The Economic effects of Turkey`s Population of EU The size of Turkeys population is a subject of criticisms, which may be regarded as reasonable

to a certain extent, in some circles. However, when one considers the composition of this population and its relationship with the needs of the EU in a dynamic process, it will be possible to make very different assessments. The contribution of turkey`s population to EU economy

Turkey will contribute to the EU`s economic power on the global scene. With a population of &! Million, a steadily increasing GNP level (615 billion euros-PPP), a young and entrepreneurial population, an export oriented industrial economy and rapidly developing information society, Turkey`s accession will increase the size and competitiveness of the European internal market. Free Movement of workers and migration from Turkey to EU countries

The arguments put forward against Turkeys membership of the EU include the large size of its population and the concern that migration on a large scale would take place from Turkey to the EU after accession. Likely migration flows from Turkey to the EU on accession cannot be predicted with any certainty. They will depend among other factors on relative income and on unemployment levels and employment opportunities in Turkey and in EU member states. The direction of migration flows will also be impacted on by the location of existing Turkish communities in the EU. Some commentators suggest any Turkish migration (which may be rather limited as in the case of Spain and Portugal with people returning home as their home economies grow and prosper in the EU) will be from the young skilled section of the population. This may be the case, both given

likely demand in the EU and if youth unemployment remains high in Turkey. But given the ongoing rural-urban migration in Turkey, unskilled rural migrants may also look to EU labour markets. They suggest flows would be relatively low but with a positive economic impact. However, if Turkey did join in 2015 but with transition periods on free movement of workers until 2025, migration at that point will depend on relative income and employment conditions 20 years hence. What is clear is that Turkey will then have a much younger skilled workforce than that available in the EU, and will still be much poorer than the EU average. Given the relatively low migration flows predicted here, it is possible that tight EU labour markets and skill constraints, whether in 2015 or 2025, could lead to companies and countries at that point aiming to encourage more migration rather than to limit it.

Francois, J. (2005): Accession of Turkey to the EU: Implications for the Transport Sector, in Hoekman, B. and Togan, S. (eds.): Turkey Economic Reform & Accession to the European Union, World Bank and CEPR. Flam, H. (2005): Economic Effects of Turkey s Membership on the European Union, in Hoekman, B. and Togan, S. (eds.): Turkey Economic Reform & Accession to the European Union, World Bank and CEPR. Lejour, A and de Mooij, R. (2005): Turkish Delight benefits? KYKLOS Vol. 58/1: pp. 87-120 Does Turkey s accession to the EU bring economic