1

PHAN LY THUYET













2

CHUONG z
TONG @UAT VE PHAN TCH HOAT ONG
KINH DOANH

1.1. NOI DUNG PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH
1.1.1. Khai niem
Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh (Operating activities analysis) la mon hoc
nghien cu qua trnh san xuat kinh doanh, bang nhng phng phap rieng, ket
hp vi cac ly thuyet kinh te va cac phng phap ky thuat khac nham en viec
phan tch, anh gia tnh hnh kinh doanh va nhng nguyen nhan anh hng en
ket qua kinh doanh, phat hien nhng quy luat cua cac mat hoat ong trong doanh
nghiep da vao cac d lieu lch s, lam c s cho cac d bao va hoach nh
chnh sach.
e quan ly doanh nghiep trong nen kinh te th trng nh hien nay, oi hoi
cac doanh nghiep khong nhng phai to chc hach toan kinh doanh mot cach
chnh xac ma con phai tch cc to chc cong tac phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh.
Cung vi ke toan va cac khoa hoc kinh te khac, phan tch hoat ong kinh la mot
trong nhng cong cu ac lc e quan ly va ieu hanh co hieu qua cac hoat ong
cua doanh nghiep.
Tien than cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh la cong viec co tnh xem xet
n gian mot so ch tieu tong quat da tren d lieu cua bang tong ket tai san
con goi la phan tch ke toan hay ke toan noi bo. Do s oi hoi ngay cang cao
cua nhu cau quan ly, s m rong ve quy mo cung nh xu hng i vao chieu sau
va chat lng cua cac hoat ong doanh nghiep, phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh
vi noi dung, oi tng pham vi va phng phap nghieu cu rieng biet, tat yeu
tr thanh mot khoa hoc oc lap va ngay cang hoan chnh.


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Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh hng en th trng khong phai nham xay
dng nhng ke hoach mot cach may moc, cng nhac ma la cong cu phuc vu cho
nhng quyet nh ngan han va dai han, oi hoi chu ong, linh hoat ngay ca oi
vi cac mat hoat ong hang ngay cua doanh nghiep. Muc tieu cua phan tch hoat
ong kinh doanh v the tng ong vi cac mon hoc mi xuat hien chng vai
thap nien tr lai ay chu yeu cac nc phat trien, nh: ke toan quan tr
management accounting; phan tch bao cao tai chnh the analysis of financial
statements, quan tr tai chnh financial management.
1.1.2. oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh
oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh la qua trnh kinh doanh va
ket qua kinh doanh tc s viec xay ra qua kh; phan tch, ma muc ch cuoi
cung la uc ket chung thanh quy luat e nhan thc hien tai va nham chung en
tng lai cho tat ca cac mat hoat ong cua mot doanh nghiep.
Cac nha phan tch tm cach lng hoa nhng tac ong en ket qua kinh
doanh. o la nhng yeu to cua qua trnh cung cap, san xuat, tieu thu va mua ban
hang hoa, thuoc lnh vc san xuat, thng mai, dch vu. ong thi cung can phai
nghien cu tnh hnh s dung cac nguon lc: von, vat t, lao ong va at ai;
nhng nhan to noi tai cua doanh nghiep hoac khach quan t pha th trng va
moi trng kinh doanh, a trc tiep anh hng en hieu qua cua cac mat hoat
ong doanh nghiep.
Do vay, qua trnh va ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh khong phai la cac so
lieu chung chung ma phai c lng hoa cu the thanh cac ch tieu kinh te va
phan tch can hng en viec thc hien cac ch tieu o e anh gia.
V du:


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Noi en li tc th ay la li tc trc thue hay sau thue, li tc at c
trong 06 thang hay la ca nam, li tc tat ca cac mat hoat ong hay ch la ket qua
cua mot mat hang chnh nao o.
Hay khi noi en cac nhan to tac ong, ta co ch tieu sau:
Gia tr san lng = Tong so gi lam viec x Gia tr bnh quan mot gi
oi tung phan tch ay la ch tieu gia tr san lng co hai nhan to tac
ong la tong so gi va gia tr bnh quan mot gi lam viec. Viec thc hien ke
hoach cua oi tng phan tch se tuy thuoc vao viec thc hien ke hoach cua hai
nhan to tac ong tren.
1.1.3. Nhiem vu cu the cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh
anh gia gia ket qua thc hien c so vi ke hoach hoac so vi
tnh hnh thc hien ky trc, cac doanh nghiep tieu bieu cung nganh
hoac ch tieu bnh quan noi nganh va cac thong so th trng;
Phan tch nhng nhan to noi tai va khach quan a anh hng en
tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach;
Phan tch hieu qua cac phng an kinh doanh hien tai va cac d an
au t dai han;
Xay dng ke hoach da tren ket qua phan tch;
Phan tch d bao, phan tch chnh sach va phan tch rui ro tren cac
mat hoat ong cua doanh nghiep;
Lap bao cao ket qua phan tch, thuyet minh va e xuat bien phap
quan tr. Cac bao cao c the hien bang li van, bang bieu va cac
loai o th hnh tng, thuyet phuc.





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1.2. CAC PHNG PHAP S DUNG TRONG PHAN TCH
1.2.1. Phng phap so sanh
e phng phap nay c phat huy het tnh chnh xac va khoa hoc, trong
qua trnh phan tch can thc hien ay u ba bc sau:
Bc 1: La chon cac tieu chuan e so sanh.
Trc het chon ch tieu cua mot ky lam can c e so sanh, c goi la ky
goc. Tuy theo muc tieu nghien cu ma la chon ky goc so sanh cho thch hp.
Neu:
Ky goc la nam trc: Muon thay uc xu hng phat trien cua oi
tng phan tch.
Ky goc la nam ke hoach (hay la nh mc): Muon thay c viec
chap hanh cac nh mc a e ra co ung theo d kien hay khong.
Ky goc la ch tieu trung bnh cua nganh (hay khu vc hoac quoc te):
Muon thay c v tr cua doanh nghiep va kha nang ap ng th
trng cua doanh nghiep.
Ky goc la nam thc hien: La ch tieu thc hien trong ky hach toan
hay ky bao cao.
Bc 2: ieu kien so sanh c.
e phep so sanh co y ngha th ieu kien tien quyet la cac ch tieu c
em so sanh phai am bao tnh chat so sanh c ve khong gian va thi gian:
Ve thi gian: Cac ch tieu phai c tnh trong cung mot khoang thi gian
hach toan nh nhau (cu the nh cung thang, quy, nam ) va phai ong nhat tren
ca ba mat:
Cung phan anh noi dung kinh te.
Cung mot phng phap tnh toan.
Cung mot n v o lng.


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Ve khong gian: Cac ch tieu kinh te can phai c quy oi ve cung quy mo
tng t nh nhau (cu the la cung mot bo phan, phan xng, mot nganh )
Bc 3: Ky thuat so sanh.
e ap ng cho cac muc tieu so sanh ngi ta thng s dung cac ky thuat
so sanh sau:
So sanh bang so tuyet oi: La ket qua cua phep tr gia tr so cua ky phan
tch so vi ky goc, ket qua so sanh nay bieu hien khoi lng, quy mo cua cac
hien tng kinh te.
So sanh bang so tng oi: La ket qua cua phep chia gia tr so cua ky
phan tch so vi ky goc. Ket qua so sanh nay bieu hien toc o phat trien, mc o
pho bien cua cua cac ch tieu kinh te.
V du: Co so lieu tai mot doanh nghiep sau:
Chenh lech
So
TT
Khoan
muc
Ke
hoach
Thc
hien
So tuyet oi
So T
(%)
1 Doanh thu 100.000 130.000 +30.000 30,0
2 Gia von hang ban 80.000 106.000 +26.000 32,5
3 Chi ph hoat ong 12.000 15.720 +3.720 31,0
4 Li nhuan 8.000 8.280 +280 3,5
Bang 1.1. Bang phan tch bien ong cac khoan muc
* Chu y: Chi ph hoat ong gom chi ph ban hang cong vi chi ph quan ly
doanh nghiep.
So sanh tnh hnh thc hien (TH) so vi ke hoach (KH):
Doanh thu: at 130%, vt 30% (30 trieu ong)
Gia von hang ban: at 132,5%, vt 32,5 % (26 trieu ong)
Chi ph hoat ong: at 131%, vt 31% (3,720 trieu ong)


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Li nhuan: at 103,5%, vt 3,5% (0,28 trieu ong)
Ta hay cung phan tch ve ty suat li nhuan tren doanh thu e co ket luan
cuoi cung:
Ty suat LN ke hoach = (8.000/100.000)x100% = 8%
Ty suat LN thc hien = (8.280/130.000)x100% = 6,37%
Nhan xet:
Trong ky thc hien doanh thu vt ke hoach 30%, tuy nhien cac ch tieu ve
gia von va chi ph kinh doanh co toc o tang trng nhanh hn so vi toc o tang
trung doanh thu (32,5% va 31%) v vay lam cho li nhuan tang khong ang ke.
Mat khac, ty trong cua chi ph so vi doanh thu qua hai ky nh sau:
( )
( )
80.000 + 12.000
Ke hoach: 100% 92%
100.000
106.000 + 15.720
Thc hien: 100% 93, 63%
130.000
=
=

Ty trong chi ph trong ky at va vt so vi ke hoach: 93,63% - 92%=
1,63% a lam cho ty suat li nhuan giam i tng ng: 6,37% - 8% = -1,63%.
Ket luan cua quan tr:
Phai tm cach kiem soat chi ph ban hang va tiet kiem chi ph kinh
doanh;
Gi toc o tang chi ph hang ban va chi ph kinh doanh thap hn toc
o tang doanh so, nham nang cao hieu qua hoat ong.
So sanh bang so bnh quan: La dang ac biet cua so sanh tuyet oi, bieu
hien tnh ac trng chung ve mat so lng, nham phan anh ac iem chung cua
mot n v kinh te, mot bo phan hay mot tong the chung co cung mot tnh chat.
So sanh mc ong tng oi co ieu chnh theo quy mo chung:


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Mc ong tng oi la ket qua so sanh gia tr so ky phan tch vi tr so
cua ky goc, nhng a c ieu chnh theo mot he so cua ch tieu co lien quan,
ma ch tieu co lien quan nay quyet nh quy mo cua ch tieu phan tch.
Mc ong tng oi = Ky thc hien (Ky goc x he so ieu chnh)
Ta co cong thc xac nh cu the cho tng oi tng:
Bien ong doanh thu = Doanh thu TH - (Doanh thu KH Ch so gia )
Bien ong quy lng = Quy lng TH - (Quy lng KH %hoan tha nh DT)

V du: Tai doanh nghiep X trong quy I nam 2006, tong mc tien lng cua
cong nhan thc te (ky phan tch) a chi ra la 300 trieu ong. Nhng neu theo d
kien (ky ke hoach hay ky trc) th tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan co the
chi ra la 200 trieu ong. Gia s doanh nghiep trong quy I nay a hoan thanh ke
hoach san xuat san lng san pham bang 160%. Neu goi H la he so ieu chnh,
F
1
, F
0
la tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat ky thc hien va ky ke
hoach, th mc bien ong tng oi c xac nh nh sau:
So tuyet oi: F = F
1
F
0
. H
1
0
So tng oi: 100%
.
F
F H

Trong o, F
0
.H la tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan ky ke hoach, nhng
a c ieu chnh theo trnh o hoan thanh ke hoach ve san lng san pham.
Van dung cong thc ta tnh c:
F = 300 200 x 1,6 = -20 (trieu ong)
300
Hay tng ng v i: 100% 93, 7%
200 1,6
=

Nhan xet:
Tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat thc te chi ra khong phai la
tang len, ma a tiet kiem c 20 trieu ong so vi ke hoach, vi so tng oi
giam i 6,3%. Ngha la neu doanh nghiep X hoan thanh ke hoach san pham


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hang hoa la 100% th c phep chi ra la 200 trieu ong tong mc tien lng cua
cong nhan. Do doanh nghiep a hoan thanh ke hoach san lng san pham bang
160%, th c phep chi ra la 320 trieu ong ve tong mc tien lng, nhng tren
thc te doanh nghiep ch chi ra la 300 trieu ong nen a tiet kiem c 20 trieu
ong ve chi ph tien lng cong nhan, vi so giam tng oi la 6,3% (93,7% -
100%).
1.2.2. Phng phap thay the lien hoan
La phng phap ma o cac nhan to lan lt c thay the theo mot trnh
t nhat nh e xac nh chnh xac mc o anh hng cua chung en ch tieu can
phan tch (oi tng phan tch) bang cach co nh cac nhan to khac trong moi lan
thay the.
Bc 1: Xac nh cong thc.
La thiet lap moi quan he cua cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch
qua mot cong thc nhat nh. Cong thc gom tch so cac nhan to anh hng en
ch tieu phan tch.
V du:
Doanh thu = Gia ban x San lng tieu thu

Chi ph NVL
trc tiep
=
So lng
san xuat
x
Lng NVL
tieu hao
x
n gia nguyen
vat lieu
Khi xay dng cong thc can thc hien theo mot trnh t nhat nh, t nhan
to san lng en nhan to chat lng, neu co nhieu nhan to lng hoac nhieu
nhan to chat th sap xep nhan to chu yeu trc va nhan to th yeu sau.
Bc 2: Xac nh cac oi tng phan tch.
So sanh so thc hien vi so lieu goc, chenh lech co c o chnh la oi
tng phan tch.
( Nhan to ) ( Nhan to )


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Goi Q la ch tieu can phan tch;
Goi a, b, c la trnh t cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch;
The hien bang phng trrnh: Q = a . b . c
at Q
1
: Ch tieu ky phan tch, Q
1
= a
1
. b
1
. c
1
Q
0
: Ch tieu ky ke hoach, Q
0
= a
0
. b
0
. c
0

Q
1
Q
0
= Q: mc chenh lech gia ky thc hien va ky goc, ay cung la oi
tng can phan tch.
Q = a
1
. b
1
. c
1
a
0
. b
0
. c
0

Bc 3: Xac nh mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to.
Thc hien theo trnh t cac bc thay the. (Lu y: Nhan to a thay bc
trc phai c gi nguyen cho bc sau thay the)
Thay the bc 1 (cho nhan to a)
a
0
. b
0
. c
0
c thay the bang a
1
. b
0
. c
0
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to a la:
a = a
1
. b
0
. c
0
a
0
. b
0
. c
0

Thay the bc 2 (cho nhan to b)
a
1
. b
0
. c
0
c thay the bang a
1
. b
1
. c
0
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to b la:
b = a
1
. b
1
. c
0
a
1
. b
0
. c
0

Thay the bc 3 (Cho nhan to c)
a
1
. b
1
. c
0
c thay the bang a
1
. b
1
. c
1
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to c la:
c = a
1
. b
1
. c
1
a
1
. b
1
. c
0

Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to, ta co: a + b +c = Q
V du:
Tai mot doanh nghiep co tai lieu sau:


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CH TIEU KY KE HOACH KY THC HIEN
So lng san pham san xuat 1.000 sp 1.200 sp
So gi lao ong cho 1 SP 8 gi 7 gi
n gia mot gi cong 2.000 ong 2.500 ong
Bang 1.2. Tnh hnh san xuat san pham
Yeu cau:
Hay phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach chi ph nhan cong trc tiep.
Cong viec phan tch c tien hanh nh sau:
Xac nh cong thc:
Goi:
Q
0
, Q
1
la san lng san pham san xuat ky ke hoach va ky thc te;
H
0
, H
1
la so gi lao ong cho 1 san pham ky ke hoach va ky thc te;
P
0
, P
1
la n gia mot gi cong cua ky ke hoach va ky thc te;
C
0
, C
1
la chi ph nhan cong trc tiep ky ke hoach va thc te;
C la oi tng can phan tch;
Vay ta co:
C
0
= Q
0
.H
0
.P
0
= 1000 x 8 x 2000 = 16.000.000 ong.
C
1
= Q
1
.H
1
.P
1
= 1.200 x 7 x 2500 = 21.000.000 ong.
C = C
1
C
0
= 21.000.000 16.000.000 = 5.000.000 ong (oi tng
phan tch)
Tnh cac mc anh hng cua cac nhan to:
Thay the bc 1 (cho nhan to Q):
Q
1
.H
0
.P
0
= 1.200 x 8 x 2000 = 19.200.000 ong.
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to Q:
Q
1
.H
0
.P
0
Q
0
.H
0
.P
0
= 19.200.000 16.000.000 = 3.200.000 ong.
Thay the bc 2 (cho nhan to H):


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Q
1
.H
1
.P
0
= 1.200 x 7 x 2000 = 16.800.000 ong.
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to H:
Q
1
.H
1
.P
0
Q
1
.H
0
.P
0
= 16.800.000 19.200.000 = -2.400.000 ong.
Thay the bc 3 (cho nhan to P):
Q
1
. H
1
. P
1
= C
1
= 21.000.000 ong
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to P:
Q
1
. H
1
. P
1
Q
1
. H
1
. P
0
= 21.000.000 16.800.000 = 4.200.000 ong.
Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to:
3.200.000 + (-2.400.000) + 4.200.000 = 5.000.000 ong.
Bc 4: Tm nguyen nhan lam thay oi cac nhan to:
Neu do nguyen nhan chu quan t doanh nghiep th phai tm bien phap e
khac phuc nhng nhc iem, thieu xot e ky sau thc hien c tot hn.
Bc 5: a ra cac bien phap khac phuc nhng nhan to chu quan anh
hng khong tot en chat lung kinh doanh va ong thi cung co, xay dng
phng hng cho ky sau.
* u va nhc iem cua phng phap thay the lien hoan:
u iem:
La phng phap n gian, de tnh toan so vi cac phng phap xac nh
nhan to anh hng khac.
Phng phap thay the lien hoan co the xac nh c cac nhan to co quan
he vi ch tieu phan tch bang thng, tong, hieu, tch so va ca so %.
Nhc iem:
Khi xac nh nhan to nao o, phai gia nh cac nhan to khac khong oi,
trong thc te cac nhan to co the thay oi.




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Viec sap xep trnh t cac nhan to phai t nhan to san lng en chat lng,
trong thc te viec phan biet ro rang gia nhan to san lng va nhan to chat
lng la khong de dang.
1.2.3. Phng phap so chenh lech
Thc chat cua phng phap nay la trng hp ac biet cua phng phap
thay the lien hoan. Phng phap nay cung thc hien ay u cac bc nh vay,
tuy ch khac iem sau:
Khi xac nh nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch, thay v ta tien hanh
thay the so lieu ma se dung so chenh lech cua tng nhan to e tnh anh hng
cua tng nhan to.
V du: Lay so lieu v du tren
Anh hng cua nhan to san lng = (1200sp - 1000sp) x 8
gi
/
sp
x 2000

/
gi
=
3.200.000 ong
Anh hng cua gi cong tieu hao = 1200sp x (7
gi
/
sp
- 8
gi
/
sp
) x 2000

/
gi
= -
2.400.000 ong
Anh hng cua n gia gi cong = 1200sp x 7
gi
/
sp
x (2500

/
gi
-2000

/
gi
) =
4.200.000 ong
Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to:
3.200.000 + (-2.400.000) + 4.200.000 = 5.000.000 ong
Nh vay, phng phap so chenh lech ch co the thc hien c khi cac
nhan to co quan he bang tch so, va thng so en ch tieu phan tch ma thoi.
* Chu y: Neu co cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch trong ky goc
va thc hien:
Ky ke hoach = A
0
x B
0
x C
0
x D
0

Ky thc hien = A
1
x B
1
x C
1
x D
1

Ta co:


14

Anh hng cua nhan to (A) = (A
1
A
0
) x B
0
x C
0
x D
0

Anh hng cua nhan to (B) = A
1
x (B
1
B
0
) x C
0
x D
0

Anh hng cua nhan to (C) = A
1
x B
1
x (C
1
C
0
) x D
0

Anh hng cua nhan to (D) = A
1
x B
1
x C
1
x (D
1
D
0
)
1.2.4. Phng phap lien he can oi
Cung la phng phap dung e phan tch mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to
ma gia chung co san moi lien he can oi va chung la nhan to oc lap. Mot
lng thay oi trong moi nhan to se lam thay oi trong ch tieu phan tch ung
mot lng tng ng.
Nhng lien he can oi thng gap trong phan tch nh: Tai san va nguon
von; can oi hang ton kho; ang thc qua trnh kinh doanh; nhu cau von va s
dung von v.v..
V du:
Dung phng phap lien he can oi, phan tch cac nhan to noi tai anh hng
en gia tr hang ton kho cuoi ky qua so lieu sau:
n v tnh: ngan ong
Ch tieu Ton au ky Nhap trong
ky
Xuat trong
ky
Ton cuoi ky
Thc hien 90.000 1.100.000 1.110.000 80.000
Ke hoach 100.000 1.000.000 1.050.000 50.000
Bang 1.3. Tnh hnh nhap xuat ton
Ta co lien he can oi:
Ton au ky + Nhap trong ky = Xuat trong ky + Ton cuoi ky
Suy ra:
Ton cuoi ky = Ton au ky + Nhap trong ky Xuat trong ky
(Q) (a) (b) (c)


15

Goi: Q la ch tieu can phan tch;
a, b, c la cac nhan to co lien he oc lap, anh hng en ch tieu can phan
tch.
Ta co oi tng phan tch (Q):
Ton kho cuoi ky Ton kho cuoi ky = 80.000 50.000 = 30.000 ng
Q = Q
1
Q
0
= a + b - c. Nh vay:
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to a (ton au ky):
a = a
1
a
0
= 90.000 100.000 = -10.000 ng
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to b (Nhap trong ky):
b = b
1
b
0
= 1.100.000 1.000.000 = 100.000 ng
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to c (Xuat trong ky):
c = c
1
c
0
= 1.110.000 1.050.000 = 60.000 ng
Tong hp cac nhan to anh hng:
Q = Q
1
Q
0
= a + b - c = -10.000 + 100.000 + 60.000 = 30.000 ng
Phng phap can oi c s dung nhieu trong cong tac lap ke hoach san
xuat kinh doanh va ngay ca cong tac hach toan. Ta xet v du cu the: T ket qua
can oi gia tai san va nguon von trong bang can oi ke toan se giup nha quan
ly c cau tai tnh hien tai va viec s dung nguon tai chnh o mang lai hieu qua
nh the nao, e t o co nhng d bao cho thi gian ti.









16

Tai san
So au
nam
So
cuoi
ky
Chenh
lech
Nguon von
So
au
nam
So
cuoi
ky
Chenh
lech
A. Tai san ngan han 400 440 + 40 A. N phai tra 300 340 + 40
I. Tien 50 70 + 20 I. N ngan han 100 80 - 20
II. Phai thu 100 120 + 20 II. N dai han 200 260 + 60
III. Ton kho 250 250 - B. Von chu s hu 700 770 + 70
B. Tai san dai han 600 670 + 70 I. Von chu s hu 700 770 + 70
I. Tai san co nh 500 610 + 110 1. Von au t CSH 550 550 -
II. au t dai han 100 60 - 40 2.LN cha phan phoi 150 220 + 70
Cong tai san 1.000 1.110 + 110 Cong nguon von 1.000 1.110 + 110
Bang 1.4. Bang phan tch cac khoan muc bang can oi ke toan
Nhn chung tong tai san cung nh nguon von cuoi ky tang 110 trieu so vi
au nam, nh vay ve quy mo hoat ong doanh nghiep a tang len ang ke.
Ve mat tai san: Chu yeu tang do tai san co nh tang 110 trieu, sau o la
cac khoan phai thu tang 20 trieu, con au t dai han giam 40 trieu.
Ve mat nguon von: Chu yeu tang do li nhuan sau thue cha phan phoi
tang 70 trieu va n dai han tang 60 trieu, con n ngan han giam 20 trieu.
S dung phng phap can oi e phan tch, vi s can oi gia tai san va
nguon von ta thay, doanh nghiep a giam cac khoan au t dai han, tang n vay
dai han e au t cho tai san co nh, ket qua hoat ong trong nam doanh nghiep
a tang li nhuan sau thue cha phan phoi la 70 trieu ong.
1.2.5. Phng phap hoi quy
Hoi quy noi theo cach n gian, la i ngc lai ve qua kh (regression)
e nghien cu nhng d lieu (data) a dien ra theo thi gian (d lieu chuoi thi
gian time series) hoac dien ra tai cung mot thi iem (d lieu thi iem hoac
d lieu cheo cross section) nham tm en mot quy luat ve moi quan he gia


17

chung. Moi quan he o c bieu dien thanh mot phng trnh (hay mo hnh) goi
la: phng trnh hoi quy ma da vao o, co the giai thch bang cac ket qua lng
hoa ve ban chat, ho tr cung co cac ly thuyet va d bao tng lai.
Theo thuat ng toan, phan tch hoi quy la s nghien cu mc o anh hng
cua mot hay nhieu bien so (bien giai thch hay bien oc lap independent
variable), en mot bien so (bien ket qua hay bien phu thuoc dependent
variable), nham d bao bien ket qua da vao cac gia tr c biet trc cua cac
bien giai thch.
Trong phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh cung nh trong nhieu lnh vc khac,
hoi quy la cong cu phan tch ay sc manh khong the thay the, la phng phap
thong ke toan dung e c lng, d bao nhng s kien xay ra trong tng lai
da vao quy luat qua kh.
a. Phng phap hoi quy n
Con goi la hoi quy n bien, dung xet moi quan he tuyen tnh gia 1 bien
ket qua va 1 bien giai thch hay la bien nguyen nhan (neu gia chung co moi
quan he nhan qua). Trong phng trnh hoi quy tuyen tnh, mot bien goi la: bien
phu thuoc; mot bien kia la tac nhan gay ra s bien oi, goi la bien oc lap.
Phng trnh hoi quy n bien (ng thang) co dang tong quat:
Y = a + bX (1.1)
Trong o:
Y: bien so phu thuoc (dependent variable);
X: bien so oc lap (independent variable);
a: tung o goc hay nut chan (intercept);
b: o doc hay he so goc (slope).
Y trong phng trnh tren c hieu la Y c lng, ngi ta thng viet
di hnh thc co non
^
Y


18

V du:
Phng trnh tong chi ph cua doanh nghiep co dang:
Y = a + bX
Trong o:
Y: Tong chi ph phat sinh trong ky;
X: Khoi lng san pham tieu thu;
a: Tong chi ph bat bien;
b: chi ph kha bien n v san pham;
bX: Tong chi ph kha bien.









o th 1.1. ng x cua cac loai chi ph
Nhan xet:
Vi phng trnh tren, tong chi ph Y chu anh hng trc tiep cua khoi
lng hoat ong X theo quan he ty le thuan. Khi X tang dan en Y tang; khi X
giam dan en Y giam;
Khi X = 0 th Y = a: Cac chi ph nh tien thue nha, chi ph khau hao, tien
lng thi gian va cac khoan chi ph hanh chnh khac la nhng chi ph bat bien,
khong chu anh hng t thay oi cua khoi lng hoat ong.
a
0
bX
Y = a + bX
X
Y


19

ng bieu dien a song song vi truc hoanh. Tr so a la he so co nh, the
hien chi ph toi thieu trong ky cua doanh nghiep (nut chan tren o th).
Tr so b quyet nh o doc (tc o nghieng cua ng bieu dien chi ph tren
o th);
ng tong chi ph Y = a + bX va ng chi ph kha bien bX song song vi
nhau v gia chung co cung chung mot o doc b (slope). Xuat phat iem cua
ng tong chi ph bat au t nut chan a (intercept = a) tren truc tung; trong khi
o, ng chi ph kha bien lai bat au t goc truc toa o v co nut chan bang 0
(intercept = 0). Hay noi mot cach khac, theo noi dung kinh te, khi khoi lng
hoat ong bang 0 (X=0) th chi ph kha bien cung se bang 0 (bX=0).
V du chi tiet:
Co tnh hnh ve chi ph hoat ong (tai khoan 641 va tai khoan 642: chi ph
ban hang va chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep) va doanh thu (tai khoan 511) tai mot
doanh nghiep c quan sat qua cac d lieu cua 6 ky kinh doanh nh sau: (n v
tnh: trieu ong).
Ky kinh doanh Doanh thu ban hang Chi ph hoat ong
1 1.510 323
2 1.820 365
3 2.104 412
4 2.087 410
5 1.750 354
6 2.021 403
Bang 1.5. Tnh hnh thc hien chi ph cua 6 ky kinh doanh
Yeu cau: Phan tch c cau chi ph hoat ong (bat bien, kha bien) cua doanh
nghiep.
Hng dan:


20

Yeu cau cua van e la thiet lap phng trnh chi ph hoat ong cua doanh
nghiep, tc i tm gia tr cac thong so a, b vi muc ch phat hien quy luat bien
oi cua chi ph nay trc s thay oi cua doanh thu, nham en viec d bao chi
ph cho cac quy mo hoat ong khac nhau hoac cho cac ky kinh doanh tiep theo.
Phng trnh chi ph hoat ong co dang:
Y = a + bX
Trong o:
a: Tong chi ph bat bien
b: chi ph kha bien 1 n v doanh thu
X: Doanh thu ban hang
Y: Tong chi ph hoat ong
Co nhieu phng phap thong ke tnh a, b nh:
Phng phap cc tr:
Con goi la phng phap can tren can di (High low method). Cu the
e tm tr so a, b cua phng trnh theo v du tren bang cach s dung cong thc
va cach tnh toan nh sau:
Hie u so cua chi ph cao nha t va thap nha t
b =
Hieu so cua doanh thu cao nhat va tha p nhat
(1.2)
412 - 323
b = 0,15
2.104 - 1.510
=
Trong o:
Chi ph cc ai: 412
Chi ph cc tieu: 323
Doanh thu cc ai: 2.104
Doanh thu cc tieu: 1.510
T phng trnh: Y = a +bX, suy ra: a = Y bX;
Tai iem at doanh thu cao nhat (high), ta co:


21

a = 412 0,15 x 2.104 = 96,4
Tai iem at doanh thu thap nhat (low), ta co:
a = 323 0,15 x 1.510 = 96,4
Phng trnh chi ph kinh doanh a c thiet lap:
Y = 96,4 + 0,15X
Lu y:
Phng phap cc tr rat n gian, de tnh toan nhng thieu chnh xac
trong nhng trng hp d lieu bien ong bat thng.
Trng hp tap d lieu co so quan sat ln, viec tm thay nhng gia
tr cc tr gap kho khan va de nham lan, Microsoft Excel se cung cap
mot cach nhanh chong va chnh xac cac gia tr thong ke: Max, min,
range (=Max-Min) nh sau:
Lenh s dung trong Microsoft Excel: Tools / Data Analysis/ Descriptive
Statistics/ OK / Summary Statistics / OK.
Column1 (doanh thu) Column2 (chi ph) Giai thch
Mean 1.882,00 Mean 377,83 Gia tr trung bnh
Standard Error 94,92 Standard Error 14,80 Sai so chuan
Median 1.920,50 Median 384,00 Trung v
Mode #N/A Mode #N/A Yeu v
Standard Deviation 232,50 Standard Deviation 36,26 o lech chuan
Sample Variance 54.056,40 Sample Variance 1.314,97 Phng sai (mau)
Kurtosis -0,49 Kurtosis -1,30 o chop
Skewness -0,76 Skewness -0,58 o nghieng
Range 594,00 Range 89,00 Khoang (mien)
Minimum 1.510,00 Minimum 323,00 Gia tr toi thieu
Maximum 2.104,00 Maximum 412,00 Gia tr toi a
Sum 11.292,00 Sum 2.267,00 Tong cong gia tr
Count 6,00 Count 6,00 So lan quan sat
Bang 1.6. Ket qua cac ai lng ac trng thong ke trong Microsoft Excel


22

Neu trong Tools khong hien hanh san Data Analysis, ta dung lenh: Tools /
Add Ins / Analysis ToolPak / OK.
Giai thch cac thong so tnh c cu the tai cot chi ph:
Mean (gia tr trung bnh): la bnh quan so hoc (Average) cua tat ca cac gia
tr quan sat. c tnh bang cach lay tong gia tr cac quan sat (Sum) chia cho so
quan sat (Count).
1
2.267
377,83
6
n
i
i
X
X
n
=
= = =

Standard Error (sai so chuan): dung e o o tin cay cua gia tr trung bnh
mau. c tnh bang cach lay o lech chuan (Standard Deviation) chia cho can
bac 2 cua so quan sat.
36, 26
14,80
6
X S
n

= = =

Ta co the noi: co kha nang 95% la gia tr trung bnh nam trong khoang cong
tr (+/-) 2 lan sai so chuan so vi gia tr trung bnh. Theo v du tren, o la
khoang:
( ) ( ) [ ]
377,83 2 14,8 ;377,83 2 14,8 tc la khoang: 348,23 ; 407,43 + (


Da vao cong thc tren ta cung thay rang: vi o lech chuan khong oi,
n cang ln th S cang nho. Tc khoang dao ong se hep hn va o chnh xac se
cao hn. Ngi ta cung da vao cong thc nay e tnh so quan sat can thiet n.
Median (trung v): la gia tr nam v tr trung tam (khac vi gia tr trung
bnh Mean). c tnh bang cach:
Neu so quan sat n la so le: sap xep cac gia tr quan sat t nho en
ln, gia tr ng v tr chnh gia la so trung v.


23

Neu so quan sat n la so chan: sap xep cac gia tr quan sat t nho en
ln, trung bnh cong cua 2 gia tr ng v tr chnh gia la so trung
v.
Theo v du tren, ta sap xep cac quan sat co gia tr t nho en ln: 323, 354,
365, 403, 410, 412.
365 403
384
2
Median
+
= =

Mode (yeu v): la gia tr xuat hien nhieu lan nhat. Theo v du tren, ta khong
co yeu v nao ca (#N/A)
Standard Deviation (o lech chuan): c xem nh la o lech trung bnh,
ai dien cho cac o lech (hieu so) gia cac gia tr quan sat thc va gia tr trung
bnh (Mean). o lech chuan la ai lng dung e o mc o phan tan (xa hay
gan) cua cac gia tr quan sat xung quanh gia tr trung bnh. c tnh bang cach
lay can bac 2 cua phng sai
2
(trung bnh cua bnh phng cac o lech: o
lech am negative deviation va o lech dng positive deviation).
2
1.314, 97 36,26 = = =
( : oc la sigma )
Sample Variance (phng sai mau): la trung bnh cua bnh phng cac o
lech. Giong nh o lech chuan, no cung dung e xem mc o phan tan cac gia
tr quan sat thc xung quanh gia tr trung bnh. c tnh bang cach lay tong cac
bnh phng cac o lech (tong cac hieu so gia gia tr quan sat thc va gia tr
trung bnh) chia cho so quan sat tr 1 (n 1). Theo v du tren ta co:
2
2
1
1.314, 97
( )
1
n
i
i
X X
n

=
= =

(
2
: oc la sigma bnh phng)


24

Kurtosis (o chop): la he so ac trng thong ke dung e o mc o ong
nhat cua cac gia tr quan sat.
ng cong rat chop (very peaked): nhon ng, kurtosis > 3. Neu
ng bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta
co the noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu rat gan vi nhau (the same
revenue) du co mot so t mang gia tr rat nho hoac rat ln.







ng cong rat bet (very flat): phang nam, kurtosis < 3. Neu ng
bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the
noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu c trai eu t nho en ln
trong mot khoang rong hn.




Theo v du tren, o chop bang: - 1,30.

Skewness (o nghieng): la he so dung e o o nghieng khi phan phoi
xac suat khong can xng theo hnh chuong eu.


25

Nghieng ve trai ta con goi la nghieng am (Skewned to the left),
skewness < -1: nghieng nhieu, > 0,5: nghieng t. Neu ng bieu
dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the noi
rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu gan vi doanh thu ln nhat du co mot
so t mang gia tr nho hn hoac rat nho ( ben trai).





Nghieng ve phai ta con goi la nghieng dng (Skewned to the
right), skewness > 1: nghieng nhieu, < 0,5: nghieng t. Neu ng
bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the
noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu gan vi doanh thu nho nhat du co
mot so t mang gia tr ln hn hoac rat ln ( ben phai).





Theo v du tren, o nghieng bang: -0,58.
Range (khoang) also range width (hay be rong cua khoang): la o dai cua
khoang quan sat (khoang bien thien), c tnh bang lay gia tr quan sat cc ai
Max tr i gia tr quan sat cc tieu Min.
Range = Max Min = 412 323 = 89
Minimum (gia tr quan sat cc tieu): gia tr nho nhat trong cac quan sat.


26

Min = 323
Maximum (gia tr quan sat cc ai): gia tr ln nhat trong cac quan sat.
Max = 412
Sum (tong cong gia tr cua cac quan sat): la tong cong tat ca cac gia tr cua
tat ca cac quan sat trong tap d lieu.
Theo v du tren, ta co:
1
2.267
n
i
i
Sum X
=
= =

Count (so quan sat): la so em cua so lan quan sat (n). Theo tap d lieu
v du tren, ta co:
n = 6
Phng phap thong ke hoi quy:
Con goi la thong ke hoi quy n gian (simple regression statistical) dung
phng phap thong ke toan e tnh cac he so a, b cua phng trnh hoi quy da
tren toan bo quan sat cua tap d lieu. ay la phng phap ang tin cay nhat va
v vay oi hoi cong phu hn.
Van dung so lieu v du tren, lap bang tnh cac tr so c s roi can c vao
cong thc e tnh cac thong so cua phng trnh.
Ta co cong thc trong thong ke toan:
( )( )
1
2
1
( )
i i
n
i
n
i
i
b
X X Y Y
X X
=
=
=

(1.3)
a Y bX = (1.4)
Chng minh cong thc:


27

Cong thc tren c chng minh t phng phap hoi quy cac bnh phng
toi thieu cua cac hieu so (o lech : Deviation) gia cac gia tr quan sat va gia tr
c lng cua bien so phu thuoc

( )
i Y a bX = + .
Vi phng phap tong cac bnh phng toi thieu, goi
2
i e la bnh phng cac
o lech, ta co:

2 2 2
1 1 1
( ) ( ) i i i i i
n n n
i i i
e Y Y Y a bX
= = =
= =

(1.5)
2
1
i
n
i
Min e
=

(1.6)
Giai he phng trnh vi phan e tm gia tr cac thong so.
Lay ao ham rieng phan theo a va cho bang 0:
2
1
( ) 0 i i
n
i
Y a bX
a
=

(1.7)
Lay ao ham rieng phan theo b va cho bang 0:
2
1
( ) 0 i i
n
i
Y a bX
b
=

(1.8)
Lay ao ham roi cung chia cho -2 (hay nhan cho -1/2), ta co he phng
trnh chuan, vi n quan sat:
2
XY a X b X = +

(1.9)
Y na b X = +

(1.10)
Dung phng phap kh, giai he phng trnh co 2 an so, ta lan lc co c
gia tr cac thong so a, b nh cac cong thc (1.3) va (1.4) nen tren.
De dang thay c y ngha cac o lech toi thieu qua o th sau:




28











o th 1.2. o lech cua cac gia tr quan sat so vi gia tr c lng
Giai thch o th:
ng hoi quy

Y a bX = + la ng c lng tot nhat, cha cac gia tr c

lng cua Y ma o lech trung bnh gia chung va gia tr quan sat thc la nho
nhat (toi thieu).
Cac o lech nam pha tren ng c lng nhn t goc cua truc toa o, goi
la o lech dng (Positive deviation); cac o lech nam pha di ng c
lng nhn t goc cua truc toa o, goi la o lech am (Negative deviation).
Tai sao la bnh phng toi thieu?
Muc ch cuoi cung cua phng phap hoi quy la dung e giai thch hoac d
bao mot oi tng can nghien cu. Cu the la i tm gia tr cac thong so a, b e
xay dng phng trnh hoi quy tuyen tnh (ng thang) co dang tong quat:

Y a bX = + .
Moi gia tr c lng (c lng iem) la gia tr c lng trung bnh iem
cua bien ket qua Y
i
. Kha nang ch co the xay ra cac gia tr trong mot khoang
c lng vi mot o tin cay nhat nh ma thoi. V xac suat e gia tr thc Y
i

X
i
0

Y
Y
i

Y
o lech (deviation):

i Y Y

X
ng hoi quy bnh
quan toi thieu:

Y a bX = +


29

bang vi gia tr c lng iem

i Y la bang 0, hay noi cach khac la rat kho co

kha nang xay ra.
Y ngha cua phng phap bnh phng toi thieu la lam sao cho o lech
trung bnh gia

Y va Y
i
la nho nhat:

( )
0 i Y Y
Trong o, Y
i
la cac gia tr quan sat thc va

Y a bX = + la cac gia tr c
lng (gia tr trung bnh) cua Y
i
.
Khi ay, gia tr c lng gan vi gia tr quan sat thc va phng trnh hoi
quy dung e d bao se tr nen kha thi, thch hp nhat va chnh xac nhat trong
ieu kien co the.
n X
i
Y
i

2
i X
2
i Y X
i
Y
i
i X X i Y Y
( )
( )
. i
i
X X
Y Y

( )
2
i X X
( )
2
i Y Y
1 1.510 323 2.280.100 104.329 487.730 -372 -55 20.398 138.384 3.007
2 1.820 365 3.312.400 133.225 664.300 -62 -13 796 3.844 165
3 2.104 412 4.426.816 169.744 866.848 222 34 7.585 49.284 1.167
4 2.087 410 4.355.569 168.100 855.670 205 32 6.594 42.025 1.035
5 1.750 354 3.062.500 125.316 619.500 -132 -24 3.146 17.424 568
6 2.021 403 4.084.441 162.409 814.463 139 25 3.498 19.321 633

11.292 2.267 21.521.826 863.123 4.308.511 0 0 42.017 270.282 6.575
Bang 1.7. Cac tr so c s thong ke
Tnh gia tr trung bnh (mean) cua cac bien X, Y vi 6 quan sat:
11.292
1.882
6
2.267
377,83 378
6
X
Y
= =
= =

Trc het, xet mc o tng quan (correlation) gia bien so phu thuoc va
bien so oc lap bang cong thc:



30

( )( )
( ) ( )
1
2 2
1 1
i i
i i
n
i
n n
i i
R
X X Y Y
X X Y Y
=
= =
=

(1.11)
R = +1: tng quan hoan toan va ong bien;
R = -1: tng quan hoan toan va nghch bien;
R cang gan 1, tng quan cang manh
( )
0,8 1 R < < ;
R t 0,4 en 0,8: tng quan trung bnh;
R nho hn 0,4: tng quan yeu.
Theo so lieu tren, o tng quan o c:
( )( )
42.017
0, 993
270.282 6.575
R = =

Y ngha cua o tng quan noi len cng o cua moi quan he tuyen tnh
cua hai bien X va Y.
Tr lai, thay cac gia tr a tnh bang 1.7 vao cong thc (1.3) va (1.4)
tren, ta co:
( )( )
1
2
1
42.017
0,155
270.282
( )
i i
n
i
n
i
i
b
X X Y Y
X X
=
=
= = =

( ) 377,83 0,155 1882 86,12 a Y bX = = =
Vay phng trnh hoi quy co dang Y = a + bX se la:
Y = 86,12 + 0,155X
Tnh tren phan mem Microsoft Excel:
Co 2 cach thc hien tren Excel:
Cach 1: dung ham Fx: Paste function


31

Tm tr so b (slope), s dung lenh: Insert / Fx / Statistical (select a category:
chon loai ham) / slope (select a function: la chon ten ham) / OK / quet anh
dau khoi cot d lieu Y va cot d lieu X / OK.
Tm tr so a (intercept), s dung lenh giong nh tm tr so a, ch thay oi
bang ten hang Slope bang ten ham Intercept (function name)
Tm tr so R (correlation), dung lenh: Insert / Fx / Statistical (select a
category: la chon loai ham) / Correl (select a function: la chon ten ham) / OK /
quet anh dau khoi cot d lieu X va cot d lieu Y / OK.
Cach 2: Dung Regression (thng dung e chay hoi quy a bien)
Khi thao tac tren Microsoft Excel, ta s dung lenh:
Tools / Data Analysis / Regression / OK.
Trong phan Input (nhap au vao):
Nhap d lieu Y vao o: Input Y Range;
Nhap d lieu X vao o: Input X Range;
Trong phan Output options (v tr au ra) co 2 la chon:
Chon sheet mi: dung New worksheet ply;
Chon sheet hien hanh: dung Output Range.
Chng trnh Microsoft Excel se cho bang ket qua sau:










32

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,9967
R Square 0,9935
Adjusted R Square 0,9918
Standard Error 3,2799
Observations 6

ANOVA
Df SS MS F Significance
F

Regression 1 6.531,80 6.531,80 607,16 0,00
Residual 4 43,03 10,76
Total 5 6.574,83

Coefficients Standard
Error
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper
95%
Intercept 85,265 11,949 7,136 0,00 52,09 118,44
X Variable 1 0,155 0,006 24,641 0,00 0,14 0,17
Bang 1.8. Ket qua hoi quy n bien, cho bi Microsoft Excel.
Giai thch bang 1.8:
Multiple R = 0,9967 la o tng quan gia Y va X (tng quan
manh);
R square (R
2
) = 0,9935: la he so xac nh (determination), bieu hien
kha nang giai thch cua cac bien oc lap X en bien phu thuoc Y
(kha nang giai thch cao);
oc tr so a, b cot Coefficients cac he so: Intercept tung o goc
(a=85,265); X Varible 1 o doc vi bien oc lap X (b = 0,155)


33

Tr so thong ke t-stat: 7,136 va 24,641 > 1,96, the hien s co y
ngha ve mat thong ke mc y ngha 5% trong khoang: can tren
Upper, can di Lower. Can tren va can di cua Intercept la
(118,44 ; 52,09) va cua Slope la (0,17 ; 0,14).
Mot so ch tieu dung e kiem nh, nh ANOVA trong bang ket qua
hoi quy khong e cap het trong pham vi mon hoc nay.
b. Phng phap hoi quy boi:
Con goi la phng phap hoi quy a bien, dung phan tch moi quan he gia
nhieu bien so oc lap (tc bien giai thch hay bien nguyen nhan) anh hng en
1 bien phu thuoc (tc bien phan tch hay bien ket qua).
Trong thc te, co rat nhieu bai toan kinh te ca lnh vc kinh doanh va
kinh te hoc, phai can en phng phap hoi quy a bien. Chang han nh phan
tch nhng nhan to anh hng en thu nhap quoc dan, s bien ong cua ty gia
ngoai hoi; xet doanh thu trong trng hp co nhieu mat hang; phan tch tong chi
ph vi nhieu nhan to tac ong; phan tch gia thanh chi tiet; nhng nguyen nhan
anh hng en khoi lng tieu thu
Mot ch tieu kinh te chu s tac ong cung luc cua rat nhieu nhan to thuan
chieu hoac trai chieu nhau. Chang han nh doanh thu le thuoc va gia ca, thu
nhap bnh quan xa hoi, lai suat tien gi, mua vu, thi tiet, quang cao tiep th
Mat khac, gia nhng nhan to lai cung co s tng quan tuyen tnh noi tai vi
nhau. Phan tch hoi quy giup ta va kiem nh lai gia thiet ve nhng nhan to tac
ong va mc o anh hng, va nh lng c cac quan he kinh te gia
chung. T o, lam nen tang cho phan tch d bao va co nhng quyet sach phu
hp, hieu qua, thuc ay tang trng.
Phng trnh hoi quy a bien di dang tuyen tnh:
Y = b
0
+ b
1
X
1
+ b
2
X
2
+ + b
i
X
i
+ b
n
X
n
+ e (1.12)


34

Trong o: Y: bien so phu thuoc (ket qua phan tch);
b
0
: tung o goc;
b
1
: cac o doc cua phng trnh theo cac bien X
i
;
X
i
: cac bien so (cac nhan to anh hng);
e: cac sai so
Lu y: Y trong phng trnh tren c bieu hien la Y c lng, ngi ta
thng viet di hnh thc co non

( )
Y .
Muc tieu cua phng phap hoi quy a bien la da vao d lieu lch s cac
bien so Y
i
, X
i
, dung thuat toan e i tm cac thong so b
0
va b
i
xay dng phng
trnh hoi quy e d bao cho c lng trung bnh cua bien Y
i
.
1.3. TO CHC THC HIEN PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH
T nghien cu noi dung va phng phap phan tch co the thay he thong
phan tch bao gom cac yeu to co lien he chat che vi nhau: chi tiet, so sanh, lien
he, loai tr (thay the lien hoan), tng quan hoi qui nhiem vu cua To chc phan
tch kinh doanh la tao moi lien he gia cac yeu to nay trong tng noi dung phan
tch cu the nh san xuat, cung ng va tieu thu, chi ph, tai chnh nham anh gia
ung an tnh hnh kinh doanh cua n v va vach ra nhng tiem nang con co the
khai thac trong ky kinh doanh ti. Nh vay, to chc phan tch chnh la van dung
tong hp cac phng phap phan tch e anh gia ung ket qua, ch ro nhng sai
lam va tm bien phap sa cha thieu sot trong kinh doanh. ay la yeu cau rat c
ban, co y ngha rat thc tien oi vi ngi quan ly kinh doanh.
Ro rang, trong kinh doanh moi tac phong hay cach nghien cu chung
chung, ai khai chac chan se that bai. V vay sau khi thau hieu noi dung, phng
phap phan tch can biet la chon noi dung, su tam va kiem tra tai lieu theo noi
dung an nh, xay dng he thong ch tieu va la chon he thong phng phap
thch ng.


35

Cung vi viec xac nh quy trnh, muc tieu phan tch can biet to chc lc
lng thc hien quy trnh a neu, nh vay to chc phan tch co the quy ve nhng
loai cong viec chu yeu nh:
La chon cach ket hp cac loai hnh phan tch phu hp vi muc tieu
va noi dung phan tch.
To chc lc lng can bo va phng tien thc hien muc tieu phan
tch a neu.
Xay dng quy trnh to chc phan tch phu hp vi muc tieu va lc
lng cung cac ieu kien hien co.
Ngoai ra, cung nh moi mat to chc khac, to chc phan tch can c
hoan thien thng xuyen nham thoa man ngay cang ay u hn nhng nhu cau
thong tin cho quan ly kinh doanh, ay la phan khai quat noi dung cac khau cong
viec chu yeu.
1.3.1. Phan loai cac loai hnh phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh.
a. Can c vao thi ky tien hanh phan tch.
Phan tch thng xuyen:
La can c vao tai lieu hach toan va cac tai lieu khac hang ngay, hang tuan,
nien cu phat hien nhng mat chenh lech so vi ke hoach ve mc o, tien o e
co bien phap khac phuc.
Phan tch nh ky:
c tien hanh vao cac thi gian a nh, nham anh gia tat ca hoac tng
mat hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep trong suot thi gian a nh.
b. Can c vao noi dung phan tch.
Phan tch toan bo:
Viec phan tch se nghien cu tat ca cac mat hoat ong cua doanh nghiep va
cac n v trong doanh nghiep.


36

Phan tch tng phan:
La viec nghien cu tng mat hoat ong cua doanh nghiep, tng loai chi ph,
tng van e ve ky thuat va to chc.
c. Can c vao thi iem hoat ong kinh doanh:
Phan tch trc khi HKD:
Nham d bao cac muc tieu co the at c trong tng lai, cung cap cac
thong tin phuc vu cho viec xay dng ke hoach.
Phan tch trong khi tien hanh san xuat kinh doanh:
La thc hien phan tch cung vi qua trnh hoat ong kinh doanh. Hnh thc
nay thch hp cho chc nang kiem soat thng xuyen nham ieu chnh nhng sai
lech gia ket qua thc hien vi muc tieu a e ra.
Phan tch khi ket thuc hoat ong kinh doanh:Nham anh gia ket qua
thc hien so vi ke hoach a e ra. Xac nh ro nhng nguyen nhan
anh hng en ket qua o.
1.3.2. To chc phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh trong doanh nghiep.
a. To chc lc lng phan tch kinh doanh.
Trong bo may quan ly doanh nghiep thng khong co nhng bo phan
chc nang khong lam tat ca cac cong viec ve phan tch kinh doanh. Trong ieu
kien o, mot mat can ket hp chc nang tng bo phan e phan cong ro trach
nhiem tng phong, ban, bo phan. ong thi, can co nhng bo phan trung tam va
thanh lap hoi ong phan tch lam tham mu, cho giam oc ve phan tch, kinh
doanh. Cu the, lc lng phan tch co the c to chc nh sau:
Bo phan thong tin kinh te nghiep vu hang ngay gom can bo thong ke
hoac can bo kinh doanh kiem nhiem co nhiem vu thong tin nhanh cac ch tieu
tien o va chat lng cong viec hang ngay tai cac n v kinh doanh (phan
xng, oi, ca hang, khach san).


37

Cac bo phan chc nang am nhiem cac cong viec x ly cac tai lieu thu
thap c phu hp vi lnh vc cong tac cua mnh ke ca phan tch trc, phan
tch hien hanh va phan tch sau thuoc phan tch chuyen e, ke ca phan tch ben
trong va ben ngoai. V du: Bo phan ke toan tai vu co nhiem vu phan tch tat ca
cac van e ve von: t ke hoach tai chnh, d toan chi ph en tien o huy ong,
s dung cac loai von va nh ky anh gia tnh hnh tai chnh cua doanh nghiep;
bo phan nhan s co nhiem vu phan tch toan bo cac van e tng ng ve lao
ong, viec lam; bo phan vat t, thiet b co nhiem vu phan tch toan bo cac van
e tng t ve vat t cua doanh nghiep v.v
Hoi ong phan tch cua doanh nghiep co nhiem vu giup giam oc toan
bo cong tac to chc phan tch kinh doanh t viec xay dng noi quy, quy trnh
phan tch en hng dan thc hien cac quy trnh va to chc hoi ngh phan tch.
b. Xay dng quy trnh to chc cong tac phan tch kinh doanh
at ke hoach phan tch la xac nh trc ve noi dung, pham vi thi
gian va cach to chc phan tch.
Noi dung phan tch can xac nh ro cac van e c phan tch: co the toan
bo hoat ong kinh doanh hoac ch mot van e cu the. ay la c s xay dng e
cng cu the e tien hanh phan tch.
Pham vi phan tch co the la toan n v hoac mot vai n v c chon lam
iem e phan tch. Tuy yeu cau va thc tien quan ly ma xac nh noi dung va
pham vi phan tch thch hp.
Thi gian an nh trong ke hoach phan tch bao gom ca thi gian chuan b
va thi gian tien hanh cong tac phan tch.
Trong ke hoach phan tch, can phan cong trach nhiem cac bo phan trc tiep
va phuc vu cong tac phan tch, cung cac hnh thc hoi ngh phan tch nham thu
thap nhieu y kien, anh gia ung thc trang va ay u tiem nang cho phan au
at ket qua cao trong kinh doanh.


38

Su tam va kiem tra tai lieu.
Tai lieu lam can c phan tch thng bao gom:
Cac van kien cua cac cap bo ang co lien quan en hoat ong kinh
doanh cua doanh nghiep.
Cac ngh quyet, ch th cua chnh quyen cac cap va cac c quan quan
ly, cap tren co lien quan en hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh
nghiep.
Cac tai lieu ke hoach, d toan, nh mc.
Cac tai lieu hach toan.
Cac bien ban hoi ngh. Cac bien ban x kien co lien quan.
Y kien cua tap the lao ong trong n v.
Kiem tra tai lieu can tien hanh tren nhieu mat:
Tnh hp phap cua tai lieu (trnh t lap, ban hanh ngi lap, cap co
tham quyen ky duyet v.v)
Noi dung va phng phap tnh cac ch tieu.
Tnh chnh xac cua viec tnh va ghi cac con so.
Cach anh gia oi vi cac ch tieu gia tr.
Pham vi kiem tra khong ch gii han cac tai lieu trc tiep lam can c
phan tch ma ca cac tai lieu khac co lien quan ac biet la cac tai lieu goc.
Xay dng he thong ch tieu va phng phap phan tch.
Tuy noi dung phan tch ma nguon tai lieu su tam c (b) va cac loai hnh
phan tch (cong tac phan loai) can xac nh he thong ch tieu phan tch va
phng phap phan tch phu hp.
Tuy phng tien phan tch va trnh o s dung tai lieu phan tch, he thong
ch tieu cung nh tng phan he c the hien khac nhau, co the bang s o khoi
thng dung trong chng trnh cho may vi tnh hay bang phan tch hoac bieu o.


39

Viet bao cao va to chc hoi ngh phan tch.
Bao cao phan tch la bang tong hp nhng anh gia c ban cung nhng tai
lieu chon loc e minh hoa rut ra t qua trnh phan tch. anh gia cung minh hoa
cung neu ro ca thc trang va tiem nang can khai thac. T o, neu ro c
phng hng va bien phap phan au trong ky ti.
Bao cao phan tch can c trnh bay trong hoi ngh phan tch e thu thap y
kien ong gop va thao luan cach thc hien cac phng hng bien phap a neu
trong bao cao phan tch.
















40

CHUONG z
PHAN TCH CHI PH VA GIA THANH

2.1. PHAN LOAI CHI PH
Phan loai chi ph (classifying costs) rat can thiet e tien hanh phan tch hoat
ong kinh doanh. Chi ph phat sinh mot cac khach quan trong qua trnh kinh
doanh nhng phan loai chung lai la y muon chu quan cua con ngi nham phuc
vu cac nhu cau khac nhau cua ngi phan tch.
2.1.1. Phan loai chung
Con goi la phan loai theo noi dung chi ph hay phan loai theo he thong ke
toan hien hanh.
a. Chi ph san xuat: (nhom tai tai khoan 62):
Chi ph san xuat co the khai quat qua s o sau:










S o 2.1. C cau chi ph san xuat
Chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep (TK 621):
Chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep
(Direct material)
Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep
(Direct labour)
Chi ph san xuat chung
(Manufacturing overhead)
Chi ph ban au
(Prime cost)
Chi ph chuyen oi
(Conversion cost)


41

Chi ph nguyen vat lieu chu yeu e che tao san pham, cau thanh san pham.
ac iem nguyen vat lieu trc tiep la chuyen het gia tr mot lan vao san pham
khi tham gia qua trnh san xuat va thay oi hnh thai vat chat ban au.

V du:
Si (det vai);
Vai (may ao);
at set (nung gach);
Phoi sat (luyen thep);
Ma (nau ng);
ng (lam keo);
v.v
Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep (TK 622):
The hien ve chi ph nhan cong: lng tra theo san pham va cac khoan phai
thanh toan cho cong nhan trc tiep san xuat.
Chi ph san xuat chung (TK 627):
Cac chi ph phat sinh trong qua trnh san xuat: chi ph phan xng, to, oi
san xuat gom:
Chi ph nhan vien;
Chi ph vat lieu, cong cu dung cu;
Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh;
Chi ph ien, nc;
Chi ph bang tien khac.
b. Chi ph ngoai san xuat (nhom tai khoan 64)
Con goi la chi ph lu thong, tiep th hay chi ph hoat ong (operating cost).
Bao gom:


42

Chi ph ban hang
Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep
Chi ph ban hang (TK 641):
Chi ph phuc vu cho qua trnh lu thong hang hoa, gom:
Chi ph nhan vien;
Chi ph vat lieu, cong cu dung cu;
Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh;
Chi ph van chuyen, boc xep, bao quan;
Chi ph quang cao, tiep th;
Chi ph bang tien khac.
Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep (TK 642):
Chi ph phuc vu chung cho toan doanh nghiep, bao gom:
Chi ph nhan vien van phong;
Chi ph vat lieu, cong cu dung cu;
Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh;
Thue, le ph, lai vay;
Chi ph hoi ngh, tiep khach, cong tac;
Chi ph bang tien khac.
c. Chi ph thi ky va chi ph san pham (Period costs & product costs)
Chi ph thi ky: chi ph phat sinh chung trong mot ky kinh doanh, co the lien
quan en nhieu oi tng hay nhieu san pham khac nhau.
Chi ph san pham: chi ph gan lien, lam nen gia tr san pham, ang ton kho
hoac a c ban.
2.1.2. Phan loai theo ke toan quan tr
a. Chi ph kha bien, chi ph bat bien


43

Chi ph kha bien (variable costs): la chi ph thay oi cung vi khoi lng
hoat ong theo mot ty le thuan. Khi khoi lng hoat ong tang len, lam cho chi
ph kha bien tang theo va ngc lai, khi khoi lng hoat ong giam i, lam cho
chi ph kha bien cung giam theo. Khi khoi lng hoat ong bang khong, chi ph
ph kha bien cung bang khong.
V du:
Chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep;
Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep;
Chi ph hang ban (gia von hang ban);
Chi ph bao b ong goi;
Chi ph van chuyen, boc xep;
Lng tra theo khoi lng san pham;
Chi ph kha bien khac.
Chi ph bat bien (Fixed costs): la chi ph khong thay oi cung vi khoi lng
hoat ong. Xet cho 1 san pham (n v san pham) chi ph bat bien co quan he ty
le nghch vi khoi lng hoat ong. Chi ph bat bien cho n v san pham tang
len khi khoi lng hoat ong giam va ngc lai.
V du:
Chi ph thue nha, thue may moc thiet b;
Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh trong ky;
Tien lng tra theo thi gian;
Chi ph quang cao, tiep th;
Chi ph bat bien khac.
Khao sat cac ham so chi ph:
Ham so tong chi ph: Y = a + bX; o th:



44










o th 2.1. ham so tong chi ph
Trong o:
Y: bien so phu thuoc (dependent variable): tong chi ph (total costs);
X: bien so oc lap (independet variable): khoi lng (volume);
b: o doc (slope): chi ph kha bien n v (variable cost per unit of vol.);
a: tung o goc (intercept point): tong chi ph bat bien (fixed cost);
bX: tong chi ph kha bien (variable cost).
Nhan xet:
Chi ph bat bien khong oi cung vi khoi lng hoat ong, ng
bieu dien chi ph bat bien the hien tren o th, song song vi truc
hoanh;
Chi ph kha bien thay oi cung vi khoi lng hoat ong ng
doc len;
Tong chi ph bang vi chi ph bat bien khi khoi lng hoat ong
bang 0, ng bieu dien tong chi ph bat au t iem chi ph bat
bien (nut chan) va song song vi ng chi ph kha bien v gia
chung co chung mot o doc b: chi ph kha bien n v;
a
0
bX
Y = a + bX
X
Y


45

Mot s thay oi trong chi ph kha bien n v tc thay oi o doc
(b) se lam cho ng bieu dien chi ph kha bien (bX) va ng
bieu dien tong chi ph (Y = a + bX) dch chuyen. Khi thay oi tang
len, ng bieu dien chi ph kha bien va ng bieu dien tong chi
ph se dch chuyen ve ben trai (shift to the left); ngc lai khi thay
oi giam i, cac ng bieu dien tren se dch chuyen ve ben phai
(shift to the right);
o nhay cam (co gian) cua chi ph kha bien hay tong chi ph trc
s thay oi cua khoi lng hoat ong, le thuoc vao o ln cua chi
ph kha bien n v, tc o doc tren o th.
b. Chi ph trc tiep va chi ph gian tiep:
Chi ph trc tiep (direct costs): la chi ph cau thanh san pham , gan lien vi
gia mot san pham hoac mot dch vu nhat nh.
Chi ph gian tiep (indirect costs): la chi ph co lien quan en nhieu san
pham, khong trc tiep lam tang gia tr san pham (non value added costs).
c. Chi ph c hoi (opportunity costs):
La li ch (benefit) b bo qua khi quyet nh la chon gia cac phng an;
li ch cua mot d an b bo qua tr thanh chi ph cua d an c chon. Khai
niem chi ph c hoi la yeu to quan trong va chu yeu khi tnh toan hieu qua cua
d an ve mat tai chnh (financial value) cung nh ve mat kinh te (economic
value) mac du chung khong c phan anh trong so sach cua ke toan tai chnh.
d. Chi ph chm (sunk costs):
Con goi la chi ph lch s hay chi ph qua kh, a phat sinh thc te va a
c ke toan ghi tren so sach; tuy nhien, chung khong c e cap khi tnh toan
hieu qua kinh te cua nhng d an trong tng lai, nham tranh nhng bop meo
(distortions) trc viec ra quyet nh.


46

Chi ph c hoi va chi ph chm la nhng pham tru rat kho nhan thc oi
vi cac nhan vien ke toan chuyen nghiep.
2.2. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN CHI PH
Dung phng phap so sanh, phan tch chung cac ch tieu chu yeu da vao
cac ch tieu goc: ch tieu ke hoach, ky trc, bnh quan nganh hoac th trng.
2.2.1. Tong mc chi ph thc hien
La ch tieu khai quat ve tnh hnh thc hien chi ph trong ky, c so sanh
n gian gia tong chi ph thc hien va chi ph ke hoach.
Chi ph thc hien
He so khai quat tnh hnh thc hien chi ph =
Chi ph ke hoach
(2.1)
He so >1: chi ph tang so vi ke hoach.
He so <1: chi ph giam so vi ke hoach.
Tuy nhien, chi ph ma trong o cac yeu to chi ph kha bien thay oi cung
vi s thay oi cua khoi lng hoat ong, v vay ban than he so khai quat tren
cha noi len c ban chat cua s tang, giam chi ph. Muon phan tch chat lng
cua chi ph phai at chung trong moi quan he vi doanh thu hoat ong thc te.
2.2.2. Ty suat chi ph
To ng chi ph
Ty sua t chi ph = 100%
Doanh thu
(2.2)
Ty suat chi ph cho biet can bao nhieu ong chi ph e tao ra mot ong
doanh thu. Khi phan tch chung, can lu y tnh chat ng x cua chi ph: bat bien,
kha bien.
Tong mc chi ph thay oi theo khoi lng hoat ong tuy nhien ty suat chi
ph thng on nh hoac bien ong rat t trong nhieu thi ky. V vay, ay la mot
loai ch tieu chat lng tieu bieu dung lam thc o tnh hieu qua trong viec
ieu hanh, quan ly chi ph. Moi nganh nghe kinh doanh khac nhau thng co
mot ty suat chi ph ac trng khac nhau.


47

2.2.3. Tiet kiem chi ph
Mc boi chi hay tiet kiem chi ph la phan chenh lech gia chi ph thc hien
thc te so vi chi ph thc hien c tnh tren c s ty suat chi ph ke hoach so
vi doanh thu thc hien.
( )
Mc tiet kie m (-) hay boi chi (+) = Doanh thu TH TSCP thc hien - TSCP ke hoa ch
V du minh hoa: Co tai lieu tai mot doanh nghiep sau:
Ch tieu Ke hoach Thc hien Chenh lech
Doanh thu 1.000 1.200 +200
Gia von hang ban 800 960 +160
Ty suat gia von hang ban 80% 80% 0%
Chi ph hoat ong 140 162 +22
Ty suat chi ph 14% 13,5% -0,5%
Li nhuan 60 78 +18
Ty suat li nhuan 6,0% 6,5% +0,5%
Bang 2.1. Tnh hnh li nhuan va ty suat li nhuan
Tong chi ph thc hien so vi ke hoach:
So tuyet oi: 162 140 = +22
So tng oi:
162
100% 115, 7%
140
=
Ty suat chi ph:
Ke hoach:
140
100% 14%
1.000
=
Thc hien:
162
100% 13, 5%
1.200
=
Mc tiet kiem chi ph:
Tong chi ph thc hien tnh theo ty suat chi ph ke hoach:
= 1200 x 14% = 168
Tong chi ph thc hien thc te = 162.


48

Mc tiet kiem chi ph = 162 168 = -6.
Ty le tiet kiem so vi doanh thu:
6
100% 0, 5%
1.200
= .
Mc tang li nhuan do tiet kiem chi ph:
Li nhuan thc hien thc te = 78.
Li nhuan thc hien tnh theo ty suat li nhuan ke hoach
= 1.200 x 6% = 72.
Mc tang li nhuan do tiet kiem chi ph = 78 72 = 6.
Ty le mc tang li nhuan so vi doanh thu:
6
100% 0, 5%.
1.200
=
Nhan xet:
Ty suat chi ph thc hien thc te thap hn ke hoach: 13,5% -14% =-0,5%.
Vi gia nh theo so lieu tren, ty suat gia von hang ban khong oi, mc tiet
kiem chi ph la 6 trieu ong (ty le 0,5%) a lam tang mc li nhuan tng ng:
(6,5% - 6%)x 1.200 = 6 trieu ong.
2.3. PHAN TCH CAC KHOAN MUC CHI PH CHU YEU
Cac khoan muc chi ph eu chu anh hng bi cac nhan to hnh thanh chi
ph. Gia chung eu co moi quan he tuyen tnh, trc tiep anh hng en chi ph
va co the sap at e phan tch mc o anh hng tng nhan to bang cac phng
phap ky thuat cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh.
Trong cong tac quan ly doanh nghiep, chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san
xuat hang hoa la nhng ch tieu kinh te quan trong, luon luon c cac nha quan
ly quan tam, chu trong. o la v, chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san pham la
nhng ch tieu phan anh chat lng cua moi hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cua
doanh nghiep.



49

Thong qua nhng thong tin ve chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san pham,
nhng ngi quan ly doanh nghiep nam c chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san
pham thc te cua tng loai hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. T
o phan tch, anh gia tnh hnh thc hien cac nh mc chi ph va d toan chi
ph, tnh hnh s dung tai san vat t, lao ong tien von, tnh hnh thc hien ke
hoach gia thanh san pham e co nhng quyet nh trong quan ly kinh doanh cua
doanh nghiep.

Tuy theo tng loai hnh hoat ong cua doanh nghiep, chi ph san xuat co
the uc chia thanh cac khoan muc chi ph khac nhau. Song, ay ch trnh bay
phng phap phan tch tnh hnh bien ong mot so khoan muc chu yeu sau ay:
Khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep.
Khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep.
Khoan muc chi ph san xuat chung.
Ba khoan muc tren the hien c nhng chi ph c ban cua cac yeu to san
xuat kinh doanh va thong thng chiem ty trong ln trong gia thanh san pham
cua doanh nghiep.
2.3.1. Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep.
Khoan muc chi ph nguyen lieu, vat lieu trc tiep (direct material cost) bao
gom chi ph ve nguyen lieu, vat lieu chnh, vat lieu phu, nhien lieu s dung va
muc ch trc tiep san xuat kinh doanh san pham hang hoa. Khong tnh vao
khoan muc nay nhng chi ph nguyen lieu, vat lieu s dung vao muc ch chung.
Khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu thng chiem ty trong ln trong gia thanh
san pham san xuat cua doanh nghiep.



50

Ngay nay, khi tien bo khoa hoc ky thuat a phat trien nhanh chong, nang
suat lao ong c tang len khong ngng dan en s thay oi c cau chi ph
trong gia thanh san pham. o la ty trong hao ph lao ong song giam thap, con
ty trong hao ph lao ong vat hoa ngay cang tang len. Bi vay, viec phan tch
cac nhan to anh hng en cac khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu, tm moi bien
phap giam bt chi ph nguyen vat lieu trong gia thanh san pham co mot y ngha
rat ln, lam tang mc li nhuan cho cac doanh nghiep.
e san xuat ra san pham, cac doanh nghiep phan ln phai s dung nhieu
loai nguyen vat lieu. Do vay tong mc chi ph nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat san
pham phu thuoc vao cac nhan to:
Khoi lng san pham hoan thanh (quantity of finished products
ky hieu: M
q
);
Ket cau ve khoi lng san pham (Density of finished products ky
hieu: M
d
);
nh mc tieu hao nguyen vat lieu cho mot n v san pham
(material norm of product ky hieu: M
n
);
n gia cua nguyen vat lieu (material unit price ky hieu: M
u
).

Vay, tong mc chi ph nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat san pham c xac
nh bang cong thc:
M = q n u

e phan tch trnh o hoan thanh ke hoach ve tong mc chi ph nguyen vat
lieu, trc het phai xac nh oi tng phan tch:

1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 M = M - M = q n u - q n u


Cac nhan to anh hng c xac nh nh sau:


51

Do anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng va nhan to ket cau san pham
san xuat:
Ta s dung cong thc e tnh mc anh hng cua nhan to M
q,d
nh sau:
q,d q,d 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 M = M M = q n u q n u


Do anh hng cua nhan to tieu hao nguyen vat lieu:
Cong thc s dung theo phng phap thay the lien hoan:
n n q,d 1 1 0 1 0 0 M = M - M = q n u q n u


Do anh hng cua nhan to n gia nguyen vat lieu:
Cong thc s dung:
u u n 1 1 1 1 1 0 M = M - M = q n u q n u


Tong hp s anh hng cua ba nhan to tren:
q,d n u 1 0 M = M + M + M = M M

V du minh hoa:
Phan tch bien ong khoan muc tong chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep, can
c vao tai lieu thu thap c tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau:
Khoi lng
san pham hoan
thanh
n gia
nguyen vat lieu
(1000)
Mc tieu hao
NVL cho san
xuat 1 SP (kg)
Ten
san
pham
KH TH
Loai
nguyen
vat lieu
KH TH KH TH
a 20 22 10 8
A 20 25
b 30 28 15 12
a 20 22 18 20
B 50 50
b 30 28 15 14
Bang 2.2. Tnh hnh s dung nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat


52

Hng dan: e co the tnh nhanh chong va chnh xac cac ch tieu phan anh
mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to en khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc
tiep ta lap bang sau:
Chi ph nguyen vat lieu cho
SX san pham trong moi ky
Chi ph nguyen vat lieu vi s
bien ong cua cac nhan to
Ten san
pham
0 0 0 q n u

1 1 1 q n u

1 0 0 q n u

1 1 0 q n u

4.000 4.400 5.000 4.000
A
9.000 8.400 11.250 9.000
18.000 22.000 18.000 20.000
B
22.500 19.600 22.500 21.000
Tong cong 53.500 54.400 56.750 54.000
Bang 2.3. Bien ong cua chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep
Can c anh gia bien ong cua cac nhan to:
nh mc tieu hao cua tng loai nguyen vat lieu cho n v san pham.
Nhan to nay cang giam, chng to trnh o s dung nguyen lieu e san xuat n
v san pham hang hoa cang tiet kiem. Con nhan to nay cang tang len, ieu o se
c anh gia ngc lai.
n gia cua tng loai nguyen vat lieu: Nhan to nay phu thuoc vao rat nhieu
yeu to, nh:
+ Gia mua nguyen vat lieu: ay la mot nhan to khach quan. Bi v, gia ca
la do quan he cung cau tren th trng quyet nh. Neu cung ln hn cau th gia
re hn, con neu cung nho hi cau th gia at hn.
+ To chc qua trnh thu mua nguyen vat lieu: Gia ca la nhan to khach quan.
Song, to chc qua trnh thu mua hp ly la cho: doanh nghiep tm ra th trng
ma o nguyen vat lieu co quan he cung ln hn cau, at doanh nghiep se mua
c nguyen vat lieu vi gia re hn.


53

Mat khac, doanh nghiep can nghien cu phng thc thu mua, thanh toan,
van chuyen, bao quan, boc xep phu hp vi chi ph la thap nhat. Do o, n gia
cua tng loai nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat n v san pham hang hoa la thap
nhat. ong thi doanh nghiep cung phai chu y en ca chat lng nguyen vat
lieu c cung ng. Co nh vay, mi am bao chat lng san pham san xuat ra
at tieu chuan chat lng cao.
2.3.2. Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep.
Khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep (direct labor cost) bao gom chi ph
ve tien cong, tien trch bao hiem xa hoi, bao hiem y te va kinh ph cong oan
cua cong nhan trc tiep san xuat (goi tat la chi ph tien lng cong nhan san
xuat). Khong tnh vao khoan muc chi ph nay la so tien cong va trch bao hiem
xa hoi, bao hiem y te, kinh ph cong oan cua nhan vien san xuat chung, nhan
vien quan ly va nhan vien ban hang.
Khoan muc tong mc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep c anh gia tren c s
xac nh mc bien ong tuyet oi va mc bien ong tng oi.
Phan tch tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep c thc hien chu yeu qua hai
cach tnh toan mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to, viec ap dung cach tnh nao
tuy thuoc vao d lieu thu thap tai doanh nghiep ma chnh xac nhat.
Cach 1: Da tren cac nhan to nh: so lng san pham san xuat, tieu hao gi
cong e san xuat ra mot n v san pham, n gia tien cong lao ong cho mot
gi cong. Theo phng phap thay the lien hoan hay so chenh lech ta co the xac
nh c mc o anh hng cua 03 nhan to nay en tong chi ph nhan cong cua
doanh nghiep.
Cach 2: Gia s tong mc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep chu anh hng bi hai
nhan to: So lng cong nhan san xuat va tien lng bnh quan. Co the viet di
dang cong thc sau ay:


54

Tong mc tien lng
cua cong nhan san xuat
=
So lng
cong nhan
x
Tien lng
bnh quan
Hay co the viet di dang ky hieu:
L = T . X
Bang phng phap loai tr, co the xac nh s anh hng lan lt tng
nhan to en ch tieu phan tch, nh sau:
oi tng phan tch:
1 0 1 1 0 0 L = L - L = T . X T . X
L: Mc chenh lech tuyet oi ve tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san
xuat gia thc te vi ke hoach.
L
1
, L
0
: Tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat ky thc te va ky ke
hoach.
Do anh hng cua nhan to so lng cong nhan san xuat:
T 1 0 0 L = (T - T ) .X

Do anh hng cua nhan to tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san
xuat:
X 1 0 1 L = (X - X ) .T

Tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat chu s tac ong bi hai nhan
to: ket cau cong nhan cua tng bo phan san xuat hoac tng loai cong nhan trong
doanh nghiep va tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat trong tng bo
phan hoac tng loai cong nhan.
Neu ta goi d
1
, d
0
la ket cau cong nhan san xuat cua tng bo phan hoac tng
loai cong nhan trong doanh nghiep ky thc te va ky ke hoach. Ket cau cong
nhan c xac nh bang cong thc:
1 0
1 0
1 0
t t
d = ; d =
T T



55

Trong o:
t
1
- t
0
la so lng cong nhan san xuat tng bo phan, hay tng loai cong
nhan san xuat trong doanh nghiep ky thc te va ky ke hoach.
Goi x
1
; x
0
la tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat tng bo phan
hoac tng loai cong nhan ky thc te va ke hoach cua doanh nghiep.
Co the xac nh s anh hng lan lt tng nhan to en tien lng bnh
quan cua cong nhan san xuat trong doanh nghiep, nh sau:
Do anh hng cua nhan to ket cau cong nhan:

d 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 L = T .d .x - T .d .x = (d - d ).T .x


Do anh hng cua nhan to tien lng bnh quan cua tng bo phan
hoac tng loai cong nhan trong doanh nghiep.

x 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 L = T .d .x - T .d .x = (x - x ).T .d


Tong hp mc o anh hng cua tng nhan to, anh gia nhng nguyen
nhan va kien ngh nhng bien phap, nham giam chi ph tien lng trong gia
thanh n v san pham, gop phan nang cao mc li nhuan cho doanh nghiep.

T d x L = L + L + L












56

V du minh hoa:
Phan tch khoan muc tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep qua so lieu sau:
Ch tieu Ke hoach Thc hien
- Gia tr san lng hang hoa (trieu ong) 1.000 1.200
- So lng cong nhan san xuat (ngi) 100 200
Trong o:
+ Cong nhan san xuat chnh 70 180
+ Cong nhan san xuat phu 30 20
- Tien lng bnh quan (1.000) 440 580
Trong o:
+ Cong nhan san xuat chnh 500 600
+ Cong nhan san xuat phu 300 400
Bang 2.4. Tnh hnh chi ph tien lng tai doanh nghiep
Hng dan:
- Xac nh oi tng phan tch:
1 0 L = L - L = 116.000.000 44.000.000 72.000.000 =
- Mc tac ong cua nhan to san lng en chi ph nhan cong trc tiep:
T 1 0 0 0 L = (T - T ).d .x = 44.000.000


- Tac ong cua nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat:
d 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 L = T .d .x - T .d .x = (d - d ).T .x 8.000.000 =


- Tac ong cua nhan to tien lng cua tng loai cong nhan:
x 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 L = T .d .x - T .d .x = (x - x ).T .d 20.000.000 =


- Tong hp cac nhan to anh hng:
T d x L = L + L + L = 44.000.000+8.000.000+20.000.000=72.000.000
- Tnh cac ch so phu phuc vu cho qua trnh anh gia so lieu:


57

Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach gia tr san lng:
1.200
100% 120%
1.000
=

Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach so lng cong nhan:
200
100% 200%
100
=

Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach nang suat lao ong:
120%
100% 60%
200%
=

Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach tien lng bnh quan:
580
100% 131,82%
440
=


2.3.3. D bao chi ph san xuat chung bang hoi quy n
S dung phng phap thong ke hoi quy nham e d bao chi ph san xuat
chung theo khoi lng san xuat linh hoat, ieu nay se giup cho nha quan ly co
the chu ong ieu tiet lng hang san xuat cho phu hp vi quy mo hoat ong
tnh hnh tai chnh cua n v.
Goi:
Y: la chi ph san xuat chung
a: la nh ph san xuat chung
b: la bien ph san xuat chung tren 1 n v san pham
X: so lng san pham can san xuat
Ta co phng trnh hoi quy cua chi ph san xuat chung Y (bien so phu thuoc
- dependent variable) theo khoi lng san pham can san xuat X (bien so oc lap
- independent variable) nh sau:
Y = a + bX (2.3)


58

Lay v du minh hoa tai mot doanh nghiep co tnh hnh san xuat qua 6 thang
au nam nh sau:
n v tnh: 1.000
Ky san xuat 1 2 3 4 5 6
So lng san xuat
trong ky (san pham)
10.000 11.000 12.000 13.000 14.000 15.000
Tong chi ph san xuat
chung trong ky
115.000 117.500 120.000 122.500 125.000 127.500
Bang 2.5. Tong chi ph san xuat chung tieu hao tai doanh nghiep

S dung Microsoft excel e tnh e tm phng trnh hoi quy, cu the la tm
tung o goc a (intercept) va o doc hay he so goc b (slope), cac thao tac thc
hien nh sau:
Lenh: Tools / Analysis / Regression / OK / chon d lieu a vao o Input Y
Range va o Input X Range. Ta c ket qua sau:
















59

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,9931
R Square 0,9863
Adjusted R Square 0,9829
Standard Error 559,2512
Observations 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1,00 90.062.285,71 90.062.285,71 287,96 0,00
Residual 4,00 1.251.047,62 312.761,90
Total 5,00 91.313.333,33

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 92.509,52 1.686,61 54,85 0,00 87.826,75 97.192,30
X Variable 1 2,27 0,13 16,97 0,00 1,90 2,64
Bang 2.6. Bang ket qua phan tch cho bi Microsoft Excel
T ket qua cho bi Microsoft Excel, ta tm c phng trnh 2.3 va c
viet lai nh sau:
Y = 92.509,52 + 2,27X (2.4)
Giai thch cac thong so:
Gia tr thong so b = 2,27, ch ra o doc cua ng hoi quy oi vi bien X,
mang y ngha la: trong khoang gia tr X

(khoi lng san xuat) t 10.000 san
pham (min) en 15.000 san pham (max) khi X thay oi tang 1 n v th Y (chi
ph san xuat chung) se tang len c lng mot cach trung bnh vao khoang 2,27
n v.




60

Gia tr thong so a = 93.509,52 ch ra tung o goc cua ng hoi quy, mang y
ngha la chi ph san xuat chung toi thieu khi ma X bang 0. Nhng cach giai thch
nh vay la may moc va ap at; hn na, khong co gia X

nao trong tap d lieu
tren ay bang 0 nh vay ca.
Vi phng 2.4, lanh ao doanh nghiep co the d bao c chi ph san xuat
chung tng ng vi quy mo san xuat cac ky tiep theo, chang han t v du tren ta
co the d bao chi ph san xuat chung cho 6 thang con lai cua nam vi cac mc
khoi lng t 16.000 en 21.000 san pham:
Ky san xuat 7 8 9 10 11 12
So lng san xuat
trong ky (san pham)
16.000 17.000 18.000 19.000 20.000 21.000
Tong chi ph san xuat
chung trong ky
128.830 131.100 133.370 135.640 137.910 140.180
Bang 2.7. D bao chi ph san xuat chung cho cac thang cua nam

2.4. PHAN TCH BIEN ONG GIA THANH
2.4.1. Phan tch bien ong gia thanh n v
Muc ch phan tch:
Phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh n v san pham se giup
cho cac nha quan ly biet c mot cach chnh xac va cu the tnh hnh thc hien
cac nh mc kinh te ky thuat, tnh hnh tiet kiem hay vt chi tren tng khoan
chi ph. T o, anh gia c chnh xac cong tac quan ly gia thanh cua toan
doanh nghhiep, a ra c cac bien phap hu hieu e giam gia thanh.
Phng phap phan tch:




61

Bc cong viec au tien khi phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia
thanh n v san pham la anh gia chung. Viec anh gia chung tnh hnh thc
hien ke hoach gia thanh n v san pham c tien hanh bang phng phap: So
sanh gia gia thanh n v thc te vi gia thanh n v ke hoach tren tng loai
san pham ca ve so tuyet oi va so tng oi. Qua ket qua so sanh, se neu len
nhan xet chung ve bien ong gia thanh n v san pham.
Nam nay TH so vi KH TH so vi NT San pham
KH TH
Nam
trc So tien Ty le So tien Ty le
A 1.880 1.920 1.900 + 40 + 2,13% + 20 + 1,05%
B 1.350 1.306 1.450 - 44 - 3,26% - 144 - 9,93%
C 1.410 1.360 1.520 - 50 - 3,55% - 160 -10,52%
D 3.250 3.310 - + 60 + 1,85% - -
Bang 2.8. Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh n v
Thc hien so vi ke hoach: The hien tnh hnh ke hoach gia thanh;
Thc hien so vi nam trc: The hien xu hng phat trien, cai tien gia thanh
cua doanh nghiep.
Phan tch chung:
Nam nay doanh nghiep a xay dng ke hoach ha thap gia thanh vi tinh
than tch cc (ke hoach so vi nam trc). Tat ca san pham eu co ke hoach gia
thanh thap hn so vi nam trc;
San pham (B) va (C) eu co gia thanh thc hien thap hn so vi nam trc,
chng to doanh nghiep a thc hien tot nhiem vu ha gia thanh san pham oi vi
2 san pham nay;
oi vi san pham (A) gia thanh thc hien cao hn ke hoach va nam trc,
do o can phai i sau xem xet nguyen nhan lam cho san pham (A) tang so vi
ke hoach e ra;


62

oi vi san pham (D) la san pham mi, gia thanh thc hien cao hn so vi
ke hoach th can xem xet lai viec xay dng ke hoach co sat vi thc te khong.
2.4.2. Phan tch bien ong tong gia thanh san pham so sanh c
Muc ch phan tch:
Nham anh gia chung tnh hnh bien ong gia thanh theo tng loai san
pham va toan bo san pham san xuat trong ky. Giup chung ta nhan thc mot cach
tong quat kha nang tang hay giam li tc cua doanh nghiep do anh hng cua
gia thanh san pham nao.
q
n
: khoi lng san xuat nam trc; z
n
: gia thanh san pham nam trc
q
0
: khoi lng san xuat ky ke hoach; z
0
: gia thanh san pham ke hoach
q
1
: khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien; z
1
: gia thanh san pham thc hien
San pham so sanh c:
La nhng san pham a chnh thc san xuat nhieu ky va qua trnh san xuat
on nh, co gia thanh san xuat tng oi chnh xac, la can c e so sanh khi s
dung lam tai lieu phan tch.
San pham khong so sanh c:
La nhng san pham mi a vao san xuat hoac mi san xuat th, qua trnh
san xuat cha on nh, do o gia thanh thc te con co nhieu bien ong, cha u
can c e so sanh khi s dung lam tai lieu phan tch.
Xac nh oi tng phan tch:
Viec phan tch c tien hanh tren 2 ch tieu phan tch la mc ha va ty le
ha gia thanh:
Mc ha: Bieu hien bang so tuyet oi cua ket qua ha gia thanh nam nay so
vi nam trc, phan anh kha nang tang li tc, tang tch luy nhieu hay t, ky
hieu: M.


63

Ty le ha: Bieu hien bang so tng oi cua ket qua ha gia thanh nam nay so
vi nam trc, ch tieu nay phan anh toc o ha nhanh hay cham va trnh o quan
ly trong viec phan au ha thap gia thanh, ky hieu: R.
Cong thc xac nh mc ha va ty le ha:
1 0
1 0
M = M M
R = R R



Vi:






Xac nh cac nhan to anh hng en oi tng phan tch:
e tnh toan chung ta s dung phng phap thay the lien hoan e phan tch,
nham xac nh cac nhan to anh hng en mc ha gia thanh thc te so vi ke
hoach va ty le ha gia thanh thc te so vi ke hoach.
Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng (ky hieu q):
Nhan to san lng thng i kem vi nhan to ket cau. Nhan to ket cau
khong anh hng en nhan to san lng neu ty trong cua cac mat hang la nh
nhau. Neu san lng tang ma ket cau khong oi va gia thanh khong oi th cac
mat hang coi nh eu hoan thanh vi ty le nh nhau, do o khi tien hanh thay
the ta c:
Goi k la ty le gia khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien so vi ke hoach, nh
vay ta xac nh k thong qua cong thc sau:
1 1 1 1 n
0 0 0 0 n
1
1
1 n
0
0
0 n
M = q .z q .z
M = q .z q .z
M
R = 100%
q .z
M
R = 100%
q .z

64

1 n
0 n
q .z
k = 100%
q .z

Khi o q
1
la khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien, ta viet lai:
1 0 q = k.q

Thay the vao cong thc tnh mc ha va ty le ha ke hoach, ta c:
q 0 0 0 n 0
q 0
q 0
0 n 0 n
M = k.q .z k.q .z = k.M
M k.M
R = 100% = 100% = R
k.q .z k. q .z

(2.5)
T cong thc 2.5 ta tnh mc tac ong cua nhan to khoi lng san xuat en
oi tng phan tch nh sau:
( )
q q 0 0
q q 0
M = M M = M k 100%
R = R - R = 0

Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat (ky hieu d):
Thay the san lng san xuat ky thc hien vao cong thc tnh mc ha va ty le
ha ke hoach, ta c:
d 1 0 1 n
d
d
1 n
M = q .z q .z
M
R = 100%
q .z

(2.6)
T cong thc 2.6, ta de dang xac nh c s tac ong cua nhan to ket cau
san pham san xuat en oi tng phan tch thong qua cong thc:
d d q
d d q
M = M M
R = R - R

Anh hng cua nhan to gia thanh n v (ky hieu z):
Gi nguyen san lng san xuat thc te, ta thay the gia thanh n v vao
trong cong thc xac nh M
d
va R
d
, cong thc c viet lai nh sau:


65

z 1 1 1 n 1
z
z
1 n
M = q .z q .z = M
M
R = 100%
q .z

(2.7)
T cong thc 2.7, ta tnh c mc o anh hng cua nhan to gia thanh n
v en oi tng can phan tch qua cong thc:
z z d
z z d
M = M M
R = R - R

Tong hp tac ong cua ba nhan to anh hng phai bang vi oi tng can
phan tch:
q d z
q d z
M = M + M + M
R = R + R + R



V du minh hoa:
Co tai lieu ve tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh tai mot doanh nghiep
sau:
n v: ong
Khoi lng san xuat Gia thanh n v san pham
San pham
Ke hoach Thc hien Nam trc Ke hoach Thc hien
A 12.000 12.400 40.000 39.200 40.840
B 1.800 2.000 26.000 26.000 26.000
C 1.800 2.400 410.000 393.600 396.880
Bang 2.9. Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh
Yeu cau: Hay phan tch tnh hnh thc hien nhiem vu ha thap gia thanh cua
SP so sanh c.


66

Hng dan: e co the tnh toan c nhanh va chnh xac cac ch tieu trong
dau xch ma (), can phai co cac phng phap thch hp e hoan tat cac ch tieu
o. Dang bang tnh di ay co the phuc vu cho cong viec tnh toan:

n v tnh: 1.000
San pham
0 n q z

0 0 q z

1 n q z

1 0 q z

1 1 q z

A 480.000 470.400 496.000 486.080 506.416
B 46.800 46.800 52.000 52.000 52.000
C 738.000 708.480 984.000 944.640 952.512
Tong cong 1.264.800 1.225.680 1.532.000 1.482.720 1.510.928
Bang 2.10. Bang phan tch bien ong tong gia thanh
oi tng phan tch: gom co mc ha (M) va ty le ha (R)
1 0
1 0
M = M M = -21.072 - (-39.120) = 18.048 (ng)
R = R R = -1,375% - (-3,093%) = 1,718%



Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng san xuat (q):
Tnh ty so khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien so vi ke hoach:
1 n
0 n
1.532.000
100% 121,12%
1.264.800
q .z
k = 100%
q .z
= =

Mc o anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng en oi tng phan tch:
( ) ( ) q 0
q q 0
= -39.120 121,12%-100% = -8.262,144 (ng) M = M k - 100%
R = R - R = 0

Nhan to khoi lng san xuat khong anh hng (khong tac ong) en ty le
ha gia thanh cua doanh nghiep.
Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau khoi lng san xuat (d):
d d q
d d q
= -49.280 - (121,12% -39.120) = -1.897,856 (ng)
= -3,216% - (-3,093%) = -0,123%
M = M M
R = R - R

67

Anh hng cua nhan to gia thanh n v san pham (z):
z z d
z z d
= -21.072 - (-49.280) = 28.208 (ng)
= -1,375% - (-3,216%) = 1,841%
M = M M
R = R - R

Tong hp ba nhan to anh hng en oi tng phan tch:
q d z = 0 + (-0,123) + 1,841 = 1,718%
M = -8.262,144 + (-1.897,856) + 28.208 = 18.048 (ng)
R = R + R + R

anh gia:
Trong ky thc hien doanh nghiep a khong hoan thanh ke hoach tong gia
thanh e ra, cu the la tong gia thanh a tang len 18.048 (ng) tng ng vi gia
thanh a tang vi ty le la 1,718% so vi ke hoach.
Tong gia thanh tang se lam cho li nhuan cua doanh nghiep giam, gay bat
li cho doanh nghiep. Neu i vao phan tch chi tiet hn, ta thay tong gia thanh
tang la do gia thanh n v tao nen, gia thanh n v tang a lam cho tong gia
thanh tang them 28.208 (ng) tng ng vi toc o tang la 1,841%, ay la nhan
to chu quan xuat phat t noi tai doanh nghiep va ieu nay chng to rang cong
viec quan ly chi ph san xuat la khong co hieu qua.
Nhan to khoi lng san xuat va ket cau san pham san xuat bien ong theo
chieu hng co li cho doanh nghiep (nhan to khoi lng lam giam 8.262,144
ngan ong, con nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat lam giam 1.897,856 ngan
ong). Tuy nhien ay la hai nhan to tac ong mot cach khach quan, do o khong
the lay ay la can c e noi en tnh hieu qua quan ly chi ph san xuat cua
doanh nghiep.
2.4.3. Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra
e thay c moi quan he gia chi ph va ket qua thu nhap trong hoat ong
san xuat kinh doanh, nhat la nhng doanh nghiep co san xuat nhng san pham
khong the so sanh c, ma loai nay chiem ty trong ln trong tong so san pham


68

san xuat c cua doanh nghiep. V vay, viec phan tch ke hoach ha thap gia
thanh cua san pham so sanh c khong thay c s phan au thc hien cua
doanh nghiep, do o ta nen phan tch ch tieu chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham
hang hoa ban ra.
Phng phap phan tch:
So sanh chi ph bnh quan cho 1.000 ong hang hoa ban ra gia cac ky phan
tch e anh gia chung mc chenh lech gia cac ky. Sau o dung phng phap
thay the lien hoan e xac nh cac nhan to anh hng va tm nguyen nhan gay
ra mc chenh lech chi ph bnh quan gia cac ky can phan tch.
Xac nh oi tng phan tch:
Ta goi cac ky hieu sau:
C: chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra;
C
0
: chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra ky ke hoach;
C
1
: chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra ky thc hien;
q: khoi lng san pham;
u: chi ph n v san pham;
p: n gia ban san pham.
Cong thc xac nh chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra la:
q u
C = 1000
q p

Nh vay oi tng phan tch se la:
1 0 C = C C
Tnh cac mc o tac ong cua cac nhan to anh hng en oi tng phan
tch:
Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng (ky hieu q):


69

Goi k la ty le gia khoi lng ky thc hien so vi ke hoach, nh vay ta xac
nh k thong qua cong thc sau:
1 0
0 0
q u
k = 100%
q u

Khi o q
1
la khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien, ta viet lai:
1 0 q = k.q

Thay the vao cong thc tnh chi ph C ky ke hoach, ta c:
0 0 0 0
q 0
0 0 0 0
k.q u k. q u
C = 1000 = 1000 = C
k.q p k. q p






Mc o tac ong cua nhan to khoi lng en oi tng phan tch:
q q 0 C = C C = 0
Vay nhan to khoi lng khong anh hng en chi ph tren 1.000 ong san
pham ban ra.
Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau san pham (ky hieu d):
Thay the khoi lng thc te vao cong thc tnh chi ph C
0
, ta c:
1 0
d
1 0
q u
C = 1000
q p

Khi o, mc o tac ong cua nhan to ket cau c xac nh thong qua cong
thc sau:
d d q C = C C

Anh hng cua nhan to chi ph n v san pham (ky hieu u):
Thay the chi ph n v san pham ky thc te vao cong thc tnh chi ph C
d
,
ta tnh c chi ph C khi co s bien ong cua ket cau san pham (C
u
):
1 1
u
1 0
q u
C = 1000
q p

70

Suy ra: u u d C = C C
Anh hng cua nhan to n gia ban (ky hieu p):
1 1
u 1
1 1
q u
C = 1000 = C
q p

Suy ra: p p u C = C C
Tong hp cac nhan to tac ong phai bang vi oi tng can phan tch:
q d u p C = C + C + C + C

V du minh hoa:
Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra tai mot doanh nghiep vi
d lieu thu thap c sau ay:
San lng SX
(san pham)
Gia thanh n v
(ong)
Gia ban n v
(ong) San pham
KH TH KH TH KH TH
A 11.000 10.900 40.000 48.000 60.000 70.000
B 1.000 900 25.000 25.000 40.000 40.000
C 2.100 2.200 50.000 48.000 90.000 100.000
Bang 2.11. Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh va gia ban
Hng dan: Lap bang tnh toan phuc vu cho cong viec phan tch co dang:
n v tnh: 1.000 ong
San pham
0 0 q u

0 0 q p

1 0 q u

1 0 q p

1 1 q u

1 1 q p

A 440.000 660.000 436.000 654.000 523.200 763.000
B 25.000 40.000 22.500 36.000 22.500 36.000
C 105.000 189.000 110.000 198.000 105.600 220.000
Tong cong 570.000 889.000 568.500 888.000 651.300 1.019.000
Bang 2.12. Phan tch bien ong gia thanh va gia ban


71

Xac nh oi tng phan tch:
1 0 = 639,16 641,17 = -2,01 (o ng) C = C C
Tnh mc tac ong cua cac nhan to en oi tng phan tch:
Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng (ky hieu q):
q q 0 C = C C = 0 (cong th c a c chng minh)
Nhan to khoi lng khong anh hng en bien ong cua chi ph C.
Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau san pham (ky hieu d):
d d q = 640,20 641,17 = -0,97 (o ng) C = C C

Anh hng cua nhan to chi ph n v san pham (ky hieu u):
u u d = 733,45 - 640,20 = 93,25 (ong) C = C C

Anh hng cua nhan to n gia ban (ky hieu p):
p p u = 639,16 733,45 = -94,29 (o ng) C = C C

Tong hp cac nhan to anh hng en oi tng can phan tch:
( ) ( )
C = 0 + -0,97 + 93,25 + -94,29 = -2,01 (ong)

anh gia:
Trong ky thc hien doanh nghiep a giam c chi ph (a hoan thanh ke
hoach chi ph) so vi ke hoach la 2,01 ong, ieu nay cung co ngha la c 1.000
ong doanh so ban ra doan nghiep a tiet kiem c 2,01 ong chi ph. Neu i
vao phan tch chi tiet hn ta thay nguyen nhan doanh nghiep a giam c chi
ph C nay la do nhan to gia ban mang lai, gia ban tang a lam cho chi ph C
giam c 94,29 ong. Nhan to chi ph n v san pham a lam tang chi ph C
93,25 ong, tuy nhien mc tang cua nhan to chi ph n v lai thap hn (cham
hn) so vi nhan to gia ban mang lai, ieu nay a tao nen hieu qua quan ly chi
ph cua doanh nghiep.


72

Co the do doanh nghiep a cai tien chat lng hay mau ma san pham a
lam cho chi ph n v tang, mc tang chi ph n v nay la con cao, phng
hng quan ly ky ti la tiep tuc giam chi ph n v san pham e co the tang
c li nhuan cua doanh nghiep.
























73

CHUONG
PHAN TCH TNH HNH TIEU THU

3.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG VE TNH HNH TIEU THU HANG HOA
3.1.1. Y ngha va nhiem vu phan tch
Tieu thu san pham la qua trnh thc hien gia tr va gia tr s dung cua san
pham hang hoa. Qua tieu thu, san pham chuyen t hnh thai hien vat sang hnh
thai tien te va ket thuc mot vong luan chuyen von. Co tieu thu san pham mi co
von e tien hanh tai san xuat m rong, ay manh toc o luan chuyen von nang
cao hieu qua viec s dung von.
Qua tieu thu tnh chat hu ch cua san pham mi c xac nh mot cach
hoan toan. Co tieu thu c san pham mi chng to nang lc kinh doanh cua
doanh nghiep, the hien ket qua cong tac nghien cu th trng v.v...
Mat khac qua tieu thu doanh nghiep khong nhng thu hoi c nhng chi
ph vat chat trong qua trnh san xuat kinh doanh ma con thc hien c gia tr
lao ong thang d, ay la nguon quan trong nham tch luy vao ngan sach, vao
cac quy cua doanh nghiep nham m rong quy mo san xuat va nang cao i song
can bo cong nhan vien.
Nh vay, nhiem vu cua ngi phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu cua doanh nghiep
gom cac cong viec chu yeu sau ay:
anh gia ung an tnh hnh tieu thu ve mat so lng, chat lng
mat hang, anh gia tnh kp thi cua tieu thu.
Tm ra nguyen nhan va xac nh mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to
en tnh hnh tieu thu.


74

e ra cac bien phap nham ay nhanh toc o tieu thu san pham, tang
khoi lng san pham tieu thu ve so lng va chat lng.
3.1.2. Phan tch khai quat
Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach tieu thu hang hoa c phan tch hai mat so
lng va gia tr.
Phan tch mat gia tr e anh gia tong quat tnh hnh hoat ong, mc
o hoan thanh chung ve ke hoach tieu thu;
Phan tch mat so lng e xem xet chi tiet tng mat hang va s anh
hng cua cac nhan to noi tai va cac nhan to khach quan.
Khi phan tch can chu y en moi quan he can oi gia ton au ky, nhap
trong ky va ton cuoi ky trong ang thc ke toan e xac nh anh hng cua mua
vao va d tr en viec thc hien ban ra, ta co cong thc sau:
Ton au ky + San xuat (nhap) trong ky = Xuat trong ky + Ton cuoi ky
Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc so lng:
Bang 3.1. Tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc so lng
Ton au ky Nhap trong ky Xuat tieu thu Ton cuoi ky
San pham VT
K/h T/h K/h T/h K/h T/h K/h T/h
A Cai 46 90 920 800 920 840 46 50
B Chiec 200 200 4.000 4.100 4.000 4.000 200 300
C Chiec 10 9 200 250 180 200 30 59
Thc hien phng phap so sanh, ta co bang sau:
Bang 3.2. Chenh lech gia thc hien va ke hoach khoi lng tieu thu
Ton au ky Nhap trong ky Xuat tieu thu Ton cuoi ky San
pham Ch.lech Ty le Ch.lech Ty le Ch.lech Ty le Ch.lech Ty le
A 44 95,65% -120 -13,04% -80 -8,70% 4 8,70%
B 0 0,00% 100 2,50% 0 0,00% 100 50,00%
C -1 -10,00% 50 25,00% 20 11,11% 29 96,67%


75

Nhan xet:
oi vi san pham A: ton kho au ky tang 44 san pham (tc tang 95,65% so
vi ke hoach), nhap trong ky a giam 120 san pham (tc giam 13,04% so vi ke
hoach), ton kho cuoi ky van tang 4 san pham (tc tang 8,70% so vi ke hoach).
Mc ton kho au ky va cuoi ky bien ong theo chieu hng co li cho doanh
nghiep, tuy nhien can nghien cu them cac nguyen nhan a lam cho khoi lng
tieu thu giam e ieu chnh kp thi. o co the la nguyen nhan chu quan (chat
lng hang hoa, gia ca, phng thc ban,) hoac khach quan (xu hng xa hoi,
thu nhap, chnh sach Nha nc,)
oi vi san pham B: cac ch tieu co bien ong tot va can oi (nhap, xuat,
ton). Tuy nhien, trong ky nhap tang 100 san pham (tc tang 2,5% so vi ke
hoach nhap) a lam cho ton kho cuoi ky tang 100 san pham (tc tang 50% so vi
ke hoach).
oi vi san pham C: nhap trong ky va tieu thu trong ky eu tang so vi ke
hoach, tuy nhien toc o tang cua hang nhap trong ky cao hn xuat tieu thu (25%
> 11,11%) va mat du ch tieu ton kho au ky a 1 san pham (tc giam 10% so
vi ke hoach) van lam cho ton kho cuoi ky tang qua cao: 29 san pham (tc tang
96,67% so vi ke hoach), gay ong von cho doanh nghiep.
Nh vay, tnh hnh tieu thu dien bien khong eu. Ngoai tr san pham B at
ket qua tieu thu, san pham C vt ke hoach 11,11%, trong khi o san pham A
khong at ke hoach en 8,7%.
Ch tieu ton kho cung la mot yeu to e xem xet tnh hnh tieu thu. Ton au
ky bien ong la do tnh hnh tieu thu ky trc; trong khi o, ton kho cuoi ky
chu anh hng cua tnh hnh tieu thu ky nay.


76

Phan tch theo hnh thc so lng va ch tieu ton kho giup doanh nghiep
anh gia mot cach lien tuc nhieu ky cho tng mat hang va co quyet nh quan tr
phu hp.
Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc gia tr:
Ton au ky San xuat trong ky Tieu thu trong ky Ton cuoi ky
San
pham
Gia
ban co
nh
K/h T/h K/h T/h K/h T/h K/h T/h
A 0,600 27,60 54,00 552,00 480,00 552,00 504,00 27,60 30,00
B 0,125 25,00 25,00 500,00 512,50 500,00 500,00 25,00 37,50
C 0,666 6,66 5,99 133,20 166,50 119,88 133,20 19,98 39,29
D 0,178 - - - 66,75 - 62,30 - 4,45
Tong
cong
- 59,26 84,99 1.185,20 1.225,75 1.171,88 1.199,50 72,58 111,24
So
sanh
143,42% 103,42% 102,36% 153,25%
Bang 3.3. Tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc gia tr
Nhan xet: Tnh hnh chung ve tieu thu at 102,36% la tot cho doanh nghiep;
trong o, mat hang co ty trong cao at ke hoach (san pham B). Tuy nhien, ton
kho au ky vt ke hoach: 143,42% va nhap trong ky vt ke hoach: 103,42%.
Do khong ay manh tieu thu, nhat la nhng mat hang co gia tr cao (san pham
A) a lam cho gia tr hang hoa ton kho cuoi ky vt ke hoach rat cao: 153,25%.
Can xem xet lai kha nang tieu thu cac loai hang hoa tren th trng, tnh hnh
thc hien cac hp ong hoac xem xet lai chat lng san pham, phng thc ban
hang, to chc ky thuat thng mai.
3.1.3. Phan tch bo phan
Da vao tai lieu phan tch: Cac hp ong mua ban (hoac hp ong ngoai
thng); tnh hnh va ket qua thc hien (cac bang thanh ly hp ong) e phan
tch toan dien, xuyen suot qua trnh kinh doanh. Bao gom:


77

Phan tch cac yeu to au vao: nguon cung cap hang hoa, nhom
nguon cung cap hang; phng thc thu mua.
Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo nhom hang, mat hang chu yeu.
Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo phng thc ban hang, hnh thc
thanh toan; ty trong cua tng loai.
Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo th trng: nhom th trng, th
trng chu yeu, th trng mi m, th trng co han ngach va th
trng t do.
Moi noi dung phan tch tren eu co y ngha oi vi viec hnh thanh chien
lc kinh doanh lau dai, on nh hoac xac nh cac giai phap trc mat cua
doanh nghiep.
Ket qua phan tch la c s cho cac quyet nh quan tr ve: c cau san pham,
chien lc tiep th, chat lng hang hoa, gia ca canh tranh, trong tng giai oan
kinh doanh hoac trong chien lc dai han.
Phng phap phan tch da vao cac phng phap a nghien cu chung 1.
Tuy thuoc vao yeu cau va oi tng phan tch, s dung cac phng phap ky
thuat tng thch.
V du: Can c vao v du tren, phan tch tnh hnh hoan thanh ke hoach mat
hang chu yeu (hoac theo nhom hang) ve mat tieu thu:
Nguyen tac phan tch ch tieu nhom hang, mat hang chu yeu la: khong c
bu tr lan nhau gia phan vt ke hoach cua mat hang nay vi mat hang kia.
Y ngha cua viec phan tch nh vay nham bao am tnh hnh thc hien cho
tng hp ong (ca 2 trng hp: cung ng va tieu thu), gi c uy tn doanh
nghiep, s on nh lau dai oi vi cac khach hang truyen thong va cac nha cung
ng tin cay.



78

Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach mat hang chu yeu (ve mat tieu thu):
(840x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(180x0,666) 1.123,88
=
(920x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(180x0,666)
x 100% =
1.171,88
x 100% = 95,90%
So sanh vi ty le hoan thanh ke hoach chung (ve mat tieu thu):
(840x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(200x0,666) 1.199,50
=
(920x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(180x0,666)
x 100% =
1.171,88
x 100% = 102,36%
Nhan xet:
Mac du ty le hoan thanh ke hoach tieu thu: 102,36% tuy nhien ty le hoan
thanh ke hoach mat hang chu yeu ch at 95,95%.
Can c vao cach tnh toan tren, ta thay rang: ch can co mot mat hang (hoac
mot nhom hang) khong at ke hoach tieu thu se lam cho ty le hoan thanh ke
hoach mat hang chu yeu khong at ke hoach. ay la y ngha chu yeu cua noi
dung phan tch nay.
Phe phan cach tnh phiem dien, ch at nang ve doanh so ban hoac kim
ngach xuat khau mac du chung la c s khong the thieu trong khi tien hanh
xem xet nhieu ch tieu phan tch khac.

3.2. NGUYEN NHAN ANH HNG EN TNH HNH TIEU THU
Co 2 loai nguyen nhan chnh:
Nguyen nhan chu quan (thuoc ve doanh nghiep)
Tnh hnh cung cap (au vao);
Chat lng, chung loai, c cau hang hoa;
Phng thc ban hang, chien lc tiep th;
To chc va ky thuat thng mai.
Nguyen nhan khach quan (thuoc ve ben ngoai hay con goi la moi
trng kinh doanh)


79

Chnh sach v mo cua chnh phu nham on nh hoa nh: chnh sach
tien te, chnh sach tai khoa, chnh sach ve ty gia hoi oai;
Tnh hnh xa hoi: c cau nen kinh te, thu nhap, mc song, tap quan,
le hoi, mua vu;
Tnh hnh the gii, khu vc: cac khuynh hng thng mai, xu the
hoi nhap, khu vc hoa va toan cau hoa,
Nhng nguyen nhan bat thng va nh tnh ve ban chat khac.
Trong khi phan tch nhng nhan to anh hng en tnh hnh tieu thu, han
nhien co mot so van e rat kho hoac khong the can o c. Tuy vay, e ket
qua phan tch co gia tr, cac nhan to can c co gang nh lng trong kha nang
co the. Chnh thong tin c lng hoa o mi ung ngha la he thong thong tin
hu ch cua ke toan c s cua cac quyet nh quan tr. Va ch co ieu nay mi
lam cho phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh nen thuyet phuc va se la mot hoat ong
thng xuyen c quan tam tai cac doanh nghiep.
Trong qua trnh phan tch, ngoai cac phng phap ky thuat a trnh bay, ac
biet la phng phap hoi quy rat hu dung, ngi ta con van dung nhieu kien
thc ve ly thuyet kinh te va nhng thuat toan phc tap khac, tr giup cho cong
tac phan tch.
3.2.1. Nguyen nhan chu quan
a. Tnh hnh cung cap (thu mua)
Tnh hnh tieu thu, trc het le thuoc vao tnh hnh cung cap (au vao).
Cong thc chung dung e so sanh:
Khoi lng hang hoa mua thc te
Khoi lng hang hoa mua ke hoach
x 100%
Phan tch nguyen nhan:
Von, tien mat;


80

Th trng cung ng;
Nang lc van chuyen, bao quan, kho bai;
To chc, ky thuat tac nghiep.
b. Tnh hnh d tr hang hoa
Phan tch tnh hnh ton kho:
Hang ton kho phai bao am khong e tnh trang thieu hut, khong u khoi
lng, lam mat khach hang va c hoi kinh doanh. Tuy nhien ton kho qua ln lam
ong von (tang chi ph s dung von) va tang chi ph bao quan hang ton kho,
gay anh hng en hieu qua chung. Ton kho phai luon kp thi va va u (ch
khong phai ay u). V vay, doanh nghiep can co ben canh cac nha cung cap uy
tn va bang cac hp ong lau dai, on nh. Tat nhien, ieu nay khong n gian
ac biet trong nen kinh te th trng, luon chu nhieu bien ong bat nh.
e am bao nguon cung cap va gia ca hang hoa, nguyen vat lieu, mot so
cac doanh nghiep ac biet la cac doanh nghiep san xuat che bien hang xuat
khau thng co nhng ke hoach gn gi nguon hang thong qua viec au t, ng
trc cho cac nha cung cap hoac trc tiep to chc san xuat va xuat khau.
He hong ton kho kp thi JIT: Just in time ma ngi Nhat s dung rat
hanh cong, co the c tom tat rang: cung ng phai ung luc va ung khoi lng
can thiet e chi ph hang ton kho thap nhat va tien en bang khong. Nhng s
dung chung e at hieu qua la ca mot nghe thuat va khong phai la ieu de dang.
Phan tch luan chuyen hang hoa:
So vong luan chuyen hang hoa (so vong quay kho);
Ky luan chuyen (so ngay cho 1 vong).
(Phan tch cu the trong chng Phan tch tai chnh)
c. Gia ban


81

Gia ca la nhan to anh hng khong t en khoi lng hang hoa tieu thu, anh
hng en li nhuan cua doanh nghiep. Neu doanh nghiep nh mc gia ban qua
cao se lam cho khoi lng tieu thu b giam sut.
Khi gia ban tang th khoi lng tieu thu se giam xuong. Tuy nhien, mc o
tang hoac giam cua san pham tieu thu con phu thuoc vao mc ap ng nhu cau
tieu dung cua tng loai hang hoa, nhng san pham thiet yeu cho tieu dung nh
lng thc thc pham, th khoi lng tieu thu t phu thuoc vao gia ca. Ngc lai,
nhng san pham cao cap, xa x, khoi lng san pham tieu thu se giam neu gia ca
tang len.
V vay, x nghiep can quyet nh khoi lng san pham tieu thu va gia ca
nh the nao cho that hp ly nham mang lai hieu qua kinh te cao nhat.
Nguyen nhan gia ca tang cu the la do:
Do tnh chat oc quyen oi vi san pham nay.
Quan ly kem trong khau san xuat hay khau quan ly gia thanh a lam
cho gia thanh n v tang gay bat li.
Do chat lng chat san pham uc cai thien, doanh nghiep tieu ton
nhieu nguyen vat lieu cung nh cong sc lao ong vao o, ay gia
thanh n v san xuat tang ong ngha phai tang gia ban ra
d. Chat lng hang hoa
Viec tieu thu san pham chu anh hng rat nhieu en chat lng san pham
qua viec chat lng san pham kem hn vi cac loai san pham khac cung loai
tren th trng, khi phan tch chat lng san pham can chu y :
Nhu cau xa hoi ngay cang tang, oi hoi lng hang hoa ngay cang
cao neu va gia ca on nh hp ly, khong ap ng c nhu cau th
hang hoa khong ban c gay ong von.


82

Nhu cau oi hoi trong quan ly san xuat, neu hao ph qua ln, gia
thanh cao th hang hoa se kho tieu thu c, do o phai giai quyet
hai hoa gia van e chat lng, chi ph nham am bao cho hang hoa
tieu thu c.
Nang cao uy tn san pham doanh nghiep la nhan to quan trong cho cac nha
kinh doanh va anh hng en khoi lng tieu thu. X nghiep ch co the nang cao
uy tn cho san pham khi am bao chat lng san pham on nh, gia ca tng oi
on nh, luon co u hang cung ng cho th trng va cac dch vu mua ban tot. Uy
tn la nhan to quyet nh ay manh hang hoa tieu thu co chat lng cao.
e. Phng thc tieu thu va phng thc thanh toan
Phng thc tieu thu: Phng thc tieu thu cung anh hng rat ln en
viec tieu thu san pham hang hoa nh : ban trc tiep hoac ban qua cac to chc
trung gian, ban s va le Doanh nghiep phai ap dung linh ong cac phng thc
va phai quan tam nhieu en cong tac cham soc khach hang. (kenh phan phoi san
pham)
Phng thc thanh toan: Phng thc thanh toan cung anh hng en viec
tieu thu nh : ban thu tien mat, ban tra gop, ban theo phng thc chuyen tien
(T/T), nh thu (D/P) hay th tn dung (L/C). Viec ap dung phng thc nao con
tuy thuoc vao tnh hnh tai chnh hien tai cua doanh nghiep.
3.2.2. Nguyen nhan khach quan
a. Nguyen nhan thuoc chnh sach nha nc
Mc o anh hng en doanh thu t chnh sach thue, cac chnh sach kinh te
cua chnh phu va tnh hnh giao thng quoc te;
Mc o tac ong cua ty gia hoi oai va th trng tai chnh, tien te;
Tac ong cua khung hoang kinh te va canh tranh;
Chnh sach bao ho vi cac chien lc thng mai va cong nghiep hoa.


83

b. Nguyen nhan thuoc ve xa hoi
Phan tch nhu cau, thu nhap, thay oi tap quan tieu dung.
Trong o, nhu cau tieu dung la mot ham so cua thu nhap va co moi quan he
thuan bien vi thu nhap. Tong quat:
Thu nhap tang nhu cau tieu dung tang;
Thu nhap giam nhu cau tieu dung giam.
Tuy thuoc va nhu cau toi thieu hay cao cap ma chung se co nhng ng x
khac nhau trc s thay oi cua thu nhap.
Nhu cau thiet yeu: Tieu dung cho nhu cau thiet yeu tang nhanh khi thu
nhap tang va co mc bao hoa. V du: lng thc, thc pham, cong nghe pham
tieu dung,








o th 3.1. Xu hng nhu cau thiet yeu
Nhu cau trung lu: Khi thu nhap tang, tieu dung cho nhu cau trung lu tang
cham sau o tang nhanh va co mc bao hoa. V du: may mac, nha , trang thiet
b sinh hoat, phng tien i lai ca nhan, mot so nhu cau tinh than.



0
Thu nhap
Nhu
cau toi
thieu


84








o th 3.2. Xu hng nhu cau trung lu
Nhu cau cao cap: Khi thu nhap tang, nhu cau cao cap tang cham, sau o
tang nhanh va khong gii han. V du: nha cao cap, phng tien ca nhan sang
trong, giai tr, du lch nc ngoai, thng ngoan, nghe thuat, ton giao, thi trang,
tham hiem cung trang, sao hoa,







o th 3.3. Xu hng nhu cau cao cap
c. Phan tch o co gian cua cau
Khai niem: o co gian noi chung (Elastic) la mot khai niem c s dung
trong rat nhieu moi quan he kinh te khac nhau, dung e o mc o nhay cam
cua mot bien phu thuoc oi vi mot bien oc lap.

0
Thu nhap
Nhu
cau toi
thieu
0
Thu nhap
Nhu
cau toi
thieu


85

o co gian la ty le so sanh gia s thay oi cua bien ket qua va cua bien
kia la tac nhan. Qua o, o co gian ch ra rang c 1 phan tram thay oi trong
bien oc lap (nguyen nhan) se lam thay oi bao nhieu phan tram trong bien phu
thuoc (oi tng phan tch).
V du:
o co gian cua cau mot loai hang hoa dch vu so vi gia cua chnh
hang hoa dch vu o;
o co gian cua cau so vi gia hang hoa thay the hay so vi gia hang
hoa bo sung;
o co gian cua cau so vi thu nhap (hay thu nhap kha dung);
o co gian cua khoi lng hang tieu thu so vi chi ph quang cao,
tiep th;
o co gian cua au t hay cua tiet kiem so vi thu nhap
Cong thc tnh o co gian cua cau so vi gia: La ty le gia thay oi cua
lng cau so vi thay oi cua gia (chnh xac hn la ty le cua phan tram thay oi
cua lng cau so vi phan tram thay oi cua gia. Cong thc di ay a c
viet theo loi n gian).
D
Q
P Q Q
E
P
Q P
P

= =

Trong o: E
D
la o co gian cua cau;
Q = Q
1
Q
0
la s thay oi cua lng cau;
P = P
1
P
0
la s thay oi cua gia.
V du: co so lieu ve mot loai hang hoa nh sau:
Khoi lng tieu thu: 100 n v tai gia ban: 50;
Khoi lng tieu thu: 120 n v tai gia ban: 40.
(3.1)


86

o co gian cua cau so vi gia cua loai hang hoa nay se la:
( )
( )
120 100
0, 2
100
1
40 50 0, 2
50
D E

= = =

ac iem cua o co gian cua cau so vi gia:
Khong co n v tnh;
Luon nho hn 0 (E
D
<0)
Khao sat tren o th:









o th 3.4. o co gian cua cau so vi gia
P
tg
Q

: o doc cua ng cau (D)

o doc quyet nh dang dap cua ng cau tuyen tnh (the ng hay nam);
trong khi o, o co gian o lng s nhay cam cua cau (bien ket qua) trc s
thay oi cua gia (bien oc lap). V vay, o co gian khong nhng phu thuoc vao
o doc cua ng cau ma con phu thuoc vao ty so gia gia ca va lng cau
(P/Q).
Cong thc lien he gia o co gian va o doc:
Q
P
P
0

P
1

Q
0
Q
1


0
Q
P
(D)


87

1 1
D
Q P P P
E
P
P Q Q tg Q
Q

= = =

Da vao cong thc (3.2) va o th (3.4) ta thay rang: o co gian ty le nghch
vi gia tr o doc.
Mot so trng hp minh hoa ve quan he gia o doc va o co gian cua
ng cau:









o th 3.5. ng cau t co gian. Mot s thay oi trong gia ( P) lam thay
oi t hn trong lng cau ( Q)










o th 3.6. ng cau co gian nhieu. Mot s thay oi trong gia ( P) lam
thay oi nhieu hn trong lng cau ( Q).
(3.2)
(D)
Q
P
P
0

P
1

Q
0
Q
1


0
Q
P
( )

<

<
P
o doc tg = 1
Q
P Q

P
(D)
P
0

P
1

Q
0
Q
1


0
Q
P
( )

>

>
P
o doc tg = 1
Q
P Q



88

Q
P
P
0

P
1

Q
0
Q
1

45

0
Q
P
(D)
( )

=
P
o doc tg = 1
Q
P Q









o th 3.7. ng cau co gian hoan toan. Mot s thay oi nho trong gia
( P) lam thay oi rat ln (vo tan) lng cau ( Q).









o th 3.8. ng cau hoan toan khong co gian. Mot s thay oi du the nao
trong gia ( P) cung khong lam thay oi lng cau ( Q).










o th 3.9. ng cau co gian mot n v. Mot s thay oi trong gia ( P)
lam thay oi tng ng lng cau ( Q).
0
(D)
P
0

Q
P
( )
0
0 P

=
P
o doc tg =
Q

(D)
P
0

Q
P
( ) 0 Q

=
P
o doc tg =
Q

Q
0



89

o co gian va doanh thu: Tuy thuoc vao o co gian cua cau so vi gia, s
anh hng en doanh thu t s thay oi cua gia se khac nhau.
V du: Khao sat cac so lieu n gian sau ay:
Gia (P)
Lng
(Q
D
)
Doanh
Thu (R)
o co
gian (E
D
)
10 0 0
9 5 45 -9
8 10 80 -4
7 15 105 -2,333
6 20 120 -1,5
5 25 125 -1
4 30 120 -0.666
3 35 105 -0,428
2 40 80 -0,25
1 45 45 -0,111
0 50 0
Bang 3.4. Quan he gia doanh thu va o co gian

3.3. D BAO LNG TIEU THU VI PHNG PHAP HOI QUY A BIEN
3.3.1. Khai quat
Khoi lng tieu thu chu anh hng bi rat nhieu nhan to. o co the la: gia
ca cua chnh hang hoa va dch vu (chnh gia), chi ph quang cao, gia ban cung
mat hang cua oi thu canh tranh; gia hang co tnh thay the va gia ca hang hoa
bo sung; la to chc ky thuat thng mai va phng thc tieu thu; la thu nhap
bnh quan au ngi, chnh sach bao ho mau dch cua chnh phu hay cac hiep
nh thng mai song phng va a phng; la s thay oi thi trang, th hieu,
Tr tuyet oi cua o co
gian ln hn 1
( )
1 D E >
giam gia, doanh thu tang
( )
1 D E = , doanh thu cc ai
Tr tuyet oi cua o co
gian nho hn 1
( )
1 D E <
giam gia, doanh thu giam


90

tap quan, ton giao, gii tnh, le hoi, mua vu hay la nang ma thi tiet, cung
nhieu yeu to rat kho nh lng khac ma cho du ve mat ly thuyet i chang na
cung khong the nao nhan thc, giai thch, suy oan, c oan hay d bao het
c.
Trong pham vi muc nay, e n gian, khoi lng tieu thu c xet gii han
trong moi quan he ch vi 2 nhan to: gia ban (X
1
) va chi ph quang cao (X
2
).
Gia nh gia tr quan sat cua cac bien co la co nh (khong ngau nhien) va
gia cac bien oc lap (X
1
, X
2
) khong co quan he tuyen tnh tuyet oi tc khong
co hien tng cong tuyen hoan toan (a cong tuyen). Tc la, neu ca hai bien oc
lap cung xuat hien va neu gia chung co moi quan he a cong tuyen, mo hnh
d bao khi ay se tr nen khong the thc hien, khong the dung no e giai thch
hay phan tch d bao c.
Ve mat ly thuyet, khoi lng tieu thu co quan he nghch bien vi gia ban
san pham. Va, khoi lng tieu thu co quan he thuan bien vi chi ph quang cao.
Tat nhien quan he nh vay trc het phai hieu la chung a c an nh
san bi cac ly thuyet kinh te. Nhng ly thuyet tuyet nhien khong tra li cu the
c rang: thay oi bao nhieu, thay oi nh the nao? Khoi lng tieu thu thay
oi bao nhieu phan tram t 1% thay oi trong gia ban, hay trong chi ph quang
cao? Phan tch nh lng vi phng phap hoi quy la nham i tm cau tra li, e
giai thch va e cung co, ho tr ngc lai cho ly thuyet.
3.3.2. nh dang phng trnh the hien moi quan he
Phng trnh (mo hnh) hoi quy di dang tuyen tnh:
Y = b
0
+ b
1
X
1
+ b
2
X
2
+ e
Trong o:
Y: Khoi lng tieu thu
X
1
: Gia ban san pham


91

X
2
: Chi ph quang cao
b
0
: so hang co nh tung o goc
b
1
: mc tac ong en khoi lng khi gia ban thay oi 1 n v;
b
2
: mc tac ong en khoi lng khi quang cao thay oi 1 n v;
e: Sai so, the hien mc tac ong cua cac yeu to khac khong the biet hoac
khong c a vao mo hnh
Trong thc te, co nhieu phng phap khac nhau e tien hanh xac lap mo
hnh hoi quy a bien. Co 2 phng phap c s dung pho bien nhat la phng
phap t tren xuong (top down) va phng phap t di len (bottom up).
Vi phng phap top down, trc tien xay dng mo hnh bao gom tat ca
cac bien giai thch (bien oc lap) c tien oan la co tac ong en bien ket qua
(bien phu thuoc). Tiep theo o, qua kiem nh va chuan oan se loai bo bt cac
bien khong co tac ong hoac co tac ong yeu en mo hnh cho en khi at c
mot mo hnh tot e co the s dung giai thch va d bao.
Vi phng phap bottom up, viec xay dng mo hnh i t n gian en
phc tap, t n bien en a bien cho en khi mo hnh con co the at tot hn sau
moi lan them vao mot bien giai thch.
3.3.3. Thu thap d lieu va tnh toan nhng gia tr thong ke ac trng
a. Thu thap d lieu
e phan tch co y ngha, d lieu cua cac bien so trong trng hp nay phai
co cung ky phat sinh, tc cung mot thi iem (d lieu cheo) va khong chu s tac
ong khach quan ot bien gia cac ky thuoc pham vi va oi tng nghien cu
hoi quy.
Mot tap d lieu co nhieu iem nam ngoai (outliers) tc nhng ngoai le
qua xa vi quy luat thong thng, ve mat nghien cu thong ke hoi quy dung e
d bao la khong tot cho mo hnh.


92

iem nam ngoai se lam thay oi khong nho en o doc cua phng trnh
do tac ong nu keo cua chung. Cac n gian nhat la loai bo chung e mo
hnh tot hn. Lap 2 mo hnh: mot vi iem nam ngoai va mot th khong.
Tat nhien chung ta khong phai bao gi cung bo qua cac iem nam ngoai
mot cach phu nhan vo tnh ma khong tien hanh cac phan tch rieng oi vi
chung. V oi khi, tuy vao muc ch nghien cu, chnh cac iem nam ngoai lai
giai thch c nhieu ieu quan trong va thu v.
V du: co so ieu quan sat ve tnh hnh thc hien khoi lng hang ban, n
gia ban va chi ph quang cao c thu thap tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau:
Khoi lng hang ban
(san pham)
Gia ban
(1.000 ong)
Chi ph quang cao
(1.000 ong) Ky (thang)
Y X
1
X
2

01/2005 3011 51 3361
02/2005 4875 47 4533
03/2005 4220 54 4401
04/2005 2542 59 3323
05/2005 2967 59 3515
06/2005 3194 62 3837
07/2005 4340 42 4179
08/2005 3082 52 3535
09/2005 3449 58 3910
10/2005 3120 48 3202
11/2005 3616 50 3795
12/2004 3494 45 3722
01/2006 4129 44 4108
02/2006 3326 48 3594
03/2006 3742 49 3885
04/2006 4627 42 4428
05/2006 3700 50 3905
Bang 3.5. Tap d lieu ve khoi lng tieu thu, gia ban, chi ph quang cao


93

b. Tnh cac gia tr thong ke ac trng
Cac gia tr thong ke ac trng la c s au tien e xem xet khai quat, mo ta
ve tap d lieu. Bao gom: gia tr trung bnh, sai so chuan, gia tr cc ai, gia tr
cc tieu, trung v, yeu v, o nghieng (thien lech), o chop (o nhat quan),
khoang (mien), phng sai, o lech chuan, so lan quan sat.
Ap dung Microsoft Excel tnh trc tiep cac gia tr thong ke ac trng nay,
chung ta s dung cu the chng trnh thong ke mo ta (Descriptive Statistics).
S dung lenh:
Trong Excel, sau khi chon vung d lieu can thong ke, ta chon: Tools/ Data
Analysis/ Descriptive Statistics/ O.K/ Summary Statistics/O.K
Ket qua thu thap c nh sau:
KHOAN MUC Y X
1
X
2
Giai thch
Mean 3613,76 50,59 3837,24 Gia tr trung bnh
Standard Error 155,29 1,48 96,20 Sai so chuan
Median 3494,00 50,00 3837,00 Trung v
Mode #N/A 59,00 #N/A Yeu v
Standard Deviation 640,27 6,08 396,66 o lech chuan
Sample Variance 409940,07 37,01 157336,07 Phng sai (mau)
Kurtosis -0,47 -0,72 -0,78 o chop
Skewness 0,46 0,41 0,23 o nghieng
Range 2333,00 20,00 1331,00 Khoang (mien)
Minimum 2542,00 42,00 3202,00 Gia tr toi thieu
Maximum 4875,00 62,00 4533,00 Gia tr toi a
Sum 61434,00 860,00 65233,00 Tong cong gia tr
Count 17 17 17 So quan sat
Bang 3.6. Cac ai lng thong ke ac trng



94

3.3.4. Thc hien hoi quy
Thng hay goi la chay hoi quy (t khi co may tnh va cac chng trnh
phan mem tr giup), bc nay cung cap cho ta nhng gia tr cua cac thong so
can tm e thiet lap phng trnh hoi quy va s dung e d bao: gia tr tung o
goc (intercept), cac gia tr o doc (slope). Ngoai ra, cung chng trnh nay se
cung cap nhng gia tr thong ke hoi quy khac dung e kiem nh chat lng mo
hnh.
Co bao nhieu bien oc lap (bien giai thch), chng trnh se cho ra bay
nhieu thong so o doc.
Lu y rang thong so tung o goc trong mo hnh hoi quy a bien thng
khong co y ngha hoac co y ngha rat t e giai thch ve ban chat kinh te. Trong
qua trnh hoi quy, no chu cung luc cac tac ong trai ngc nhau cua cac bien so
oc lap.
Dung chng trnh Regression co trong Microsoft Excel e thc hien hoi
quy a bien:













95

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Cac tho ng so tho ng ke
ho i quy

Multiple R 0.99 Mc o tng quan
R Square 0.97 R bnh phng (he so xac nh)
Adjusted R Square 0.97 R bnh phng ieu chnh
Standard Error 112.86 Sai so chuan
Observations 17 So quan sat

ANOVA (Analysis on variance: Phan tch phng sai)
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 6380728.97 3190364.49 250.49 0.00
Residual 14 178312.09 12736.58
Total 16 6559041.06

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 343.09 457.12 0.75 0.47 -637.34 1323.51
X Variable 1 -34.79 5.01 -6.94 0.00 -45.54 -24.04
X Variable 2 1.31 0.08 17.05 0.00 1.15 1.48
Bang 3.7. Bang ket qua hoi quy a bien c tnh bi Microsoft Excel
Ngoai viec dung chng trnh Regression co trong Microsoft Excel e tnh
hoi quy a boi, con co nhieu chng trnh phan mem khac co cac tnh nang
tng t va tham ch con co nhieu chc nang hn na. Chang han nh chung ta
co the dung phan mem Eviews 5.1 e thong ke va d bao so lieu mot cach rat
de dang.
V du: vi so lieu cho Bang 3.5, chung ta s dung phan mem Eviews 5.1
e thc hien hoi quy, cac bc thc hien nh sau:
Bc 1: Khi ong chng trnh Eviews 5.1 va tao ca so mi:
File/ New/ Workfile trong hop Workfile Structure type, chon
Unstructured/Undated, sau o nhap vao hop Observations (so quan sat): 17


96


Hnh 3.1. Giao dien va nhap lieu ban au cua phan mem Eviews 5.1
Bc 2: Tien hanh nhap so lieu ban au vao chng trnh phan mem nay,
chon Quick/ Empty Group (Edit Series), tao 3 bien nhap lieu gom Y, X
1
, X
2

tng ng vi 3 cot d lieu. Sau o nhap so gom 17 quan sat cho 3 bien nay,
hnh anh minh hoa nh sau:

Hnh 3.2. Nhap lieu so lieu gom 17 quan sat cho 3 bien Y, X
1
, X
2



97

Bc 3: Thc hien hoi quy cho bien Y theo hai bien con lai la bien X
1
va
X
2
, bang cach chon: Quick/ Estimate Equation sau o nhap vao lenh: Y C X
1

X
2
, nhan enter ta c bang ket qua hoi quy, minh hoa bang hnh anh sau:

Hnh 3.3. Nhap lech hoi quy bien Y theo bien X
1
va X
2

Hnh 3.4. Bang ket qua hoi quy tnh c


98

a. Kiem nh cac ly thuyet
Cac thong so cua phng trnh va o tng quan cho bi bang ket qua hoi
quy tren:
R
2
= 0,99 the hien mc o tng quan cao gia cac bien oc lap va bien ket
qua;
R
2
= 0,97: he so xac n, the hien mc o cao ve kha nang giai thch cua
cac bien oc lap en bien ket qua;
Thong so o doc cua bien gia ca: X variable 1 = -34,79 <0, the hien phu
hp vi ly thuyet ve quan he nghch bien vi bien phan tch: khoi lng tieu thu;
Thong so o doc cua bien chi ph quang cao: X variable 2 = 1,31 > 0, phu
hp vi ly thuyet ve quan he thuan bien vi bien phan tch: khoi lng tieu thu.
b. Kiem nh mo hnh hoi quy
V sao phai kiem nh mo hnh hoi quy? Nhng ket qua hoi quy cho thay co
s phu hp vi ly thuyet ve quan he gia cac bien giai thch (X) va bien ket qua
(Y). Tuy nhien, ket qua hoi quy tren c cho bi mot mo hnh c gia thiet luc
ban au. e xem xet y ngha va gia tr cua mo hnh ta phai s dung nhng kiem
nh thong ke ma gii han ay la kiem nh thong ke t (t-stat)
Kiem nh mo hnh hoi quy trong pham vi gii han ay ch tien hanh xem
xet cac gia thiet ve moi quan he tuyen tnh gia cac bien oc lap vi bien phu
thuoc. Chung chu yeu lien quan ti o doc cua cac ng hoi quy hay lien quan
ti phng sai hoac tch sai cua cac phan phoi xac suat.
Trong thc te, thng s dung kiem nh t-stat e kiem nh cho thong so
o doc (hn la cho thong so tung o goc). Kiem nh ve o doc nham xac nh
co hay khong moi quan he gia bien oc lap va bien phu thuoc mot o tin cay
nhat nh.



99

Theo mot nguyen tac khong c chng minh, neu t-value (gia tr tuyet oi
cua t) cua cac bien oc lap ln hn 2 (hoac >1,96) ta co the ket luan la co moi
quan he ve mat thong ke hay noi cach khac la co y ngha ve mat thong ke
mc y ngha 5%. Nhng so quan sat n phai u ln th o chnh xac cang cao.
Lu y rang, tieu chuan kiem nh gia tr thong ke se tuy thuoc vao o tin
cay. Vi o tin cay cao hn hoac thap hn, luc o yeu cau gia tr t-stat cung se
cao hn hay thap hn tng ng.
Theo ket qua mo hnh hoi quy cho Bang 3.7, ta co:
6, 94 t stat = oi vi bien oc lap X
1
(gia ban)
0 t stat < , the hien quan he nghch bien gia bien oc lap va bien ket qua.
17, 05 t stat = oi vi bien oc lap X
2
(chi ph quang cao)
0 t stat > , the hien quan he thuan bien gia bien oc lap va bien ket qua.
3.3.5. D bao vi mo hnh hoi quy
Theo ket qua hoi quy (Bang 3.7), ta co phng trnh hoi quy, bieu dien moi
quan he gia bien ket qua va bien giai thch la:
Y = 343,09 34,79X
1
+ 1,31X
2

Giai thch cac thong so:
Gia tr thong so b
1
= -34,79, ch ra o doc cua ng hoi quy oi vi bien
X
1
, mang y ngha la: trong khoang gia tr X
1
(gia ban) t 42 (min) en 62 (max)
khi X
1
thay oi tang 1 n v th Y (khoi lng tieu thu) se giam i c lng
mot cach trung bnh vao khoang 34,79 n v, vi X
2
khong oi.
Gia tr thong so b
2
= 1,31 ch ra o doc cua ng hoi quy oi vi bien X
2
,
mang y ngha la: trong khoang gia tr X
2
(chi ph quang cao) t: 3202 (min) en
4533 (max) khi X
2
thay oi tang 1 n v th Y (khoi lng tieu thu) se tang len
c lng mot cach trung bnh vao khoang 1,31 n v, vi X
1
khong oi.


100

Gia tr thong so b
0
= 343,09 ch ra tung o goc cua ng hoi quy, mang y
ngha la khoi lng tieu thu toi thieu khi ma X
1
va X
2
eu bang 0. Nhng cach
giai thch nh vay la may moc va ap at; hn na, khong co gia X
1
, X
2
nao trong
tap d lieu tren ay bang 0 nh vay ca. Mac du theo v du nay, khoi lng tieu
thu toi thieu co the c hieu theo kieu duy oan (guess wildly) la c tieu thu
bang cach trao oi hang trc tiep hoac theo cach phi thng mai khac.
Cac chnh sach co the ng dung t phng trnh hoi quy:
Muon tang mc tieu thu mot lng nhat nh th can phai tang cng bao
nhieu chi ph quang cao hay can phai ha gia ban en mc nao?
Bang cach tang cng quang cao hay ha gia ban mot mc nhat nh nao
o th khoi lng tieu thu d bao se tang len bao nhieu?
Vi chnh sach nao: tang quang cao hay ha gia ban, se ay nhanh hn toc
o tang trng khoi lng tieu thu?














101

CHUONG q
PHAN TCH LOI NHUA N

4.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN LI NHUAN
4.1.1. Muc tieu cua doanh nghiep
Bat ky mot to chc nao cung co muc tieu e hng ti; muc tieu se khac
nhau gia cac to chc mang tnh chat khac nhau. Muc tieu cua nhng to chc phi
li nhuan (Nonbusiness organizations) la nhng cong tac hanh chnh, xa hoi, la
muc ch nhan ao khong mang tnh chat kinh doanh.
Muc tieu cua doanh nghiep trong nen kinh te th trng noi en cung la
li nhuan. Moi hoat ong cua doanh nghiep e xoay quanh muc tieu li nhuan,
hng en li nhuan va tat ca v li nhuan.
4.1.2. Y ngha cua li nhuan
Theo ly thuyet kinh te, li nhuan trong san xuat kinh doanh quyet nh qua
trnh tai san xuat m rong xa hoi. Li nhuan c bo sung vao khoi lng t ban
cho chu ky san xuat sau, cao hn trc. Y ngha xa hoi: m rong phat trien san
xuat, tao cong an viec lam, tang thu nhap va tieu dung xa hoi, ay manh toc o
tang trng kinh te.
oi vi doanh nghiep: Li nhuan quyet nh s ton vong, khang nh kha
nang canh tranh, ban lnh doanh nghiep trong mot nen kinh te ma von d ay bat
trac va khac nghiet. V vay, tao ra li nhuan la chc nang duy nhat cua doanh
nghiep.
4.1.3. Ch tieu thc hien
Tong li nhuan:
Dung phng phap so sanh TH/KH.


102

So tng oi:
L i nhuan th c hien
100%
Li nhua n ke hoach
(4.1)
So tuyet oi: Li nhuan TH Li nhuan KH
Li nhuan bnh quan (suat li nhuan)
Li nhuan bnh quan at c tren moi n v san pham tuy thuoc vao khoi
lng san pham tieu thu do anh hng cua c cau chi ph. Trong thc te, ch tieu
nay t c s dung do tnh ac trng khong cao.
4.1.4. Ch tieu quan he
Ty le li nhuan so sanh vi doanh thu (ty suat li nhuan):
100%
L i nhua n
Ty suat li nhua n =
Doanh thu
(4.2)
Y ngha: mc li nhuan tren 1 ong doanh thu;
Ch tieu ty suat li nhuan con la mot ch tieu e xem xet mc trch lap quy
khen thng, phuc li oi vi doanh nghiep nha nc khi duyet quyet toan tai
chnh hang nam cua doanh nghiep.
Ty le li nhuan so vi von:
Cong thc tong quat:
L i nhua n
Ty suat l i nhua n so v i vo n = 100%
Vo n
(4.3)
Y ngha: mc li nhuan at uc tren 1 ong von.

4.2. LI NHUAN TRONG MOI QUAN HE VI DOANH THU VA CHI PH
Ta co ang thc tong quat:
Li nhuan = Doanh thu Chi ph
Trong o:
Doanh thu = Khoi lng x n gia ban
Chi ph gom:


103


o Chi ph kha bien
o Chi ph bat bien
Phan tch li nhuan trong moi quan he vi doanh thu va chi ph khong ch
giup doanh nghiep anh gia tong quat qua trnh kinh doanh, ket qua kinh doanh
va cac nhan to a anh hng en tnh hnh thc hien li nhuan ma con la phng
phap phan tch da tren nhng d lieu mang tnh d bao, phuc vu cho cac quyet
nh quan tr trong lnh vc ieu hanh hien tai va hoach nh ke hoach tng lai.
V du:
Co tai lieu tai mot doanh nghiep sau:
Tien thue nha: 2.500.000
Thue may moc, thiet b: 3.000.000
Khau hao tai san co nh: 4.000.000
Chi ph quang cao: 5.000.000
Lng quan ly (thi gian): 3.000.000
Lng ban hang (san pham): 4.000.000
Gia von hang ban: 20.000.000
Chi ph van chuyen ban hang: 2.000.000
Chi ph bao b ong goi: 4.000.000
Trong ky, doanh nghiep tieu thu c 10.000 san pham; gia ban: 5.000
ong cho mot san pham. Chi ph kha bien n v: 3.000/san pham.







104


Phan tch chung:
Khoan muc Tong so n v Ty trong
Doanh thu (10.000 sp) 50.000.000 5.000 100%
Chi ph kha bien, gom: 30.000.000 3.000 60%
Gia von hang ban 20.000.000
Van chuyen 2.000.000
Bao b ong goi 4.000.000
Lng ban hang 4.000.000
Hieu suat gop 20.000.000 2.000 40%
Chi ph bat bien 17.500.000
Li nhuan 2.500.000
Bang 4.1. Bao cao thu nhap theo hieu so gop
4.2.1. Yeu to khoi lng san pham
Vi gia ban khong oi, khoi lng tieu thu tang se lam tang li nhuan.
V du:
Khoi lng tieu thu tang 10%, cac chi ph kha bien tang theo ty le, chi ph
bat bien gia nh khong oi, ta tnh c li nhuan nh sau:
Doanh thu: 10.000sp x 110% x 5.000 = 55.000.000
Chi ph kha bien: 55.000.000 x 60% = 33.000.000
(Hoac chi ph kha bien = 11.000sp x 3.000 = 33.000.000)
Hieu so gop = 22.000.000
Chi ph bat bien = 17.500.000
Li nhuan = 4.500.000
Phan tch:


105

Khoi lng san pham tang 1.000sp (tang 10% so vi ke hoach) a lam cho
li nhuan tang: 2.000.000 (tang 80% so vi ke hoach);
Nhan to khoi lng la nhan to quan trong lam tang li nhuan. Mat khac, v
sao li nhuan lai nhay cam vi khoi lng nh vay? Mot s bien oi nho
cua khoi lng lai co kha nang lam nen bien oi ln trong li nhuan? Gia
chung co moi quan he g khong?
e giai thch ieu o, ngi ta s dung en mot ty le ac trng; o la ty
le gia hieu so gop so vi li nhuan con goi bang khai niem: on bay kinh
doanh hay on bay hoat ong (OL: Operating leverage)
Cong thc:
Hie u so gop
L c on ba y =
Li nhuan
(4.4)
Theo v du tren, ta co:
20.000.000
L c on ba y = 8
2.500.000
=
Y ngha he so lc on bay:
Vi gia ban khong oi, khi doanh thu tang (giam) 1% se lam li
nhuan tang (giam) 8 lan hn, hay noi cach khac: toc o tang (giam
li nhuan cao gap 8 lan so vi toc o tang (giam) doanh thu.
He so lc on bay cang ln, o nhay cam cua li nhuan oi vi
khoi lng cang cao. Tuy nhien, chnh ieu o lai cha ng nhieu
rui ro.
He so lc don bay khong co n v tnh (giong nh o co gian)
4.2.2. Yeu to chi ph bat bien
Doanh nghiep muon tang doanh thu 30% bang cach tang cng quang cao
them : 3.000.000. Gia nh cac yeu to khac khong oi, hay xem xet quyet nh
nay?


106

Ta co:
Doanh thu: 50.000.000 + (50.000.000 x 30%) = 65.000.000
Chi ph kha bien: 13.000 sp x 3.000 = 39.000.000
(hoac chi ph kha bien = 65.000.000 x 60% = 39.000.000)
Hieu so gop: 65.000.000 39.000.000 = 26.000.000
Chi ph bat bien: 17.500.000 + 3.000.000 = 20.500.000
Li nhuan: 26.000.000 20.500.000 = 5.500.000
Nhan xet:
Li nhuan tang them: 5.500.000 2.500.000 = 3.000.000
Quyet nh nen tang cng quang cao.
4.2.3. Yeu to chi ph kha bien
Doanh nghiep muon tang li nhuan bang cach d nh giam chi ph bao b,
ong goi xuong con: 2.000.000 va v vay khoi lng san pham tieu thu d kien
se b giam xuong con 9.500 san pham ma thoi. Vi gia ban va cac chi ph con lai
gia nh khong oi, hay xem xet quyet nh nay.
Doanh thu: 9.500 sp x 5.000 = 47.500.000
Chi ph kha bien: 9.500 sp x 2.800 = 26.600.000
(hoac ty le chi ph kha bien = =
2.800
100% 56%
5.000
;
Hieu so gop: 47.500.000 26.600.000 = 20.900.000
Chi ph bat bien = 17.500.000
Li nhuan: 20.900.000 17.500.000 = 3.400.000
Mc tang li nhuan: 3.400.000 2.500.000 = 900.000
Quyet nh: nen thc hien s thay oi nay.
4.2.4. Yeu to gia ban


107

Doanh nghiep muon tang li nhuan bang cach d nh tang gia ban len
5.200 ong cho mot san pham. Va v vay khoi lng tieu thu d kien ch at
9.000 san pham. Co nen hay khong?

Doanh thu: 9.000 sp x 5.200 = 46.800.000
Chi ph kha bien: 9.000 sp x 3.000 = 27.000.000
(hoac ty le chi ph kha bien = =
3.000
100% 57, 6923%
5.200

Chi ph kha bien = 46.800.000 x 57,6928% = 27.000.000)
Hieu so gop: 46.800.000 27.000.000 = 19.800.000
Chi ph bat bien = 17.500.000
Li nhuan: 19.800.000 17.500.000 = 2.300.000
Mc giam li nhuan: 2.500.000 2.300.000 = 200.000
Quyet nh: khong nen, v li nhuan giam so vi ban au
4.2.5. Yeu to tong hp
e tang doanh so, doanh nghiep d tnh giam gia 400 ong mot san pham
va tang cng quang cao them 8.000.000. Vi bien phap o, doanh nghiep d
kien khoi lng tieu thu se tang them 50%. Hay xem xet quyet nh nay?
Cach th nhat:
Doanh thu: 15.000 sp x 4.600 = 69.000.000
Chi ph kha bien: 15.000 sp x 3.000 = 45.000.000
(hoac ty le chi ph kha bien = =
3.000
100% 65, 21739%
4.600
;
Chi ph kha bien = 69.000.000 x 65,21739% =45.000.000)
Hieu so gop: 69.000.000 45.000.000 = 24.000.000
Chi ph bat bien: 17.500.000 + 8.000.000 = 25.500.000
Li nhuan: 24.000.000 25.500.000 = (1.500.000)


108

Quyet nh: khong nen v phng an tren lam lo 1.500.000, tc la giam li
nhuan: 2.500.000 + 1.500.000 = 4.000.000
Cach th hai:

Gia ban giam 400/san pham, con: 5.000 400 = 4.600/san pham
Hieu so gop n v san pham giam theo, con:
4.600 3.000 = 1.600/san pham
Hay noi cach khac:
Gia ban giam 400 Hieu so gop n v giam tng ng:
2.000 1.600 = 400.
Tong hieu so gop d tnh (theo phng an mi):
10.000 sp x 150% x 1.600 = 2.400.000
Tong hieu so gop hien tai: 10.000 x 2.000 = 20.000.000
Hieu so gop tang: 24.000.000 20.000.000 = 4.000.000
Mc tang chi ph bat bien (do tang quang cao) = 8.000.000
Li nhuan giam: 8.000.000 4.000.000 = 4.000.000

4.3. PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN T HOAT ONG KINH DOANH
4.3.1. Phan tch li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh
Ket qua hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh chnh phan anh ket qua hoat ong
do chc nang kinh doanh chnh em lai, trong tng ky hach toan cua doanh
nghiep, lam c s chu yeu e anh gia, phan tch hieu qua cac mat, cac lnh vc
hoat ong, phan tch nguyen nhan va mc o anh hng cua cac nguyen nhan c
ban en ket qua chung cua doanh nghiep. ong thi la so lieu quan trong e
tnh va kiem tra so thue thu nhap doanh nghiep ma doanh nghiep phai nop va s


109

kiem tra, anh gia cua cac c quan quan ly ve chat lng hoat ong cua doanh
nghiep.
V du ta co so lieu rut ngan bang bao cao ket qua san xuat kinh doanh cua
cong ty co phan BKBH di ay:

n v tnh: trieu ong
Chech lech nam
2005/ nam 2004
% theo
quy mo chung
Ch tieu
Nam
2005
Nam
2004
Mc %
Nam
2005
Nam
2004
1. Doanh thu ban hang va cung cap
dch vu
287.091 245.606 41.485 16,89 100,61 100,66
2. Cac khoan giam tr 1.729 1.600 129 8,06 0,61 0,66
+ Chiet khau thng mai
+ Hang ban tra lai 1.729 1.600 129 8,06 0,61 0,66
3. Doanh thu thuan ve ban hang va
cung cap dch vu
285.362 244.006 41.356 16,95 100,00 100,00
4. Gia von hang ban 216.460 178.906 37.554 20,99 75,85 73,32
5. Li nhuan gop ve ban hang va
cung cap dch vu
68.902 65.100 3.802 5,84 24,15 26,68
6. Doanh thu hoat ong tai chnh 219 141 78 55,32 0,08 0,06
7. Chi ph tai chnh 3.152 3.444 -292 -8,48 1,10 1,41
Trong o: Chi ph lai vay 3.094 3.312 -218 -6,58 1,08 1,36
8. Chi ph ban hang 35.855 37.444 -1.589 -4,24 12,56 15,35
9. Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep 14.267 12.492 1.775 14,21 5,00 5,12
10. Li nhuan thuan t hoat ong
kinh doanh
15.847 11.861 3.986 33,61 5,55 4,86
Bang 4.4. Bang phan tch chung li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh
Phan tch chung:


110

Tong doanh thu so vi tong doanh thu thuan la 100,61% trong nam 2005 va
la 100,66% trong nam 2004 (can c cot theo quy mo chung) chech lech tren
100% cua t le nay the hien cac khoan giam tr so vi doanh thu thuan, vay cac
khoan giam tr cua nam 2005 so vi nam 2004 a co xu hng giam.
Neu i sau xem xet cac khoan giam tr th nam 2005 va nam 2004 chu yeu
la v gia tr hang ban b tra lai. Nh vay ta co the ket luan la chat lng cua san
pham hang hoa cua cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005 so vi nam 2004 a c
nang len, bieu hien thong qua mc giam tr v tra lai hang phan ln co lien quan
en chat lng san pham cong ty.
Tuy nhien, neu chung ta nhn vao ch tieu cac khoan giam tr th nam 2005
co gia tr hang b tra lai nhieu hn, gia tr hang ban b tra lai tang ve se tac ong
khong tot en uy tn va li nhuan cua doanh nghiep. Mac du chat lng san
pham c cai thien (nh phan tch theo quy mo chung), nhng trnh trang b tra
lai hang van con dien ra, ieu o chng to doanh nghiep con phai cai thien
nhieu trong viec nang cao chat lng san pham, quy cach, mau ma san pham,
va ca chnh sach ban hang cua mnh.
Can c vao cot chech lech nam 2005 so vi nam 2004: toc o tang cua
doanh thu thuan la 16,95% tang cham hn toc o tang cua gia von hang ban
20,99%. ieu nay dan en toc o tang cua li nhuan gop nam 2005 so vi nam
2004 kha cham ch co 5,84%. Nhng do doanh thu t hoat ong tai chnh tang
55,32%, chi ph t hoat ong tai chnh giam -8,48% theo hng co li cho doanh
nghiep, cung vi chi ph ban hang co ty trong ln a giam c -4,24% a lam
cho toc o tang cua li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh chnh doanh
nghiep tang en 33,61%.
en ay cho phep ta ket luan la hieu qua kinh doanh cua cong ty BKBH
nam 2005 tot hn nhieu so vi nam 2004. Tuy nhien doanh nghiep can phai


111

kiem soat chat che hn na chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep, chi ph nay co ty trong
kha ln ma tang nhieu trong nam 2005 ieu o cung tac ong lam han che mc
tang li nhuan trong nam 2005.
Tren cot % theo quy mo chung, doanh thu thuan c xac nh la quy mo
chung, la 100%. Nhng muc khac tren bao cao c xac nh theo ket cau
chiem trong quy mo chung o. Cach phan tch bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh
doanh theo quy mo chung la mot cong cu phan tch rat hu ch e cung cap
thong tin co gia tr cao. Neu muon biet trong 100 ong doanh thu thuan thu c
co bao nhieu ong chi ph, li nhuan gop va li nhuan thuan, th qua bang phan
tch chung ta co the thay ngay c la nam 2005 co 75,85 ong va nam 2004 co
73,32 ong gia von hang ban. Li nhuan gop va li nhuan thuan t hoat ong
kinh doanh tuan t theo 2 nam la 24,15 ong va 5,55 ong trong nam 2005 vi
26,68 ong va 4,86 ong trong nam 2004.
Nh vay trong 100 ong doanh thu, chech lech ve li nhuan thuan t hoat
ong kinh doanh cua nam 2005 so vi nam 2004 la +0,69 ong (5,55 4,86).
Neu t le nay khong oi gia 2 nam th c 100 ong doanh thu tang len cua nam
sau so vi nam 2004 doanh nghiep se co them 0,69 ong li nhuan thuan.
Qua nhng ieu phan tch tren ta co the ket luan rang t le theo quy mo
chung lam ro tnh hieu ve tnh hieu qua hay khong hieu qua cua hoat ong
SXKD, do o ay la phng phay c ang gia la mot cong cu tot cua quan ly
doanh nghiep.
4.3.2. Phan tch cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh
Co cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh cua
doanh nghiep nh sau:
Khoi lng tieu thu (Quantity of goods soldky hieu: P
q
)
Ket cau san pham tieu thu (Density of goods sold ky hieu: P
d
)


112

Cac khoan giam tr (Reductional items ky hieu: P
r
)
Gia ban san pham (Price ky hieu: P
p
)
Gia von hang ban (Cost of goods sold ky hieu: P
c
)
Thu nhap t hoat ong tai chnh (Financial income ky hieu: P
f
)
Chi ph hoat ong (Operating cost ky hieu: P
O
)
Trong o:
Nhan to cac khoan giam tr bao gom: Chiet khau thng mai, giam gia
hang ban, hang ban b tra lai, thue GTGT theo phng phap trc tiep, thue tieu
thu ac biet, thue xuat khau.
Nhan to thu nhap t hoat ong tai chnh = doanh thu t hoat ong tai chnh
chi ph t hoat ong tai chnh.
Nhan to ch ph hoat ong = chi ph ban hang + chi ph quan ly doanh
nghiep.
Nh vay cong thc xac nh ch tieu li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh
doanh (ky hieu: P) c viet nh sau:
r f O q d p c P P P P P P P P = + + + + + +
(4.6)
Vi s bien ong cua li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh ( ) P se
bang tong bien ong cua cac nhan to anh hng en no, ta co the tnh ( ) P theo
cong thc sau:
r f O q d p c P P P P P P P P = + + + + + +
(4.7)
Khi xac nh mc bien ong cua cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan thuan
t hoat ong kinh doanh, chung ta co the s dung dung phng phap thay the
lien hoan e tnh, ket qua c chng minh qua cac cong thc rut gon nh sau:
oi tng phan tch ( ) P
:
1 0 P P P =



113


Mc bien ong cua nhan to khoi lng san pham tieu thu ( ) q P
:
Mc bien ong cua
nhan to khoi lng
=
Li nhuan
ke hoach
x
He so tang (giam) ty
le khoi lng tieu thu
(4.8)
Trong o:
Khoi lng tieu thu ky thc hien He so tang (giam) ty le
khoi lng tieu thu ( k)
=
Khoi lng tieu thu ky ke hoach
x 100%
Nh vay cong thc (4.8) co the viet lai nh sau:
0 q P P k =
(4.9)
Mc bien ong cua nhan to ket cau san pham tieu thu ( ) d P
:



Hay c viet lai theo cong thc:
( )
1( 0) 0 q d P P P P =
(4.10)
Mc bien ong cua nhan to cac khoan giam tr ( ) r P
:



Cong thc c viet lai nh sau:
( )
1 1 0 r P q r r =
(4.11)
Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia ban ( ) p P :

Li nhuan TH
theo gia KH
Article I.
nh hng
cua nhan to

Mc bien ong
nhan to ket cau
-
=
Li nhuan
ke hoach
-
x
Mc anh hng
cua nhan to cac
khoan giam tr
=
CK giam tr CK giam tr
thc hien ke hoach
Article II. K
hoi lng tieu
thu thc hien
_


114





Viet lai theo cong thc tren:
( )
1 1 0 P p q p p =
(4.12)
Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia von ( ) c P
:



Hay c viet lai theo cong thc:
( )
1 1 0 Pc q c c =
(4.13)
Mc bien ong cua nhan to thu nhap hoat ong tai chnh ( ) f P :



Viet lai theo cong thc tren:
( )
1 1 0 P f q f f =
(4.14)
Mc bien ong cua nhan to chi ph hoat ong ( ) O P :



Hay c viet lai theo cong thc:
( )
1 1 0 PO q O O =
(4.15)
x
Mc anh hng
cua nhan to gia
ban san pham
=
n gia ban n gia ban
thc hien ke hoach
Article III. K
hoi lng tieu
thu thc hien
_
x
Mc anh hng
cua nhan to gia
von hang ban
=
n gia von n gia von
thc hien ke hoach
Article IV. K
hoi lng tieu
thu thc hien
_
x
Mc anh hng
cua nhan to TN
hoat ong TC
=
TN t HTC TN t HTC
n v ky TH n v ky KH
Article V. K
hoi lng tieu
thu thc hien
_
x
Mc anh hng
cua nhan to chi
ph hoat ong
=
Chi ph H Chi ph H
n v ky TH n v ky KH
Article VI. K
hoi lng tieu
thu thc hien
_


115

Lu y:
Trc khi tong hp mc o tac ong cua cac nhan to en oi tng phan
tch, can chu y en cac nhan to bien ong ty le nghch vi li nhuan (tc la khi
cac nhan to nay tang len se lam cho li nhuan giam xuong).
Cac nhan to bien ong ty le nghch vi li nhuan phai c oi dau sau khi
tnh bang cac cong thc tren.
V du minh hoa:
Co so lieu ve tnh hnh tieu thu hang hoa tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau:
Hng dan:
e qua trnh tnh toan li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh dien ra
nhanh chong va chnh xac, can thiet phai lap 03 bang tnh li nhuan nh sau:
BANG PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN HKD KY KE HOACH
n v tnh:1.000ong
Li nhuan thuan t
HKD San pham Doanh thu
Cac
khoan
giam tr
Gia von
hang ban
Thu nhap
t HTC
Chi ph
hoat ong
So tien Ty le LN
A 30.000 300 15.000 0 900 13.800 46,00%
B 25.000 1.000 15.000 250 2.000 7.250 29,00%
C 7.000 175 3.500 175 700 2.800 40,00%
Tong cong 62.000 1.475 33.500 425 3.600 23.850 38,47%

Ten
san
pham
Khoi lng
san pham
hang hoa
(san pham)
n gia
ban
(1.000)
Giam gia
hang ban
(1.000/sp)
Thu nhap
t HTC
(1.000/sp)
Gia von
n v
(1.000)
Chi ph
hoat ong
(1.000/sp)
KH TH KH TH KH TH KH TH KH TH KH TH
A 300 320 100 95 1 1,5 0 0,5 50 55 3 3,5
B 500 650 50 55 2 2,5 0,5 1 30 25 4 3,5
C 350 340 20 22 0,5 0 0,5 2 10 12 2 2


116

BANG PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN HKD KY THC HIEN
n v tnh:1.000ong
Li nhuan thuan t
HKD San pham Doanh thu
Cac
khoan
giam tr
Gia von
hang ban
Thu nhap
t HTC
Chi ph
hoat ong
So tien Ty le LN
A 30.400 480 17.600 160 1.120 11.360 37,37%
B 35.750 1.625 16.250 650 2.275 16.250 45,45%
C 7.480 0 4.080 680 680 3.400 45,45%
Tong cong 73.630 2.105 37.930 1.490 4.075 31.010 42,12%

BANG PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN HKD KY THC HIEN
THEO GIA KE HOACH
n v tnh:1.000ong
Li nhuan thuan t
HKD San pham Doanh thu
Cac
khoan
giam tr
Gia von
hang ban
Thu nhap
t HTC
Chi ph
hoat ong
So tien Ty le LN
A 32.000 320 16.000 0 960 14.720 46,00%
B 32.500 1.300 19.500 325 2.600 9.425 29,00%
C 6.800 170 3.400 170 680 2.720 40,00%
Tong cong 71.300 1.790 38.900 495 4.240 26.865 37,68%
oi tng phan tch ( ) P
:
1 0 31.010 23.850 7.160 ( ) P P P ng = = =
Mc bien ong cua nhan to khoi lng san pham tieu thu ( ) q P
:
0
71.300
23.850 100% 3.577, 50 ( )
62.000
| |
= = =
|
\
q P P k ng

Mc bien ong cua nhan to ket cau san pham tieu thu ( ) d P
:
( ) ( ) 1(0) 0 26.865 23.850 3.577, 50 562, 5( ) = = = d q ng P P P P


117

Mc bien ong cua nhan to cac khoan giam tr ( ) r P :
( ) 1 1 0 r P 2.105 1.790 315 ( ) q r r ng = = =

Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia ban ( ) p P
:
( ) 1 1 0 P 73.630 71.300 2.330 ( ) p q p p ng = = =

Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia von ( ) c P :
( ) 1 1 0 P 37.930 38.900 970 ( ) = = = c q c c ng

Mc bien ong cua nhan to thu nhap hoat ong tai chnh ( ) f P
:
( ) 1 1 0 P 1.490 495 995 ( ) f q f f ng = = =
Mc bien ong cua nhan to chi ph hoat ong ( ) O P :
( ) 1 1 0 P 4.075 4.240 165 ( ) O q O O ng = = =

Tong hp cac nhan to tac ong en oi tng phan tch:
( ) 3.577,50 562,50 315 2.330 970 995 165 7.160 ( ) = + + + + + = P ng














118

CHUONG
PHAN TCH TAI CHNH

5.1. KHAI QUAT VE BAO CAO TAI CHNH
5.1.1. Khai niem ve bao cao tai chnh
Bao cao ke toan nh ky (bao cao tai chnh) bao gom nhng bao cao phan
anh cac mat khac nhau trong hoat ong kinh te tai chnh cua doanh nghiep
nham phuc vu yeu cau quan ly a dang cap o v mo lan vi mo. Bao cao ke
toan nh ky c Nha nc quy nh thong nhat ve danh muc he thong cac ch
tieu, phng phap tnh toan va xac lap tng ch tieu cu the.
Nguon thong tin e thiet lap bao cao tai chnh c thu thap t au? Trong
thc te, nguon thong tin thu thap c t hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cua
doanh nghiep se la nguon cung cap d lieu au vao cho ke toan. Vi cong viec
thu thap x ly va bang cac phng phap khoa hoc cua mnh, ke toan a phat hoa
mot bc tranh tong the ve hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cung nh tnh hnh tai
chnh cua doanh nghiep vao thi iem cuoi ky ke toan.
5.1.2. Muc ch bao cao tai chnh
Bao cao tai chnh dung e cung cap thong tin ve tnh hnh tai chnh, tnh
hnh kinh doanh va cac luong tien cua doanh nghiep, ap ng yeu cau quan ly
cua chu doanh nghiep, c quan Nha nc va nhu cau hu ch cua nhng ngi s
dung trong viec a ra cac quyet nh kinh te. Bao cao tai chnh phai cung cap
nhng thong tin cua mot doanh nghiep ve:
- Tai san;


119

- N phai tra va von chu s hu;
- Doanh thu, thu nhap khac, chi ph kinh doanh va chi ph khac;
- Lai, lo va phan chia ket qua kinh doanh;
- Thue va cac khoan phai nop Nha nc;
- Tai san khac co lien quan en n v ke toan;
- Cac luong tien.
Ngoai cac thong tin nay, doanh nghiep con phai cung cap cac thong tin
khac trong Bang thuyet minh bao cao tai chnh nham giai trnh them ve cac
ch tieu a phan anh tren cac bao cao tai chnh tong hp va cac chnh sach ke
toan a ap dung e ghi nhan cac nghiep vu kinh te phat sinh, lap va trnh bay
bao cao tai chnh.
5.1.3. oi tng cua bao cao tai chnh
He thong bao cao tai chnh theo quy nh hien nay co 4 loai:
- Bang can oi ke toan
- Bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh
- Bao cao lu chuyen tien te
o Theo phng phap trc tiep
o Theo phng phap gian tiep
- Bang thuyet minh bao cao tai chnh
Khi lap va trnh bay bao cao tai chnh, doanh nghiep phai tuan thu cac yeu
cau a c quy nh tai Chuan mc ke toan so 21 Trnh bay bao cao tai
chnh nh sau:


120

- Ke toan trnh bay mot cac trung thc va hp ly tnh hnh tai chnh va
kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep
- Ke toan phai la chon va ap dung cac chnh sach ke toan phu hp vi
quy nh cua tng chuan mc ke toan nham am bao cung cap thong tin
thch hp vi nhu cau ra cac quyet nh kinh te cua ngi s dung va
cung cap c cac thong tin ang tin cay, khi trnh bay trung thc, hp
ly tnh hnh tai chnh, ket qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep; Phan anh
ung ban chat kinh te cua cac giao dch va s kien khong ch n thuan
phan anh hnh thc hp phap cua chung; Trnh bay khach quan, khong
thien v; Tuan thu nguyen tac than trong; Trnh bay ay u tren moi
kha canh trong yeu.
Thong tin cua bao cao tai chnh la can c quan trong cho viec e ra cac
quyet nh ve quan ly, ieu hanh hoat ong san xuat, kinh doanh, hoac au t
vao doanh nghiep cua cac chu doanh nghiep, chu s hu, cac nha au t, cac
chu n hien tai va tng lai cua doanh nghiep. e giai quyet cac van e tren
ngoai bang can oi ke toan, bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh con phai co bao cao
thuyet minh va phan tch so lieu ve tnh hnh tai san, chi tiet nh tai san co nh,
tnh hnh ton kho, tnh hnh nguon von; cac yeu to doanh thu, chi ph va ket qua.
Xuat phat t cac yeu cau can thiet tren, he thong bao cao tai chnh ban
hanh theo quyet nh 15/2006/QBTC ngay 20/03/2006 do Bo Tai chnh ban
hanh quy nh che o ke toan tai chnh nh ky bat buoc doanh nghiep phai lap
va nop; kem theo cac van ban, thong t, chuan mc bo sung en thong t
20/2006/TT-BTC, thong t 21/2006/TT-BTC ngay 20/03/2006.
Cac doanh nghiep phai lap bao cao tai chnh theo ky ke toan nam la nam
dng lch hoac ky ke toan nam la 12 thang tron sau khi thong bao cho c quan


121

thue. Trng hp ac biet, doanh nghiep c phep thay oi ngay ket thuc ky
ke toan toan nam dan en viec lap bao cao tai chnh cho mot ky ke toan nam
au tien hay ky ke toan nam cuoi cung co the ngan hn hoac dai hn 12 thang
nhng khong c vt qua 15 thang. Ky lap bao cao tai chnh gia nien o la
moi quy cua nam tai chnh (khong bao gom quy IV). Cac doanh nghiep co the
lap bao cao tai chnh theo ky ke toan khac (nh tuan, thang, 6 thang, 9 thang)
theo yeu cau cua phap luat, cua cong ty me hoac chu s hu.
Bang 5.1. Bang ke cac c quan nhan bao cao tai chnh
Ni nhan bao cao
Cac loai doanh
nghiep
Ky lap
bao cao
Bo/S
tai chnh
C quan
Thue
C quan
Thong
ke
DN cap
tren
C quan
ang ky
kinh
doanh
Doanh nghiep
Nha nc
Quy,
nam
x x x x x
Doanh nghiep co
von au t nc
ngoai
Nam x x x x x
Cac loai doanh
nghiep khac
Nam x x x x
5.1.4. Nguyen tac lap bao cao tai chnh
a. Bang can oi ke toan
Bang can oi ke toan phan anh cau thanh cua tng loai tai san va tng loai
nguon von cac thi iem bao cao. ong thi cho thay s bien ong cua tng
loai tai san tng loai nguon von gia cac thi ky.
Phan tai san gom:


122

A: Tai san lu ong va au t ngan han
B: Tai san co nh va au t dai han
Phan nguon hnh thanh tai san gom:
A: N phai tra (trach nhiem n)
B: Nguon von chu s hu
Ta co ang thc:
TAI SAN = NGUON VON = NGUON HNH THANH TAI SAN
Lay so lieu v du tai Cong ty co phan BKBH tai khu cong nghiep Bien Hoa
ong Nai, vao thi iem lap 31/12/2005 nh sau:
Bang 5.2. Bang can oi ke toan cong ty BKBH nam 2005

CONG TY CO PHAN BKBH MAU SO B 01- DN
KHU CONG NGHIEP BIEN HOA - ONG NAI
BANG CAN OI KE TOAN
Ngay 31 thang 12 nam 2005
n v tnh: VN
TAI SAN Ma so
Thuyet
minh
SO AU NAM SO CUOI KY
1 2 3 3 4
A. TAI SAN NGAN HAN 100 91.310.598.011 100.172.191.896
I. Tien va cac khoan tng ng tien 110 7.529.033.775 11.170.113.788
1. Tien 111 V.01 7.529.033.775 11.170.113.788
2. Cac khoan tng ng tien 112
II. Cac khoan au t TC ngan han 120 V.02 0
1. au t ngan han 121


123

2. D phong giam gia au t ngan han (*) 129
III. Cac khoan phai thu 130 24.005.549.325 26.583.506.752
1. Phai thu cua khach hang 131 22.108.789.872 25.540.870.164
2. Tra trc cho ngi ban 132 949.748.245 452.810.246
3. Phai thu noi bo ngan han 133
4. Phai thu theo tien o ke hoach hp
ong XD
134
5. Cac khoan phai thu khac 135 V.03 1.089.225.122 732.040.256
6. D phong cac khoan phai thu kho oi (*) 139 (142.213.914) (142.213.914)
IV. Hang ton kho 140 58.485.823.029 61.231.246.530
1. Hang ton kho 141 V.04 58.485.823.029 61.566.390.183
2. D phong giam gia hang ton kho (*) 149 (335.143.653)
V. Tai san ngan han khac 150 1.290.191.882 1.187.324.827
1. Chi ph tra trc ngan han 151 437.920.581 299.635.840
2. Thue GTGT c khau tr 152 126.458.605 60.962.500
3. Thue va cac khoan khac phai thu Nha
nc
154 V.05
4. Tai san ngan han khac 158 725.812.696 826.726.487
B. TAI SAN DAI HAN 200 68.223.689.500 77.687.808.011
I- Cac khoan phai thu dai han 210 0
1. Phai thu dai han cua khach hang 211
2. Von kinh doanh n v trc thuoc 212
3. Phai thu dai han noi bo 213 V.06
4.Phai thu dai han khac 218 V.07
5. D phong phai thu dai han kho oi (*) 219
II. Tai san co nh 220 64.780.218.934 71.262.466.516
1. Tai san co nh hu hnh 221 V.08 63.390.053.816 63.063.651.743


124

- Nguyen gia 222 147.994.221.805 155.971.514.719
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 223 (84.604.167.989) (92.907.862.977)
2. Tai san co nh thue tai chnh 224 V.09 0
- Nguyen gia 225
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 226
3. Tai san co nh vo hnh 227 V.10 188.540.376 256.080.000
- Nguyen gia 228 256.080.000 256.080.000
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 229 (67.539.624) 0
4. Chi ph xay dng c ban d dang 230 V.11 1.201.624.742 7.942.734.773
III. Bat ong san au t 240 V.12 0
- Nguyen gia 241
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 242
IV. Cac khoan au t tai chnh dai han 250 3.719.715.000
1. au t vao Cong ty con 251
2. au t vao Cong ty LD, lien ket. 252
3. au t dai han khac 258 V.13 3.719.715.000
4. D phong giam gia chng khoan au
t dai han (*)
259
V. Chi ph tra trc dai han 260 3.443.470.566 2.705.626.496
1. Chi ph tra trc dai han 261 V.14 3.443.470.566 2.705.626.496
2. Tai san thue thu nhap hoan lai 262 V.21
3. Tai san dai han khac 268
TONG CONG TAI SAN 270 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907
NGUON VON
A. N PHAI TRA 300 78.804.586.416 81.089.225.534
I. N NGAN HAN 310 76.153.983.885 76.178.751.003
1. Vay va n ngan han 311 V.15 30.107.038.869 23.328.613.425


125

2. Phai tra ngi ban 312 31.162.205.704 45.173.117.606
3. Ngi mua tra tien trc 313 350.021.544 0
4. Thue va cac khoan phai nop Nha nc 314 V.16 4.426.568.833 2.395.570.134
5. Phai tra ngi lao ong 315 1.146.277.875 2.059.902.233
6. Chi ph phai tra 316 V.17 2.579.458.989 1.665.988.532
7. Phai tra noi bo 317
8. Phai tra theo tien o ke hoach hp
ong xay dng
318
9. Cac khoan phai tra, phai nop ngan
han khac
319 V.18 6.382.412.071 1.555.559.073
10. D phong phai tra ngan han 320
II. N dai han 2.650.602.531 4.910.474.531
1. Phai tra dai han ngi ban 331
2. Phai tra dai han noi bo 332 V.19
3. Phai tra dai han khac 333 2.650.602.531 2.910.474.531
4. Vay va n dai han 334 V.20 2.000.000.000
5. Thue thu nhap hoan lai phai tra 335 V.21
6. D phong tr cap mat viec lam 336
7. D phong phai tra dai han 337
B. NGUON VON CHU S HU 400 80.729.701.095 96.770.774.373
I. Von chu s hu 410 V.22 80.468.244.095 96.553.769.887
1. Von au t cua chu s hu 411 84.312.185.344 56.000.000.000
2. Thang d von co phan 412 27.382.833.351
3. Von khac cua chu s hu 413
4. Co phieu ngan quy 414 (6.588.010.602) 0
5. Chenh lech anh gia lai tai san 415
6. Chenh lech ty gia hoi oai 416 0


126

7. Quy au t phat trien 417 1.967.555.390 1.967.555.390
8. Quy d phong tai chnh 418 494.325.540 494.325.540
9. Quy khac thuoc von chu s hu 419
10. Li nhuan cha phan phoi 420 282.188.423 10.709.055.606
11. Nguon von au t XDCB 421
II. NGUON KINH PH VA QUY KHAC 430 261.457.000 217.004.486
1. Quy khen thng va phuc li 431 261.457.000 217.004.486
2. Nguon kinh ph 432 V.23
3.Nguon kinh ph a hnh thanh TSC 433
TONG CONG NGUON VON 440 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907
Ngay 20 thang 01 nam 2006
Ngi lap bieu Ke toan trng Giam oc cong ty
b. Bang bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh:
Bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh phan anh tnh hnh va ket qua kinh doanh
(lai, lo kinh doanh) cua tng mat hoat ong kinh doanh cua n v, ong thi
phan anh tnh hnh thc hien ngha vu vi Nha nc cua n v nh thue va tnh
hnh chap hanh Luat thue GTGT bao gom khau tr thue, hoan thue, mien giam
thue.
Cac yeu to c ban cua bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh:
- Doanh thu (Sales Revenue)
- Tr gia von hang ban (Cost of Goods Sold)
- Lai gop (Gross Margin / Gross Profit)
- Chi ph kinh doanh (Operating Expenses)
o Chi ph ban hang (Selling Expenses)
o Chi ph quan ly (General anh Administrative Expenses)


127

- Cong chi ph kinh doanh (Total Operating Expenses)
- Lai t hoat ong kinh doanh (Income from Operation)
- Li tc va chi ph khong kinh doanh (Non Operating Income and
Expenses)
- Lai (lo) trc thue li tc (Income before tax)
- Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (Income Tax Expenses)
- Lai rong sau thue (Net Income after tax)
Ket cau cua bang bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh gom 3 phan:
- Phan 1: Lai lo trong kinh doanh c phan anh theo ky trc, cua ky
nay va luy ke t au nam theo 3 ch tieu doanh thu, chi ph va li nhuan
- Phan 2: Tnh hnh thc hien ngha vu Nha nc
- Phan 3: Thue gia tr gia tang
Mau bang bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh theo quy nh:
Lay so lieu v du tai Cong ty co phan BKBH tai khu cong nghiep Bien Hoa
ong Nai, vao thi iem lap 31/12/2005 nh sau:









128

Bang 5.3. Bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005

CONG TY CO PHAN BKBH MAU SO B02 -DN
KHU CONG NGHIEP BIEN HOA - ONG NAI
BAO CAO KET QUA HOAT ONG KINH DOANH
QUY IV NAM 2005
n v tnh: VN
CH TIEU
MA
SO
Thuyet
minh
QU IV/2005
LUY KE T
AU NAM

1 2 4 5 6
1. Doanh thu ban hang va cung cap dch vu 01 IV.25 95.141.980.300 287.091.873.695
2. Cac khoan giam tr 02 396.876.083 1.729.630.268
+ Chiet khau thng mai
+ Hang ban b tra lai 396.876.083 1.729.630.268
3. Doanh thu thuan ve ban hang va cung cap
dch vu
10 94.745.104.217 285.362.243.427
4. Gia von hang ban 11 IV.27 72.145.029.140 216.460.252.898
5. Li nhuan gop ve ban hang va cung cap
dch vu
20 22.600.075.077 68.901.990.529
6. Doanh thu hoat ong tai chnh 21 IV.26 58.394.105 219.830.271
7. Chi ph tai chnh 22 IV.28 771.600.047 3.152.731.691
Trong o: Chi ph lai vay 23 760.639.363 3.094.576.449
8. Chi ph ban hang 24 11.307.623.516 35.855.698.472
9. Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep 25 4.770.172.599 14.267.201.071


129

10. Li nhuan thuan t HKD 30 5.809.073.021 15.846.189.567
11. Thu nhap khac 31 379.740.834 560.108.100
12. Chi ph khac 32 53.264.187 390.346.920
13. Li nhuan khac 40 326.476.647 169.761.180
14. Tong li nhuan ke toan trc thue 50 6.135.549.668 16.015.950.746
15. Chi ph thue thu nhap DN hien hanh 51 IV.30 1.366.932.219 3.731.895.140
16. Chi ph thue TNDN hoan lai 52 IV.30
17. Li nhuan sau thue thu nhap DN 60 4.768.617.449 12.284.055.606
18. Lai c ban tren co phieu 70 2.194
Ngay 20 thang 01 nam 2006
Ngi lap bieu Ke toan trng Giam oc cong ty
c. Bao cao lu chuyen tien te:
Con goi la bao cao ngan lu hay bao cao lu kim, la bao cao tai chnh can
thiet khong nhng oi vi nha quan tr hoac giam oc tai chnh ma con la moi
quan tam cua nhieu oi tng en tnh hnh tai chnh cua doanh nghiep. Bao cao
ngan lu the hien lu lng tien vao, lu lng tien ra cua doanh nghiep. Ket
qua phan tch ngan lu cua doanh nghiep ieu phoi lng tien mat (tien mat tai
quy, tien gi ngan hang, cac chng th co gia tr nh tien: co phieu, trai phieu,
tn phieu,) mot cach can oi gia cac lnh vc: hoat ong kinh doanh, hoat ong
au t va hoat ong tai chnh. Noi mot cac khac, bao cao ngan lu ch ra cac lnh
vc nao tao ra nguon tien (sources), lnh vc nao s dung tien (uses), kha nang
thanh toan, lng tien tha, thieu va thi iem can s dung e at hieu qua cao
nhat, toi thieu hoa chi ph s dung von (minimization cost of capital).


130

Bao cao ngan lu c tong hp t 3 dong ngan lu rong, t 3 hoat ong
cua doanh nghiep:
- Hoat ong kinh doanh: Hoat ong chnh cua doanh nghiep: san xuat,
thng mai, dch vu,
- Hoat ong au t: Trang b, thay oi TSC, au t chng khoan, lien
doanh, hun von, au t kinh doanh bat ong san,
- Hoat ong tai chnh: Nhng hoat ong lam thay oi c cau tai chnh:
thay oi trong von chu s hu, n vay, phat hanh trai phieu, phat hanh
va mua lai co phieu, tra co tc,
Mau bao cao lu chuyen tien te theo mau quy nh:
Bang 5.4. Bang bao cao lu chuyen tien te cong ty BKBH nam 2005
CONG TY CO PHAN BKBH Mau B 03 - DN
KHU CONG NGHIEP BIEN HOA - ONG NAI
BAO CAO LU CHUYEN TIEN TE
(Theo phng phap gian tiep)
Nam 2005
n v tnh: VN
CH TIEU Ma so
Thuyet
minh
Nam nay
I. LU CHUYEN TIEN T HOAT ONG KINH
DOANH

1. Li nhuan trc thue 01 16.015.950.746
2. ieu chnh cho cac khoan
- Khau hao tai san co nh 02 8.270.584.159
- Cac khoan d phong 03 335.143.653
- Lai, lo chenh lech ty gia hoi oai cha thc hien 04
- Lai, lo t hoat ong au t 05


131

-Chi ph lai vay 06 3.094.576.449
3. Li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh trc thay oi von
lu ong
08 27.716.255.007
- Tang, giam cac khoan phai thu 09 (3.068.290.163)
- Tang, giam hang ton kho 10 (2.745.423.501)
- Tang, giam cac khoan phai tra (khong ke lai vay phai
tra, thue thu nhap phai nop)
11 5.481.298.172
- Tang, giam chi ph tra trc 12 876.128.812
- Tien lai vay a tra 13 (3.094.576.449)
- Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep a nop 14 (5.143.423.080)
- Tien thu khac t hoat ong kinh doanh 15 440.892.190
- Tien chi khac t hoat ong kinh doanh 16 (3.800.000)
Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh 20 20.459.060.988
II. LU CHUYEN TIEN T HOAT ONG AU T
1.Tien chi e mua sam, xay dng tai san co nh va cac
tai san dai han khac
21 (6.741.110.031)
2. Tien thu t thanh ly, nhng ban tai san co nh va cac
tai san dai han khac
22
3. Tien chi cho vay, mua cac cong cu n cua n v khac 23
4. Tien thu hoi cho vay, ban lai cac cong cu n cua n v
khac
24
5. Tien chi au t gop von vao n v khac 25 (2.774.715.000)
6. Tien thu hoi au t gop von vao n v khac 26
7. Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li nhuan c chia 27
Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong au t 30 (9.515.825.031)
III. LU CHUYEN TIEN T HOAT ONG TAI
CHNH

1. Tien thu t phat hanh co phieu, nhan von gop cua chu
s hu, co phieu ngan quy
31 -


132

2. Tien chi tra von gop cho cac chu s hu, mua lai co
phieu cua doanh nghiep a phat hanh
32 (945.000.000)
3. Tien vay ngan han, dai han nhan c 33 75.977.912.342
4. Tien chi tra n goc vay 34 (80.756.337.786)
5. Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh 35 -
6. Co tc, li nhuan a tra cho chu s hu 36 (1.578.730.500)
Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong tai chnh 40 (7.302.155.944)
Lu chuyen tien thuan trong ky 50 3.641.080.013
Tien va tng ng tien au ky 60 7.529.033.775
- Anh hng cua thay oi ty gia hoi oai quy oi ngoai te 61
Tien va tng ng tien cuoi ky 70 11.170.113.788
Ngay 20 thang 01 nam 2006
Ngi lap bieu Ke toan trng Giam oc cong ty

5.2. PHAN TCH CAC TY SO TAI CHNH
5.2.1. Muc ch phan tch cac ty so tai chnh
Phan tch bao cao tai chnh ap ng nhu cau s dung thong tin cua nhieu
oi tng quan tam en nhng kha canh khac nhau ve tai chnh e phuc vu cho
cac muc ch cua mnh.
Cac nha phan tch tai chnh tnh toan mot vai ch so tai chnh chu yeu e o
lng thanh qua cua cong ty. Cac ch so tai chnh nay co the giup chung ta a
ra nhng cau hoi ung, gia du, giam oc tai chnh co the d kien mot vai cau hoi
ve ch so n cua cong ty va phan li nhuan giam do lai vay. Tng t, cac ch so
tai chnh co the canh giac giam oc ve cac lnh vc kho khan tiem an. Neu mot
chi nhanh co ty suat sinh li tren von thap chung ta co the oan chac rang giam
oc se yeu cau chi nhanh nay phai giai thch.


133

Cac cong ty ang tang trng can au t vao von luan chuyen, nha xng
va thiet b, au t cho phat trien san pham, tat ca eu can tien mat. V the,
chung ta se giai thch lam the nao cac cong ty s dung cac mo hnh ke hoach tai
chnh e giup hohieu nhng tiem an tai chnh trong cac ke hoach kinh doanh va
e khao sat cac ket qua cua chien lc tai chnh.
5.2.2. Cac ty so tai chnh
Hau het cac ty so tai chnh e co nhng cai ten mo ta cho ngi s dung
nhan biet c lam the nao e tnh toan cac ty so ay hoac lam the nao e co the
hieu c lng gia tr cua no.
Cac loai ty so tai chnh quan trong nhat la:
- Ty so thanh toan o lng kha nang thanh toan cua cong ty.
- Ty so hoat ong o lng mc o hoat ong lien quan en tai san.
- Ty so on bay cho thay viec s dung n cua cong ty co anh hng nh
the nao en hieu qua hoat ong kinh doanh.
- Ty so sinh li bieu hien kha nang tao lai cua tai san va von chu s hu.
- Ty so gia th trng cho thay cong ty c cac nha thau anh gia nh
the nao.
Chung ta se phan tch cac ty so tren va s dung so lieu tren bang can oi
ke toan va bang bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh cua Cong ty co phan BKBH nam
2005 e tnh toan.
a. Ty so thanh toan Liquidity Raitos
Ty so thanh toan hien hanh Current ratio: Mot trong nhng thc o kha
nang thanh toan cua mot cong ty s dung rong rai nhat la kha nang thanh toan
hien hanh:


134

Tai san lu ong
Ty so thanh toan hien hanh (Rc) =
N ngan han
Tai san lu ong bao gom cac khoan von bang tien, au t tai chnh ngan
han (bao gom chng khoan th trng), cac khoan phai thu, hang ton kho va tai
san lu ong khac.
N ngan han la cac khoan n phai tra trong nam bao gom: vay ngan han,
vay dai han en han tra va cac khoan phai tra khac.
Ty so Rc cho thay cong ty co bao nhieu tai san co the chuyen oi thanh tien
mat e am bao thanh toan cac khoan n ngan han. Ty so nay o lng kha
nang tra n cua cong ty.
Ty so thanh toan hien hanh cua cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005 la:
100.172.191.896
Rc =
76.178.751.003
= 1,31
Rc = 1,31 cho thay nam 2004 cong ty BKBH co 1,31 ong tai san lu ong
am bao cho 1 ong n en han tra. Ty so nay c chap nhan hay khong tuy
thuoc vao s so sanh vi ty so thanh toan cua cac cong ty canh tranh hoac so
sanh vi cac nam trc e thay s tien bo hoac giam sut.
Neu ty so hien hanh giam cho thay kha nang thanh toan giam va cung la
dau hieu bao trc nhng kho khan tai chnh se xay ra.
Neu ty so hien hanh cao ieu o co ngha la cong ty luon san sang thanh
toan cac khoan n. Tuy nhien, neu ty so thanh toan hien hanh qua cao se lam
giam hieu qua hoat ong v cong ty a au t qua nhieu vao tai san lu ong hay
noi cach khac viec quan ly tai san lu ong khong hieu qua (v du: co qua nhieu


135

tien mat nhan roi, n phai oi, hang ton kho ong). Mot cong ty neu d tr
nhieu hang ton kho th se co ty so thanh toan hien hanh cao, ma ta a biet hang
ton kho la tai san kho hoan chuyen thanh tien, nhat la hang ton kho ong, kem
pham chat. V the, trong nhieu trng hp, ty so thanh toan hien hanh khong
phan anh chnh xac kha nang thanh toan cua cong ty.
Ty so thanh toan nhanh Quick ratio: Ty so thanh toan nhanh c tnh
toan da tren nhng tai san lu ong co the nhanh chong chuyen oi thanh tien,
oi khi chung c goi la tai san co tnh thanh khoan, tai san co tnh thanh
khoan bao gom tat ca tai san lu ong tr hanh ton kho.
Tai san lu ong hang ton kho
Ty so thanh toan nhanh (Rq) =
N ngan han

100.172.191.896 - 61.231.246.530
Rq =
76.178.751.003
= 0,51
Ty so nay cho thay kha nang thanh toan thc s cua mot cong ty. Ty so
thanh toan nhanh cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 la 0,51 co ngha la cong ty co
51% tai san co tnh thanh khoan cho moi ong n en han. Ty so thanh toan
nhanh 0,51 con cho biet rang neu hang ton kho cua cong ty ong, khong ang
gia th cong ty se lam vao kho khan tai chnh goi la khong co kha nang chi
tra. Khong co kha nang chi tra xay ra khi mot cong ty khong u ieu tien e
tra cac khoan n khi chung en han.





136

b. Ty so hoat ong Activity Raitos
Ty so hoat ong o lng hoat ong kinh doanh cua mot cong ty. e nang
cao ty so hoat ong , cac nha quan tr phai biet la nhng tai san cha dung hoac
khong dung khong tao ra thu nhap v the cong ty can phai biet cach s dung
chung co hieu qua hoac loai bo chung i. Ty so hoat ong oi khi con goi la ty
so hieu qua hoac ty so luan chuyen.
So vong quay cac khoan phai thu Accounts receivable turnover ratio: Cac
khoan phai thu la nhng hoa n ban hang cha thu tien ve do cong ty thc hien
chnh sach ban chu va cac khoan tam ng cha thanh toan, khoan tra trc cho
ngi ban
So vong quay cac khoan phai thu c s dung e xem xet can than viec
thanh toan cac khoan phai thu Khi khach hang thanh toan tat ca cac hoa n
cua ho, luc o cac khoan phai thu quay c mot vong.
Doanh thu thuan
Vong quay cac khoan phai thu =
Cac khoan phai thu

285.362.243.427
So vong quay cac khoan phai
thu cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
26.583.506.752
= 10,73
Ty so tren cho thay nam 2005 cac khoan phai thu luan chuyen 10,73 lan.
ieu nay co ngha la bnh quan 360/10,73 = 33,5 ngay cong ty mi thu hoi c
n. Ty so nay co the c thc hien dang khac o la ty so ky thu tien bnh
quan (average collection period).



137

Cac khoan phai thu
Ky thu tien bnh quan =
Doanh thu bnh quan ngay

26.583.506.752

285.362.243.427/360
= 33,5 ngay
So vong quay cac khoan phai thu hoac ky thu tien bnh quan cao hay thap
phu thuoc vao chnh sach ban chu cua cong ty.
Neu so vong quay thay th hieu qua s dung von kem do von b chiem dung
nhieu. Nhng neu so vong quay cac khoan phai thu qua cao th se lam giam sc
canh tranh dan en giam doanh thu.
Khi phan tch ch so nay, ngoai viec so sanh gia cac nam, so sanh vi cac
cong ty cung nganh, cong ty can xem xet ky lng tng khoan phai thu e phat
hien nhng khoan n a qua han tra va co bien phap x ly.
So vong quay hang ton kho Inventory turnover ratio: So vong quay hang
ton kho la mot tieu chuan anh gia cong ty s dung hang ton kho cua mnh hieu
qua nh the nao.
Doanh thu thuan
Vong quay hang ton kho =
Hang ton kho

285.362.243.427
So vong quay hang ton kho cua
cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
61.231.246.530
= 4,66


138

Tnh toan tren cho thay rang trong nam 2005 hang ton kho cua cong ty
BKBH luan chuyen 4,66 vong co ngha la khoang 77,25 ngay mot vong.
So vong luan chuyen hang ton kho cao hay thap tuy thuoc vao ac iem
nganh kinh doanh. Neu cong ty BKBH la nha may san xuat ru vang vi so
vong luan chuyen hang ton kho 4,66 vong/nam cho thay cong ty a san xuat san
pham qua nhanh en noi ru cha thch hp e uong. Ngc lai, neu cong ty
kinh doanh rau qua ti vi hang hoa khoang 77,25 ngay quay vong mot lan th
co le hang hoa cha kp ban a b h hong.
Hieu suat s dung tai san co nh Sales-to-Fixed assets ratio: Ty so nay
noi len 1 ong tai san co nh tao ra bao nhieu ong doanh thu. Qua o anh gia
hieu qua s dung tai san co nh cong ty.
Doanh thu thuan
Hieu suat s dung TSC =
Tai san co nh

285.362.243.427
Hieu suat s dung TSC cua
cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
71.262.466.516
= 4,004
Ty so tren cho thay tai cong ty BKBH 1 ong tai san co nh a tao ra c
4,004 ong doanh thu. Muon anh gia viec s dung tai san co nh co hieu qua
khong phai so sanh vi cac cong ty khac cung nganh hoac so sanh vi cac thi
ky trc.
Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai san Sale-to-total assets ratio: Hieu suat s
dung toan bo tai san o lng 1 ong tai san tham gia vao qua trnh san xuat
kinh doanh se tao ra bao nhieu ong doanh thu.


139

Doanh thu thuan
Hieu suat s dung toan bo
tai san
=
Toan bo tai san

285.362.243.427
Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai
san cua cong ty BKBH nam
2005
=
177.859.999.907
= 1,604
ieu nay co ngha la, tai cong ty BKBH trong nam 2005 1 ong tai san a
tao ra c 1,604 ong doanh thu. Neu ty so nay cao cho thay cong ty ang hoat
ong gan het cong suat va rat kho e m rong hoat ong neu khong au t them
von.
Hieu suat s dung von co phan Sales-to-equity ratio: Hieu suat s dung
von co phan la ch tieu rat hu ch trong viec phan tch kha canh tai chnh cua
cong ty. Hieu suat s dung von co phan o lng moi quan he gia doanh thu va
von co phan.
Doanh thu thuan
Hieu suat s dung von co phan =
Von co phan

285.362.243.427
Hieu suat s dung von co phan
cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
96.770.774.373
= 2,95
Viec tnh toan tren cho thay rang cong ty BKBH co doanh thu 2,95 lan ln
hn von co phan trong nam 2005. Ly do ma hieu suat s dung von co phan cua
cong ty ln hn tong tai san cua cong ty v cong ty a s dung on bay tai chnh
t viec tai tr bang von vay.


140

Doanh thu
thuan
Doanh thu
thuan
Tong tai san
Hiesuat s
dung von co
phan
=
Von co phan
=
Tong tai san
x
Von co phan
= Hieu suat s dung tong tai san x Boi so tai san so von co phan
177.859.999.907
= 1,604 x
96.770.774.373
= 2,95
c. Ty so on bay tai chnh Financial leverage ratios
Ty so on bay tai chnh anh gia mc o ma mot cong ty tai tr cho hoat
ong kinh doanh cua mnh bang von vay. Khi mot cong ty vay tien, cong ty luon
phai thc hien mot chuoi thanh toan co nh. V cac co ong ch nhan c
nhng g con lai sau khi chi tra cho chu n, n vay c xem la tao ra on bay.
Trong thi ky kho khan, cac cong ty co on bay tai chnh cao co kha nang khong
tra c n. V the khi cong ty muon vay tien, ngan hang se anh gia xem cong
ty co vay qua nhieu hay khong? Ngan hang cung xet xem cong ty co duy tr n
vay cua mnh trong han mc cho phep khong?
Cac nha cung cap tn dung can c vao ty so on bay tai chnh e an nh
mc lai suat cho vay oi vi cong ty (v cong ty cang co nhieu n vay, rui ro ve
mat tai chnh cang ln). cac nc phat trien, ngi ta anh gia c o rui ro
nay va tnh vao lai suat cho vay. ieu o co ngha la cong ty cang vay nhieu th
lai suat cang cao.
oi vi cong ty, ty so on bay tai chnh se giup nha quan tr tai chnh la
chon cau truc von hp ly nhat cho cong ty mnh. Qua ty so on bay tai chnh nha


141

au t thay c rui ro ve tai chnh cua cong ty t o dan en quyet nh au t
cua mnh. Cac ty so on bay thong thng la:
Ty so n tren tai san Dept ratio: Ty so nay cho thay bao nhieu phan tram
tai san cua cong ty c tai tr bang von vay.
Tong n
Ty so n =
Tong tai san
Tong n: bao gom toan bo khoan n ngan han va dai han tai thi iem lap
bao cao tai chnh gom: cac khoan phai tra, vay ngan han, n dai han do i vay
hay phat hanh trai phieu dai han. Tong tai san: toan bo tai san cua cong ty tai
thi iem lap bao cao.
81.089.225.534
Ty so n tren tai san cua cong
ty BKBH nam 2005
=
177.859.999.907
= 0,456 45,6%
ieu nay cho thay 45,60% tai san cua cong ty BKBH c tai tr bang
nguon von vay.
Lu y rang ty so nay s dung gia so sach ch khong phai gia th trng. Gia
th trng cua cong ty cuoi cung xac nh cac chu n co thu hoi c tien cua ho
khong? V the, cac nha phan tch phai xem menh gia cua cac khoan n nh mot
phan cua tong gia th trng cua n va von co phan. Ly do chnh e cac ke toan
vien lam nh the la bi v gia th trng khong co san. Co phai nh the khong?
Co le la khong. Gia th trng bao gom gia tr tai san co nh vo hnh the hien
trong chi ph nghien cu va phat trien, quang cao, Nhng tai san nay thong
thng khong san sang e ban va neu cong ty ri vao tnh canh kho khan ve tai
chnh th tat ca gia tr nay se bien mat.


142

Co the v mot ly do nao o viec cac ke toan vien bo qua tai san co nh vo
hnh lai tot cho cong ty nh khi ngi cho vay yeu cau ngi i vay khong c
phep dung ty so n theo so sach e tang cac han mc vay.
Ty so n tren von co phan Debt-to-equity ratio:
Tong n
Ty so n tren von co phan =
Von co phan

81.089.225.534
Ty so n tren von co phan cua
cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
96.770.774.373
= 0,838 83,8%
Tnh toan tren cho thay rang trong nam 2005 cac nha cho vay a tai tr t
hn von co phan 16,20% (100% - 83,80%). ieu nay dng nh cong ty a s
dung mot lng von vay con khiem ton, trong khi chiem ty trong ln la cac
khoan von vay tn dung thng mai phi lai suat va nhng khoan phai tra ngan
han. V vay e thay mc o tai tr bang von vay mot cach thng xuyen (qua o
thay c rui ro ve mat tai chnh ma cong ty phai chu), ngi ta dung ty so n
dai han tren von co phan).
N dai han
Ty so n dai han tren von co phan =
Von co phan

4.910.474.531
Ty so n dai han tren von co phan
cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
96.770.774.373
= 0,050 5,0%


143

V ty so n dai han tren von co phan co gia tr nho hn ty so n tren von co
phan ieu nay co ngha la phan ln n cua cong ty BKBH la n ngan han. Mac
du vay nhng ngi cho vay dai han a cung cap cho cong ty BKBH 5,0% ngan
quy so vi co ong.
Ty so tong tai san tren von co phan Equity multiplier ratio: Mot ty so
khac cung c s dung e tnh toan mc o i vay (rui ro tai chnh) ma cong ty
ang ganh chu o la ty so tong tai san tren von co phan.
Toan bo tai san
Ty so tai san tren von co phan =
Von co phan

177.859.999.907
Ty so tai san tren von co phan cua
cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
96.770.774.373
= 1,838 183,8%
Ty so nay cho thay trong nam 2005 cong ty a co c tong tai san gap
1,838 lan so vi von co phan. ieu nay cung cho thay tnh hnh vay n cua cong
ty. Lai vay t nhng khoan n dai han nh vay se lam gia tang nhng rui ro ve
tai chnh neu li nhuan cua cong ty lam ra khong u tra lai vay.
Kha nang thanh toan lai vay Times interest earned ratio: Lai vay hang
nam la chi ph tai chnh co nh va chung ta muon biet cong ty san sang tra lai
en mc nao. Cu the hn chung ta muon biet rang lieu so von i vay co the s
dung tot en mc nao, co the em lai khoan li nhuan bao nhieu va u bu ap
lai vay hay khong. Ty so nay dung e o mc o ma li nhuan phat sinh do s
dung von e am bao tra lai vay hang nam nh the nao. Neu cong ty qua yeu ve
mat nay, cac chu n co the i en kien tung va tuyen bo pha san.


144

Li nhuan trc thue va lai vay
Kha nang thanh toan lai vay =
Lai vay

Trong cong thc tren, phan t so phan anh so tien ma cong ty co the c
s dung e tra lai vay trong nam. ay phai lay tong so li nhuan trc thue va
lai vay v lai vay c tnh vao chi ph trc khi tnh thue thu nhap. Phan mau so
la lai vay, bao gom tien lai tra cho cac khoan vay ngan va dai han ke ca lai do
phat hanh trai phieu.
16.015.950.746 + 3.094.576.449
Kha nang thanh toan
lai vay cua cong ty
BKBH nam 2005
=
3.094.576.449
= 6,175
d. Ty so sinh li Profitability ratios
Ty so sinh li o lng thu nhap cua cong ty vi cac nhan to khac tao ra li
nhuan nh doanh thu, tong tai san von co phan.
Loai ty so nay bao gom cac ch tieu sau:
Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu Net profit margin ratio: Ch tieu nay noi
len 1 ong doanh thu tao ra c bao nhieu ong li nhuan.
Li nhuan rong
Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu =
Doanh thu thuan

12.284.055.606
Ty so sinh li tren doanh thu cua
cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
285.362.243.427
= 0,043 4,3%


145

cong ty BKBH nam 2005 co c 100 ong doanh thu mi tao c 4,3
ong li nhuan rong (li nhuan sau thue thu nhap doanh nghiep).
Ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san Ruturn on total assets ratio (ROA): Ch
tieu nay o lng kha nang sinh li tren 1 ong von au t vao cong ty.
Li nhuan rong
Ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san =
Toan bo tai san

12.284.055.606
Ty so sinh li tren tong tai san cua
cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
177.859.999.907
= 0,069 6,9%
Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan Return on equity ratio (ROE): ay la
ch tieu ma nha au t rat quan tam v no cho thay kha nang tao lai cua 1 ong
von ho bo ra e au t vao cong ty.
Li nhuan rong
Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan =
Von co phan

12.284.055.606
Ty so sinh li tren von co phan
cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
96.770.774.373
= 0,1269 12,69%
S khac nhau gia ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san va ty suat sinh li tren
von co phan cho thay cong ty a s dung von vay co hieu qua nen a khuech ai
c ty suat sinh li tren von co phan cao hn ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san.



146

e. Ty so gia th trng Market-value ratios
Cac nha au t co phan ac biet quan tam en vai gia tr ma co anh hng
manh en gia th trng cua co phan nh:
Thu nhap moi co phan Earning per share (EPS): Thu nhap moi co phan
la mot yeu to quan trong nhat, quyet nh gia tr cua co phan bi v no o lng
sc thu nhap cha ng trong mot co phan hay noi cac khac no the hieu thu
nhap nha au t co c do mua co phan.
Thu nhap rong cua co ong thng
Thu nhap moi co phan =
So lng co phan thng
Thu nhap rong cua co ong thng c tnh bang cach lay lai rong tr i
tien lai cua co phan u ai.
Tai cong ty BKBH ta co so lieu bo sung nh sau: so lng co phieu c
niem yet la 5.600.000 co phieu va toan bo eu la co phieu thng. Tong co tc
chi tra nam 2005 la 6.615.000.000 ong, vi gia th trng trong nam 2005 la
16.100 ong/co phieu, ta tnh c cac ch tieu:
12.284.055.606
Thu nhap moi co phan cua cong ty
BKBH nam 2005
=
5.600.000
= 2.194 ong
Ty suat chi tra co tc Payout ratio:
Co tc moi co phan
Ty le chi tra co tc =
Thu nhap moi co phan
Trong o:
Co tc moi co phan = Tong co tc


147

So lng co phan thng
Ch tieu chi tra co tc noi len cong ty chi tra phan ln thu nhap cho co ong
hay gi lai e tai au t. ay la mot nhan to quyet nh en gia tr th trng cua
co phan.
6.615.000.000
Co tc moi co phan cua cong ty
BKBH nam 2005
=
5.600.000
= 1.181,25 ong

1.181,25
Ty le chi tra co tc cua cong ty
BKBH nam 2005
=
2.194
= 0,5384 53,84%
T o ta tnh c ty le li nhuan gia lai = 100% - 53,84% = 46,16%
Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap Price-earning ratio (P/E)
Gia tr th trng moi co phan
Ty so gia th trng
tren thu nhap
=
Thu nhap moi co phan
ay cung la ch tieu ma nha au t rat quan tam v no the hien gia co phan
at hay re so vi thu nhap.
16.100
Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap
cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005
=
2.194
= 7,338 lan
ieu nay co ngha la gia co phan cua cong ty BKBH c ban gap 7,338
lan vi thu nhap hien hanh cua no.



148

Ty suat co tc Dividend yield
Co tc moi co phan
Ty suat co tc =
Gia tr th trng moi co phan

1.181,25
Ty suat co tc cua cong ty BKBH
nam 2005
=
16.100
= 0,0733 7,33%
ieu nay co ngha la co tc cua cong ty BKBH chiem 7,33% so vi gia th
trng cua co phan.
Nh ta a biet, thu nhap cua nha au t gom hai phan: co tc va chenh lech
gia do chuyen nhng co phan. Neu ty suat co tc cua mot co phan thap ieu o
cha han la xau bi v nha au t co the chap nhan ty le chi tra co tc thap e
danh phan ln li nhuan e tai au t. Ho mong i mot tang trng nhanh trong
co tc va hng c s chenh lech ln cua gia co phan.
5.2.3. Phng phap anh gia cac ty so tai chnh
a. Phng phap so sanh:
Cac ch so tai chnh se cung cap nhieu thong tin hn khi chung c so sanh
vi cac ch so co lien quan. Cac nha phan tch thng s dung cac dang so sanh
sanh:
So sanh vi cac cong ty hoat ong trong cung lnh vc: Ta co the so sanh
cac ch so tai chnh cua mot cong ty vi cac ch so tai chnh cua mot so cong ty
khac hoat ong trong cung lnh vc. Bang s so sanh nay se thay c v the cua
cong ty tren th trng, sc manh tai chnh cua cong ty so vi cac oi thu canh
tranh va giai thch c s thanh cong hay that bai cua cong ty.


149

Bang 5.5. Phan tch cac ch so tai chnh cua cong ty co phan BKBH vi cong
ty co phan TPK nam 2005

Ty so
Cong ty CP
BKBH
Cong ty CP
TPK
Ty so thanh toan hien hanh 1,31 2,4
Ty so thanh toan nhanh 0,51 0,92
Ky thu tien bnh quan 33,50 ngay 47 ngay
So vong quay hang ton kho 4,66 3,9
Hieu suat s dung tai san co nh 4,004 4,6
Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai san 1,604 1,82
Ty so n tren tai san 45,60% 47%
Ty so n tren von co phan 83,80% 88,7%
Kha nang thanh toan lai vay 6,175 6,7
Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu 4,3% 5,1%
Ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san 6,9% 9,28%
Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan 12,69% 17,56%
Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap 7,338 8,0




150

Phan tch theo xu hng Xem xet xu hng bien ong qua thi gian la mot
bien phap quan trong e anh gia cac ty so tr nen xau i hay ang phat trien
theo chieu hng tot ep, co the so sanh vi nam trc o, hoac theo doi s bien
ong qua nhieu nam. Ket qua s so sanh la thong tin rat can thiet cho ca ngi
quan tr cong ty lan nha au t.



















151

Hnh 5.1. Dien ta mot so ch so tai chnh cua cong ty BKBH thi gian qua
vi cong ty hoat ong trong cung lnh vc TPK
T s thanh ton nhanh
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
BKBH
TPK

T s n (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
BKBH
TPK


K thu tin bnh qun
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
BKBH
TPK

Hiu sut s dng ti sn (%)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
BKBH
TPK


T sut sinh li trn vn u t
(%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
BKBH
TPK

T sut sinh li trn vn c
phn (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
BKBH
TPK



152

b. Phan tch Dupont cac ty so tai chnh:
Hnh 5.2. S o phan tch Dupont cua cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005



















Tong n
1 -
Tong tai san
1 0,456
Nhan
Chia
Tr
Chia Chia
ROE
12,69%
ROA
6,9%
1y sout snh o
tron dounh tho
4,3%
Vong qouy
tu sun
1,604
Lu rong
12.284.055.606
Dounh tho
285.362.243.427
Dounh tho
285.362.243.427
1ong tu sun
177.859.999.907
1u sun oo dong
100.172.191.896
1u sun co dnh
71.262.466.516
1u sun khuc
6.425.341.49
5
Dounh tho
285.362.243.427

1ong ch ph
273.078.187.821
Cu von hung bun
216.460.252.898
Ch ph hout dong
49.791.463.334
Lu vuy
3.094.576.449
1hoo 1NDN
3.731.895.140
1on & duo to ngun hun
11.170.113.788
Khoun phu tho
26.583.506.752
Hung ton kho
61.231.246.530
1u sun oo dong khuc
1.187.324.827


153

Cac ty so tai chnh c trnh bay phan tren eu dang mot phan so.
ieu o co ngha la moi ty so tai chnh se tang hay giam tuy thuoc vao hai nhan
to: la mau so va t so cua phan so o. Mat khac cac ty so tai chnh con anh
hng lan nhau. Hay noi cach khac, mot ty so tai chnh luc nay c trnh bay
bang tch mot vai ty so tai chnh khac.
Ta co the lay ch tieu ty suat sinh li tren von co phan (ROE) lam v du:
Li nhuan rong
Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan =
Von co phan
Co the trnh bay ty suat sinh li tren von co phan di dang sau:
Doanh thu thuan Lai rong
Ty suat sinh li
tren von co phan
=
Von co phan
x
Doanh thu thuan
= Hieu suat s dung von co phan x Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu
Ap dung cong thc tren cho cong ty BKBH nam 2005:
Ty suat li nhuan tren von co phan (ROE) = 2,95 x 4,3% = 12,69%
Luc nay ta co the phan tch ty suat sinh li tren von co phan theo hai ty so:
hieu suat s dung von co phan va ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu.
Chi tiet hn na ta co the phan tch ty suat sinh li tren von co phan thanh
ba ty so nh sau:
Doanh
thu thuan
Tong
tai san
Li nhuan
rong
Ty suat sinh
li tren von
co phan
=
Tong tai
san
x
Von co
phan
x
Doanh thu
thuan


154


=
Hieu suat s
dung tong tai
san
x
Ty so tong
tai san tren
von co phan
x
Ty suat sinh
li tren
doanh thu
Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan (ROE) tai cong ty BKBH nam 2005:
= 1,604 x 1,838 x 4,3% = 12,69%

Qua phan tch tren cho thay ty suat sinh li tren von co phan cua mot cong
ty co the giai thch theo ba cach:
(1) S dung hieu qua tai san hien co
(2) Gia tang on bay tai chnh
(3) Tang ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu
Tren ay la v du n gian ve hai ch so anh hng en ty suat sinh li tren
von co phan. Chung ta co the trien khai cac quan he phc tap hn gom nhieu ch
so tac ong lan nhau va cuoi cung lam ty suat sinh li tren von co phan thay oi
nh the nao. Hnh 5.2. Se cho ta thay s o phan tch Dupont ve tnh hnh tai
chnh cua cong ty co phan BKBH. Qua s o nay chung ta thay c bc tranh
toan canh ve tnh hnh tai chnh cua cong ty trong o hau het cac ch so eu co
tng tac vi nhau.
5.2.4. Mot so van e gap phai khi phan tch ty so tai chnh
Mac du phan tch tai chnh la con ng sang gia e co c thong tin,
nhng khong han no khong gap phai nhng loi lam tiem an.
Th nhat, s khac biet gia gia tr so sach ke toan va gia th trng cua cac
loai tai san va nguon von nhat la trong ieu kien co lam phat cao. ieu nay a


155

bop meo cac bao cao tai chnh va keo theo tnh khong chnh xac cua cac ch so
tai chnh.
Th hai, do cac nguyen tac ke toan pho bien c s dung a lam cho viec
xac nh thu nhap cua cong ty khong ung vi gia tr that cua no. Chang han nh
viec ap dung phng phap khau hao nhanh a lam cho li nhuan cua nhng nam
au rat t hoac khong co. ieu nay khong han do cong ty lam an khong co hieu
qua.
Mac du vay, khong co ngha la viec phan tch bang cac ch so tai chnh
khong co y ngha. Nh a trnh bay: cac nha quan tr tai chnh, nha au t va
ngi cung cap tn dung co c thong tin ang ke qua cac ch so tai chnh nay.
Tom lai, khi c thiet lap mot cach chnh xac, khach quan, cac ch so tai
chnh se la nhng ngi dan ng cho cac nha quan tr va nhng ngi ben
ngoai cong ty nhan nh ve khuynh hng tng lai cua cong ty.

5.3. PHAN TCH BAO CAO DONG TIEN
5.3.1. Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc quoc te ve ke toan
International Accounting Standards)
Bao cao dong tien cho thay mot tom lc dong tien trong mot thi ky. Bao
cao dong tien oi khi con c goi la bao cao nguon va s dung nguon, the hien
mot cach nhn ve dong tien hoat ong, dong tien au t, va dong tien tai tr.
Nhng dong tien nhat quan vi nhng thay oi trong tien mat va chng khoan
th trng trong suot mot thi ky. Hnh 5.3 di ay minh hoa dong tien cua mot
doanh nghiep.
Hnh 5.3. Dong tien cua mot doanh nghiep


156












Cung nen chu y en chng khoan th trng, s d co ten goi nh the la bi
v chung co tnh thanh khoan cao va c xem nh la tien mat. Ca hai khoan
muc tien mat va chng khoan th trng c xem nh la mot ni hap thu cac
thanh khoan do nhng thay oi tang len hoac giam i trong tong dong tien thu
vao hoac chi ra cua doanh nghiep.
Dong tien cua doanh nghiep c hnh thanh t ba hoat ong:
(1) Hoat ong kinh doanh Dong tien hoat ong
(2) Hoat ong au t Dong tien au t
(3) Hoat ong tai tr (hoat ong tai chnh) Dong tien tai tr

Tien
mat va
chng
khoan
th
trng
Chi ph sa n
xuat chung
Cac khoan tham
gia au t cua
doanh nghiep
Khoan
phai tra
Thanh toan cac
khoa n tn dung
thng mai Thanh toan
chi ph thc
te phat sinh
Tai san co nh
San pham
d dang
Chi ph
lao o ng
Nguyen
vat lieu
N lng
phat sinh
Chi ph hoat o ng (bao
go m khau hao) va chi
ph lai vay
Thanh pham
N ngan han
va dai ha n
Von co pha n
Khoan
phai thu
Doanh so
ban hang
Thue
Mua
Vay
Ba n
Mua
Ban
Hoan tra
Ban co phieu
Mua co phieu
Thanh toan co tc
Thu t khoa n phai thu
Doanh thu bang tie n mat
Nop thue
Hoan thue
Kha u hao
(1) DONG TIEN HOAT ONG
(2) DONG TIEN AU T
(3) DONG TIEN TAI TR
Tien
mat va
chng
khoan
th
trng
Chi ph sa n
xuat chung
Cac khoan tham
gia au t cua
doanh nghiep
Khoan
phai tra
Thanh toan cac
khoa n tn dung
thng mai Thanh toan
chi ph thc
te phat sinh
Tai san co nh
San pham
d dang
Chi ph
lao o ng
Nguyen
vat lieu
N lng
phat sinh
Chi ph hoat o ng (bao
go m khau hao) va chi
ph lai vay
Thanh pham
N ngan han
va dai ha n
Von co pha n
Khoan
phai thu
Doanh so
ban hang
Thue
Mua
Vay
Ba n
Mua
Ban
Hoan tra
Ban co phieu
Mua co phieu
Thanh toan co tc
Thu t khoa n phai thu
Doanh thu bang tie n mat
Nop thue
Hoan thue
Kha u hao
(1) DONG TIEN HOAT ONG
(2) DONG TIEN AU T
(3) DONG TIEN TAI TR



157

Dong tien hoat ong la dong tien vao va ra, co lien quan trc tiep en viec
san xuat va tieu thu hang hoa hoac dch vu. Nhng dong tien nay co the thu thap
c t bao cao thu nhap (bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh) hoac tren cac giao dch
hien tai tren tai khoan ke toan phat sinh trong mot thi ky. Mac du viec vay n
thuoc dong tien tai tr nhng chi ph tra lai vay th lai nam trong dong tien hoat
ong. S d nh the la do ch ph tra lai vay c xem nh la cac chi ph e duy
tr cac hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep va c hach toan vao chi ph
trc khi tnh thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (Bang 5.6). Lu y la trong chuan mc
ke toan Viet Nam, cac dong tien lien quan en cac hoat ong mua ban chng
khoan v muc ch thng mai c phan loai la cac dong tien t hoat ong kinh
doanh.














158

Bang 5.6. Noi dung phan nh dong tien t hoat ong kinh doanh
Dong chi Dong thu
Tien chi tra cho ngi cung cap
hang hoa va dch vu
Tien thu c t viec ban hang va
cung cap dch vu
Tien chi tra cho ngi lao ong ve
tien lng, tien thng, tra ho
ngi lao ong ve bao hiem, tr
cap,...
Tien thu c t doanh thu khac
(tien thu ban quyen, ph, hoa
hong, va cac khoan khac tr cac
khoan thu c xac nh la luong
tien t hoat ong au t va hoat
ong tai tr)
Tien chi tra lai vay
Tien chi nop thue thu nhap doanh
nghiep
Tien thu do c hoan thue
Tien chi tra cong ty bao hiem ve
ph bao hiem, tien boi thng va
cac khoan tien khac theo hp
ong bao hiem

Tien chi tra do b phat, b boi
thng do doanh nghiep vi pham
hp ong kinh te
Tien thu do c khach hang vi
pham hp ong kinh te boi thng
Dong tien au t la dong tien gan vi viec mua va ban tai san co nh va
cac khoan tham gia au t cua doanh nghiep (bussiness interests). Thuat ng
tham gia au t ch ham y en cac khoan chi au t gop von va thu hoi von gop,
tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li nhuan nhan c.


159

Nh vay, cac khoan thu nhap (hoac chi ra) t viec ban cac cong cu n hoac
co phieu v muc ch thng mai khong c xem la dong tien au t.
Bang 5.7. Noi dung phan nh dong tien t hoat ong au t
Dong chi Dong thu
Tien chi e mua sam, xay dng tai
san co nh va cac tai san dai han
khac, bao gom ca nhng khoan
tien chi lien quan en chi ph trien
khai a c von hoa la tai san co
nh vo hnh.
Tien thu t viec thanh ly, nhng
ban tai san co nh va tai san dai
han khac.
Tien chi cho vay oi vi ben khac,
tr tien chi cho vay cua ngan
hang, to chc tn dung va cac to
chc tai chnh.
Tien thu hoi cho vay oi vi ben
khac, tr tien thu hoi cho vay cua
ngan hang, to chc tn dung va
cac to chc tai chnh.
Tien chi mua cac cong cu n cua
cac n v khac, tr trng hp
tien chi mua cac cong cu n c
coi la cac khoan tng ng tien
va mua cac cong cu n dung cho
muc ch thng mai.
Tien thu do ban lai cac cong cu n
cua cac n v khac, tr trng
hp thu tien t ban cac cong cu n
c coi la cac khoan tng ng
tien va ban cac cong cu n dung
cho muc ch thng mai.
Tien chi au t gop von vao n
v khac, tr trng hp tien chi
mua co phieu v muc ch thng
mai.
Tien thu hoi au t gop von vao
n v khac, tr trng hp tien
thu t ban lai co phieu a mua v
muc ch thng mai.

Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li
nhuan nhan c.




160

Dong tien tai tr (hoat ong tai chnh) la ket qua t cac quyet nh tai tr
bang von vay va von co phan trong cac quyet nh tai tr cua doanh nghiep. Cu
the cac hoat ong nay lien quan en dong tien t viec vay n va hoan tra khoan
vay (hoac la tren cac khoan n ngan han hoac la tren cac khoan n dai han) va
chung tao ra nhng thay oi tng ng trong dong tien thu vao va chi ra. Tng
t, viec ban co phieu se tao ra dong tien thu vao va thanh toan co tc cung nh
mua lai co phieu tao ra dong tien chi ra.
Bang 5.8. Noi dung phan nh dong tien t hoat ong tai tr
Dong chi Dong thu
Tien chi tra von gop cho cac chu
s hu, mua lai co phieu cua chnh
doanh nghiep a phat hanh.
Tien thu t viec phat hanh co
phieu, nhan von gop chu s hu.
Tien chi tra cac khoan n goc a
vay.
Tien thu t cac khoan i vay ngan
han, dai han.
Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh.
Co tc, li nhuan a tra cho chu
s hu.

Tong hp lai, dong tien hoat ong, dong tien au t va dong tien tai tr
trong mot thi ky nao o se tac ong en so d tien mat va chng khoan th
trng cua doanh nghiep.
a. Phan loai nguon va s dung tien mat
e co the lap bao cao dong tien chnh xac va de dang, au tien hay tom
lc bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat trong mot thi ky. Lu y rang bao cao
nguon va s dung tien mat chnh la cach tiep can au tien va tom lc nhat ve
bao cao dong tien.


161

Chang han neu nh cac khoan phai tra tang len 100 ong th nguon tien
mat thay oi la 100 ong va neu nh hang ton kho tang 2.500 ong th s dung
tien mat thay oi la 2.500 ong.
Sau ay la cach thc phan biet cac tang giam trong nguon va s dung tien
mat:
Bang 5.9. Nguyen tac phan nh Nguon va S dung tien mat
Nguon S dung tien mat
Giam trong tai san Tang trong tai san
Tang trong vay n Giam trong vay n
Li nhuan rong sau thue Lo rong
Khau hao va cac chi ph khong
bang tien mat khac
Chi tra co tc
Phat hanh co phieu
Mua lai hoac thu hoi lai co phieu
a phat hanh
Giam trong tai san se tao nguon tien mat cua doanh nghiep trong khi o
mot gia tang trong tai san lai la s dung tien mat.
Khau hao va cac chi ph khong bang tien mat c xem la dong tien cua
doanh nghiep va phai c cong tr lai li nhuan sau thue e co c
dong tien hoat ong sau thue.
Bi v khau hao c xem nh la mot nguon tien mat, cho nen ch co
nhng thay oi gop trong TSC, ch khong phai nhng thay oi rong, se
xuat hien trong bao cao dong tien e tranh tnh trung 2 lan.



162

Cac but toan trc tiep cua nhng thay oi trong li nhuan gi lai khong
c tnh trong dong tien. Thay vao o la nhng khoan muc co kha nang
tac ong en li nhuan gi lai se xuat hien, chang han nh la lai rong
hoac lo sau thue va co tc.
b. Trien khai bao cao dong tien
Bao cao dong tien co the c trien khai ra thanh 5 bc: Bc 1, 2 va 3 la
chuan b bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat. Bc 4, nhan cac d lieu can thiet
t bao cao thu nhap (bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh). Bc 5 phan loai va
a ra cac d lieu thch hp t bc 1 en bc 4. Tien trnh 5 bc nay se c
minh hoa thong qua trng hp bao cao dong tien cua cong ty VDEC vi so lieu
ban au thu thap c nh sau:














163

Bang 5.10. Bang can oi ke toan cong ty VDEC en ngay 31-12-2004
(n v tnh: trieu $)
TAI SAN Nam 2004 Nam 2003
1. Von bang tien 2.540 2.081
2. Chng khoan th trng 1.800 1.625
3. Cac khoan phai thu 18.320 16.850
4. Hang ton kho 27.530 26.470
TAI SAN LU ONG 50.190 47.026
5. Tai san co nh 31.700 30.000
TAI SAN CO NH 31.700 30.000
TONG TAI SAN 81.890 77.026
NGUON VON
6. Cac khoan phai tra 9.721 8.340
7. Vay ngan han ngan hang 8.500 5.635
8. N dai han en han tra 2.000 2.000
9. N ngan han khac 5.302 4.900
N NGAN HAN 25.523 20.875
10. N dai han 22.000 24.000
TONG N 47.523 44.875
11. Von co phan 34.367 32.151
TONG NGUON VON 81.890 77.026






164

Bang 5.11. Bao cao thu nhap cua cong ty VDEC en ngay 31-12-2004
(n v tnh: trieu $)
Khoan muc Nam 2004
1. Doanh thu thuan 112.760
2. Gia von hang ban 85.300
3. Lai gop 27.460
4. Chi ph hoat ong
Chi ph ban hang 6.540
Chi ph quan ly (trong o khau hao 250) 9.400
5. Toan bo chi ph hoat ong 15.940
6. Lai trc thue va lai vay (EBIT) 11.520
7. Lai vay 3.160
8. Lai trc thue 8.360
9. Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (40%) 3.344
10. Lai rong 5.016
11. Co tc co phan u ai 2.800
12. Thu nhap co phan thng 2.216
13. Li nhuan gi lai 1.329,6
14. So lng co phan thng (ngan co phan) 1.300
15. Gia tr th trng moi co phan ($) 20
16. Gia tr so sach moi co phan ($) 26,44
17. Thu nhap moi co phan (EPS - $) 1,705
18. Co tc moi co phan ($) 0,681




165

Bc 1: Tnh toan nhng thay oi tren bang can oi ke toan trong tai san,
cac khoan n va von co phan. (Chu y: tnh toan thay oi trong tai san co nh
gop cho tai khoan tai san co nh cung vi bat ky nhng thay oi nao trong khau
hao tch luy).
Bc 2: S dung phan loai trong Bang 5.9. e phan loai moi thay oi c
tnh trong bc 1 hoac la nguon (N), hoac la s dung (SD). Lu y la nhng thay
oi tang len trong khau hao tch luy c phan loai nh la nguon, va giam trong
khau hao tch luy la s dung. Nhng thay oi trong tai khoan von co phan c
phan loai cung nh cach phan loai cac khan n tang len la nguon va giam i la
s dung.
Bc 3: Tong hp tat ca nguon va s dung t bc 1 en bc 2. Neu bao
cao c chuan b mot cach chnh xac, th tong nguon se bang vi tong s dung.













166

Bang 5.12. Bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat cua cong ty VDEC vao cuoi
ngay 31-12-2004 (n v tnh: trieu $)
Phan loai
Tai san 2004 2003
Thay
oi N SD
1. Von bang tien 2.540 2.081 459 459
2. Chng khoan th trng 1.800 1.625 175 175
3. Cac khoan phai thu 18.320 16.850 1.470 1.470
4. Hang ton kho 27.530 26.470 1.060 1.060
Tai san lu ong 50.190 47.026 3.164
5. Tai san co nh gop 35.220 33.000 2.220 2.220
6. Khau hao -3.520 -3.000 -520 520
Tai san co nh 31.700 30.000 1.700
TONG TAI SAN 81.890 77.026 4.864
Nguon von
7. Cac khoan phai tra 9.721 8.340 1.381 1.381
8. Vay ngan han ngan hang 8.500 5.635 2.865 2.865
9. N dai han en han tra 2.000 2.000 0
10. N ngan han khac 5.302 4.900 402 402
N nga n han 25.523 20.875 4.648
11. N dai han 22.000 24.000 -2.000 2.000
Tong n 47.523 44.875 4.648
12. Von co phan 34.367 32.151 2.216
Co phan u ai 7.886,4 7.000 886,4 886,4
Co phan thng 1.300 1.300 0
Thang d von so vi me nh gia 22.751 22.751 0
Thu nhap gi lai 2.429,6 1.100 1.329,6 1.329,6
TONG NGUON VON 81.890 77.026 4.864
Tong cong 7.384 7.384


167

Bc 4: Chnh la qua trnh thu thap 3 so lieu nhap lng t bao cao thu
nhap e chuyen vao trong bao cao dong tien. Nhng nhap lng nay la (1) lai
rong sau thue (2) khau hao va bat ky nhng thay oi nao trong cac chi ph khong
bang tien mat va (3) thanh toan co tc tien mat.
Trong bc 4, lai rong sau thue va khau hao co the lay trc tiep t bao cao
thu nhap. Chang han lai rong sau thue va khau hao tren bao cao thu nhap la
5.016$ va 520$. Con co tc co the c tnh toan t phng trnh sau:
Co tc = lai sau thue thay oi trong li nhuan gi lai
Lai sau thue tap hp c t bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh con
thay oi trong li nhuan gi lai co the c tm thay trong bao cao nguon va s
dung tien mat, hoac bang cach s dung bang can oi ke toan au nam va cuoi
nam. Neu gia tr co tc la co san tren bao cao thu nhap, co the lay chung trc
tiep t ay.
Phan loai va trnh bay cac thong tin thch hp
Cac d kien thch hp t bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat trong cac bc
1, 2, va 3 cung vi lai rong, khau hao va co tc t bao cao thu nhap nhan c
trong bc 4 se c s dung e chuan b cho viec lap bao cao dong tien.








168

Bang 5.13. Phan loai nguon d lieu cua bao cao dong tien
Cac khoan muc va nguon d lieu Nguon d lieu*
Dong tien hoat ong
Lai rong (hoac lo) sau thue BCTN
Khau hao hoac chi ph khong bang tien mat khac BCTN
Thay oi trong tong tai san ngan han ngoai tr khoan
vay ngan han
N&SD
Dong tien au t
Thay oi trong nguyen gia tai san co nh N&SD
Thay oi trong cac khoan tham gia au t cua DN N&SD
Dong tien tai tr (hoat ong tai chnh)
Thay oi trong vay ngan han N&SD
Thay oi trong n vay dai han N&SD
Thay oi trong von co phan ngoai tr thu nhap gi lai N&SD
Chi tra co tc BCTN
*N&SD: Bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat. BCTN: Bao cao thu nhap
Bc 5: Phan loai toan bo cac d kien thch hp thanh 1 trong 3 dong tien:
(1) Dong tien hoat ong
(2) Dong tien au t
(3) Dong tien tai tr



169

Bang cach xem Bang 5.12, chung ta se phat hien tat ca nhng thay oi
trong tai san lu ong (tr cac khoan tien mat va chng khoan th trng do
chung tng trng cho dong tien thuan con lai cuoi cung trong mot thi ky) va
n ngan han (ngoai tr cac khoan vay ngan han).
Cac nguon tien mat va lai sau thue cung vi khau hao c xem nh la cac
gia tr dng the hien dong tien thu vao. Trong khi o tat ca cac khoan s dung
va lo cung vi co tc la cac gia tr am the hien dong tien chi ra. Tong hp tat ca
cac dong tien hoat ong, au t va tai tr chung ta se nhan c ket qua tang
hoac giam thuan trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng. Khi kiem tra lai,
chung ta se thay con so nay la nhat quan vi thay oi that s trong tien mat va
chng khoan th trng ma chung ta tnh c t so au ky va cuoi ky tren bang
can oi ke toan hoac t tren bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat trong ky.
c. Phng phap lap bao cao dong tien hoat ong
Doanh nghiep phai bao cao dong tien hoat ong theo mot trong hai phng
phap sau:
Phng phap gian tiep
Phng phap trc tiep
Con oi vi dong tien au t va dong tien tai tr th lap theo phng phap
trc tiep.
Phng phap gian tiep: Phng phap gian tiep thng cac nha quan tr tai
chnh chuyen nghiep la chon v cach lam ngan gon (xem ket qua trong Bang
5.14). Khi thc hanh trong thc te, do so lieu tren bao cao thu nhap la tong li
nhuan t cac hoat ong cua doanh nghiep nen chung ta nh lay tong li nhuan
va ieu chnh cho cac khoan sau:


170

Cac khoan doanh thu, chi ph khong phai bang tien nh khau hao tai
san co nh, cac khoan d phong.
Lai lo, chenh lech ty gia hoi oai cha thc hien
Cac khoan thay oi trong ky cua hang ton kho, cac khoan phai thu va
khoan phai tra t hoat ong kinh doanh.
Lai lo t hoat ong au t.
Phng phap gian tiep bat au t:
Li nhuan rong tren bao cao thu nhap,
Sau o ieu chnh cac khoan hach toan thu chi khong bang tien mat
(khau hao, trch lap d phong, anh gia lai tai san, chenh lech ty gia
hoi oai),
Loai tr cac khoan lai t hoat ong au t va hoat ong tai tr,
Sau o ieu chnh nhng thay oi cua tai san lu ong (tang, giam)
tren bang can oi ke toan e i en dong tien rong t hoat ong kinh
doanh.









171

Bang 5.14. Bao cao dong tien cua cong ty VDEC nam 2004 (trong o dong
tien hoat ong c lap theo phng phap gian tiep)
Dong tien hoat ong
Li nhuan rong (hoac lo) sau thue 5.016
Khau hao 520
Tang cac khoan phai thu -1.470
Tang hang ton kho -1.060
Tang khoan phai tra 1.381
Giam cac khoan phai tra khac 0
Tong dong tien hoat ong 4.387
Dong tien au t
Tang nguyen gia tai san co nh -2.220
Thay oi trong cac khoa n tham gia au t cua doanh nghiep 0
Tong dong tien au t -2.220
Dong tien tai tr
Tang vay ngan han 2.865
Tang vay ngan han khac 402
Giam n dai han -2.000
Thay oi trong von co phan ngoai tr li nhuan gi lai 886,4
Chi tra co tc -3.686,4
Tong dong tien tai tr -1.533
Gia tang rong trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng 634





172

Phng phap trc tiep:
Theo phng phap nay cac ch tieu phan anh cac dong tien vao va cac dong
tien ra c xac nh theo mot trong 2 cach sau ay:
Phan tch va tong hp trc tiep cac khoan tien thu va chi theo tng noi dung
thu, chi t cac ghi chep ke toan cua doanh nghiep.
ieu chnh doanh thu, gia von hang ban va cac khoan muc khac trong bao
cao hoat ong kinh doanh cho:
Cac thay oi trong ky cua hang ton kho, cac khoan phai thu va cac
khoan phai tra t hoat ong kinh doanh;
Cac khoan muc khong phai bang tien khac.
Cac dong tien lien quan en hoat ong au t va hoat ong tai tr.
Sau ay la bao cao dong tien cua VDEC nam 2004 c lap theo phng
phap trc tiep (Bang 5.15)
Thu tien ban hang = Doanh thu ban hang + (thay oi trong khoan ng trc
cua khach hang ) (thay oi trong khoan phai thu) = 112.760$ + (0) 1.470$=
111.290$.
Chi tien mua hang = Gia von hang ban + (thay oi trong hang ton kho)
(thay oi trong khoan phai tra ngi ban) = 85.300$ + 1.060$ - 1.381$ = 84.979$
Chi tra chi ph hoat ong (thc s bang tien) = Chi ph hoat ong + (thay
oi trong chi ph tra trc) (thay oi trong chi ph phai tra) = (15.940$ - 520$)
+ (0$) (0$) = 15.420$
Chi tra thue thu nhap = Thue phai tra trong ky + (thay oi trong khoan thue
tra trc) (thay oi trong khoan thue phai tra) = 3.344$ + (0$) (0$) = 3.344$


173

Chi ph tra lai vay = Chi ph tra lai vay + (thay oi trong khoan lai vay tra
trc) (thay oi trong khoan lai vay phai tra) = 3.160$ + (0$) (0$) = 3.160$
Bang 5.15. Bao cao dong tien cua VDEC nam 2004 (trong o dong tien hoat
ong c lap theo phng phap trc tiep).
Dong tien hoat ong
Thu tien ban hang 111.290
Chi tien mua hang -84.979
Chi tra chi ph hoat ong -15.420
Chi tra thue thu nhap doanh nghiep -3.344
Chi tra lai vay -3.160
Tong dong tien hoat ong 4.387
Dong tien au t
Tang nguyen gia tai san co nh -2.220
Thay oi trong cac khoan au t cua doanh nghiep 0
Tong dong tien au t -2.220
Dong tien tai tr
Tang vay ngan han 2.865
Tang vay ngan han khac 402
Giam n dai han -2.000
Thay oi trong von co phan ngoai tr li nhuan gi lai 886,4
Chi tra co tc -3.686,4
Tong dong tien tai tr -1.533
Gia tang rong trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng 634




174

5.3.2. Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc KTVN VAS)
a. Lap bao cao dong tien theo phng phap trc tiep:
Bang 5.16. Bang hng dan lap bao cao cao dong tien theo phng phap trc tiep
oi chieu tai
khoan Ch tieu Noi dung
Ma
so
TK N TK Co
I. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong
kinh doanh

1. Tien thu t ban hang, cung cap dch vu va doanh thu khac (1)+(2)+(3)-
(4)
01
(+) 1- Thu tien ngay
- Thu tien ban hang hoa
111,112,
113
5111
33311
-Thu tien ban thanh pham
111,112,
113
5112
33311
- Thu tien cung cap dch vu
111,112,
113
5113
33311
2 - Thu cua ky trc

- Thu t hoat ong kinh doanh ban
san pham, hang hoa +tien ng trc
cua ngi mua hang hoa, dch vu.

111,112,
113
131
3- Doanh thu nhan trc (neu co)
111,112,
113
3387
4 - Cac khoan giam tr
- Chiet khau thng mai 521 111,112
33311
- Giam gia hang ban 532 111,112
33311
...
2. Tien chi tra cho ngi cung cap hang hoa va dch vu (1)+(2) 02
(-) 1- Tra tien ngay

- Tra tien mua nguyen, nhien vat
lieu, hang hoa

152,153,
156,
13311
111,
112


175

- Tra chi ph dch vu mua ngoa i
6278,
642,641,
13311
111,
112
- Chi ph bang tien khac
627,
641,642,
13311
111,
112
2 - Phai tra cua ky tr c

- Chi tien tra cho ca c khoan n lien
quan en cac giao dch mua ban
hang hoa, dch vu phat sinh t ky
trc nhng ky nay mi tra tien va
so tien chi ng trc cho nha cung
cap hang hoa, dch vu
331 111,112
3. Tien chi tra cho ngi lao ong 03
(-) Tam ng, thanh toan tien lng 334 111,112
4. Tien chi tra la i vay 04
(-)
Chi tra lai vay (khong phan biet tra
cho ky trc, tra trong ky va tra
trc la i vay)
635, 335
111,112
,113
5. Tien chi nop thue Thu nhap
doanh nghiep
05
(-)
Chi nop thue TNDN (khong phan
biet so thue TNDN a nop cua ky
nay, so thue TNDN con n t cac
ky trc a nop trong ky nay va so
thue TNDN nop trc (neu co))
3334
111,112
,113
6. Tien thu khac t hoat ong kinh
doanh
06
(+)
Thu ve boi thng, c phat, tien
thng, cac khoan tien thu khac...
111,112
711,
33311

Thu hoi cac khoan a i ky quy,
ky cc
111,112 144
Tien thu do nhan ky quy, ky cc 111,112 344
Tien thu do c hoan thue 111,112 133
7. Tien chi kha c cho hoat ong
kinh doanh
07
(-)
Chi ve boi thng b phat, ca c
khoan chi ph khac

811,
13311
111,112
Tien chi a i ky quy, ky cc 144 111,112


176


Tien tra cac khoan nhan ky cc,
ky quy
344 111,112

Tien chi t quy khen thng, phuc
li
431 111,112

Tien nop cac loai thue (khong bao
gom thue TNDN,tien nop cac loai
ph, le ph, tien thue at

3331,
3333,
3337,
3338
111,112
Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat
ong kinh doanh

Ma 20 = Ma 01+ Ma 02+Ma
03+Ma 04+Ma 05+Ma 06+Ma 07
20
II. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong
au t

1.Tien chi e mua sam, xay dng
TSC va cac ta i san dai han
khac
21
2.Tien thu t thanh ly, nhng ban
TSC va cac tai san da i han
khac
22
3. Tien chi cho vay, mua ca c cong
cu n cua n v khac
23
4.Tien thu hoi cho vay, ban la i cac
cong cu n cua n v khac
24
5. Tien chi au t gop von vao n
v khac
25
6. Tien thu hoi au t gop von vao
n v khac
26
7. Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va
li nhuan c chia
27
Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat
ong au t

30
III. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong
tai chnh

1.Tien thu t phat hanh co phieu,
nhan von gop cua chu s hu
31
2.Tien chi tra von gop cho cac chu
s hu, mua lai co phieu cua
doanh nghiep a phat hanh
32


177

3. Tien vay ngan han, dai han
nhan c
33
4. Tien chi tra n goc vay 34
5. Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh 35
6. Co tc, l i nhuan a tra cho chu
s hu
36
Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat
ong tai chnh

40
Lu chuyen tien thuan trong ky
(20+30+40)
50
Tien va tng ng tien au ky 60
anh hng cua thay oi ty gia hoi
oai quy oi ngoai te
61
Tien va tng ng tien cuoi ky 70
Ghi chu: Cac nghiep vu khong thng xuyen
Ma so 01:
Tien thu t ban hang hoa, cung cap dch vu chuyen tra ngay cac khoan
cong n: N TK331/Co TK511, Co TK333.
Tien ban quyen, ph, hoa hong va cac khoan doanh thu khac (nh ban
chng khoan v muc ch thng mai) N TK111,112,113/Co TK511-
doanh thu khac.
Ma so 02:
Chi tien t thu cac khoan phai thu cua khach hang N
TK152,153,156,331,62../Co TK131
Chi tien t tien vay ngan han nhan c chuyen tra ngay cho ngi ban
N TK152,153,156,331,62../Co TK311
Ma so 04:


178

Chi tra lai vay t tien thu cac khoan phai thu khach hang chi tra lai vay
ngay N TK635,335/Co TK131.
Ma so 05: Chi tien nop thue TNDN t tien thu cac khoan phai thu cua cac khach
hang N TK3334/Co TK131
b. Lap bao cao dong tien theo phng phap gian tiep:
Bang 5.17. Bang hng dan lap bao cao cao dong tien theo phng phap gian tiep
oi chieu tai khoan
Ch tieu Noi dung
Ma
so TK N TK Co


I. Lu chuyen tien t hoat
ong kinh doanh

1. L i nhuan trc thue 01
(+) La i 911 4212
(-) Lo 4212 911
2. ieu chnh cho cac khoan
- Khau hao TSC 02
(+)
So khau hao TSC a trch vao chi
ph san xuat, kinh doanh trong ky
bao cao

627,641,
642
214
- Cac khoan d phong 03
(+)
Ca c khoan d phong giam gia c
trch lap vao chi ph san xuat kinh
doanh trong ky


-D phong giam gia au t ngan
han, da i han
635 129, 229
- D phong phai thu kho oi 642 139
- D phong giam gia hang ton kho 632 159
(-)
Hoan nhap cac khoan d phong
trong ky


- D phong giam gia au t ngan
han, da i han
129,229 515
- D phong phai thu kho oi 139 711
- D phong giam gia hang ton kho 159 711
- Lai, lo chenh lech ty gia hoi 04


179

oai cha thc hien
(-) La i chenh lech ty gia hoi oai 413 515
(+) Lo chenh lech ty gia hoi oai 635 413
- Lai, lo t hoat ong au t 05
(-)
1 - Pha n thu thanh ly, nh ng ban
TSC

111, 112,
113,131,
138
711, 515,
33311
111, 112 131
(+)
2 - Pha n chi thanh ly, nhng ba n
TSC

811, 635,
13311
111, 112,
113,331,
338

3 - Lai/ lo ve thanh ly, nhng ban
TSC (1 + 2)


(-)
Li nhuan c chia t khoan au
t von vao n v khac

111,112,1
38,222..
515
(-) nh ky thu lai tn phieu, trai phieu
111,112
121,221
515
- Chi ph lai vay 06
(+)
Chi ph la i vay phat sinh va a ghi
nhan vao ket qua kinh doanh trong
ky
635
111,112,
341,311..
3. Li nhuan t hoa t o ng kinh
doanh trc thay oi vo n lu
o ng
Ma 08 = ma 01+ma 02+ma 03+ma
04+ma 05+ma 06
08
- Tang giam cac khoan phai
thu
09
Phai thu khach hang
Hie u so>0 (-); hie u so <0 (+)
Chenh le ch so d cuoi ky (SDCK) va
so d a u ky (SDDK) pha i thu kha ch
hang (ma 131)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK131

ie u chnh pha i thu khach ha ng
(+)
Phai thu lie n quan en thanh ly
TSC
131
711, 515,
33311
(-)
Thu tie n lien quan e n thanh ly
TSC
111,112 131
Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK tra trc
cho ngi ban (ma 132)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK331



180

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK pha i thu
noi bo (ma 134)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK136

Phai thu khac
Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK pha i thu
khac (ma 138)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK138

ie u chnh pha i thu khac
(+)
Phai thu lie n quan en thanh ly
TSC
138
711, 515,
33311
(-)
Thu tie n lien quan e n thanh ly
TSC
111,112 138
(+) Phai thu co t c, l i nhuan c chia 138
515,
33311
Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK Thue
GTGT c khau tr (ma 133)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK133

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK ta m ng
(ma 151)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK141

- Tang giam hang ton kho 10
Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK hang
mua ang i tren ng (ma 141)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK151

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK nguyen
vat lieu ton kho (ma 142)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK152

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK cong cu,
dung cu trong kho (ma 143)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK153

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK chi ph
SXKDDD (ma 144)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK154

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK thanh
pham (ma 145)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK155

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK hang hoa
ton kho (ma 146)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK156



181

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK hang gi
i ban (ma 147)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK157

- Tang giam cac khoan phai
tra (khong ke lai vay phai tra,
thue thu nhap phai nop)
11
Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK pha i tra
cho ngi ban (ma 313)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK331
Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK ngi
mua tra tien trc (ma 314)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK131

Thue va ca c khoan phai nop nha
nc

Hie u so>0 (+); hie u so <0 (-)
Chenh le ch SDCK-SDDK Thue va
cac khoa n pha i no p nha nc (ma
315)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK333

ie u chnh thue thu nhap doanh
nghie p

(-)
Thue thu nhap doanh nghie p pha i
tra
421 3334
(+)
Chi no p thue TNDN (khong phan
bie t so thue TNDN a nop cu a ky
nay, so thue TNDN co n n t cac ky
tr c a nop trong ky na y va so thue
TNDN no p tr c (neu co ))
3334
111,112,
113
Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK Pha i tra
cong nhan vien (ma 316)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK334
Chi ph phai tra TK 335:
Hie u so>0 (+); hie u so <0 (-)
- Chenh le ch SDCK-SDDK chi ph
pha i tra (ma 331)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK335
-ieu chnh chi ph phai tra 335:
(-)
Chi ph la i vay pha t sinh va a ghi
nha n va o ke t qua kinh doanh trong
ky
635
111,112,
341,311..
(+)
Chi tra lai vay (khong phan bie t tra
cho ky trc, tra trong ky va tra
335,635
111,112,
113


182

tr c lai vay)
Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK pha i tra
noi bo (ma 317)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK336
Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK cac
khoan phai tra, phai nop khac (ma
318)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK338

- Tang giam Chi ph tra trc 12
Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK chi ph
tra trc (ma 152)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK142

Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+)
Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK chi ph
tra trc dai han (ma 241)

(SDCK-
SDDK)
TK242

- Tien lai vay a tra 13
(-)
Chi tra lai vay (khong phan biet tra
cho ky trc, tra trong ky va tra
trc la i vay)
335,635
111,112,
113

- Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep
a nop
14
(-)
Chi nop thue TNDN (khong phan
biet so thue TNDN a nop cua ky
nay, so thue TNDN con n t cac
ky trc a nop trong ky nay va so
thue TNDN nop trc (neu co))
3334
111,112,
113
- Tien thu khac t hoat ong
kinh doanh
15
(+) Tien thu do nhan ky quy, ky cc 111,112 344
(+)
Thu hoi cac khoan a i ky quy,
ky cc
111,112 144, 244
(+)
Tien t cac to chc ca nhan ben
ngoai thng, ho tr ghi tang quy
doanh nghiep
111,112 431,4..
- Tien chi khac t hoat ong
kinh doanh
16
(-)
Tien tra cac khoan nhan ky cc,
ky quy
344 111,112


183

(-) Tien chi a i ky quy, ky cc 144, 244 111,112
(-)
Tien chi trc tiep t quy khen
thng, phuc li va cac quy khac
431, 4.. 111,112
Lu chuyen tie n thuan t hoat
o ng kinh doanh
Ma 08+ ma 09+ ma 10+ma 11+ma
12+ma 13+ma 14 +ma 15 +ma 16
20

II. Lu chuyen tien t hoat
ong au t

1.Tien chi e mua sam, xay
dng TSC va cac ta i san dai
han khac
21
(-) - Chi tien mua sam TSC 211
111,112,
113
(-)
- ng tien cho nha thau, nha cung
cap au t TSC va cac TS dai han
khac
331
111,112,
113
(-)
- Chi ph xay dng c ban pha t sinh
bang tien
241, 1332 111, 112
2.Tien thu t thanh ly, nhng
ban TSC va ca c tai san dai
han khac
22
(+)
1 - Phan thu thanh ly, nhng ban
TSC

111, 112,
113
711, 515,
33311
111, 112 131, 138
(-)
2 - Phan chi thanh ly, nhng ban
TSC

811, 635,
13311
111, 112,
113
331, 338
111, 112,
113

3 - Chenh lech thu chi ve thanh ly,
nhng ban TSC (1 + 2)

3.Tien chi cho vay, mua cac
cong cu n cua n v khac
23
(-) Chi cho doanh nghiep khac vay 128, 228 111, 112
(-)
Chi mua tra i phieu, tn phieu, ky
phieu
121, 221 111, 112
4.Tien thu hoi cho vay, ban lai
ca c cong cu n cua n v
khac
24
(+)


184

Thanh toan n goc trai phieu, tn
phieu, ky phieu
111, 112 121, 221
(+)
Thu hoi n goc cac doanh nghiep
khac vay
111, 112 128, 228
(+)
Tien thu do ban lai trai phieu, tn
phieu, ky phieu
111, 112 121, 221
5. Tien chi au t gop von vao
n v khac
25
(-)
Gop von vao cac doanh nghiep
khac

221,
222,128,
228
111,112,
113
6. Tien thu hoi au t gop von
vao n v khac
26
(+)
Thu hoi gop von vao cac doanh
nghiep khac

111,
112,113
221,222,
128,228
7. Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va
li nhuan c chia
27
(+) Thu lai tien gi ngan hang 111, 112
515,
33311
(+)
Thu co tc, li nhuan c chia
(neu co)
111, 112
515,
33311

Lu chuyen tie n thuan t hoat
o ng au t

Ma so 30= ma 21+ ma 22+ ma
23+ma 24+ma 25+ma 26+ma 27
30

III. Lu chuyen tien t hoat
ong tai chnh

1.Tien thu t pha t hanh co
phieu, nhan von gop cua chu
s hu
31

Tien thu do nhan von trc tiep t
NSNN hoac do cac chu s hu gop
von
111, 112 411
Nhan cap phat von au t XDCB 111, 112 414
2.Tien chi tra von gop cho cac
chu s hu, mua lai co phieu
cua DN a phat hanh


32

(-)


185

Hoan tra von trc tiep cho NSNN
hoac chu s hu
411 111, 112
3. Tien vay ngan han, dai han
nhan c
33

Nhan tien vay ngan han t cac to
chc tn dung
111, 112 311

Nhan tien vay dai han t ca c to
chc tn dung
111, 112 341
4. Tien chi tra n goc vay 34

Tra tien vay ngan han cho cac to
chc tn dung
311
111, 112,
113

Tra tien vay dai han cho cac to
chc tn dung
341, 315 111,112
5. Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh 35
6. Co tc, li nhuan a tra cho
chu s hu
36
Lu chuyen tie n thuan t hoat
o ng ta i chnh
40
Lu chuyen tien thuan trong
ky (20+30+40)
50
Tien va tng ng tien au
ky
60
anh hng cua thay oi ty gia
hoi oai quy oi ngoai te
61
Tien va tng ng tien cuoi
ky (50+60+61)

70
Lay so lieu v du tai cong ty co phan BKBH e thiet lap bao cao dong tien
vao ngay 31-12-2005, au tien chung ta thiet lap bang phan biet nguon va s
dung dong tien nh sau:






186

Bang 5.18. Bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat cua cong ty co phan BKBH
vao cuoi ngay 31-12-2005 (n v tnh: ong)
Thay oi
TAI SAN Nam 2004 Nam 2005
Nguon S dung
A. TAI SAN NGAN HAN 91.310.598.011 100.172.191.896
I. Tien va ca c khoan tng ng tien 7.529.033.775 11.170.113.788
1. Tien 7.529.033.775 11.170.113.788 3.641.080.013
2. Ca c khoan tng ng tien
II. Cac khoan au t tai chnh ngan
han
0
1. au t ngan han
2. D phong giam gia au t ngan han
(*)

III. Cac khoan phai thu 24.005.549.325 26.583.506.752
1. Phai thu cua khach hang 22.108.789.872 25.540.870.164 3.432.080.292
2. Tra trc cho ngi ban 949.748.245 452.810.246 496.937.999
3. Phai thu noi bo ngan han
4. Phai thu theo tien o ke hoach hp
ong XD

5. Ca c khoan phai thu khac 1.089.225.122 732.040.256 357.184.866
6. D phong cac khoan phai thu kho oi
(*)
(142.213.914) (142.213.914)
IV. Hang ton kho 58.485.823.029 61.231.246.530
1. Hang ton kho 58.485.823.029 61.566.390.183 3.080.567.154
2. D phong giam gia hang ton kho (*) (335.143.653) 335.143.653
V. Tai san ngan han khac 1.290.191.882 1.187.324.827
1. Chi ph tra trc ngan han 437.920.581 299.635.840 138.284.741
2. Thue GTGT c khau tr 126.458.605 60.962.500 65.496.105
3. Thue va ca c khoan khac phai thu Nha
nc

4. Tai san ngan han khac 725.812.696 826.726.487 100.913.791


187

B. TAI SAN DAI HAN 68.223.689.500 77.687.808.011
I- Cac khoan phai thu dai han 0
1. Phai thu dai han cu a khach hang
2. Von kinh doanh n v trc thuoc
3. Phai thu dai han noi bo
4.Phai thu dai han khac
5. D phong phai thu dai han kho oi (*)
II. Tai san co nh 64.780.218.934 71.262.466.516
1. Tai san co nh hu hnh 63.390.053.816 63.063.651.743
- Nguyen gia 147.994.221.805 155.971.514.719 7.977.292.914
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) (84.604.167.989) (92.907.862.977) 8.303.694.988
2. Tai san co nh thue tai chnh 0
- Nguyen gia
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*)
3. Tai san co nh vo hnh 188.540.376 256.080.000
- Nguyen gia 256.080.000 256.080.000
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) (67.539.624) 0 67.539.624
4. Chi ph xay dng c ban d dang 1.201.624.742 7.942.734.773 6.741.110.031
III. Bat ong san au t 0
- Nguyen gia
- Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*)
IV. Cac khoan au t tai chnh dai
han
3.719.715.000
1. au t vao Cong ty con
2. au t vao Cong ty lien doanh, lien
ket.

3. au t dai han khac 3.719.715.000 3.719.715.000
4. D phong giam gia CK au t dai han
(*)

V. Chi ph tra tr c dai han 3.443.470.566 2.705.626.496
1. Chi ph tra trc dai han 3.443.470.566 2.705.626.496 737.844.071
2. Tai san thue thu nhap hoan lai


188

3. Tai san da i han khac
TONG CONG TAI SAN 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907
NGUON VON
A. N PHAI TRA 78.804.586.416 81.089.225.534
I. N NGAN HAN 76.153.983.885 76.178.751.003
1. Vay va n ngan han 30.107.038.869 23.328.613.425 6.778.425.444
2. Phai tra ngi ban 31.162.205.704 45.173.117.606 14.010.911.902
3. Ngi mua tra tien trc 350.021.544 0 350.021.544
4. Thue va ca c khoan phai nop Nha
nc
4.426.568.833 2.395.570.134 2.030.998.699
5. Phai tra ngi lao ong 1.146.277.875 2.059.902.233 913.624.358
6. Chi ph phai tra 2.579.458.989 1.665.988.532 913.470.457
7. Phai tra noi bo
8. Phai tra theo tien o ke hoach hp
ong xay dng

9. Ca c khoan phai tra, phai nop ngan
han khac
6.382.412.071 1.555.559.073 4.826.852.998
10. D phong phai tra ngan han
II. N dai han 2.650.602.531 4.910.474.531
1. Phai tra dai han ngi ban
2. Phai tra dai han noi bo
3. Phai tra dai han khac 2.650.602.531 2.910.474.531 259.872.000
4. Vay va n dai han 2.000.000.000 2.000.000.000
5. Thue thu nhap hoan la i pha i tra
6. D phong tr cap mat viec lam
7. D phong phai tra dai han
B. NGUON VON CHU S HU 80.729.701.095 96.770.774.373
I. Von chu s hu 80.468.244.095 96.553.769.887
1. Von au t cua chu s hu 84.312.185.344 56.000.000.000
28.312.185.34
4
2. Thang d von co phan 27.382.833.351 27.382.833.351
3. Von khac cua chu s hu


189

4. Co phieu ngan quy (6.588.010.602) 0 6.588.010.602
5. Chenh lech anh gia la i ta i san
6. Chenh lech ty gia hoi oai 0
7. Quy au t phat trien 1.967.555.390 1.967.555.390 0
8. Quy d phong tai chnh 494.325.540 494.325.540 0
9. Quy khac thuoc von chu s hu
10. Li nhuan cha phan phoi 282.188.423 10.709.055.606 10.426.867.183
11. Nguon von au t XDCB
II. NGUON KINH PH VA QuY
KHAC
261.457.000 217.004.486
1. Quy khen thng va phuc li 261.457.000 217.004.486 44.452.514
2. Nguon kinh ph
3.Nguon kinh ph a hnh thanh TSC
TONG CONG NGUON VO N 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907
Tong cong 72.016.705.818 72.016.705.818
T bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat cua cong ty, chung ta ket hp vi 3
bang khac la: Bang can oi ke toan, bang can oi tai khoan, bang bao cao ket
qua hoat ong kinh doanh e lap ra bang bao cao luan chuyen tien te (bao cao
dong tien hoan chnh), xem bang bao cao luan chuyen tien te cua cong ty co
phan BKBH nam 2005 (Bang 5.4).
5.3.3. Phng phap phan tch bao cao dong tien
Bao cao dong tien se hu ch cho cac nha quan tr tai chnh va nhng ngi
co quan tam phan tch c dong tien cua doanh nghiep. Cac nha quan ly co the
chu y ac biet ti nhng phan loai chnh tren dong tien, hoac nhng khoan muc
rieng biet tren dong tien thu vao va chi ra e anh gia xem cac chnh sach tai
chnh cua doanh nghiep co mau thuan vi nhau hay khong.




190

Ngoai ra, bao cao dong tien con c s dung e anh gia cac qua trnh
nham at c nhng muc tieu a c hoach nh. Bao cao nay khong tm cach
lam cho tng ng cu the gia dong tien va dong tien chi ra, nhng chung co the
c s dung e nhan dien nhng g mau thuan va ang chu y. Chang han nh
nhng gia tang trong cac khoan phai thu va hang ton kho tao ra cac dong tien chi
ra co the la mot dau hieu ve cac van e lien quan en tn dung va hang ton kho,
theo nhieu nha phan tch va nghien cu tai chnh, mot so he so thng dung e
phan tch tnh hnh lu chuyen tien te nh:
He so dong tien vao cua tng hoat ong so vi tong dong tien vao
(Individual sources of cash inflow / Total cash inflow);
He so dong tien ra e tra n dai han so vi tong dong tien vao (Cash
outflow for long-term debt repayment / Total cash inflow);
He so dong tien ra e chi tra co tc so vi dong lu chuyen rong t
hoat ong kinh doanh chnh (Dividends / Cash flow from operations).
a. He so dong tien vao t hoat ong kinh doanh so vi tong dong tien vao:
He so nay cung cap cho ngi oc mot ty le, mc o ve nang lc tao ra
nguon tien t hoat ong kinh doanh chnh cua doanh nghiep. Thong thng, ty le
nay chiem rat cao (tren 80%) va la nguon tien chu yeu dung trang trai cho hoat
ong au t dai han va tra co tc cung nh cac khoan vay ngan han, dai han.
Tuy nhien, khi phan tch can at chung trong mot boi canh cu the; chien lc va
tnh hnh kinh doanh tng thi ky.
Mot cach phan tch thng lien he la mang he so ky thc hien so vi cac ky
trc e thay xu hng tang trng hay s on nh va so vi cac doanh nghiep
tieu bieu cung nganh hay ch tieu bnh quan nganh e o lng s bien ong
chung ve tnh hnh kinh doanh va ac iem dong ngan lu.


191

b. He so dong tien vao t hoat ong au t so vi tong dong tien vao:
Hoat ong au t khong ke en au t tai san co nh la net ac trng cua
doanh nghiep trong nen kinh te th trng. Tien te luon c tnh toan theo gia
tr thi gian time value of money, moi ong tien eu co moi trng lu chuyen
thong suot trong o chu yeu la th trng chng khoan. Ngoai ra, doanh nghiep
thng au t vao cac lnh vc dai han khac: au t kinh doanh bat ong san,
cho thue dai han tai san co nh, lien doanh, hun von, nham muc ch tm kiem
nguon thu nhap on nh lau dai.
Dong ngan lu ra e gia tang cac khoan au t, ngc lai mot s thu hoi
cac khoan au t se the hien tren bao cao lu chuyen tien te la cac dong ngan
lu vao. Tuy thuoc vao tnh hnh kinh doanh va cac khoan au t enn han thu
hoi, he so phan tch se bien ong.
Khi he so nay cang cao tc dong tien vao t hoat ong au t chiem ty
trong cao, neu cha co ke hoach tai au t, doanh nghiep phai ngh ngay en
viec ieu phoi nguon tien u tieu thanh toan cac khoan n dai han en han tra
hoac tra trc han e giam chi ph lai vay. Sau o, ieu tiet von cho hoat ong
kinh doanh chnh e giam cac khoan vay ngan han.
c. He so dong tien vao t hoat ong tai chnh so vi tong dong tien vao:
Hoat ong tai chnh la nhng nghiep vu lam thay oi c cau tai chnh cua
doanh nghiep. Cu the la: tang giam cac khoan vay; tang giam von chu s hu
khi huy ong, phat hanh co phieu; mua lai trai phieu, co phieu; tra co tc; li
nhuan gi lai retained earnings Dong tien vao va ra (inflows outflows)
tng tng vi s tang giam trong cac nghiep vu ke tren.
Neu lu chuyen tien te t hoat ong kinh doanh khong u cho hoat ong
au t, buoc doanh nghiep phai ieu phoi dong tien t hoat ong tai chnh. o


192

co the la mot khoan vay se c tang len, phat hanh them co phieu hay la s
giam i hoac tham ch ngng tra cac khoan co tc. V thanh toan co tc trong
trng hp nh vay la khong co c s neu khong phai ban bt i mot phan cong
ty.
d. He so dong tien ra e tra n dai han so vi tong dong tien vao:
Tra n dai han oi vi cac khoan n cha en han tra lam cho he so dong
tien ra tang cao va thng gan lien vi mot chien lc nao o. Thong thng
mot ty le thanh toan n dai han so vi tong dong tien vao, at rat thap (5 10%)
va dien ra rat eu an qua cac nam. Nguyen nhan chnh la do tnh chat cua
khoan n dai han vi cac ieu khoan thanh toan on nh. Va cac khoan n dai
han luon gan lien vi cac d an au t dai han co thu nhap lau dai. V vay, he
so nay thay oi ot ngot la ieu can quan tam e tm nguyen nhan giai thch.
e. He so dong tien ra e tra co tc so vi dong tien t hoat ong kinh
doanh:
He so dong tien ra e tra co tc so vi dong tien rong t hoat ong kinh
doanh noi len viec s dung dong tien thu c t hoat ong kinh doanh dung tra
li tc cho cac co ong. ay la mot chien lc kha phc tap. Mot so cong ty co
chnh sach duy tr eu an mc tra co tc mac du phai s dung ca cac nguon von
khac ke ca i vay, khi dong tien t hoat ong kinh doanh khong ap ng u,
trong khi o mot so cong ty lai co chnh sach cng ran ngc lai. Tuy nhien,
he so dong tien ra e tra co tc so vi dong tien rong t hoat ong kinh doanh
phai luon c can nhac trc nhu cau au t hay s can thiet phai bo sung von
cong ty trong tng giai oan chien lc kinh doanh.
Khi cong ty quyet nh (do hoi ong quan tr) khong chi tra co tc, o co
phai la dau hieu bao rang cong ty ang phat trien?


193

My hien nay, mot so cong ty co phan cong cong noi tieng va co gia co
phieu cong ty khong ngng tang cao do nhu cau mua tang len cua cong chung,
trong o chu yeu thuoc ve cac cong ty kinh doanh phan mem, lai la cac cong ty
thng xuyen chi tra co tc tham ch co cong ty cha bao gi chi 1 ong co tc
nao, t ngay thanh lap.



















194

CHUONG o
PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON

6.1. CAC QUYET NH CAU TRUC VON
6.1.1. Khai niem
Cau truc von cua doanh nghiep c nh ngha la s ket hp so lng n
ngan han thng xuyen, n dai han, co phan u ai va von co phan thng c
dung e tai tr cho quyet nh au t cua mot doanh nghiep. Ngc lai, cau truc
tai chnh la s ket hp n vay ngan han, n dai han, co phan u ai, va von co
phan thng c dung e tai tr cho quyet nh au t mot doanh nghiep.
Nh vay, cau truc von ch la mot phan cua cau truc tai chnh, tieu bieu cho cac
nguon thng xuyen cua tai tr mot doanh nghiep.
e minh hoa cho khai niem cau truc von, gia du cong ty Baker Oil hien co
10 trieu o la n ngan han thng xuyen, 40 trieu n dai han cha thanh toan, 10
trieu co phan u ai, va 40 trieu co phan thng. Trong trng hp nay, cau truc
von hien tai cua Baker la 50% n, 10% co phan u ai va 40% co phan
thng. Nh vay, cau truc von lien quan en ty trong cua n thng xuyen, co
phan u ai, va co phan thng the hien tren bang can oi ke toan.
Trong phan tch cau truc von, can nhan manh en cau truc von muc tieu dai
han; tc la cau truc von ma theo o daonh nghiep hoach nh cac chien lc toi
u e hoat ong. oi vi hau het cac doanh nghiep, cau truc von hien tai va cau
truc von muc tieu hau nh giong nhau, va viec tnh toan cau truc von muc tieu la
mot qua trnh n gian.



195

Tuy nhien, oi khi cac doanh nghiep lai thay rang can phai thay oi cau
truc von hien tai sang mot cau truc von muc tieu khac. Ly do cua s thay oi
nay co the lien quan en viec thay oi trong hon hp tai san cua doanh nghiep
(va do o mot thay oi trong rui ro cua doanh nghiep) hay mot gia tang trong
canh tranh co the tiem an nhieu rui ro hn. V du, e ap ng vi rui ro va canh
tranh gia tang trong cong nghiep ien cong tch, Standard va Poors, mot cong ty
chuyen xep hang trai phieu, a giam ty le n mong muon trong cau truc von cua
cac doanh nghiep nganh cong tch (phuc vu ien, nc) xep hang AA t pham vi
42% en 47% xuong con 39% en 46%. Ket qua la nhieu cong ty cong tch a
thay oi cau truc von thien ve bao thu hn.
6.1.2. Cau truc von toi u
Cau truc von toi u la mot hon hp n dai han, co phan u ai, va von co
phan thng cho phep toi thieu hoa chi ph s dung von bnh quan cua doanh
nghiep. Vi mot cau truc von co chi ph s dung von bnh quan c toi thieu
hoa, tong gia tr cac chng khoan cua doanh nghiep (va, v vay, gia tr cua
doanh nghiep) c toi a hoa. Do o, cau truc von co chi ph s dung von toi
thieu c goi la cau truc von toi u.
So lng n trong cau truc von toi u cua doanh nghiep c goi la kha
nang vay n cua doanh nghiep. Cau truc von toi u va, do o, kha nang vay n
cua mot doanh nghiep c xac nh bi cac yeu to: rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh
nghiep, thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep va thue thu nhap ca nhan, mc o
pha san co the co, chi ph ai ly, vai tro cua chnh sach cau truc von trong viec
cung cap cac tn hieu ve thanh qua cua doanh nghiep cho cac th trng von.
6.1.3. Cac gia nh cua phan tch cau truc von


196

au tien, gia nh la chnh sach au t cua doanh nghiep gi nguyen khong
oi khi ta xem xet tac ong cua cac thay oi trong cau truc von oi vi gia tr
doanh nghiep va gia tr cua co phan thng. Gia nh nay co ngha la mc o va
tnh kha bien cua lai trc va lai vay (EBIT) c d kien khong oi khi xem
xet cac thay oi trong cau truc von. V vay, cac thay oi ve cau truc von ch tac
ong en phan phoi lai trc thue va lai vay gia cac trai chu, co ong u ai va
co ong thng.
Bang gia nh mot chnh sach au t khong oi, chung ta gia nh rang viec
au t do doanh nghiep thc hien khong lam thay oi kha nang tra n co the
chap cua doanh nghiep. Tren thc te, gia nh nay khong phai luc nao cung
ung, nhng oi vi phan ln cac d an au t, ay la mot gia nh co tnh thc
te, giup chung ta chu trong vao cac yeu to quyet nh chu yeu cua mot cau truc
von toi u.
6.1.4. Cac yeu to khac can xem xet trong quyet nh cau truc von
Cac tieu chuan nganh
Mot so nghien cu cho thay cau truc von gia cac nganh cong nghiep khac
nhau rat nhieu. Cac nha phan tch tai chnh, cac ngan hang au t, cac c quan
xep hang trai phieu, cac nha au t co phan thng va cac ngan hang thng
mai thng so sanh rui ro tai chnh cua doanh nghiep, o lng bi cac ty so kha
nang thanh toan lai vay, kha nang thanh toan chi ph tai chnh co nh va ty le
on bay, vi cac tieu chuan hay nh mc cua nganh hoat ong. Co chng c ro
rang la cau truc von cua doanh nghiep thay oi mot cach anh ke gia cac
nganh hoat ong. Co chng c My chang han, trong thap nien 90, ty le n dai
han bnh quan trong nganh xe hi vao khoang 43%.



197

Ty le nay nay cua nganh nha hang la 49%, nganh phan phoi kh thien
nhien 45%, nganh ien cong ch la 50% va nganh may tnh la 21%.
Cuoc nghien cu cua Kester cho thay ty le n tren von co phan thng cua
doanh nghiep trong nganh giay la 1,36 lan, so vi 0,079 cua cac doanh nghiep
trong nganh dc pham. Kester tm thay rang cac doanh nghiep cang sinh li
cao, cang co khuynh hng s dung t n. Mot so nghien cu khac cho thay ty le
on bay tai chnh trong cau truc von co tng quan phu nh vi tan suat pha san
trong nganh.
Cung co chng c rang cac doanh nghiep phat sinh cac dong tien on nh
qua chu ky kinh doanh thng co khuynh hng co ty le on bay tai chnh cao
hn. Noi chung, cac doanh nghiep co khuynh hng tap trung sat vi ty le n
cua nganh, co the phan anh s kien la phan ln rui ro kinh doanh ma mot doanh
nghiep gap phai la do nganh hoat ong an nh. Mot doanh nghiep chap nhan
cau truc von khac biet ln vi mc bnh quan nganh se phai thuyet phuc cac th
trng tai chnh la ru ro kinh doanh cua mnh cung se khac biet ang ke vi rui
ro cua mot doanh nghiep trung bnh trong nganh e bao am cho cau truc von
khac biet nay.
Tom lai, cac nghien cu ve tac ong cua nganh hoat ong oi vi cau truc
von thng i ti ket luan la co mot cau truc von toi u cho cac doanh nghiep ca
the. Th trng se tng thng cho cac doanh nghiep at c cau truc von nay.
Tac ong cua tn hieu
Khi doanh nghiep phat hanh chng khoan mi, s kien nay co the c coi
la ang cung cap mot tn hieu cho th trng tai chnh ve vien canh trong tng
lai cua doanh nghiep hay cac hoat ong tng lai do cac giam oc cua doanh
nghiep hoach nh.


198

Stephen Ross lap luan rang nhng tn hieu do cac thay oi cau truc von
cung cap la ang tin cay v neu cac dong tien tng lai khong xay ra, doanh
nghiep phai chu so tien phat tc chi ph pha san co the co. Noi chung, cac
nghien cu ve thay oi cau truc von eu cho rang cac cung ng chng khoan
mi a ti cac ap ng gia chng khoan giam. Viec mua lai co phan thng la
se a ti cac li nhuan c cong bo dng ln t co phan thng cua doanh
nghiep. Cac hanh ong lam tang on bay tai chnh thng gan vi thu nhap co
phan dng va cac hanh ong la giam on bay tai chnh gan vi thu nhap co
phan am.
Ket qua cua nhieu cuoc nghien cu ve thay oi cau truc von luon nhat quan
vi cac tac ong trc tiep cua thay oi, chang han nh cac li ch cua tam chan
thue ln hn, va vi ca cac tac ong thong tin gian tiep. V vay, khi mot doanh
nghiep thc hien quyet nh thay oi ve cau truc von, doanh nghiep phai chu y
en tn hieu co the co ve cac vien canh thu nhap tng lai va hien tai cua doanh
nghiep cung nh cac d nh cua cac giam oc ma giao dch c e xuat se
chuyen en th trng.
Tac ong cua u tien quan tr: ly thuyet trat t phan hang
Myers a cho rang co the khong co mot cau truc von muc tieu rieng. Ly
thuyet trat t phan hang cua Myers ham y rang cac doanh nghiep thch tai tr
noi bo hn. Myers lap luan rang cac giam oc ieu chnh ty le chi tra co tc e
tranh viec ban co phan thng ra ben ngoai trong khi tranh cac thay oi ln
trong so lng co phan. Neu can phai co tai tr t ben ngoai, Myers cho rang
cac chng khoan an toan nhat nen c phat hanh trc. Cu the n thng la
chng khoan au tien c phat hanh va von co phan ban ra ben ngoai la giai
phap cuoi cung.


199

u tien cho tai tr noi bo da tren c muon tranh cac bien phap ky luat va
giam sat se xay ra khi ban chng khoan mi ra cong chung. Ngoai ra, Myers lap
luan rang trat t phan hang tai tr co the phan anh cac chi ph phat hanh tng
oi cho nhieu loai chng khoan khac nhau. Ly thuyet trat t phan hang giup giai
thch tai sao cac doanh nghiep sinh li cao thng co ty le n thap.
Cac ham y ve quan tr cua ly thuyet cau truc von
Cac nghien cu cau truc von ve ly thuyet cung nh thc nghiem a cung
cap cho cac giam oc tai chnh nhng hieu biet sau sac quan trong. Quyet nh
cau truc von la mot trong nhng quyet nh quan trong ma cac giam oc tai
chnh phai quan tam. Trc het, hau nh chac chan cac thay oi trong cau truc
von se a en cac thay oi trong gia tr th trng cua doanh nghiep.
Th hai, li ch cua tam chan thue t n a en gia tr doanh nghiep gia
tang, t nhat la en iem ma chi ph ai ly va chi ph pha san gia tang lam bu tr
li the ve thue cua n. Th ba, cau truc toi u chu anh hng nang ne bi rui ro
kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. Th t, khi cac giam oc thc hien cac thay oi
hien hien trong cau truc von cua doanh nghiep, cac hanh ong nay se chuyen
cac thong tin quan trong en cac nha au t.
Cac van e ao c: Tac ong cua mua lai bang von vay (LBO) oi vi co
ong
Toc o nhanh chong cua cac vu sap nhap va mua lai trong thap nien 1980
a neu len nhien van e ang chu y lien quan en quyen cua nhieu co ong
khac nhau trong cac giao dch nay. Cac mua lai bang von vay a en cac gia
tang ln hn trong so lng n dung e tai tr mot doanh nghiep trong vai
trng hp len en 95% cau truc von.



200

Viec s dung so lng n ln nay cho phep mot nhom nho cac nha au t
mua lai quyen s hu va kiem soat mot doanh nghiep ln ch vi mot au t von
co phan tng oi nho. Ganh nang cac chi ph tai chnh co nh t viec tai tr n
cung buoc cac giam oc gia tang toi a hieu nang hoat ong cua doanh nghiep
va mua lai. Cac li ch nay cua cac mua lai bang von vay c chng minh va
ghi nhan tot trong cac tai lieu.
Tuy nhien, cac li ch nay khong phai kem theo cac chi ph ang ke. V du,
hieu nang hoat ong gia tang thng at bang cach cat giam viec lam, cat giam
tien lng, va ong ca cac nha may hoat ong khong hieu qua. Viec mua lai
bang von vay cong ty Safeway lam cho 63.000 giam oc va nhan vien b mat
viec do ban va ong ca cac ca hang. Cac nhan vien nay khi c cac chu mi
cua cac ca hang nay tai tuyen dung phai chap nhan mc lng thap hn trc
rat nhieu. Nhieu to chc b mat cac ong gop va ho tr rat ln cua cong ty
Safeway hao phong trc ay.
Cac trai chu cua cong ty va b mua lai cung ganh chu mot khoan thu lo
ln trong gia tr trai phieu cua ho khi mot mua lai bang von vay c cong bo.
Trong viec mua lai RJR Nabisco, Cong ty Metropolitan Life Insuarance va cac
trai chu khac a khi kien ve cac thua lo ma cac trai chu cua RJR phai ganh
chu vao luc mua lai nay.
Mua lai bang von vay at ra cac van e ao c quan trong. Cac quyen li
co tnh canh tranh cua co ong se c giai quyet nh the nao trong cac mua lai
bang von vay va trong cac giao dch tai chnh quan trong khac? Tuy nhien, cac
cau hoi nay t khi co c cau tra li n gian. Mot vai van e can xem xet khi
thao luan ve tnh ao c cua cac mua lai bang von vay.


201

Co phai viec duy tr so lng nhan vien va cac c s hoat ong
khong hieu qua lam giam kha nang canh tranh cua doanh nghiep vi
cac doanh nghiep khac la v li ch lau dai cua nhan vien khong?
Trong cac giao dch mua lai bang von vay, cac trai chu co thc s b
thiet hai, khi tnh en cac ieu khoan bao ve trong hp ong ky ket
luc ho mua trai phieu vi moi lien he gia li tc trai phieu va thoa
hiep bao ve khong?
Cac oi hoi cua nha cho vay va c quan va c quan xep hang trai phieu
Cac nha cho vay va cac c quan xep hang trai phieu thng nh ra cac gii
han cho viec la chon cau truc von cua doanh nghiep nh la mot ieu kien e
cung cap tn dung hay duy tr xep hang cua trai phieu hoac co phan u ai. Th
du, Standard & Poors a lap cac nh chuan trong bang di ay e xep hang
n cua nganh ien cong ch. Cac ty so trong bang nay khong ch la cac yeu to
c xem xet khi lap bang xep hang trai phieu cho mot doanh nghiep, ma con la
cac hng dan rat quan trong ma mot doanh nghiep phai tuan thu neu muon duy
tr hay cai tien xep hang tn nhiem cua mnh.
Hang Kha nang thanh toan lai vay on bay tai chnh
AAA Ln hn 4,5 lan t hn 41%
AA T 3,5 en 5,0 lan T 39 en 46%
A T 2,5 en 4,0 lan T 44 en 52%
BBB T 1,5 en 3,0 lan T 50 en 58%
BB t hn 2,0 lan Ln hn 56%
Bang 6.1. Tieu chuan xep hang trai phieu ien cong ch


202

S khong thch rui ro cua cap quan ly
Viec cap quan ly co san long chap nhan rui ro hay khong thng co tac
ong ln en cau truc von ma doanh nghiep la chon. Mot vai giam oc chap
nhan cac cau truc von co nhieu rui ro mot cach khac thng hay co mc rui ro
thap mot cach khac thng. Khi mot cau truc von di toi u c chon, th
trng tai chnh se phat doanh nghiep v hanh ong (la chon) nay.
Th du, ty le n trung bnh cua nganh nc giai khat My trong thap nien
90 la 41%. Ty le n cua cong ty Adolph Coors la 0%, do chnh sach tai tr va la
chu nhan va la giam oc cc ky bao thu. Hau het cac nha phan tch eu ong y
rang Coors co the them mot so lng n vao cau truc von cua mnh mot cach an
toan e t o ha thap c chi ph s dung von bnh quan va lam gia tang gia tr
th trng cua doanh nghiep. Cooors co kha nang duy tr cau truc von nay v gia
nh Coors kiem soat 100% co phan co quyen bo phieu. Neu quyen kiem soat
cua chu nhan kiem ieu hanh nay khong hien hu, rat co the Coors se b cac chu
nhan mi mua lai va chu nhan mi nay nay se ieu chnh cau truc von cua cong
ty mot cach ang ke. Cac khac biet trong chnh sach ve cau truc von thch hp
cho mot doanh nghiep la mot ong lc chnh ang sau nhieu mua lai bang von
vay (LBO).
6.2. PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON
6.2.1. Phan tch EBIT - EPS
Phan tch EBIT-EPS la mot ky thuat phan tch c dung e xac nh cac
tnh huong mot doanh nghiep nen s dung on bay tai chnh. Ve c ban, no lien
quan en tnh toan thu nhap moi co phan tai cac mc EBIT khac nhau cho cac
phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh va tai tr hoan toan bang von co
phan. Va thong tin nay co the c dung e o th hoa thu nhap moi co phan so


203

vi iem hoa von EBIT va xac nh cac mc EBIT ma on bay tai chnh se co
li cho doanh nghiep.
Lay v du tai cong ty Macbeth Spot Removers hien co mot cau truc ch gom
co co phan thng (35 trieu co phan). Gia du la Macbeth ang xem xet viec m
rong hoat ong va ang tham nh hai phng an tai tr e la chon. Phng an
1, tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan, lien quan en viec ban them 15 trieu co
phan thng vi gia 20$ moi co phan. Phng an 2, tai tr them bang n, lien
quan en viec phat hanh 300 trieu o la trai phieu lai suat 10%.
Neu chap nhan phng an 1, cau truc von cua cong ty van la cau truc von
tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. Nhng neu chap nhan phng an 2, cau truc
von cua cong ty se chuyen sang cau truc von co s dung on bay tai chnh. V
phng an 2 lien quan en viec s dung on bay tai chnh nen van e c ban ma
phng thc tai tr nay at ra la lieu viec s dung on bay tai chnh co em en
li ch tot nhat cho cac co ong hien hu cua doanh nghiep hay khong.












204

n v tnh: trieu o la
EBIT = 75 EBIT = 125
Phng an 1 Tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan
EBIT 75 125
Lai vay - -
EBT (lai trc thue) 75 125
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (40%) 30 50
EAT (lai sau thue) 45 75
So co phan cha chi tra (trieu co phan) 50 50
EPS 0,90 1,50
% thay oi trong EBIT +66,67%
% thay oi trong EPS +66,67%
Phng an 2 Tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh
EBIT 75 125
Lai vay 30 30
EBT (lai trc thue) 45 95
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (40%) 18 38
EAT (lai sau thue) 27 57
So co phan cha chi tra (trieu co phan) 35 35
EPS 0,77 1,63
% thay oi trong EBIT +66,67%
% thay oi trong EPS +112%
Bang 6.2. Phan tch EBIT EPS cong ty Macbeth


205

Bang 6.2 minh hoa tnh toan EPS tai hai mc EBIT gia nh khac nhau cho
ca hai phng thc tai tr. V moi lien he gia EBIT va EPS la tuyen tnh, hai
iem tnh trong bang 6.2 co the c dung e o th hoa moi lien he cho moi
phng an tai tr.
Neu EBIT thap hn 100 trieu o la, thu nhap moi co phan cua phng an
tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan cao hn phng an tai tr phng an 2.
Tng ng, cac mc EBIT ln hn 100 trieu o la, thu nhap moi co phan cao
hn khi s dung phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh. Con so 100 trieu
o la c goi la iem hoa von EBIT. Theo nh ngha, tai iem hoa von EBIT,
thu nhap moi co phan cua hai phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh va
tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan th bang nhau:
EPS
DE
= EPS
E
(6.1)
Phng trnh xac nh iem hoa von EBIT c viet nh sau:
( )( ) 1
(1 )
E DE
EBIT R T
EBIT T
EPS
N N

= = (6.2)
Vi N
E
tieu bieu cho so co phan thng cha chi tra tng ng cua phng
an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. N
DE
tieu bieu cho so co phan thng cha
chi tra cua phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh.
Phng trnh nay co the c dung e tnh toan trc tiep mc EBIT hoa
von. Tai mc EBIT hoa von nay, thu nhap moi co phan cua hai phng an tai tr
bang nhau.
Vi cac d lieu trong v du bang 6.2 cho ta mc EBIT la 100 trieu o la
tai iem hoa von:
( )( ) 30 1 40% (1 40%)
50 35
EBIT EBIT
EPS

= =


206

21EBIT = 30EBIT - 900
9EBIT = 900
EBIT = 100 (trieu o la)
Trong phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan, mot gia tang 66,67%
trong EBIT (t 75 trieu o la len 125 trieu o la) a en mot gia tang 66,67%
trong thu nhap moi co phan (t 0,9$ len 1,5$), hay o nghieng on bay tai chnh
la 1,68. Mot sut giam tng t trong thu nhap moi co phan se xay ra neu EBIT
giam.
Bien thien rong hn nay trong thu nhap moi co phan xay ra vi phng an
tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh la mot minh hoa cua rui ro tai chnh, v rui
ro tai chnh c nh ngha la tnh kha bien gia tang trong thu nhap moi co phan
do viec s dung on bay tai chnh cua doanh nghiep. Khi cac yeu to khac bang
nhau, mot gia tang trong ty le tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh se lam gia
tang rui ro tai chnh cua doanh nghiep.








o th 6.1. Phan tch EBIT EPS: Cong ty Macbeth
KPS ( o lu)
KBT ( treu
o lu)
0
75
1,63
1,50
1,00
0,90
0,77
100 125
Lo the cuu
tu tro bung
co phun
thuong
Lo the cuu
tu tro bung
no vuy
Tu tro no
Tu tro co
phun thuong
KPS ( o lu)
KBT ( treu
o lu)
0
75
1,63
1,50
1,00
0,90
0,77
100 125
Lo the cuu
tu tro bung
co phun
thuong
Lo the cuu
tu tro bung
no vuy
Tu tro no
Tu tro co
phun thuong


207

Bc 1: Tnh toan mc EBIT d kien sau khi m rong hoat ong. Can c tren
kinh nghiem hoat ong a qua cua Macbeth va mot d kien ve tac ong cua
viec m rong kinh doanh, giam oc tai chnh c tnh EBIT d kien se la 125
trieu $/nam trong cac ieu kien hoat ong bnh thng.
Bc 2: c lng tnh kha bien cua mc li nhuan kinh doanh nay. Da
tren thanh qua qua kh cua cong ty qua nhieu chu ky kinh doanh, o lech chuan
cua li nhuan kinh doanh c c lng vao khoang 25 trieu$/nam. (Gia du lai
trc thue va lai vay c phan phoi chuan hay t nhat vao khoang o).
Bc 3: Tnh toan iem hoa von EBIT gia hai phng an tai tr them n
mi hay duy tr cau truc von 100% von co phan. Dung phng phap phan tch
EBIT EPS va trnh bay, giam oc tai chnh a tnh c iem hoa von EBIT
la 100 trieu $.
Bc 4: Phan tch cac c lng nay trong boi canh rui ro ma cong ty san
sang chap nhan. Sau nhieu cuoc thao luan, cong ty quyet nh san sang chap
nhan mot c hoi 25% lai trc thue va lai vay trong moi nam se thap hn iem
hoa von va mot c hoi 5% doanh nghiep se phai bao cao lo trong tng nam. e
hoan tat phan tch nay, can tnh xac suat lai trc thue va lai vay se thap hn
iem hoa von EBIT; tc la xac suat EBIT se t hn 100 trieu $. Tren ng cong
phan phoi chuan nay se tng ng vi:
100 $ 125 $
z 1, 0
25 $
trie u trie u
trie u

= = (6.3)
Hay o lech chuan 1,0 di trung bnh. Xac suat EBIT se thap hn o lech
chuan 1,0 di trung bnh la 15,87% (xem phan phu luc phan phoi chuan cua z
cuoi sach). V vay, tren c s tieu chuan iem hoa von EBIT, cau truc von mi
c e xuat co ve chap nhan c.


208

Bay gi ta phai phan tch xac suat chu lo. o la xac suat EBIT se t hn chi
tra oi hoi 30 trieu $. Tren ng cong phan phoi chuan, iem nay tng ng
vi:
30 $ 125 $
z 3,8
25 $
trieu trieu
trieu

= =
Hay o lech chuan 3,8 di trung bnh. Xac suat EBIT se t hn o lech
chuan 3,8 di trung bnh tien ti 0 (xem phan phu luc phan phoi chuan cua z
cuoi sach). Theo tieu chuan nay giam oc tai chnh cua Macbeth co the rat yen
tam khi a e xuat cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh.
Neu mot trong hai hoac ca hai th nghiem nay cho thay cau truc von e
xuat co mc o rui ro khong the chap nhan, giam oc tai chnh se phai lap lai
phan tch nay oi vi cac mc n thap hn cac tieu chuan do doanh nghiep nh
ra, giam oc tai chnh co the muon xem xet cac mc n cao hn mc e ngh
phat hanh 300 trieu $ trai phieu.
Bc 5: Xem xet cac chng c th trng e xac nh cau truc von e xuat co
qua rui ro khong. Viec lam nay lien quan en cac iem sau: mc o rui ro kinh
doanh cua doanh nghiep, nh mc nganh cho cac ty so on bay va ch so kha
nang thanh toan, khuyen cao cua cac ngan hang oi vi doanh nghiep.
Bc nay ch thc hien sau khi cau truc von e xuat ap ng c cac th
nghiem noi bo ve tnh kha thi cua no. on bay tai chnh la mot con dao hai
li: lam tang li nhuan d kien nhng cung lam tang rui ro. Neu gia tang trong
rui ro cam nhan c ln hn gia tang trong thu nhap d kien, chi ph s dung
von bnh quan cua doanh nghiep co the tang thay v giam, va gia tr cua doanh
nghiep se sut giam.



209

on bay tai chnh va gia co phan: Cau hoi quan trong nhat at ra t phan
tch EBIT EPS la tac ong cua on bay tai chnh oi vi gia co phan thng
cua doanh nghiep nh the nao? Cu the, phng an tai tr nao se lam cho gia co
phan cao hn? Gia du Macbeth co the hoat ong mc EBIT 125 trieu o la.
Neu cong ty chon phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh, EPS se bang
1,63$ va neu cong ty chon phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. EPS
se bang 1,5$. Nhng gia co phan lai tuy thuoc vao ty so gia thu nhap (P/E) ma
th trng chng khoan phan bo cho moi phng an. Noi cach khac, gia co phan
khong ch tuy thuoc vao EPS ma con phu thuoc vao ty so gia thu nhap P/E cua
doanh nghiep. Gia du th trng chng khoan se phan tch va d bao ty so P/E la
10,0 cho co phan thng cua cong ty neu chon phng an tai tr hoan toan bang
co phan thng va 9,8 neu chon phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh.
Co the tnh gia co phan thng P
0
cho ca hai phng an sau:
P
0
= EPS x P/E
Phng an tai tr hoan toan bang co phan thng:
P
0
= 10,0 x 1,50$ = 15$
Phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh:
P
0
= 9,8 x 1,63$ = 15,97 hay tnh tron 16$
Cac tnh toan tren cho thay trong trng hp nay th trng chng khoan a
at mot gia tr cao hn cho co phan thng cua cong ty neu phng an tai tr co
s dung on bay tai chnh c chon thay v phng an tai tr hoan toan bang
von co phan. Lu y rang th trng chng khoan cung co the phan bo mot ty so
P/E hi thap hn cho phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh, bi v th
trng chng khoan a tha nhan gia tang rui ro tai chnh gan vi phng an tai
tr nay. Nhng cung co the rui ro gia tang nay se en bu nhieu hn bang gia


210

tang EPS co the co khi s dung on bay tai chnh va ieu nay co the lam cho gia
co phan cua phng an tai tr bang on bay tai chnh se cao hn phng an tai
tr bang von co phan.
Nhng minh hoa cho thay rang ngay ca khi doanh nghiep a at c tren
iem hoa von EBIT la 100 trieu $ th doanh nghiep cung cha the xay dung mot
cau truc von co s dung on bay tai chnh. Nhan nh nay trai ngc hoan toan
vi suy ngh cua chung ta trc ay khi cho rang neu doanh nghiep vt qua
iem hoa von EBIT th mot cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh co
ve nh lam li cho co ong nhieu hn so EPS cao hn.
Nhan nh nay a bo qua yeu to gia co phan cua doanh nghiep, co the EPS
tang len nhng gia co phan lai khong tang hoac tham ch co the giam. Vay lam
the nao e biet c mc EBIT ma tai o lam toi a hoa gia tr th trng cua
doanh nghiep.
iem hoa von gia th trng la iem ma tai o neu EBIT d kien thap hn
iem hoa von th trng th cau truc von thien ve s dung von co phan se co li
hn. Ngc lai neu EBIT d kien vt qua iem hoan von gia tr th trng th
cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh se lam toi a hoa gia tr th
trng cua doanh nghiep.
iem hoa von th trng c xac nh bang phng trnh:
( ) ( )( ) 1- / - 1- / E DE
E DE
EBIT T P E EBIT R T P E
N N
( (

=

( ) 0, 6 30 9,8
0, 6 10
50 35
EBIT
EBIT


=
210EBIT = 294EBIT 8.820
84EBIT = 8.820


211

EBIT = 105 trieu $
Neu nh giam oc tai chnh d bao EBIT thap hn iem hoa von gia tr th
trng la 105 trieu $, cau truc von co phan se lam tang gia tr th trng cua
doanh nghiep. Ngc lai, neu EBIT d kien vt iem hoa von gia tr th trng
la 105 trieu $ th cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh se lam gia tang
gia tr th trng.
Tom lai, doanh nghiep co the gia tang thu nhap cho co ong bang cach gia
tang mc rui ro tai chnh. Tuy nhien, v gia tang rui ro co khuynh hng lam gia
tang chi ph s dung von (tng t nh mot sut giam trong ty so P/E), giam oc
tai chnh phai anh gia, xem xet viec anh oi gia thu nhap moi co phan cao
hn cho cac co ong vi chi ph s dung von cao hn e t o a ra mot quyet
nh hieu qua hn.
6.2.2. Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat
Cac ty so kha nang thanh toan lai vay, kha nang thanh toan cac chi ph co
nh va kha nang thanh khoan khong cho ta mot hnh anh ay u ve v the kha
nang thanh toan cua doanh nghiep. Mot doanh nghiep b coi la mat kha nang
thanh toan ve mat ky thuat neu khong ap ng c cac ngha vu n hien hanh
(ngan han).
Do o chung ta can mot so o toan dien hn ve kha nang ap ng cac ngha
vu n cua mot doanh nghiep khi doanh nghiep s dung thong tin nay trong viec
hoach nh cau truc von. So o nay phai tnh ca tien mat co san va tien mat d
kien phat sinh trong tng lai. Donaldson cho rang mc o cua cac chi ph tai
chnh co nh cua mot doanh nghiep (bao gom lai vay, co tc u ai, ngha vu
quy hoan trai va thanh toan tien thue tai san) the hien kha nang vay n cua mot
doanh nghiep se tuy thuoc vao so d tien mat va cac dong tien rong d kien co
san trong mot trng hp xau nhat (giai oan suy thoai). Phan tch nay oi hoi
chuan b mot ngan sach tien mat chi tiet theo cac ieu kien suy thoai gia nh.


212

Donaldson nh ngha so d tien mat rong CB
R
cua mot doanh nghiep trong
ky suy thoai la:
CB
R
= CB
0
+ FCF
R

Vi CB
0
la so d tien mat (va cac chng khoan th trng) vao au ky suy
thoai, va FCF
R
la cac dong tien t do d kien phat sinh trong ky suy thoai.
Chang han, vao thang 9 nam 1999, AMAX Corporation, mot cong ty tai nguyen
thien nhien My, bao cao mot so d tien mat va cac chng khoan th trng
khoang 154 trieu o la. Sau nhieu lan thao luan, gia du giam oc tai chnh d
bao rang dong tien t do la 210 trieu o la trong mot ky suy thoai d kien 1 nam.
Dong tien t do nay phan anh cac dong tien hoat ong trong suot thi ky suy
thoai va cac chi ph tai chnh co nh ngan han oi hoi. Vi cau truc hien tai,
gom khoang 32% n, so d tien mat vao cuoi ky suy thoai se la 364 trieu o la
(154 trieu o la cong vi 210 trieu o la). Gia du rang ban quan ly cua AMAX
ang xem xet mot thay oi trong cau truc von, se lam tang them 280 trieu o la
tien lai sau thue hang nam va chi tra quy hoan trai (tc la cac chi ph tai chnh
co nh). Ket qua la mot so d tien mat vao cuoi ky suy thoai bang:
CB
R
= 154 trieu + 210 trieu 280 trieu = 84 trieu







= 140 treu $
Xuc suut xuy ru
- 210 -?0 ?0 210 350 490 630
$ trieu 210 FCKR = == =
Dong te n tu do
(FCF
R
) (treu $)
= 140 treu $
Xuc suut xuy ru
- 210 -?0 ?0 210 350 490 630
$ trieu 210 FCKR = == =
Dong te n tu do
(FCF
R
) (treu $)



213








o th 6.2. Phan tch dong tien t do (FCF
R
) va so d tien mat (CB
R
)
Cac giam oc tai chnh cua AMAX phai quyet nh xem so d tien mat d
kien 84 trieu o la nay co tao mot khoang cach u an toan (trai em) trong mot
ky suy thoai hay khong.
Phan tch nay co the nang len thanh nghe thuat neu giam oc tai chnh xac
nh c phan phoi xac suat cua cac dong tien t do d kien trong mot ky suy
thoai. Th du, neu cac giam oc cua AMAX, qua kinh nghiem trong qua kh, tin
rang cac dong tien t do c phan phoi gan (xap x) chuan vi gia tr d kien
trong ky suy thoai mot nam la 210 trieu o la va mot o lech chuan 140 trieu o
la, ho co the tnh c xac suat can tien mat neu vay them n mi.
Xac suat can tien mat bang vi xac suat ket thuc suy thoai vi so d tien
mat b am. Phan phoi xac suat cua so d tien mat cua AMAX se co cung dang
xap x chuan vi mot o lech chuan la 140 trieu o la vi phan phoi xac suat
cua dong tien t do. Nhng co ieu phan phoi chuan cua dong tien t do se dch
chuyen sang trai t mot gia tr trung bnh 210 trieu o la en mot gia tr trung
bnh mi la 84 trieu o la [tc la so d tien mat au ky (154 trieu o la) cong vi
cac dong tien t do (210 trieu o la) tr i cac chi ph tai chnh co nh tang
=140 treu$
So du ten
mut (CB
R
)
(treu $)
Xuc suut xuy ru
$ trieu 84 CB
R
= == =
- 280 -140 0 140 280 420
=140 treu$
So du ten
mut (CB
R
)
(treu $)
Xuc suut xuy ru
$ trieu 84 CB
R
= == =
- 280 -140 0 140 280 420



214

them (280 trieu o la)]. S dung mot phng trnh tng ng phng trnh 6.3,
vi so d tien mat (CB
R
) la bien so cua tien lai thay v EBIT, so d tien mat
bang 0$ la tng ng vi iem sau ay tren ng cong phan phoi chuan:
0$ 84.000.000$
z 0, 6
140.000.000$

= =

Ta co xac suat cua mot gia tr z bang hay t hn -0,60 la 27,43% (xem phu
luc cuoi giao trnh). Nh vay, vi mot gia tang 280 trieu o la trong cac chi ph
tai chnh co nh, xac suat AMAX can tien mat trong ky suy thoai mot nam vao
khoang 27,43% (tc vung am trong o th 6.2)
Giam oc tai chnh cua AMAX co the cam thay mc rui ro nh the la qua
ln. Neu ho ch muon gia nh mot rui ro can tien mat la 5% trong ky suy thoai
mot nam, ho co the nh so tien chi tra va quy hoan trai tang them (tc cac chi
ph tai chnh co nh) mot cach an toan. Trc tien, chung ta tm cac con so cua
o lech chuan (z) ve pha trai cua gia tr mong i se cho mot xac suat xay ra
5% trong phan uoi thap hn cua phan phoi (tc la vung in am trong o th 6.3).
T phu luc cuoi giao trnh, ta tm c gia tr cua z la xap x -1,65. Ke tiep,
chung ta tnh so d tien mat d kien can vao cuoi ky suy thoai mot nam neu rui
ro can tien mat c gi mc 5%:
(0$ )
z 1, 65
140.000.000$
231.000.000$
R
R
CB
CB

= =
=

Cuoi cung, v giam oc tai chnh cua AMAX d kien bc vao ky suy thoai
vi 154 trieu o la tien mat va phat sinh 210 trieu o la dong tien t do trong ky
suy thoai mot nam, cong ty ch co the chap nhan them 133 trieu o la (tc 154
trieu + 210 trieu 231 trieu) cac chi ph tai chnh co nh.


215

S san long cua giam oc tai chnh chap nhan rui ro i kem vi can tien
mat tuy thuoc vao nhieu yeu to, bao gom cac nguon quy co san t cac han mc
tn dung cha thanh toan vi ngan hang, doanh so ban chng khoan dai han, co
phan u ai va co phan thng mi, cac nguon quy co the co co cat giam chi
tieu trong thi gian kinh doanh i xuong, giam co tc va ban bt tai san.





o th 6.3. Cong ty AMAX: Phan phoi xac suat so d tien mat
6.2.3. Xac nh cau truc von da tren ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH:
Cac phng phap phan tch truyen thong tren c phan tch nh lng
thong qua o th se cho ngi ra quyet nh co cai nhn chien lc oi vi tai
chnh cua doanh nghiep trong tng lai, trong phan tch EBIT EPS th oi
tng phan tch la cac cong ty co phan co N
E
(so co phan thng cha chi tra
tng ng cua phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan) hay N
DE
(so co
phan thng cha chi tra cua phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh).
Tren thc te cac giam oc tai chnh tai cac doanh nghiep co the quyet nh cau
truc von thch hp thong qua ch tieu ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH ma khong
can thong qua N
E
va N
DE
. Cac gia nh can nghien cu nh sau:
Ty le li nhuan trc thue va lai vay tren tong tai san la a%.
Toan bo n la n vay, lai suat n vay doanh nghiep khi vay la b%.
-140 0 140 280 420 560
= 140 trieu $
So du ten mut
(CB
R
)(treu $)
5%
Xuc xuut xuy ru
R CB
-140 0 140 280 420 560
= 140 trieu $
So du ten mut
(CB
R
)(treu $)
5%
Xuc xuut xuy ru
R CB



216

Thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep la t% (tc li nhuan sau thue
la (1-t%) x li nhuan trc thue).
T nhng gia nh tren ta se phan tch e thay c anh hng cua c cau
n trong tong tai san en ty suat li nhuan sau thue tren von chu s hu.
Li nhuan trc thue + lai vay = a% x Tai san
Li nhuan trc thue + b% x n = a% (n + Von chu s hu)
Li nhuan trc thue = (a-b)% x n + a% x Von chu s hu
Li nhuan sau thue= (1-t%) (a-b)% n + (1-t%) a% x Von chu s hu
(1-t%) (a-b)% N
Ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH =
von chu s huu
+ (1-t%) a%
T cong thc tren va da vao phng trnh ke toan:
TAI SAN = N PHAI TRA + VON CHU S HU
Ta rut ra cac trng hp sau:
(1) Neu a < b : Cang tang n th cang lam tang ty le n tren von chu s
hu trong cung mot gia tr tai san, dan en giam ty suat li nhuan tren von chu
s hu v a b la mot so am.
(2) Neu a = b: Ty suat li tren von chu s hu = (1-t%)a% la mot ty le co
nh, du ty le n va von chu s hu thay oi.
(3) Neu a > b: Cang tang n th cang lam tang ty le n tren von chu s hu
trong cung mot gia tr tai san, dan en tang ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu
v a b la mot so dng.
e lam ro cho cac trng hp nay, chung ta co the xem xet chung trong
ieu kien c cho v du sau:
Co so lieu chung cua 3 doanh nghiep A, B, C cung nganh nh sau:



217

Tai lieu 1:
Tong TS = 3.000 trieu ong, lai suat n vay dai han la 10%/nam (b%)
Tai lieu 2:
Gia s doanh nghiep A khong vay (VCSH = 3.000 trieu ong), doanh
nghiep B vay 1.000 trieu ong (VCSH = 2.000 trieu ong) va doanh nghiep C
vay 2.000 trieu ong (VCSH = 1.000 trieu ong).
Tai lieu 3:
Ch tieu Trng hp 1 Trng hp 2 Trng hp 3
LN trc thue va lai vay
(trieu ong)
240 300 360
Ty le LN trc thue va lai
vay tren TS (a%)
8% 10% 12%
Sau ay ta se xem xet s thay doi cua ty suat li nhuan sau thue tren von
chu s hu trong cac trng hp c cau von khac nhau:
Trng hp 1 (a < b)
Ch tieu DNA khong
vay (VCSH
=3.000)
DNB vay 1000
(VCSH
=2.000)
DNC vay 2000
(VCSH
=1.000)
LN trc thue va lai vay 240 240 240
Chi ph lai vay 0 100 200
Li nhuan trc thue 240 140 40
Thue thu nhap (TS t%= 28%) 67,2 39,2 11,2
Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) 172,8 100,8 28,8
Ty suat LN/VCSH 5,76% 5,04% 2,88%
Cang tang n cang lam giam ty suat LN/VCSH



218

Trng hp 2 (a = b)
DNA khong
vay (VCSH
=3.000)
DNB vay 1000
(VCSH
=2.000)
DNC vay 2000
(VCSH
=1.000)
LN trc thue va lai vay 300 300 300
Chi ph lai vay 0 100 200
Li nhuan trc thue 300 200 100
Thue thu nhap (TS 28%) 84 56 28
Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) 216 144 72
Ty suat LN/VCSH 7,2% 7,2% 7,2%
Tang n khong lam thay oi ty suat LN/VCSH
Trng hp 3 (a > b)
DNA khong
vay (VCSH
=3.000)
DNB vay
1000 (VCSH
=2.000)
DNC vay
2000 (VCSH
=1.000)
LN trc thue va lai vay 360 360 360
Chi ph lai vay 0 100 200
Li nhuan trc thue 360 260 160
Thue thu nhap (thue suat 28%) 100,8 72,8 44,8
Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) 259,2 187,2 115,2
Ty suat LN/VCSH 8,64% 9,36% 11,52%
Cang tang n cang lam tang ty suat LN/VCSH


219

Nh vay tuy theo tnh hnh kinh doanh (bang cach so sanh a va b) ma cac
nha quan ly co the quyet nh tang hoac giam n vay trong cau truc tai chnh
cua doanh nghiep. e gia tang ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu.
Ngoai ra khi so sanh 3 doanh nghiep tren ta gia s rang ca ba doanh nghiep
cung co von la 3.000 trieu ong nhng cach s dung von cua moi doanh nghiep
la khac nhau. Doanh nghiep B va C co vay se s dung phan von chu s hu con
lai au t vao mot c hoi khac.
Trong ieu kien kinh doanh thuan li (trng hp 3) cang tang n vay trong
c cau tai san se cang lam tang ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu, chng to
von chu s hu c s dung co hieu qua. Neu trong c cau n co mot phan
khong phai n vay ma la n chiem dung c cua doanh nghiep khac (khong
phai tra lai) th lai n vay se giam bt va li nhuan trc thue cung nh sau thue
se tang len tng ng, dan en ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu se cao hn
trng hp n hoan toan la n vay.











220










PHAN BAI TAP












221

Bai tap 1
Phan tch hoan thanh ke hoach khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep cho
san xuat san pham cua doanh nghiep, biet rang doanh nghiep san xuat duy nhat
mot loai san pham.
Bai tap 2
1) Co tai lieu ve doanh thu va chi ph hoat ong tai mot doanh
nghiep qua 10 thang (10 ky) tai mot doanh nghiep sau:
n v tnh: trieu ong
Ky kinh doanh Doanh thu ban hang Chi ph hoat ong
1 1.246 234
2 1.589 256
3 1.895 384
4 2.040 410
5 2.350 424
6 2.621 434
7 2.890 450
8 3.190 460
9 3.598 470
10 3.950 490
Yeu cau:
a) Phan tch c cau chi ph hoat ong (bat bien, kha bien) cua doanh
nghiep.
Ch tieu
n v
tnh
Ky
hieu
Ke
hoach
Thc
hien
- Khoi lng san pham hang hoa Tan q 80 100
- Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep cho
n v thi gian lao ong
1.000 n 20 20
- Lng thi gian lao ong hao ph
cho 1 n v san pham
Gi/tan u 120 115


222

b) Da vao phng trnh hoi quy tm c, d bao chi ph hoat ong 2
thang con lai cua nam mc doanh thu 4.500 va 4.600 trieu ong.
Bai tap 3
Co tnh hnh ve nguyen vat lieu s dung e san xuat 3 loai san pham A, B,
C tai mot doanh nghiep sau:
Khoi lng
san pham
san xuat
(tan)
n gia
nguyen vat
lieu
(1.000 /kg)
Tieu hao nguyen vat
lieu cho san xuat 1 n
v SP (kg)
Ten
san pham
Ke
hoach
Thc
te
Loai
nguyen
vat
lieu Ke
hoach
Thc
te
Article II. Ke
hoach
Thc
te
a 46 42 18 17
b 22 25 15 16 Article III. A

500

550
c 30 35 13 11
a 46 42 20 18
B

460

450 c 30 35 15 17
b 22 25 30 28
C 300 320
d 35 32 18 20
Yeu cau:
a) Phan tch chung tnh hnh hoan thanh ke hoach chi ph nguyen vat lieu
trc tiep.
b) Phan tch cac nhan to anh hng en chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep
cua doanh nghiep.
c) Da vao ket qua phan tch tai cau b, hay cho biet neu doanh nghiep
tang lng san xuat san lng san pham A th co li cho doanh nghiep
khong.






223

Bai tap 4
Co so lieu ve tnh hnh san xuat va s dung lao ong cua mot doanh nghiep
sau:
Khoan muc Ke hoach Thc te
- Gia tr san lng hang hoa (trieu ong) (a) 17.500 (b) 21.500
- Tong so cong nhan san xuat (ngi)
Trong o: + Cong nhan san xuat chnh
+ Cong nhan san xuat phu
560
336
224
650
455
195
- Tien lng bnh quan (1.000)
Trong o: + Cong nhan san xuat chnh
+ Cong nhan san xuat phu
835
950
720
850
950
750
1) Yeu cau:
a) Phan tch chung bien ong tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep.
b) Phan tch cac nhan to anh hng en tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep
cua doanh nghiep.
Bai tap 5
Cho tai lieu ve tnh hnh san xuat san pham cua mot doanh nghiep sau:
Khoi lng san
xuat (tan)
Gia ban (1.000) Gia thanh n v (.1000) Ten san
pham
KH TH KH TH Ky trc KH TH
A 100 110 50 51 20 20 19
B 500 600 30 32 10 9 8
C 300 290 40 38 20 18 20
Yeu cau:
a) Phan tch tnh hnh hoan thanh ke hoach ha gia thanh san pham so
sanh c.
b) Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 doanh thu hang hoa ban ra.





224

Bai tap 6
Phan tch ch tieu chi ph cho 1.000 doanh thu tieu thu cua mot doanh
nghiep theo tai lieu sau:
Khoi lng san pham
san xuat (cai)
Gia ban (1.000)
Gia thanh n v san
pham (1.000)
Ten san
pham
KH TH KH TH KH TH
A 2.000 2.100 50 55 20 19
B 4.000 5.000 30 35 9 9
C 3.500 3.300 60 55 32 30

Bai tap 7
Co so ieu quan sat ve tnh hnh thc hien khoi lng hang ban, n gia ban
va chi ph quang cao c thu thap tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau:
Khoi lng hang ban
(san pham)
Gia ban
(1000 ong)
Chi ph quang cao
(1000 ong) Ky (thang)
Y X
1
X
2

01/2006 2011 41 2361
02/2006 3775 37 3533
03/2006 3120 44 3401
04/2006 1442 49 2323
05/2006 1867 49 2515
06/2006 2094 52 2837
07/2006 3240 32 3179
08/2006 2182 42 2535
09/2006 2349 48 2910
Yeu cau:
Tm phng trnh hoi quy the hien moi quan he cua khoi lng hang ban
oi vi gia ban va chi ph quang cao cua doanh nghiep.



225

Bai tap 8
Co tai lieu phan anh tnh hnh tieu thu va chi ph cua doanh nghiep sau:
Yeu cau:
Phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach ve Li nhuan t hoat ong kinh
doanh cua doanh nghiep va cho biet cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan o nh
the nao? (Can chu y en nhng nhan to co quan he cung chieu, lai co nhng nhan
to co quan he ngc chieu vi ch tieu li nhuan).

Bai tap 9
Co so lieu thu thap t bang bao cao thu nhap va bang can oi ke toan tai
mot doanh nghiep sau:
Bao cao thu nhap rut gon (n v tnh: trieu ong):

Khoan muc Nam trc Nam nay
Doanh thu 51.000 52.500
Gia von hang ban 38.250 39.862
Lai gop 12.750 12.638
Chi ph ban hang 5.100 5.314
Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep 2.550 2.986
Li nhuan trc thue 5.100 4.338
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (32%) 1.632 1.388
Ten
san
pham
Khoi lng
san pham
hang hoa
(hien vat)
n gia ban
(1.000)
Giam gia
hang ban
(1.000/sp)
Chiet khau
hang ban
(1.000/sp)
Gia von n
v (1.000)
Chi ph ban
hang va
QLDN
(1.000/sp)
KH TH KH TH KH TH KH TH KH TH KH TH
A 300 320 100 95 1 1,5 0 0,5 50 55 3 3,5
B 500 650 50 55 2 2,5 0,5 1 30 25 4 3,5
C 700 650 20 22 0,5 1 - - 10 12 1 0,8


226

Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) 3.468 2.950
Tra co tc 3.118 2.000
Li nhuan gi lai 350 950

Bang can oi ke toan rut gon (n v tnh: trieu ong):

Khoan muc au ky Cuoi ky
Tien mat 510 310
Tai quy 120 80
Gi ngan hang 390 230
Phai thu 1.273 1.704
Khach hang 1.105 1.644
Khac 168 60
Hang ton kho 3.100 2.938
Tai san co nh (rong) 12.040 11.940
Nguyen gia 13.500 14.000
Khau hao (luy ke) (1.460) (2.060)
Tong tai san 16.923 16.892
N ngan han 1.043 1.301
Vay ngan han 400 420
Phai tra ngi ban 600 700
Phai tra khac 43 181
Ni dai han 5.530 4.291
Nguon von chu s hu 10.350 11.300
Nguon von kinh doanh (von gop) 10.000 10.000
Li nhuan gi lai 350 1.300
Tong nguon von 16.923 16.892




227

Yeu cau:
a) Lap bang bao cao dong tien (bao cao lu chuyen tien te) vao cuoi
nam nay theo hai phng phap: gian tiep va trc tiep.
b) Phan tch bao cao dong tien va lap c.

Bai tap 10
Da vao bang can oi ke toan va bao cao thu nhap cua cong ty VDEC cuoi
nam 2004 (bang 5.10 va 5.11 chng 5). Tnh:
a) S o Dupont cua cong ty VDEC nam 2004.
b) Da vao s o Dupont va tm c, anh gia tnh hnh tai chnh cua
cong ty nay vao cuoi nam 2004.
Bai tap 11
The hien s tac ong t cac nghiep vu kinh te c liet ke di ay oi vi
tai san lu ong, ty so thanh toan hien hanh, va li nhuan rong. S dung dau (+)
e the hien s gia tang hoac dau (-) e the hien s sut giam va (0) e the hien
s khong thay oi hoac khong xac nh c. Hay t at mot so gia nh can
thiet va xem nh ty so thanh toan hien hanh ban au la so ln hn 1,0. (Lu y:
ban can co mot nen tang kien thc ke toan tot e co the tra li cac cau hoi di
ay, con neu khong ban ch tra li cho nhng cau hoi ma ban co the giai quyet)

Tong tai
san lu
ong
Ty so
thanh toan
hien hanh
Li nhuan
rong
a- Tien mat gia tang thong qua phat
hanh cac co phan thng bo sung

b- Hang hoa c ban va thu bang tien
mat

c- Thanh toan khoan n thue thu nhap
doanh nghiep cua nam trc

d- Ban tai san co nh thap hn gia tr
so sach



228

e- Tai san co nh c ban cao hn gia
tr so sach

f- Hang hoa c ban va a vao khoan
phai thu

g- Thanh toan cac khoan n tn dung
thng mai cho hang hoa c mua
trc o.

h- Co tc tien mat c thong bao va
chi tra

i- Tien mat gia tang thong qua vay n
ngan han ngan hang

j- Chiet khau giay nhan n ngan han
k- Chng khoan ngan han c ban vi
mc chi ph thap

l- Tam ng cho cong nhan vien
m. Chi ph hoat ong trong ky c chi
tra

n. Phat hanh lenh phieu en cac nha
cung cap tn dung thng mai thay v
a vao khoan phai tra.

o. Phat hanh trai phieu 10 nam e thanh
toan cho cac khoan phai tra

p. Mot tai san co nh a c khau hao
het ngng s dung

q. Khoan phai thu c khach hang
thanh toan

r. Mua sam cac thiet b bang viec phat
hanh cac giay nhan n ngan han

s. Hang hoa c mua bang tn dung
thng mai

t. Thue d kien phai tra gia tang


229

Bai tap 12
Cac cau hoi di ay ung ung hay sai?
a. Ty so n tren von co phan cua mot cong ty luon luon ln hn 1
b. Ty so thanh toan nhanh th luon nho hn ty so thanh toan hien hanh.
c. Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan th luon nho hn ty suat sinh li tren
tong tai san.
d. Mot chien dch quang cao quan trong c thc hien bi mot cong ty
my pham se co khuynh hng lam giam thu nhap va nguyen nhan dan
en cac co phan c ban mc gia P/E thap.

Bai tap 13
Trong moi trng hp di ay, hay giai thch ngan gon cong ty nao trong 2
cong ty c liet ke dng nh co ac iem la at gia tr cao hn oi vi moi ch
tieu:
a. Ty so n tren von co phan: cong ty tau bien va cong ty phan mem may
vi tnh.
b. Ty le chi tra co tc: cong ty thc pham va cong ty o hoa may vi tnh.
c. Ky thu tien bnh quan: he thong sieu th va cong ty ban hang qua th at
hang.
d. Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap P/E: Cong ty nao vet bun va cong ty
ien t.

Bai tap 14
Cong ty H.R.Pickett hien ang co 500.000 $ n va chi ph tra lai vay hang
nam la 10%. Doanh so ban hang nam cua cong ty la 2 trieu $, thue suat thue thu
nhap doanh nghiep la 30% va ty suat li nhuan tren doanh thu la 5%. Neu cong
ty khong the duy tr ty so kha nang thanh toan lai vay t nhat la 5 lan th ngan
hang cua cong ty se t choi nhng khoan vay mi va doanh nghiep se lam vao
tnh the pha san. Hoi ty so kha nang thanh toan lai vay cua cong ty la bao nhieu?



230

Bai tap 15
Cong ty Midwest Packaging hien ang co ty so ROE mc thap nhat la
3%, nhng ban quan tr cua cong ty hien ang thc hien mot ke hoach kinh
doanh mi nham cai thien ieu nay. Ke hoach mi se huy ong tong n vay
chiem ty le 60% va do o chi ph tra lai vay se la 300.000 $ mot nam. Ban quan
tr cua cong ty d kien thu nhap EBIT la 1.000.000 $ ng vi mc doanh so la
10.000.000 $ va hieu suat s dung tong tai san la 2,0. Gia nh thue suat thue
thu nhap doanh nghiep la 34%. Hoi neu thc hien ke hoach kinh doanh mi th
ty so ROE cua cong ty se c cai thien la bao nhieu?

Bai tap 16
Cong ty Central City Construction va c thanh lap va co nhu cau au t
von vao tong tai san la 1 trieu $, va cong ty mong i se co ty so EBIT/ tong tai
san la 20%. Cong ty se khong au t vao cac chng khoan do o tat ca thu nhap
cua cong ty eu la thu nhap t hoat ong. Va neu vay cong ty co the tai tr bang
n vay len en 50% tren tong tai san va n vay co lai suat la 8%. Gia nh thue
suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep la 40%, hoi s khac biet ROE d kien gia
phng an cong ty tai tr 50% n vay va phng an cong ty tai tr 100% von co
phan thng?

Bai tap 17
Co so lieu ve tnh hnh tai chnh cua doanh nghiep tai 3 nam nh sau:
Tong tai san = 20.000 trieu ong, lai suat n vay dai han la 12%/nam
(b%).
Cac tai lieu khac qua 3 nam: (n v tnh: trieu ong)
Nam tai chnh Nam 2003 Nam 2004 Nam 2005
Von vay 5.000 10.000 15.000
Von chu s hu 15.000 10.000 5.000
Li nhuan trc thue va lai vay 1.500 1.700 2.400
Thue suat thue thu nhap DN 28% 28% 28%


231

Yeu cau:
a) Phan tch cau truc von cua doanh nghiep qua 3 nam tai chnh.
b) Hay xep hang cau truc von t tot en xau dan va chng minh.
c) Trong nam 2006, ong giam oc tai chnh cua doanh nghiep d bao li
nhuan trc thue va lai vay khong oi so vi nam 2005, nen a quyet
nh giam nguon von vay xuong con 12.000 v cho rang se lam giam
hieu qua s dung von cua doanh nghiep. Vi cac ieu kien khac
khong oi, hay nhan xet ve quyet nh cua giam oc tai chnh va
chng minh bang so lieu.





















232

Phu luc: Bang phan phoi chuan
Z* 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09
0,00 0,5000 0,4960 0,4920 0,4880 0,4840 0,4801 0,4761 0,4721 0,4681 0,4641
0,10 0,4602 0,4562 0,4522 0,4483 0,4443 0,4404 0,4364 0,4325 0,4286 0,4247
0,20 0,4207 0,4168 0,4129 0,4090 0,4052 0,4013 0,3974 0,3936 0,3897 0,3859
0,30 0,3821 0,3783 0,3745 0,3707 0,3669 0,3632 0,3594 0,3557 0,3520 0,3483
0,40 0,3446 0,3409 0,3372 0,3336 0,3300 0,3264 0,3228 0,3192 0,3156 0,3121
0,50 0,3085 0,3050 0,3015 0,2981 0,2946 0,2912 0,2877 0,2843 0,2810 0,2776
0,60 0,2743 0,2709 0,2676 0,2643 0,2611 0,2578 0,2546 0,2514 0,2483 0,2451
0,70 0,2420 0,2389 0,2358 0,2327 0,2296 0,2266 0,2236 0,2206 0,2177 0,2148
0,80 0,2119 0,2090 0,2061 0,2033 0,2005 0,1977 0,1949 0,1922 0,1894 0,1867
0,90 0,1841 0,1814 0,1788 0,1762 0,1736 0,1711 0,1685 0,1660 0,1635 0,1611
1,00 0,1587 0,1562 0,1539 0,1515 0,1492 0,1469 0,1446 0,1423 0,1401 0,1379
1,10 0,1357 0,1335 0,1314 0,1292 0,1271 0,1251 0,1230 0,1210 0,1190 0,1170
1,20 0,1151 0,1131 0,1112 0,1093 0,1075 0,1056 0,1038 0,1020 0,1003 0,0985
1,30 0,0968 0,0951 0,0934 0,0918 0,0901 0,0885 0,0869 0,0853 0,0838 0,0823
1,40 0,0808 0,0793 0,0778 0,0764 0,0749 0,0735 0,0721 0,0708 0,0694 0,0681
1,50 0,0668 0,0655 0,0643 0,0630 0,0618 0,0606 0,0594 0,0582 0,0571 0,0559
1,60 0,0548 0,0537 0,0526 0,0516 0,0505 0,0495 0,0485 0,0475 0,0465 0,0455
1,70 0,0446 0,0436 0,0427 0,0418 0,0409 0,0401 0,0446 0,0392 0,0384 0,0375
1,80 0,0359 0,0351 0,0344 0,0336 0,0329 0,0322 0,0314 0,0307 0,0301 0,0294
1,90 0,0287 0,0281 0,0274 0,0268 0,0262 0,0256 0,0250 0,0244 0,0239 0,0233
2,00 0,0228 0,0222 0,0217 0,0212 0,0207 0,0202 0,0197 0,0192 0,0188 0,0183
2,20 0,0139 0,0136 0,0132 0,0129 0,0125 0,0122 0,0119 0,0116 0,0113 0,0110
2,40 0,0082 0,0080 0,0078 0,0075 0,0073 0,0071 0,0069 0,0068 0,0066 0,0064
2,60 0,0047 0,0045 0,0044 0,0043 0,0041 0,0040 0,0039 0,0038 0,0037 0,0036
2,80 0,0026 0,0025 0,0024 0,0023 0,0023 0,0022 0,0021 0,0021 0,0020 0,0019
3,00 0,0013 0,0013 0,0013 0,0012 0,0012 0,0011 0,0011 0,0011 0,0010 0,0010
3,50 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002
4,00 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000
4,50 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000
5,00 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000
Z*: la gia tr tuyet oi cua z.



233


TAI LIEU THAM KHAO

Tai lieu trong nc:
1. TS.Pham Van Dc ang Kim Cng, Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh
(2005), NXB Tong Hp TP.HCM.
2. Ths.Nguyen Tan Bnh, Phan tch hoat ong doanh nghiep (2000), NXB
ai hoc quoc gia TP.HCM.
3. PGS.TS. Tran Ngoc Th (chu bien), Tai chnh doanh nghiep hien ai
(2005), NXB Thong ke.
4. PGS.TS.Nguyen Nang Phuc, Phan tch kinh te doanh nghiep (2004),
NXB Tai chnh.
Tai lieu nc ngoai:
5. Myers, Brealey (2000), Principles of Corporate Finance Sixth Edition,
McGraw Hill.
6. Gerald I.White (1997), The Analysis and use of Financial statements,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
7. Wayne J.Morse - James R.Davis - Hartgraves, Management Accounting
(1991), Addision Wesley.






234


MUC LUC

CHUONG z................................................................................................................... 2
TONG @UAT VE PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH................. 2
1.1. NOI DUNG PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH..................................... 2
Khai niem.................................................................................................................... 2
oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh........................................................ 3
Nhiem vu cu the cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh ............................................ 4
1.2. CAC PHNG PHAP S DUNG TRONG PHAN TCH.................................... 5
Phng phap so sanh .................................................................................................. 5
Phng phap thay the lien hoan................................................................................ 9
Phng phap so chenh lech..................................................................................... 13
Phng phap lien he can oi.................................................................................... 14
Phng phap hoi quy ................................................................................................ 16
1.3. TO CHC THC HIEN PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH............. 34
Phan loai cac loai hnh phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh. ...................................... 35
To chc phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh trong doanh nghiep.............................. 36
CHUONG z ................................................................................................................ 40
PHAN TCH CHI PH VA GIA THANH........................................................ 40
2.1. PHAN LOAI CHI PH........................................................................................... 40
Phan loai chung......................................................................................................... 40
Phan loai theo ke toan quan tr ............................................................................... 42
2.2. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN CHI PH.............................. 46
Tong mc chi ph thc hien...................................................................................... 46
Ty suat chi ph ........................................................................................................... 46
Tiet kiem chi ph ....................................................................................................... 47
2.3. PHAN TCH CAC KHOAN MUC CHI PH CHU YEU.................................... 48
Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep......................................... 49
Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep. ................................................ 53
D bao chi ph san xuat chung bang hoi quy n................................................... 57
2.4. PHAN TCH BIEN ONG GIA THANH............................................................ 60
Phan tch bien ong gia thanh n v ...................................................................... 60
Phan tch bien ong to ng gia thanh san pham so sanh c................................. 62
Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra............................................... 67
CHUONG ................................................................................................................ 73
PHAN TCH TNH HNH TIEU THU .............................................................. 73
3.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG VE TNH HNH TIEU THU HANG HOA .................... 73
Y ngha va nhiem vu phan tch................................................................................ 73


235

Phan tch khai quat................................................................................................... 74
Phan tch bo phan..................................................................................................... 76
3.2. NGUYEN NHAN ANH HNG EN TNH HNH TIEU THU ....................... 78
Nguyen nhan chu quan............................................................................................. 79
Nguyen nhan khach quan......................................................................................... 82
3.3. D BAO LNG TIEU THU VI PHNG PHAP HOI QUY A BIEN...... 89
Khai quat................................................................................................................... 89
nh dang phng trnh the hien moi quan he ...................................................... 90
Thu thap d lieu va tnh toan nhng gia tr thong ke ac trng.......................... 91
Thc hien hoi quy ..................................................................................................... 94
D bao vi mo hnh hoi quy ..................................................................................... 99
CHUONG q .............................................................................................................. 101
PHAN TCH LOI NHUAN................................................................................. 101
4.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN LI NHUAN..................... 101
Muc tieu cua doanh nghiep.................................................................................... 101
Y ngha cua li nhuan............................................................................................. 101
Ch tieu thc hien ................................................................................................... 101
Ch tieu quan he ...................................................................................................... 102
4.2. LI NHUAN TRONG MOI QUAN HE VI DOANH THU VA CHI PH...... 102
Yeu to khoi lng san pham.................................................................................. 104
Yeu to chi ph bat bien ........................................................................................... 105
Yeu to chi ph kha bie n .......................................................................................... 106
Yeu to gia ban......................................................................................................... 106
Yeu to tong hp ...................................................................................................... 107
4.3. PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN T HOAT ONG KINH DOANH......... 108
Phan tch li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh....................................................... 108
Phan tch cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh........... 111
CHUONG ............................................................................................................... 118
PHAN TCH TAI CHNH................................................................................... 118
5.1. KHAI QUAT VE BAO CAO TAI CHNH ........................................................ 118
Khai niem ve bao cao tai chnh............................................................................. 118
Muc ch bao cao tai chnh .................................................................................... 118
oi tng cua bao cao tai chnh............................................................................ 119
Nguyen tac lap bao cao tai chnh .......................................................................... 121
5.2. PHAN TCH CAC TY SO TAI CHNH............................................................. 132
Muc ch phan tch cac ty so tai chnh.................................................................. 132
Cac ty so tai chnh .................................................................................................. 133
Phng phap anh gia cac ty so tai chnh............................................................. 148
Mot so van e gap pha i khi phan tch ty so tai chnh .......................................... 154
5.3. PHAN TCH BAO CAO DONG TIEN............................................................... 155


236

Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc quoc te ve ke toan International
Accounting Standards) ........................................................................................... 155
Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc KTVN VAS) ..................................... 174
Phng phap phan tch bao cao dong tien............................................................ 189
CHUONG o .............................................................................................................. 194
PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON........................................................................ 194
6.1. CAC QUYET NH CAU TRUC VON............................................................. 194
Khai niem................................................................................................................ 194
Cau truc von toi u................................................................................................. 195
Cac gia nh cua phan tch cau truc von .............................................................. 195
Cac yeu to khac can xem xet trong quyet nh cau truc von ............................. 196
6.2. PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON.......................................................................... 202
Phan tch EBIT - EPS............................................................................................. 202
Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat.............................................................. 211
Xac nh cau truc von da tren ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH: ..................... 215
PHAN BAI TA P .................................................................................................... 220