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634407118525498861 Mega Crisis - Futurist File Size Very Reduced

634407118525498861 Mega Crisis - Futurist File Size Very Reduced

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Published by Jcastrosilva
Four scenarios, two perspectives
Four scenarios, two perspectives

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Published by: Jcastrosilva on Mar 08, 2012
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11/19/2012

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By William E. Halal and Michael Marien
Global MegaCrisis
Four Scenarios, Two Perspectives
 Two futurists map out the convergence of multiple global challenges,offering divergent viewpoints—one optimistic and one pessimistic—on the likelihood of successfully meeting these challenges and turning them into global progress.
26 

THE FUTURIST 
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Some Trends Driving the MegaCrisis

Climate Change, No Matter What.
7KH\HDUPDUNHGWKHKRWWHVW\HDUDQGGHFDGHRQUHFRUG7KHZRUOGKDVDOUHDG\VHHQD)WHPSHUDWXUHULVHDQGDQDGGLWLRQDO²ULVHLVOLNHO\HYHQLIDOOSURSRVHGDFWLRQVDUHWDNHQ([SHFWSRVVLEO\)LQWKHQH[WIHZGHFDGHVLIJUHHQKRXVHJDVHVNHHSJURZLQJ,QDGGLWLRQWKHSURMHFWHGVHDOHYHOULVHLQWKH,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH,3&&UHSRUWZDVLQFKHVE\QRZLWLVDERXWWKUHHWRVL[IHHWE\
WLRQVRIWKHROGJOREDORUGHUVKDNHQ EDGO\WKHJURZLQJWKUHDWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHORRPLQJHQHUJ\VKRUWDJHVKXJHJRYHUQPHQWGHILFLWVWHUURULVPDQGDKRVWRIZLOGFDUGVQRZIRUPDFRPSOH[LQWHUSOD\RIGHVWUXFWLYHIRUFHVWKDWDUHVWUDLQLQJHVWDEOLVKHGV\VWHPVWRWKHEUHDNLQJSRLQW7KHVHPXOWLSOHWKUHDWVFRQYHUJHOLNHDPXOWLYHKLFOHIUHHZD\SLOHXSLQVORZPRWLRQ,ILWKDGQRWEHHQEDGPRUWJDJHVDQGDUFDQHGHULYDWLYHVRWKHUGULYLQJIRUFHVLQWKHVHFRPSOH[V\VWHPVPLJKWKDYHFDXVHGURXJKO\WKHVDPHW\SHRIJOREDOIDLOXUH$QGPRUHIDLOXUHVVHHPDOOWRROLNHO\
The Global MegaCrisis: What Is ItAnd What Does It Look Like?
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BAMLOU / ISTOCKPHOTO

THE FUTURIST 
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27 
 
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Debating the Global MegaCrisisAnd Its Outcomes
:LWKWKHVHSROLWLFDOILQDQFLDODQGHFRORJLFDOFULVHVWKUHDWHQLQJWKHZRUOGWKHWZRRIXVHQJDJHGLQDVSLULWHGHPDLOGLVFXVVLRQODWHUSXEOLVKHGLQ
:RUOG)XWXUH5HYLHZ
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Scenario 1: Decline to Disaster 
7KHZRUOGIDLOVWRUHDFWWRWKH*OREDO0HJD&ULVLVLQWLPH,QGHFLVLRQUHLJQVGXHWRWRRPDQ\FKRLFHVWRRPDQ\HQWUHQFKHGLQWHUHVWJURXSVDQGWRRIHZUHVRXUFHVWRPDNHQHFHVVDU\FKDQJHV+XJHJRYHUQPHQWGHILFLWVSHUVLVWOHDGLQJWRIDLOXUHVRISXEOLFVHUYLFHVDQGDQLQDELOLW\WRPDNHFUXFLDOWUDQVLWLRQLQYHVWPHQWVLQHQHUJ\HGXFDWLRQDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUH*RYHUQPHQWVDUHXQDEOHWRUHIRUPILQDQFLDOV\VWHPVFXUEJOREDOZDUPLQJUHGXFHPLOLWDU\VSHQGLQJRUFRQTXHUGHILFLWVDQGDUHTXLWHOLNHO\IRUVHYHUDO\HDUVPXFKOLNH-DSDQ·V´ORVWGHFDGHµLQWKHV
Severe Institutional Failures.
7KHQHDUFROODSVHRIWKHZRUOG·VILQDQFLDOV\VWHPLQKLJKOLJKWHGVWUXFWXUDOIDLOXUHVLQWKHILQDQFLDOLQGXVWU\JRYHUQPHQWDQGRWKHULQVWLWXWLRQV$VWXG\RI&(2VQRWHG´7KHZRUOG·VOHDGHUVWKLQNWKHLUHQWHUSULVHVDUHQRWHTXLSSHGWRFRSHZLWKFRPSOH[LW\LQWKHJOREDOHQYLURQPHQWµ1REHO3UL]H²ZLQQLQJHFRQRPLVW-RVHSK6WLJOLW]ZURWH´7KHILQDQFLDOFROODSVHPD\EHWRPDUNHWVZKDWWKH%HUOLQ:DOOZDVWR&RPPXQLVPµ
Cyberwarfare/Cyberterrorism.
&RPSXWHUKDFNLQJLVJURZLQJFRPPHQVXUDWHZLWKWKHERRPLQJOREDOHFRPPHUFH86PLOLWDU\QHWZRUNVQXFOHDUIDFLOLWLHVEDQNVDLUWUDIILFFRQWUROV\VWHPVDQGHOHFWULFDOJULGVDUHXQGHUFRQVWDQWDWWDFN7KH861DYDO:DU&ROOHJHZDVVKXWGRZQ E\KDFNHUVIRUPRUHWKDQWZRZHHNVLQ7KHWKUHDWLVVRJUHDWWKDWRQHH[SHUWVXJJHVWHGLQVWDOOLQJ´F\EHUZDUKRWOLQHVµVLPLODUWRWKHVSHFLDOSKRQHVWKDWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG6RYLHW8QLRQXVHGWRDYRLGQXFOHDU$UPDJHGGRQ
Weapons of Mass Destruction.
7KHROGVWDWXVTXRRI0$'PXWXDOO\DVVXUHGGHVWUXFWLRQPD\KDYHNHSWWZRVXSHUSRZHUVORFNHGLQDVWDOHPDWHEXWLWLVQRORQJHUYLDEOHZLWKQLQHFRQWHQGLQJQXFOHDUSRZHUVDQGPRUHOLNHO\WRHPHUJHLQFOXGLQJWHUURULVWJURXSV%HWZHHQDQGWKHHQGRIWKH,OOLFLW7UDIILFNLQJ'DWDEDVHUHFRUGHGQXFOHDUWUDIILFNLQJLQFLGHQWV6XGGHQO\PDQ\RIWKHFRQFHUQVZHZHUHIRUHZDUQHGRIRYHUUHFHQWGHFDGHVDUHDWKDQG7KHIXWXUHLVDUULYLQJ³DQGZLWKDYHQJHDQFH7KHUHLVDSDOSDEOHDQGZLGHVSUHDGIHDUWKDWWKHSUHVHQWZRUOGLVXQVXVWDLQDEOHDQGWKDWHYHQWVFRXOGHDVLO\VSLQRXWRIFRQWURO6FLHQWLVWVDUHFRQYLQFHGWKDWDUHGXFWLRQLQFDUERQGLR[LGHHPLVVLRQVLVQHHGHGWRVWDYHRIIUXLQRXVFOLPDWHFKDQJH EXWDFKLHYLQJWKDWJRDOORRNVVRXQUHDOLVWLFWKDWPDQ\DUHJLUGLQJWR&RPSOLFDWLQJWKLVILUVWSRLQWLVWKHIDFWWKDWUHGXFLQJ&2
LVFRVWO\7KHVFLHQFHLQGLFDWHVWKDWJUHHQKRXVHJDVHVPXVWEHUHGXFHGE\IURPOHYHOVWRDYRLGVHYHUHFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KLVZRXOGFRVWURXJKO\WULOOLRQRUDERXWWRRIJOREDO*'3LIGRQHVRRQEXWZRXOGEHIDUPRUHFRVWO\LIGRQHODWHU7KHSUREOHPLVHYHQPRUHGDXQWLQJEHFDXVHPRVWGHYHORSLQJQDWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WRLQGXVWULDOL]HDQGPRVWLQGXVWULDOL]HGQDWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WRJURZLQFUHDVLQJDOOWKHVHWKUHDWVRYHUWKHORQJWHUP
Political Will to Reduce CO
2
IsLacking.
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WRWKHDWPRVSKHUHDVSUHVHQWWUHDWLHVLQWHQGWRUHGXFH
Methane May Be Worse ThanCO
2
.
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Freshwater Is Becoming MoreScarce.
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Recession Likely to Last for  Years.
7KH*UHDW5HFHVVLRQWKDWEHJDQLQLVRIWHQFRPSDUHGWRWKH*UHDW'HSUHVVLRQRIZKLFKODVWHGXQWLO7KH,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQGIRUHFDVWVJURZWKIRUWKHQH[WWZR\HDUVDWVOLJKWO\DERYHLQGHYHORSHGQDWLRQVDOWKRXJKLWVKRXOGUHPDLQDWLQWKHGHYHORSLQJZRUOG6RPHHFRQRPLVWVWKLQNXQHPSOR\PHQWUDWHVEHWZHHQ
“Suddenly, many of the concerns we were forewarnedof over recent decades are at hand.”
28 
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THE FUTURIST 
0D\-XQH

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