is projected to bring €4
5 billion over 2012
20, withfairly modest inflows during 2012-14
billion). Receipts are projected togradually increase with the resumption of growth and improvements in the perception of economic prospects, before settling at a rate averaging about 2 percentof GDP per year. The projections
unchanged from the previous debt assessments
remain ambitious, but not unprecedented in international context.
Financial system support.
The cost of financial system support is estimated at
as in the February note, but above the €40
billion assumed in theautumn). The estimate reflects the results of the BlackRock diagnostic exercise, theimpact of the PSI (including its likely accounting treatment), and refined estimatesof resolution costs (as opposed to recapitalization costs). Recoveries, through the
sale of bank equity, are conservatively estimated to amount to about €16
billion andincluded under privatization receipts.
Central government balance sheet adjustments.
amount of €7
billion inarrears is assumed to be cleared in 2012
13, representing the stock of arrears tosuppliers outstanding at end-2011, and a buffer for clearance of any arrears that may be identified as 2011 fiscal results are finalized. This assumption is unchanged.. The
financing framework also builds a deposit buffer of €5
billion (on top of the existing
3 billion buffer) by end-2014. This is to address risks from unexpected revenue,spending or debt service developments, or to reduce Greece's financing needs in the post-program period if the buffer remains intact.
CAPB between 5 and 10 percent of GDPtotaladvancedcountriesfor 4 yearsPanama (1989-92); Canada (1997-2000); Italy (1997-00); Tunesia(1986-89); Austria (1976-79)53for 5-7 yearsTurkey (2000-06); Chile (2003-08);Jamaica (1983-88); New Zealand(1993-98); Barbados (1991-95);Denmark (1985-89)62for 8-10 yearsRomania (1982-89); Egypt (1993-00)20for 11-13 yearsMexico (19833-95); Israel (1983-94)20for 14-15 yearsBelgium (1990-04); Jamaica (1992-06); Bulgaria (1994-07)31Source: Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis World (IMF, 2010)Number of countriesPersistence of Large (Cyclically Adjusted) Primary Balances