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Table Of Contents

Agenda
From the well to the tank. .
Market drivers to watch
Price relationships to watch. . .and what JPMorgantrades
How oil (gas) trades
Risk exposure and management strategies
Conventions of the oil market
For example. .
Backwardation vs. contango
More backwardation than contango
How is crude oil related to other oils, like gasoline and heating oil?
Is all crude oil the same?
Where are most of the world’s oil reserves?
Who are the world’s top producers of crude oil?
What is OPEC’s role
What is OPEC’s ideal price?
A little history. .
Until this bull run, loss of market share was a real concern forOPEC
Keeping the cartel together can be tough, too
Short-to medium-term drivers for the oil market
The crude oil market today
This has been a refined products driven market
Commercial oil inventories —Crude levels remain healthy
Hurricanes hammer US Gulf refineries
US refinery maintenance: Looking ahead to the fall
Gasoline: An easier problem to solve in the Atlantic Basin
Phasing out MTBE. . . phasing in ethanol
Mean reversion (at least to the $20) is out the window
A new paradigm —contango at $70!
WTI backwardation vs. flat price
Change in the balance of energy market participation
Medium-term drivers of oil price have not gone away —yet
Is the demand story over?
Light-end products dominate global oil demand growth
The cycle of investment
Energy infrastructure/distribution capacity is still a constraint
Non-OPEC production has disappointed in recent years
OPEC sails through three bull years
Sliding OPEC spare capacity, but capacity additions in the pipeline
Top geopolitical hotspots: No strangers to disruptions
Oil production: An inherently risky business
US oil dependency —on the rise
US reliance on oil imports also on the rise
How is gas different from oil?
Major market drivers
The US needs LNG to meet growing gas demand
US LNG terminal capacity
Winter natural gas storage trajectories
Important data releases
Key websites
Bloomberg codes
Reuters codes
Basic oil conversions
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Oill and Gas Basics JPM Oct 2006

Oill and Gas Basics JPM Oct 2006

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Published by Mrdewinter

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Published by: Mrdewinter on Mar 06, 2012
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08/05/2013

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