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USIP Template 5March2012-1

USIP Template 5March2012-1

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Published by: FoxNewsInsider on Mar 07, 2012
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03/07/2012

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1
P
REVENTING
I
RAN FROM GETTING
N
UCLEAR
W
EAPONS
:
 
C
ONSTRAINING
I
TS
F
UTURE
N
UCLEAR
O
PTIONS
 
David Albright, Paul Brannan, Andrea Stricker,Christina Walrond, and Houston Wood
The Institute for Science and International Security
The publication of this report has been made possible with funds under a grant from the United StatesInstitute of Peace. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this reportare those of ISIS and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace.Support for the multi-year research effort underpinning this report and its dissemination was providedin part by grants from Carnegie Corporation of New York, Ploughshares Fund, Hewlett Foundation,New-Land Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, and Prospect Hill Foundation.
March 5, 2012
Digital Globe - ISIS
 
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Summary 3Introduction 8Current Iranian Nuclear Weapons Capabilities 10
Current Constraints on Iran’s Nuclear Progress
12Slowed but not Stopped 16
Iran’s Nuclear Futures
18
Policy Measures to Further Constrain Iran’s Breakout Options
26Interim Negotiated Measures 32Finding a Negotiated Long-term Settlement 37Conclusion 45
Digital Globe - ISIS
 
3
SUMMARY
Without past negotiated outcomes, international pressure, sanctions, andintelligence operations, Iran would likely have nuclear weapons by now. Iran hasproven vulnerable to international pressure. It now faces several inhibitionsagainst building nuclear weapons, not least of which is fear of a military strike by
Israel and perhaps others if it ―breaks out‖ by egregiously violating its
commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and moves toproduce highly enriched uranium (HEU) for nuclear weapons.However, threats of pre-emptive military strikes alone have been unproductivein extending this inhibition against building nuclear weapons. Instead, thesethreats have led Iran to better protect its nuclear facilities and activities andallowed it to make false comparisons to the case of Iraq, undermining support inmuch of the world for increasing pressure internationally out of fear thatpressure would lead to a preventive attack.Iran is already capable of making weapon-grade uranium and a crude nuclearexplosive device. Nonetheless, Iran is unlikely to break out in 2012, in large partbecause it will remain deterred from doing so and limited in its options forquickly making enough weapon-grade uranium. Iran continues to be subject to acomplex set of international actions that constrain its nuclear options.Faced with the difficulties and risks of military options and the marginal benefitsof negotiations during the last several years, an alternative third option, born outof frustration and slow, patient work, has developed. It builds on United Nations
Security Council (UNSC) resolutions that delegitimize certain aspects of Iran’s
nuclear programs. However, it goes beyond these efforts by increasing thechance of detecting secret nuclear activities and heightening barriers againstIran achieving its nuclear objectives. Its goal is to create and implement

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