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Alberta Provincial Election Tracking March 26

Alberta Provincial Election Tracking March 26

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Published by Stephen Taylor

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Published by: Stephen Taylor on Mar 28, 2012
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07/06/2014

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 8 York Street, 2
nd
Floor, Ottawa, ON K1N 5S6
 
2012
Greg Dunlop, MBA, CMRPCampaign Research3/27/2012
Alberta Provincial Election
Tracking Poll
First in a series of weekly tracking ITRpolls from Campaign Research self -sponsored to measure popular vote byparty candidate (ballot question), bestpremier and other topical issues duringthe 2012 Alberta Provincial Electioncampaign.Research design and analysis accordingto the Market Research and IntelligenceAssociation (MRIA) principles by aCertified Market Research Professional(CMRP)
 
 
TM Trademark of Campaign Research Inc.
 
Methodology
 
Sample and Response
Random sample of 18,000 households drawn from Alberta residential phone database of885,250 households.
Six question interactive touch response (ITR) poll on Monday March 26
th
, 2012 between19:00 and 19:42 pm MT.
Of 17,995 households dialed, 7,532 live answer and 924 responded.
Respondents under 18 were ineligible to complete the survey (62 respondents).
Weighting
Raw data was weighted based on age, gender and region based on the following factors:
o
Profile of age and gender by the three regions (Calgary, Edmonton and Rest ofAlberta) in the 2006 Census from Statistics Canada.
o
Turnout by age and gender based on Elections Canada survey in Alberta.
o
Overall turnout by region based on the 2008 Alberta Provincial Election.
o
Adjusted by region to the 2011 Census Population by region
o
Sample size by age category (3 categories used), gender and region for a total of 18weighting cells.
 
 
TM Trademark of Campaign Research Inc.
 
Alberta Provincial Election Weekly Tracking Poll
(March 26)
 
Popular Vote
Ballot Question
Question: Thinking of provincial politics, if a provincial election was held today which candidate would you vote for? (Provincialparty candidates listed)
 
N = 818 with margin of error +/- 3.4% points 19 times out of 20N = 667 with margin of error +/- 3.7% points 19 times out of 20

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