182 Second Street, Suite 400 • San Francisco, CA 94105 •
(415) 874-7441January 27, 2012
Ben Tulchin and
, Tulchin Research
Newly Drawn 39
Congressional District in California ProvidesOpening for Democrat Jay Chen
With the advent of California’s new re
-districting format and the political shuffling that hasoccurred as a result of new district lines, Tulchin Research was asked to conduct a survey in the
Congressional District to better understand the dynamics of the district. The newlyredrawn district has merged portions of the old 40
Congressional Districts together,including the home of Ed Royce, who currently represents the 40
Congressional District. The new39
Congressional District contains only about
a third of Royce’s o
Congressional District.Furthermore, the demographics of this new district reflect the reality of present-day California asthe district now contains large Latino and Asian populations. With Royce being drawn into thedistrict with large ethnic communities, there is a unique and realistic opportunity for a qualifiedAsian-American Democrat such as Jay Chen to make his case to voters and win them over nextNovember.Here are the numerous factors as to why Jay Chen can make this a very competitive raceand ultimately win this seat.
Polling shows Chen starts off within striking distance of the Republican Congressman and
moves into a statistical tie with Royce
with just a little bit of information about thecandidates provided.
Fully 29 percent of the district is Asian and 33 percent is Latino. Even moreimportantly, the survey shows both groups strongly support Chen, especially oncethey hear more about the candidates. After hearing basic positive information aboutboth candidates, Chen outperforms Royce by 30 points among Asian and Latinovoters.
Republican incumbent Congressmen Ed Royce has been drawn into the district and will becompelled to spend money introducing himself to many voters in the newly drawn district.
Large portions of voters in the new 39
know who Royce is which willweaken any incumbent advantage he might have had as a sitting Congressman.
Anti-incumbency sentiments among voters and their displeasure with their representativesin Washington provide an opening for an accomplished candidate like Chen who has animpressive profile and is not a career politician from Washington. Furthermore, Chen
sname recognition in the district is surprisingly high at 25 percent, which can be attributed tohis work on the school board as well as national exposure he has received in the mediaincluding The Daily Show, the BBC and the Los Angeles Times.
The ethnic diversity of the new district serves as an advantage for Chen, the son of Chineseimmigrants who is fluent in both Chinese and Spanish.