from the Mind of Kalidas Defrausting Liquidity Freeze Page 1 of 7

Interest Rates - Liquidity Crisis

Investors’ Appetite for Risk Related Return (RRR)
When one wants to make tons of money, he should
be surrounded by thousands of fools, says an old
adage on the stock market. It reiterated itself when Warren
Buffet announced investment of $ 5 billions in Goldman
Sachs (GS) and $ 3 billions in General Electric (GE) fetching
him 10% interest per annum in addition to free warrants
convertible into shares for next 5 years at currently
depressed prices.

It was considered by many as signs of confidence from one

of the most revered and legendary investors of all time, Mr.
Warren Buffet. No one bothered to ask the investee
companies, why was he given the yield of 10% that was
normally associated with the junk grade bonds or
companies. Have this bluest of blue chip companies
degenerated into junk status? Are they next on line of
Warren Buffet Transformation
“Olympic 2008 Parade of Bankrupt financiers?”
From Investor To Money lender
No one even noticed the rapid transformation of the legendary investor into usurious Money Lender
at his advanced age of 78. No one even noticed that there was no real liquidity crisis, but the lenders
like Mr. Buffet have lined up on the side line to seek the Risk Related Return (RRR) from the potential
borrowers. “Greater the Risk, Higher you Pay” was the simple message displayed on the foreheads
of every possible lender.

Otherwise, when the FED was willing to lend at meager 1.5%, why should the GS and GE pay up
10% to Mr. Buffet? Within hours of receiving $ 3 billions from Mr. Buffet, GE rushed to the
commercial paper market to raise further money for the payment of wages and salaries, and was glad
to see the FED chief Mr. Bernanke dressed up in Santa Clause, disbursing billions more at just 2%
(cut to 1.5% on following day). In short, $ 3 billions of Mr. Warren Buffet appear to have “gone with
the wind “within hours.

What Mr. Warren Buffer announced was misunderstood and misinterpreted by almost everyone on
Wall Street, Main Street, Capitol Hill, Fed, and entire community of journalists, analysts,
commentators and interviewers. He meant, but did not say it, that the real market rates were
extremely high, regardless of billions of dollars being printed in the backyard of Federal Reserve for
free distribution later, and that no one was willing to lend unless he was rewarded with the return
associated with the risk. (RRR)

Copyright © Kalidas 2008

from the Mind of Kalidas Defrausting Liquidity Freeze Page 2 of 7
Across the Atlantic, in London, relatively free market, the LIBOR rates rose to the highest, and yet no
one was emerging as lender to lend to even commercial bank.

Why lenders look for higher return when the risk increases?

Short Term Interest If the lender lends today $100 for just 3% (when the FED rates is only
Rates may spike to 1.5%), and that loan goes bad, he has to lend it 33 times (100/3) more just
to recover the old loan, and that too, provided no new loans going bad.

24%
It did happen in mid 80s’
If he had lent at say 24%, and if the loan goes bad, he has to lend only 4
times more to recover his old loans, presuming again all new loans remain
good. This is why the local governments have to raise the funds at 20% or
more in some cases. That is, there are lenders apart from Mr. Buffett.

When the risk profile of large banks have increased to the extent of bankruptcy running into hundreds
of billions of dollars, the money market does become very tight, and the lenders withdraw into
shelters when the market rates continue to be managed low by FED. The action of the FED to pump
the markets with over $900 billions a day before and cutting the rate by 0.5% does not help. The
money goes to bankrupt banks that merely set off the new funds against old losses. They do not lend
more.

Mere injection of liquidity is not enough. The FED has to make it conditional, that if $50 billions are
given to say, Citi group, it should deploy funds only for granting new loans or buying the new
Commercial papers issued by various corporate business with suitable sub limit so that the money is
distributed widely. Supposing, the sub limit is set to $ 500,000 for small businesses to $2 billions for
large businesses like General Motors, they can carry on business by paying their employees the
wages and salaries.

Float a New Bank or use smaller Regional Banks and fund them with $ 200 billions
Bush Administration may extend new loans through new bank or existing smaller banks to small
businesses, large corporate entities, and consumers, subject to real tangible security with first lien.
Limit the loans up to 25% of their annual sales, so that money rolls over every 3 months at least.

Why avoid large existing banks?

All large banks are saddled with billions of dollars of old bad loans. Most of them are irrecoverable as
they have no security backing. They are secondary papers with second lien. The primary security has
been foreclosed, seized and sold by the primary lender, with nothing left for secondary holders. By
funding these bankrupt banks is like adding fuel to fire. Good money would be thrown after bad
money. When the money is scarce, the efforts should be to use the new supply as efficiently as
possible.

The banks that are almost bankrupt may be asked to transfer deposit and loan accounts (including
primary mortgaged loans with first lien (not the secondary derivative papers) to new banks, so that
normal business continues.

Old banks with billions of dollars of bad loans without security may be merged with each other so that
cross obligations are set off against each other. If after this adjustment, they are still unviable, let
them die the natural death or hold the talks with debtors to accept only 20% of the outstanding debts
repayable in next 5 years. Thus, the liability of the large banks will be reduced to 20% and liquidated
@ 4% over next 5 years.

Higher Rates are biggest enemy to leveraged derivatives and swaps

We are in the midst of highly leveraged economy. It has to be deleveraged. These derivatives thrived
in low interest rates environments where the cost of swap was very low. If the rates rise to reasonable
level, even up to 9%, all leveraged transactions will be forced to reverse immediately. At the same
time, the Bush Administration may fund the banks Mortgaged loans to consumers at special rate of
say 3%, so that their interest cost does not rise. This kind of differential interest scheme may bring
immediate stability in the market place.
Copyright © Kalidas 2008
from the Mind of Kalidas Defrausting Liquidity Freeze Page 3 of 7
Higher Rates also help Insurers
Ask AIG – why and where did it lose in billions of dollars, when there were not much claims due to
natural calamities, fire, flooding, or death of individuals. They did not lose in their core business.

The insurance companies receive free premium income from the insured. They found difficult to
invest in higher yield long term treasury or local government bonds or well rated corporate bonds.

Mr. Greenspan has effectively killed the market of long term treasury bonds (10 to 30 years) by
artificially lowering interest rates or even cancelling 30 years bonds altogether for 4 years (2003
onwards) so that interest servicing cost for the treasury remain artificially low on its massive public
debt.

When the insurance company found no alternative long term high yielding safe treasury investment
they started looking for exotic derivatives that used to give them higher yields, without realizing what
they were getting into. The companies like AIG finally started buying highly risk derivatives like CDO,
(Collateralized Debt Obligations) CDS (Credit Default Swaps) and CLN (Credit Linked Notes) without
realizing the financial risk and legal evaluation of the securities to backed.

If the insurance companies had option to invest into say, 6% 10 year bonds or 8% in 30 year bonds,
they would not have invested into derivative papers with fake back up securities.

Money should have some cost

The Money has been printed so much that the toy homes can be built by the American
children with real US dollars. If Paulson and Bernanke prints $1 trillions now, they
will have to print 100 Billion $10 Currency Notes with the logo of ex-Presidents. If
they are spread on the 8 lane high way in United States, it will cover 22,600 Miles

The economists like Greenspan and treasury secretaries like Rupert Rubin or Henry Paulson (from
Goldman Sachs) made the money worthless the moment they were issued or created. Their money
did not have material cost 1% to 2% for most of the times. Their theory was that low interest will boost
the stock market that will increase GDP, which will increase the value of their stocks held in Goldman
Sachs. This was a myth.
Copyright © Kalidas 2008
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Low Rates do not increase GDP or lead to healthy growth

Example,
Look at Japan.. It has been following near Zero interest rate policy since 1994. 14 years have passed
and its Nikkei has slumped from 38000 to 9000+ yesterday (lost 75%) with no perceptible growth in
real terms. Retiring Japanese with 10 millions yen find difficult to take care of himself in his retiring
days because he does not earn anything on his life time savings. If he spends, he feels that his
savings will be empty in a few years. If he was getting even 6% interest, he would have got interest
income of 600,000 yen which he could spend without seeing his savings depleted.

Reasonable high Long term rates do encourage savings and increase GDP in real terms
Example,
In country like India, the growth is robust because long term interest rates for Provident fund etc are
over 10%. This encourages savings from where the people spend without seeing their savings
depleted. The PF amount is invested into long term high yielding Government bonds that assures
steady decent income.

Look at what happened in USA

And look at what these Greenspan and company did for United States. Often he was applauded for
his brilliant management of economy. His philosophy was that Consumers contribute to GDP, so to
make them spend more and more, lower the interest rates. That made the consumers to contract
more and more debts – credit card, car loans, educational loan, home loans, top up loans on home
mortgages and host of other loan products that fatten the banks with usurious interest rates.

Look at the signs at large stores selling Car to furniture. No interest for 6 months, no payment for 12
months….etc. This is what happens when the money is free and does not have cost. The people just
become spendthrifts and go bankrupt. If they find difficult to pay – file for bankruptcy – that’s all. It is
more like “Payable when able”

Money, Treasury and Gold

If money does not have cost, they are more like Toilet paper. They can be printed overnight in
Bernanke Press. Treasury bonds are also papers – can be printed at the sweet will of President Bush
or Paulson or Bernanke. Papers like Dollar and Treasury bonds can be printed and re-printed like
books are reprinted with popular demand. Gold can not be produced artificially – it has to be dug from
the ground

Why Interest rate will go to 24% to even 30%

If you can not control inflation, control inflation numbers, were the theory, belief and practice of
Greenspan. He invented new theory of inflation – Core Inflation and Non –Core inflation which was
excluding violent food and energy prices.

Goddamn idiot. Food and energy constitute over 40% of household budget. Every family has at least
2 or 3 children, one of two college going young adults, 2 to 4 cars depending on the number of adult
members in the family. How could you exclude the cost of Energy and Food from inflation and adjust
your interest rate policy.

When I left stock broking field, the CRB index was 191 – it rose to over 430 recently, that is gain of
240 pts in less than 7 years. This index covers over 17 elements of daily use – from Orange juice to
Oil to dairy products and commodities of daily use. In other words, the inflation rose by 31% per year
(240 divide by 7). The United States was having “negative interest rates” by at least 25% for over 7
years in a row.

Those rates are now catching up and there is nothing the government can do. The creative
management of inflationary numbers (called manipulations in layman’s terms) can not last for ever.
You have to pay for it. The pay time has finally come in October 2008.

The interest rates in United States have to rise to 24% minimum to weed out all excesses in the
system that was built under the lousy regime of Alan Greenspan. May be high interest rates may
Copyright © Kalidas 2008
from the Mind of Kalidas Defrausting Liquidity Freeze Page 5 of 7
remain for only 6 months, but that will force everyone to start respecting their own dollar.. The lesson
that United States will learn is that “Money is not Free” and do not take it for a free ride.

How to defrost the present liquidity freeze?

1. Stop cutting Interest rates – in fact raise interest rates up to 6% in 6 months in
increments of 1% per move. Higher rates will bring out money lenders into the market
that will force down the interest rates later with more participation. Currently, their
participation in almost NIL
2. Adopt “differential interest rate policy”.
a. Fund the banks of their mortgage finance portfolio with cheaper funds @ 2.5%
for the time being. (MFR = Mortgage Finance Rates)
b. Fund the banks of their Credit card portfolio with cheaper funds @ 2.5 % over
the 30 year MFR
c. Other bank borrowings to businesses be permitted @ 3.0 % over 30 Year
Mortgage Finance Rate (that is, if MFR is 2.5%, then other commercial
borrowings to be 5.5%).
d. Please note that charging of even 9.5 % interest rate (based on maximum MFR
of 6.5%) from FED to banks on commercial borrowing is not excessive. This is
the ruling Prime Rae in most of the Asian financial centers and emerging
economies.
e. Bank to customer interest rates may be restricted to 2% over the Fed funds
rate for respective category.
f. Example, if MFR funding is at 2.5%, then the customer lending rate may be
4.5% (2% over 2.5
g. The idea of allowing only 2% above Fed funds rate is to ensure that the bank
does pass on the benefit of the rate cuts in future to every section of the
society. Currently, they may pay more but much less than the market rates.
3. Merge 3 or 4 large banks that have inter-swap positions outstanding.
This will cancel out cross obligations of each other.
4. Then Consolidate the fund based external debt (not deposits).
a. Call the creditors of bad loans to work out discounted solution, agreeing to pay
not over 20% of debt outstanding (or more if there is real security,
b. Extend Federal guarantee to such amount and charge the respective banks
guarantee commission @ 2% per annum.
c. Take some equity for such help or warrants convertible into shares at any time
for next 10 years.
d. The creditors will have no choice but to accept the compromise, otherwise they
will lose everything.
EXAMPLE: If the total bad debt outstanding is $ 50 billions, reach a
compromise for $ 10 billions. Extend the Federal Guarantee to $10 Billions and
charge the bank guarantee commission @ 2% of guaranteed amount ($200
Millions per year).
5. After all these adjustments,. Ask the bank to come out with secondary public
issue
a. of which the State may take up 10% of public offer. This will infuse the
confidence to investing public.

Copyright © Kalidas 2008

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6. Extend the Tax Cuts as under:

a. Corporate tax be cut by 5% now, followed by another 3% in second year, 2% in
third. Total 10%
b. The present corporate taxes of 35% is too high for anyone to invest in USA It
will come down to 25% in 3 years. (In my proposal it is brought down to 18% in
progressive manner)
c. This will increase the real earnings of the company and boost its stock price,
enable raising of new capital and also boost the stock market. There will be real
strength in the economy, not paper trading or manipulations that both Paulson
and Bernanke are indulging in.

7. Personal Tax Cut may be extended by reducing the initial tax slabs
substantially.
The initial tax slab be drastically reduced so as to benefit the low wage and middle
income wage earners.
a. While Interest rate may have some negative effect on the market (in fact it will
have none, because slightly more interest rate is more desirable than
wholesale collapse of financial system),
b. the lowering of Corporate Tax and Personal Tax will have significant positive
effect on the entire range of capital markets throughout the United States.

My Letter to the President Bush was ignored and they blew up over $ 3.5 trillions in
15 days
In my book, I have designed full range of tables of Income Tax for the corporate sector
and also Individuals. The plan is so comprehensive that it will be liked by Individuals and
corporate alike. Not only that, I have given most valuable suggestions to increase the
revenue from other sources, so what is lost in taxation, is more than compensated from
the other revenue stream.
I only regret that the no one in the White House paid any attention to my 4 page letter
which contained the summary of 18 chapters of blue print for the recovery of United
States of Americal. I had also warned that if the immediate actions were not taken, worse
consequences would follow. That was my letter recceived by White House on 25 Aug
2008 and the situation started worsening 15 days later. And you know what happened
from second week of September. I had also sent a copy of that letter to the Consul
General of Hong Kong for his information and also for proper identifcation purpose.

By not paying any attention to such important letter, at a time when the solution
was eluding the nation, the Bush Administration blew up over $ 2.5 trillions in loss
of market capitalization and also over $1 trillions in so called "bail out" plans.
I would release the letter shortly on this blog site within a few days.

Kalidas, Hong Kong

10-Oct-2008
Article Ref: 08-006
Address: 4F, 3 Wood Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong Email: kalidasji@gmail.com
Tel: 2573 2604 Fax:: 2573 2635 Cell: 9100 2754 Country Code”: +852
Copyright © Kalidas 2008
from the Mind of Kalidas Defrausting Liquidity Freeze Page 7 of 7

Who is Kalidas?
Hi, everybody. Kalidas is the screen name of Anil Selarka from Hong Kong, one of the most vibrant city in
the world, be it as an entertainer; business, money or free wheeling
center or an ambassador of China, call it what you like. Hong Kong is a
Rainbow of all cities – colorful, musical or soulful. Make it a point to visit
this city.

Kalidas is a well qualified with a degree in Science, Law, Banking and

Cost Accountancy (in part). He was an International banker for 19 years
followed by 16 years of stint as stockbroker specializing in US Stocks,
Bonds and Economy, Hong Kong and Indian stocks. He is also a
Convertible Bond specialist, a Bond trader and a problem solver for every
kind of financial situation - good, bad or ugly.

An expert in reading US economy and world economic scene for over 21

years, he has seen through the crashes of 1987, Asian Monetary Crisis
and subsequent crashes specific to Hong Kong and in general to major
world markets.

Kalidas has written a highly researched book called “ Sub

Prime Resolved “ – a comprehensive solution for the
current economic crisis, covering every issue or poser
being asked by practically every interviewer to leading
experts without getting any answer.

There is no one in the world at this point of time, that come

anywhere close to the solution outlined by Kalidas. The
book is rightly called “The Bible for Recovery of United
States of America” to be published soon.

All solutions presently offered in massive $700 billions bail

out will completely fail. Kalidas' solution does not involve
any expenses but create almost $2 trillion income in short
time and further $2.4 trillions in next 3 years. This is
highly imaginative solution that eludes all.

He has extra ordinary sense, almost sixth sense, to

anticipate the major economic events months or years in
advance. He also has special ability to judge the potential
effects of any major events almost instantaneously. An
extremely analytical and logical, he has track record of
being proved correct and right on spot over 95% in last 15
years.

Kalidas has also invented a special theory on numbers, known as Mystical Numbers, that apply incredibly to
every market with great accuracy – be they stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, properties, retail stores,
fish and vegetable markets, and in every form of business or personal life. The ordinary people are unable to
follow chart or its technical jargons like MACD, Head & shoulders, Moving Averages, Support, resistance etc.
However, they can understand simple numbers any where, every where. This is where Kalidas excels. He is
currently writing a book on this subject that may be published in April 2009.

If you happen to read Kalidas book or his blog, please send your comments to kalidasji@gmail.com . He will
endeavor to improve quality of his work day by day with your valuable feedback. –Kalidas’ blog link is
http://anilselarka.wordpress.com/

With Regards and Greetings to you and your lovely family.

From the Mind of Kalidas.

Copyright © Kalidas 2008