASA's Glenn Research Center in particular has pointed out that "[at] cloud-top level, Venus is the paradise planet", as one could construct aerostat habitats and floating cities there easily, based on the concept that breathable air is a lifting gas in the dense Venusians

atmosphere. Venus would, like also Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, in the upper layers of their atmospheres, even afford a gravitation almost exactly as strong as that on Earth (see colonization of Venus). Many authors, including Carl Sagan, Arthur C. Clarke, and Isaac Asimov, have argued that shipping the excess population into space is not a viable solution to human overpopulation. According to Clarke, "the
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population battle must be fought or won here on Earth. The problem for these authors is not the lack of resources in space (as shown in books such as Mining the Sky, but the physical impracticality of shipping vast numbers of people into space to "solve" overpopulation on Earth. However, Gerard O'Neill's calculations show that Earth could offload all new population growth with a launch services industry about the same size as the current airline industry. A hypothetical extraterrestrial colony could potentially grow organically, with most of the inhabitants being the direct descendants of the original colonists

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Chapter-5 Conclusion
Demographic transition is a global phenomenon; population growth is inevitable in the initial phases of the transition. For India the current phase of the demographic transition is both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is to ensure human development and optimum utilization of human resources. The opportunity is to utilize available human resources to achieve rapid economic development and improvement in quality of life. Over the last five decades the country has built up a massive healthcare infrastructure for delivery of FW services to the population in the Government, private and voluntary sectors. The RCH program envisages wider range of services and improvement in quality of services provided. There is universal awareness about the need for these services. In the next two decades the population growth will be mainly among the young adults who will be more literate, aware and likely to make optimal use of available facilities. India is currently in the phase of demographic transition during which where it will be possible for the country to accelerate the pace of decline in fertility. If the population now has ready access to good quality services at affordable cost, it will be possible for them to meet all their needs, achieve the desired family size and enable the country to achieve population stabilization rapidly. Demographic transition does not occur in isolation. Simultaneously, there are ongoing economic transition, education transition, health transition and reproductive health transition. All these affect human development. If there is synergy between these transitions; the transitions can be completed rapidly; there will be substantial improvement in human development and economic development. The focus of planners, program implementers and the people during the next two decades will have to be in achieving the synergy so that India can achieve rapid population stabilization, improvement in economic social and human development.

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Bibliography
Book: 1. Flowler,John M.1984, Energy &the Environment, (2nd ed.), New York, McGraw Hill. 2. Santra S.C., 1994. Ecology: Basic & Applied, M.D. Publication, New Delhi. P-250. 3. Santra S.C., 2004, Environmental Science, Environmental Science: General Perspectives. Websites: 1. http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/Population_Statistics.htm 2. http://dieoff.org/page111.htm, Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology [1] 3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_issues 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_issues_in_India 5. http://geography.about.com/lr/demographics/15359/1 6. http://geography.about.com/od/populationgeography/a/populationgrow.htm

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