Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
2Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
ANZ Commodity Daily 599 050412

ANZ Commodity Daily 599 050412

Ratings: (0)|Views: 449|Likes:
Published by ChrisBecker

More info:

Published by: ChrisBecker on Apr 05, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

04/05/2012

pdf

text

original

 
 
ANZ RESEARCH
COMMODITY DAILY
 
Contacts: Mark Pervan +613 9273 3716 | mark.pervan@anz.comNatalie Robertson +613 9273 3415 | natalie.robertson@anz.com
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS OVERNIGHT WRAP
 
Oil slipped after US crude stocks rose by 9.0mbbls
 
Gold fell on reduced expectations of QE3 in the US
 
Base metals plunged on worries over Europe
 
Coal down. Worries over Indonesia’s potential export tax
OVERNIGHT RANKED PRICE MOVES (%)
 
(3.8)(3.2)(3.2)(3.0)(2.6)(2.5)(2.3)(1.6)(1.5)(1.5)(1.4)(1.0)(0.5)0.3(5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0SilverCopperNickelLeadPlatinumWTI OilZincCoal (NEWC)GoldAluminiumTinS&P 500Baltic FreightUSD (DXY)
 
WEEK-TO-DATE RANKED PRICE MOVES (%)
 
(3.7)(3.5)(2.6)(2.2)(2.1)(1.8)(0.6)(0.5)(0.1)0.40.81.01.21.7(5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0WTI OilAluminiumGoldPlatinumSilverCoal (NEWC)ZincS&P 500CopperBaltic FreightUSD (DXY)LeadTinNickel
 
Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy
 
Overnight Themes – 
It was a risk-off session overnight withthe focus back on Europe following a poorly subscribed Spanishgovernment bond auction. Spain sold fewer government bondsthan hoped and following the auction yields in the secondarymarket for Spanish government debt advanced by 20-30 bpsacross the curve. Italian (+21bps) and Portuguese (+26bps)government yields all increased. The European Central Bank(ECB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, as unanimouslyexpected by the market. The ECB appears to be reorientingmonetary policy back to a more traditional approach, withpolicy focusing on maintaining price stability. Commoditymarkets were hit, despite a positive employment read from theUS. ADP private sector employment rose by 209K (market:206K) in March, whilst the previous month’s data was revisedup by 14K to 230K. Non-farm payrolls data are released onFriday night, and we expect an increase of 220K (Market:205K, Last: 227K). The unemployment rate will also be a focalpoint given its importance for monetary policy – we expect theunemployment rate to remain around 8.3% near term.
 
 
Crude benchmarks slipped
, following the negative tone inoutside markets. WTI was further pressured by the US DOEdata showing another sharp 9.0mbbls build in crude stockpiles(Market: +2.5mbbls) to the highest level since late June 2011,despite just a 500kbbls increase in crude imports. Most of thebuild came from higher production levels in the Gulf Coast of 6.0mbbls/day, potentially catching up after recent shippingdelays in the Houston channel. Brent’s premium to US crudewidened further to US$21.5/bbl, given the weakness in US oilprices. Although we think the dip in prices could present buyingopportunities for investment funds going long oil, creatingsome upside risk near term.
 
Gold fell 1.5% to US$1,621/oz
, with prices removing nearlyall the gains it had accumulated since the beginning of theyear. Prices remained under selling pressure after the FOMCsignalled it saw no need to add more easing unless growthstalls, firming the US dollar in the process. Although the weakerthan expected service sector index in the US triggered a mildrecovery in prices.
 
Base metals plunged
, still under pressure as marketsreassess QE3 in the US and Europe crawled back into theheadlines after the disappointing Spanish bond auction. Copperprices fell back towards the middle of the recent trading range,but held above the 200-day moving average. Markets will likelyfocus on US non-farm payrolls this Friday. With our house viewfor US employment data to come in above consensus, we couldsee room for potential upside in copper prices.
 
 
Newcastle coal futures declined 1.6% to US$107/t
in linewith other commodities. Indonesia’s consideration of a 25%coal export tax next year stirred some anxiety for local coalproducers who are increasingly more reliant on price-sensitivebuyers from India and China. Although we maintain that such atax would be controversial with implementation likely to bedelayed, as local miners seek compensation.
April 5, 2012
 
 
COMMODITY DATA
Close1 Day1 Wk1 Mth3 MthClose1 Day1 Wk1 Mth3 Mth
LME BASE METALS
(US$/t)
LME BASE METALS
(kt)
Aluminium 2,053(1.5) (3.5) (5.2) (3.8)Aluminium 5,065(0.1) (0.2) (0.5)2.1 Copper 8,359(3.2) (0.1)0.8 7.6 Copper 260(0.4)1.4(7.6) (28.7) Nickel 17,785(3.2)1.7(5.4) (8.4)Nickel 101 0.1 0.7 2.6 8.4 Zinc 1,976(2.3) (0.6) (0.9)2.5 Zinc 896(0.1) (0.3)3.3 9.3 Lead 2,007(3.0)1.0(2.5)2.1 Lead 374(0.5) (0.7)2.8 5.8 Tin 22,631(1.4)1.2 2.0 10.9 Tin 13 0.0 2.6 15.9 18.1
PRECIOUS METALS
(US$/oz)
Close1 Day1 Wk1 Mth3 Mth
Gold 1,621(1.5) (2.6) (3.8) (1.3)Gold (A$/oz) 1,579(0.6) (1.6) (0.9) (1.0)S&P 500 1,399(1.0) (0.5)3.4 8.2 Silver 31.4(3.8) (2.1) (6.1)4.7 VIX Volatility Index 16 5.0 6.3(13.8) (21.9) Platinum 1,600(2.6) (2.2) (1.9)7.1 CRB Index 305(1.9) (2.1) (3.0) (2.8) Palladium 636(2.8) (1.9) (7.4) (0.8)LME Metals Index 3,540(2.7) (0.6) (1.2)3.4
ENERGY
(US$/bbl)
Close1 Day1 Wk1 Mth3 Mth
WTI Oil* 101(2.5) (3.7) (4.4)0.6Brent Oil* 123(1.7) (1.2) (1.1)9.3 Baltic Freight Rate 926(0.5)0.4 16.0(22.4) Sing Gasoil 0.5% 137 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.6 Baltic Capesize 1,475 1.3 8.4(2.6) (26.0)Sing Fuel Oil
180cst
 
(US$/t)
747(1.0) (0.5)0.6 1.0 Baltic Panamax 1,043(0.6)0.3 21.6(25.1)
OTHER
(US$/t)
Baltic Handysize 552(0.7) (2.5)21.1 0.7China HR Coil (RmB/t) 4,375 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.5
Close1 Day1 Wk1 Mth3 Mth
Richards Bay Coal API4 103(0.7) (1.1) (1.1) (2.1)Newcastle Coal*** 107(1.6) (1.8) (2.0) (5.8)DXY - USD Index 79.7 0.3 0.8 0.0(2.0) Australia Coking Coal** 208 (0.4) (4.1) (9.6)AUD/USD - Aussie 1.026(0.9) (1.0) (3.0) (0.3) Iron Ore Spot 148 0.0(0.1)3.2 3.8 NZD/USD - Kiwi 0.815(1.0) (0.1) (0.6)2.5
% ChangeCurrencies% ChangeKey Indices% ChangeFreightCommoditiesInventories% Change% Change
 
105110115120125130Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
NEWCASTLE COAL
US$/t1,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,000Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
GOLD
US$/oz708090100110120Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
WTI OIL
US$/bbl0.940.971.001.031.061.091.12Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
AUD
A$16,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,000Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
NICKEL
US$/t6,5007,5008,5009,50010,500Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
COPPER
US$/t1,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,900Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
ALUMINIUM
US$/t1,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,600Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
ZINC
US$/tUS$/t25.030.035.040.045.050.0Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
SILVER
US$/oz
 
Notes: * Front-month futures ** Weekly prices ***Newcastle ICE coal futures contractSources: Bloomberg, McCloskey, ANZ Commodity Strategy
 
 
ANZ FORECASTS
ANZ Forecast Table
1
 
COMMODITY
UnitJun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13BASE METALS
Aluminium US$/lb 1.18 1.09 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.06Copper US$/lb 4.16 4.07 3.41 3.62 3.85 3.98 4.08 4.08 4.13 4.15 3.95Nickel US$/lb 11.05 9.98 8.34 8.70 9.15 9.70 10.15 10.25 10.40 10.45 10.15Zinc US$/lb 1.02 1.01 0.86 0.87 0.90 0.91 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.04Lead US$/lb 1.16 1.11 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.07Tin US$/lb 13.08 11.16 9.45 9.09 9.45 9.75 10.30 10.55 10.80 10.95 10.80
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold US$/oz 1,508 1,706 1,683 1,632 1,740 1,790 1,815 1,855 1,870 1,830 1,770Platinum US$/oz 1,785 1,771 1,531 1,526 1,685 1,700 1,700 1,765 1,795 1,765 1,725Palladium US$/oz 760 752 630 673 700 730 775 820 850 850 838Silver US$/oz 38.5 38.9 31.8 31.2 34.8 35.3 36.2 37.4 37.5 36.9 36.3
ENERGY
WTI NYMEX US$/bbl 102.5 89.5 94.1 102.4 107.0 108.5 111.0 114.5 116.5 116.0 114.5Dated Brent US$/bbl 117.0 112.9 109.3 115.8 123.5 122.5 123.0 124.5 125.0 123.5 121.0Uranium US$/lb 56.4 51.8 52.6 53.1 56.0 60.5 65.0 68.5 71.5 74.0 76.0
BULKS
Thermal coal
2
US$/t 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 125.0 125.0 125.0Premium hard coking US$/t 330.0 315.0 285.0 235.0 206.0 215.0 220.0 220.0 225.0 225.0 220.0Hard coking US$/t 300.0 290.0 265.0 225.0 196.0 195.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 195.0Semi-soft coking coal US$/t 275.0 230.0 208.0 171.0 151.0 170.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 170.0Iron ore lump US$/t 206.1 202.0 177.6 168.0 175.2 180.0 183.9 183.9 181.5 176.7 173.2Iron ore fines US$/t 171.8 168.3 148.0 140.0 146.0 150.0 152.0 152.0 150.0 146.0 142.0
OTHER METALS
Alumina US$/t 326 300 262 265 278 280 288 291 288 288 291Molybdenum US$/lb 16.7 14.6 13.4 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.7Cobalt US$/lb 18.3 17.1 15.1 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.0
EXCHANGE RATES
AUD/USD US$ 1.08 1.05 1.04 1.06 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10NZD/USD US$ 0.82 0.83 0.79 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90EUR/USD US$ 1.46 1.41 1.35 1.33 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.34USD/JPY ¥ 81.03 76.78 77.48 80.06 78.96 75.67 73.00 70.67 70.00 70.00 70.00USD/CAD C$ 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10
 Note 1: Average prices Note 2: Thermal coal prices are for JPY year starting April 1 Note 3: Historical data are actualsSources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy, ANZ FX Strategy
 

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->