Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
7Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
NIC 2010 Global Trends (A must read)

NIC 2010 Global Trends (A must read)

Ratings: (0)|Views: 843|Likes:
Published by t2p22
READ What they are planing for 2010.
In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010. The NIC, an independent government body, emphasises that its report is not about "crystal-ball gazing" but offers a range of potential futures, including the following key trends.
READ What they are planing for 2010.
In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010. The NIC, an independent government body, emphasises that its report is not about "crystal-ball gazing" but offers a range of potential futures, including the following key trends.

More info:

Published by: t2p22 on Dec 02, 2008
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

12/26/2012

pdf

text

original

 
NIC - Global Trends 2010
 
Global Trends 2010
Revised Edition
 November 1997
Contents
 
Scope Note
 
In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National
http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html (1 of 21) [2008-12-02 01:17:09]
 
NIC - Global Trends 2010
Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense Universityto identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of theglobe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of thepolitical world as they will appear in the year 2010.Participants in the conferences were drawn from academic institutions, journalism,business, the US Government, and other professions. Members of the NationalIntelligence Council collaborated with INSS and other conference participants inhelping to craft the agenda of the conferences. Although the proceedings wereunclassified, papers and comments were presented on a nonattribution basis.
Global Trends 2010 
is the result of the conference deliberations as well as follow-on discussions chaired by Dr. Richard Cooper, then-Chairman of the NIC. Theprincipal drafter was Barry Lowenkron, Director of the Council's Analytic Group.Since its limited publication in February 1997, the study has continued to generateongoing, widespread interest. As a result, the NIC decided to reissue the study andmake it available to the general public. Although the report was completed earlierthis year, we believe that the overall analyses and judgments presented still stand,buttressed by political, economic, and military trends which have unfolded over thecourse of 1997.A note on methodology is in order. Assessing the future of key states and regions bydefinition carries uncertainty. In some instances, such as the continued evolution inRussia or the growing potential of China, the level of uncertainty is higher becauseof the many key factors--domestic and international--at play. When the NIC andINSS undertook this project the driving principle--shared by all of those whoparticipated in the conferences--was to present what we believed to be the mostlikely consequences of global trends on key regions and states in 2010. Our intentwas not to produce an extensive list of alternative scenarios, although they werediscussed in the conferences. Nor was the study intended to "forecast" surprises.Genuine discontinuities--sharp nonevolutionary breaks with the past--are rare, andour focus is on evolutionary change. We emphasize throughout the document that aseries of smaller changes can, over time, result in significant changes, both withrespect to key countries and regions, and the overall characteristics of the world in2010.
 
Global Trends 2010
 The public debate on national security continues to center on a vision that is both
limited 
and
ambitious 
; limited in the sense of focusing on traditional war and peaceissues; ambitious in implying that governments still have the capacity to shapeevents decisively in the international arena. Such a vision will no longer encompassall the challenges we will face in 2010.
http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html (2 of 21) [2008-12-02 01:17:09]
 
NIC - Global Trends 2010
 
The New Concept of Order Emerges . . .
 
The structure of international relations has been based primarily on relationsbetween states, not developments within them. This was true whether underbalance of power politics of the 19th century, superpower diplomacy of the last fiftyyears, or efforts at collective security as embodied in the United Nations. In all threevariations, order rested fundamentally on a stable arrangement of power amongstates. States, in turn, were masters within their borders. This has been the hallmarkof the international system that emerged at the end of World War II and theenvironment within which the United States has become the global superpower.That system is drawing to an end. Three changes, likely to become morepronounced over the next 10-15 years, will render traditional approaches insufficient:
 
First, most conflicts today are internal, not between states.
This tendency willcontinue, and states will find their attention increasingly riveted, and resourcescommitted, to dealing with what goes on in countries: shifts in population, theexpectation of--and demand for--material progress, and attendant demandson food, water, and energy.
 
Second, some states will fail to meet the basic requirements that bind citizens to their governments 
--essential services, protection, and an environmentconducive to stability and growth. In some instances public expectations willoutrun national capacity or governmental abilities. When these states fail,refugee flows, or worse--ethnic or civil conflict, and even state disintegration--occur, with the potential for outside intervention.
 
Third, governments 
whose states are relatively immune from poverty andpolitical instability will still
find that they are losing control of significant parts of their national agendas due to the globalization and expansion of the economy,and the continuing revolution in information technology.
"National economicpolicy" in an era of globalization of trade and finance is fast becoming anoxymoron. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), from multinationalbusinesses to trans-national relief agencies, will not supplant the power ofgovernments, but they will weaken them. Governments will have limitedavenues for influencing the agendas of these organizations. The good news isthat governments will derive benefits from technology that moves information,goods, and services rapidly. The bad news from the perspective of
http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html (3 of 21) [2008-12-02 01:17:09]

Activity (7)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 hundred reads
1 thousand reads
Mehdi Mouhaoui liked this
Jānis Erdmanis liked this
Silendo liked this
merlin3650 liked this
Tri Mai liked this

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->