How to Prove Causality10.3.2008

How to Prove Causality

In behavioral sciences, it is often the purpose of any experimentation to provecausality of two variables. A person may assert that the height of a person determineshow fast they run. This is a perfectly acceptable assertion to make; however, it has to beaffirmed by statistical analysis.There are four criteria that have to be met in order to prove causality:1.Association2.Prediction3.Excluding Alternative Hypotheses4.Dose Dependence

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AssociationWhen comparing two variables the best way of doing so is via Regression(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis

).Regression is the first step in proving causality. It represents an association between twoitems on a linear scale. A regression analysis is depicted visually below.If regression analysis exhibits some sort of association between the two variables within acertain statistical variance, then one can fairly claim that there is a relationship betweenthe two items (a correlation).In the behavioral sciences, in order for the sample size to be large enough to prove astatistical relationship, the following chart is used, developed by Cohen & Cohen in“Applied Multiple Regression…” 2nd edition, 1983 pg. 530 1

How to Prove Causality10.3.2008Desired power Population

r [Effect Size Expressed as r]

.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.90.2516642201286543.503849542241510764.60489121532918129652/3570141623421141075.70616152663723151075.75692171744125171186.80783193

4628181296.858952219652322114106.90104625811261372416117.95130832213975463019138.9918284491941046340271811Furthermore, in behavioral sciences, a population effect size of .30 (column) with adesired power of .80 (row) is an acceptable statistical measure. The reason we look to .30is because this is a generally accepted rate for medium-size effects. The reason we look tothe .80 is due to statistical power. The .80 represents he likelihood that we are going toactually see a statistically significant result if a significant relationship does indeed exist.The minimum amount of samples necessary to achieve this statistical significance is 84samples.

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PredictionThe second step to proving causality is prediction. Prediction entails making a logicalassumption as to how events will transpire and then testing for it. Therefore, theassumption could be made that tall people will run faster on the basis that they havelonger legs, have a higher metabolic rate, have stronger muscles, etc. Being able toreliably predict something is crucial to causality.

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Excluding Alternative HypothesesAlternative hypotheses arise with confounding variables(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confounding_variable

). For example, assume that a child'sweight and a country's gross domestic product rise with time. A person carrying out anexperiment could measure weight and GDP, and conclude that a higher GDP causeschildren to gain weight, or that children's weight gain boosts the GDP. However, theconfounding variable, time, was not accounted for, and is the real cause of both rises(Wikipedia).Each relevant alternative hypothesis has to be accounted for and negated in order for your proposition or assertion to explain the phenomenon being described. Your assertion needsto go above and beyond all other variables in order for it to be considered causal.2