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IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report

IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report

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Published by rryan123123
March 2012
March 2012

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Published by: rryan123123 on Apr 01, 2012
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12/15/2013

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14 March 201
HIGHLIGHTS
 
Oil
 
futures
 
prices
 
moved
 
higher
 
in
 
tandem
 
with
 
escalating
 
supply
side
 
risks.
 
Geopolitical
 
tension
 
and
 
unplanned
 
outages
 
in
 
non
OPEC
 
countries
 
dented
 
oil
 
supply,
 
while
 
potential
 
additional
 
losses
 
relating
 
to
 
Iran
 
add
 
more
 
uncertainty
 
for
 
the
 
crude
 
outlook.
 
Futures
 
prices
 
were
 
last
 
trading
 
around
 
$125/bbl
 
(Brent)
 
and
 
$106/bbl
 
(WTI).
 
 
Global
 
demand
 
is
 
expected
 
to
 
grow
 
by
 
0.8
 
mb/d
 
(+0.9%)
 
in
 
2012
 
to
 
89.9
 
mb/d,
 
unchanged
 
from
 
last
 
month’s
 
projection.
 
The
 
relatively
 
subdued
 
economic
 
backdrop
 
 –
 
with
 
a
 
global
 
GDP
 
expansion
 
of 
 
3.3%
 
foreseen
 
for
 
2012
 
(3.8%
 
in
 
2011)
 
 –
 
and
 
high
 
oil
 
prices
 
both
 
restrain
 
any
 
upside
 
momentum
 
for
 
consumption.
 
 
Non
OPEC
 
supply
 
grew
 
by
 
only
 
0.3
 
mb/d
 
annually
 
for
 
1Q12,
 
as
 
geopolitical
 
and
 
technical
 
outages
 
dented
 
growth.
 
Unplanned
 
outages
 
in
 
the
 
North
 
Sea
 
and
 
Canada
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
geopolitical
 
disputes
 
in
 
Africa
 
and
 
the
 
Middle
 
East
 
reduced
 
output.
 
The
 
Americas
 
and
 
the
 
Former
 
Soviet
 
Union
 
support
 
overall
 
growth
 
for
 
2012
 
at
 
0.7
 
mb/d.
 
 
OPEC
 
crude
 
supply
 
rose
 
by
 
315
 
kb/d
 
February,
 
led
 
by
 
a
 
three
decade
 
peak
 
in
 
Saudi
 
output
 
and
 
a
 
sharp
 
recovery
 
in
 
Libyan
 
production.
 
Output
 
of 
 
31.42
 
mb/d
 
was
 
the
 
highest
 
level
 
since
 
mid
2008.
 
The
 
‘call
 
on
 
OPEC
 
crude
 
and
 
stock
 
change’
 
for
 
2012
 
is
 
raised
 
by
 
0.2
 
mb/d
 
for
 
2Q12
 
and
 
3Q12,
 
to
 
average
 
of 
 
30.1
 
mb/d,
 
due
 
to
 
lower
 
forecast
 
non
OPEC
 
supplies.
 
 
Global
 
refinery
 
crude
 
throughputs
 
are
 
largely
 
unchanged
 
for
 
1Q12,
 
as
 
weaker
than
expected
 
non
OECD
 
readings
 
were
 
offset
 
by
 
a
 
counter
seasonal
 
increase
 
in
 
US
 
runs
 
in
 
February.
 
4Q11
 
runs,
 
however,
 
were
 
a
 
sizable
 
300
 
kb/d
 
lower,
 
falling
 
120
 
kb/d
 
y
o
y.
 
Runs
 
should
 
rise
 
180
 
kb/d
 
in
 
1Q12
 
and
 
600
 
kb/d
 
in
 
2Q12,
 
to
 
74.9
 
mb/d
 
and
 
74.5
 
mb/d,
 
respectively.
 
 
OECD
 
industry
 
oil
 
stocks
 
increased
 
by
 
a
 
muted
 
13.6
 
mb
 
to
 
2
 
614
 
mb
 
in
 
January,
 
remaining
 
below
 
the
 
five
year
 
average
 
for
 
a
 
seventh
 
consecutive
 
month.
 
Forward
 
demand
 
cover
 
rose
 
to
 
57.8
 
days.
 
February
 
preliminary
 
data
 
indicate
 
a
 
seasonal
 
12.6
 
mb
 
drop
 
in
 
OECD
 
industry
 
stocks.
 
 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS
 
HIGHLIGHTS ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1A HEADY BREW ................................................................................................................................................................................ 4DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 5Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 5Global Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 6North America .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7Europe ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8Pacific ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 9Non-OECD ................................................................................................................................................................................... 10China .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 12Other Non-OECD .................................................................................................................................................................. 13Brazilian Gasoline: A Bitter Mix ..................................................................................................................................... 14SUPPLY ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15OPEC Crude Oil Supply ............................................................................................................................................................. 16European Refiners Tapped Other OPEC Supply to Replace Lost Libyan Barrels ..................................................... 19OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20North America ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20North Sea .................................................................................................................................................................................. 21Other OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................... 22Non-OECD ................................................................................................................................................................................... 23Former Soviet Union .............................................................................................................................................................. 23Latin America ........................................................................................................................................................................... 24Asia ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25Africa .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25Middle East ................................................................................................................................................................................ 26OECD STOCKS ................................................................................................................................................................................ 27Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 27OECD Inventories at End-January and Revisions to Preliminary Data .................................................................... 27Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes .............................................................................................................. 28OECD North America ........................................................................................................................................................... 28OECD Europe .......................................................................................................................................................................... 29OECD Pacific ........................................................................................................................................................................... 30Recent Developments in Singapore and China Stocks ......................................................................................................... 31PRICES ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33Market Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................... 33Futures Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................ 35Activity Levels .......................................................................................................................................................................... 35Market Regulation ................................................................................................................................................................... 37High Frequency Traders: Flash Crashers or Liquidity Providers? ........................................................................... 38Spot Crude Oil Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 40REFINING ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 45Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45Global Refining Overview ........................................................................................................................................................... 45OECD Refinery Throughput ...................................................................................................................................................... 47Petroplus Assets Back in Action .......................................................................................................................................... 51Non-OECD Refinery Throughput ............................................................................................................................................ 52Russian Refinery Runs Boosted by Higher Prices ............................................................................................................. 53TABLES ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 56
 
 
The
 
IEA
 
is
 
Seeking
 
to
 
Recruit
 
a
 
Head
 
of 
 
the
 
Oil
 
Industry
 
and
 
Markets
 
Division
 
The
 
International
 
Energy
 
Agency
 
(IEA)
 
is
 
seeking
 
a
 
dynamic
 
and
 
experienced
 
energy
 
expert
 
to
 
serve
 
as
 
the
 
Editor
 
of 
 
the
 
IEA
 
Oil 
 
Market 
 
Report 
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
leading
 
its
 
Oil
 
Industry
 
and
 
Markets
 
Division.
 
He
 
or
 
she
 
will
 
supervise
 
and
 
co
ordinate
 
the
 
IEA's
 
work
 
on
 
the
 
monitoring
 
of 
 
and
 
reporting
 
on
 
oil
 
industry
 
and
 
market
 
developments.
 
Major
 
responsibilities
 
include:
 
 
Plan,
 
lead
 
and
 
co
ordinate
 
the
 
preparation
 
of 
 
the
 
IEA's
 
monthly
 
Oil 
 
Market 
 
Report 
,
 
annual
 
Medium
Term
 
Oil 
 
Market 
 
Report 
 
and
 
Annual
 
Statistical
 
Supplement,
 
the
 
presentation
 
of 
 
results
 
for
 
the
 
Governing
 
Board
 
and
 
the
 
Standing
 
Group
 
on
 
the
 
Oil
 
Market
 
(SOM),
 
and
 
follow
 
up
 
with
 
media,
 
governments
 
and
 
the
 
oil
 
industry.
 
 
Advise
 
Governments
 
on
 
recent
 
trends
 
in
 
the
 
global
 
oil
 
market
 
and
 
medium
term
 
developments
 
and
 
analysis
 
on
 
the
 
role
 
of 
 
physical
 
and
 
financial
 
markets
 
in
 
oil
 
price
 
formation,
 
particularly
 
highlighting
 
policy
related
 
issues
 
and
 
recommending
 
appropriate
 
action;
 
plan
 
and
 
coordinate
 
meetings
 
of 
 
the
 
Standing
 
Group
 
on
 
the
 
Oil
 
Market.
 
 
Supervise
 
the
 
work
 
of 
 
professional
 
and
 
support
 
staff 
 
and
 
consultants.
 
 
Develop
 
and
 
maintain
 
close
 
contacts
 
with
 
government
 
officials
 
on
 
important
 
policy
 
developments,
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
with
 
oil
 
companies
 
and
 
consultants.
 
 
Co
operate
 
with
 
other
 
Divisions
 
in
 
the
 
IEA
 
on,
 
inter
 
alia,
 
oil
 
industry
 
aspects
 
of 
 
their
 
work,
 
country
 
reviews,
 
the
 
development
 
of 
 
long
range
 
energy
 
outlooks
 
and
 
environmental
 
issues.
 
 
Provide
 
market
 
information
 
and
 
expertise
 
during
 
oil
 
emergencies
 
and
 
support
 
and
 
participate
 
in
 
exercises
 
related
 
to
 
maintaining
 
emergency
 
response
 
capabilities.
 
The
 
ideal
 
candidate
 
will
 
possess:
 
 
An
 
advanced
 
university
 
degree
 
in
 
economics,
 
science,
 
engineering,
 
or
 
a
 
related
 
discipline.
 
 
Ten
 
to
 
fifteen
 
years'
 
experience
 
in
 
the
 
international
 
oil
 
industry
 
with
 
experience
 
in
 
the
 
field
 
of 
 
oil
 
and
 
energy
 
policy.
 
Specific
 
areas
 
of 
 
expertise
 
include
 
any
 
or
 
all
 
of 
 
the
 
following:
 
oil
 
production,
 
refining
 
and
 
distribution,
 
oil
 
trade,
 
oil
 
stock
 
policy
 
or
 
product
 
quality
 
issues.
 
 
Strong
 
analytical,
 
communication
 
and
 
interpersonal
 
skills,
 
political
 
sensitivity
 
and
 
ability
 
to
 
establish
 
and
 
maintain
 
effective
 
working
 
relations
 
with
 
senior
 
government
 
and
 
industry
 
officials.
 
 
Proven
 
ability
 
in
 
team
building
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
in
 
planning,
 
co
ordinating
 
and
 
supervising
 
team
 
work.
 
Strong
 
achievement
 
orientation
 
and
 
personal
 
initiative,
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
the
 
ability
 
to
 
work
 
under
 
pressure,
 
often
 
to
 
tight
 
deadlines.
 
 
An
 
excellent
 
level
 
of 
 
oral
 
and
 
written
 
communication
 
skills
 
and
 
excellent
 
drafting
 
ability
 
in
 
English;
 
working
 
knowledge
 
of 
 
French
 
and
 
other
 
languages
 
would
 
be
 
an
 
advantage.
 
The
 
IEA
 
operates
 
as
 
an
 
autonomous
 
agency
 
within
 
the
 
Organisation
 
for
 
Economic
 
Co
operation
 
and
 
Development
 
(OECD).
 
The
 
full
 
vacancy
 
note
 
and
 
on
line
 
application
 
form
 
is
 
available
 
on
 
the
 
OECD
 
website
 
at
 
www.oecd.org
.
 
Click
 
on
 
 Job
 
Vacancies
Head 
 
of 
 
Division:
 
Oil 
 
industry 
 
&
 
Markets
 
Division
 
Job
 
Reference
 
No.
 
08112
.
 
The
 
position
 
will
 
start
 
1
 
July
 
2012.
 
On
line
 
applications
 
(in
 
English
 
or
 
French)
 
from
 
nationals
 
of 
 
OECD
 
member
 
countries
 
should
 
be
 
submitted
 
by 
 
no
 
later 
 
than
 
midnight 
 
(CET)
 
on
 
25
 
March
 
2012
.
 
The
 
OECD
 
is
 
an
 
equal 
 
opportunity 
 
employer 
 
offering
 
an
 
attractive
 
remuneration
 
 package
 
an
 
encourages
 
applications
 
 from
 
al
 
qualified 
 
candidates.
 
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques
 

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