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November 2011Key Planning Factors: Response to an IND in the NCR
LLNL-TR-512111 / O1049
Funding for the research and development of this report was provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security with contracting support provided bythe National Nuclear Security Administration. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) would like to acknowledge the:
Leadership and Support
of the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency Response Directorate’s PlanningDivision Director, Mr. Donald Daigler; the CBRNE Branch Chief, Mr. Chad Gorman; and the IND R&R (Response and Recovery) Program Manager ,Mr. Steve Chase.
Supporting Science
of the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology’s Threat Characterization and Attribution Senior ProgramManager, Dr. Patricia Underwood.These individuals made themselves available for assistance and direction on all aspects of the project discussed in this report.Key contributions to this work come from the work of Michael Dillon from LLNL and Ann S. Yoshimura of Sandia National Laboratories for the assessmentof shelter and evacuation strategies following an urban nuclear detonation; Kevin Kramer, Joe Madrigal, Daniela Stricklin, and Paul Weber; Applied ResearchAssociates, for their contributions in radiation transport, public health, and NucFast blast analysis.The authors also gratefully acknowledge the insights and contributions of the Modeling and Analysis Coordination Working Group, a technical workinggroup collaborating on key aspects of nuclear effects modeling. Participants in this working group included:Blue, Charles; DHS Office of Health AffairsBell, Lauren; Gryphon ScientificBos, Randy; Los Alamos National LaboratoryBrandt, Larry; Sandia National Laboratory - LivermoreBrunjes, Ben; Homeland Security InstituteBuddemeier, Brooke; Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryCasagrande, Rocco; Gryphon ScientificChase, Steve; Federal Emergency Management AgencyChecknita, Dean; Department of Homeland SecurityChen, Shih-Yew; Argonne National LaboratoryClark, Harvey; National Nuclear Security AdministrationCrawford, Sean; Federal Emergency Management AgencyCrepeau, Joe; Applied Research AssociatesCurling, Carl; Institute for Defense AnalysisDillon, Michael; Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryDisraelly, Deena; Institute for Defense AnalysisFerguson, David; Federal Emergency Management AgencyGoorley, Tim; Los Alamos National LaboratoryGorman, Chad; Federal Emergency Management AgencyHann, Todd; Defense Threat Reduction AgencyJodoin, Vincent J.; Oak Ridge National LaboratoryJohnson, Jeffrey O.; Oak Ridge National LaboratoryKlennert, Lindsay; Sandia National Laboratory - ABQKlucking, Sara; DHS Science and TechnologyMacKinney, John; Department of Homeland SecurityMadrigal, Joe; Applied Research AssociatesMcClellan, Gene; Applied Research AssociatesMcNally, Rich; Health and Human ServicesMcPherson, Tim; Los Alamos National LaboratoryMercier, John; Armed Forces Radiobiological Research InstituteMillage, Kyle; Applied Research AssociatesNeedham, Charles; Applied Research AssociatesOancea, Victor; Science Application International CorporationPennington, Heather; Sandia National Laboratory - ABQReeves, Glen; Defense Threat Reduction AgencySchaeffer, Mike; DHHS/Science Application International CorporationSnyder, Emily; Environmental Protection AgencyStricklin, Daniela; Applied Research AssociatesTaylor, Tammy; Los Alamos National LaboratoryVojtech, Richard J.; Domestic Nuclear Detection OfficeWright, Suzanne; Science Application International Corporation
This report would not have been possible without the help of Robert Kirvel, Nancy Suski, Tammy Taylor, Gerald Troller, Amy Waters, and Dave Weirup.The modeling and analysis provided by this report could not have been possible without extensive interactions with the National Capital Region INDResponse Planning Steering Committee chaired by DC Fire and EMS Battalion Chief John Donnelly and workshop facilitation provided by the FEMAOffice of National Capital Regions Coordination, The Office of Secretary of Defense - Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, and the Counter Terrorism Operation Support. (CTOS) Center for Rad/Nuc Training at the Nevada National Security Site. Principal participants include (see next page):
iNovember 2011Key Planning Factors: Response to an IND in the NCR
Layout, artwork, and editing were performed by Alexandria A. Ballard, Kirk Hadley, Robert Kirvel, Kitty Madison, Mark McDaniel, Kelly Spruiell, and PamelaWilliams. Finally, the authors gratefully acknowledge the considerable visualization assistance provided by Deborah Dennison, Kwei-Yu Chu, JenniferRodriguez, Kathleen Fischer, and Bill Eme, as well as the assistance from summer students Erik Archibald, Erika Olsen, and Shaida Arbabha.This work could not have been accomplished without the extensive modeling and knowledge base built over decades by Department of Energy’s NationalNuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) and the national laboratories they operate. In particular Dr. Daniel Blumenthal of the NNSA Office of Emergency Response was invaluable in coordinating this activity with FEMA.
This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government, nor Sandia NationalLaboratories, nor Applied Research Associates, nor Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumesany legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use wouldnot infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does notnecessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. The views andopinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, and shall not beused for advertising or product endorsement purposes.
 Auspices Statement
This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.
Key contributions were made through the Modeling and Analysis Working Group by the following organizations:Funding and support provided by:John Donnelly (DC-FEMS)Millicent W. West (DC-HSEMA)Beverly Pritchett (DC-DOH);Jack Brown (VA-Arlington EM)John Reginaldi (MD-MEMA)Gene Taitano (VA- Fairfax PD)Scott Goldstein (Montgomery Fire)Joey Henderson (DHS-ONCRC)Peter LaPorte (WMATA)Geoff Hunter (WMATA)Jacques Singleton Sr. (DHS-ONCRC)Cheri Roe (DHS-ONCRC)John White (VA-Arlington FD)Dennis C Wood (MD-Prince George’s FD)Anthony Alexiou (Montgomery EM)Lamar Greene (DC-MPD)Hilton Burton (DC MPD)Krista Sweet (MD-MEMA)Timothy Spriggs (DC-HSEMA);Jason Stroud (DC-DOH);Corinne V Sorden (OSD-CAPE)Daniel Gerrig (OSD-CAPE)Jason Reis (OSD-CAPE)Gerald Troller, (CTOS)Dennis Dugan (CTOS)

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