NGNH MA NG VIT NAM V TRIN VNG NM 2011

TM TT Ngnh cng nghip ma ng Vit Nam ch mi c bt u t nhng nm 1990 v c tui i cn non tr so vi khu vc v trn th gii, hin nay ma ng Vit Nam ang i mt vi mt s vn nh: thiu ngun nguyn liu, cng sut nh my thp, t l thu hi ng khng cao, my mc cng ngh lc hu Trn c nc hin nay c khong 40 nh my sn xut ng, tuy nhin mi ch p ng c khong 70% nhu cu, cn li phi nhp khu t nc ngoi, nh vy tim nng t th trng ni a vn cn rt ln. Nm 2010 l mt nm vt bc i vi cc cng ty trong lnh vc ma ng khi kt qu kinh doanh ca cc cng ty nim yt u ln lt hon thnh vt mc k hoch t ra: BHS vi LNST vt 111% k hoch, NHS (61%), LSS (58%), SBT (33%) Gi ng th gii t u nm 2011 n nay din bin phc tp v ang c xu hng gim, tuy nhin gi ng trong nc vn duy tr kh cao mc d ang l ma cao im ca ngun cung trong nc. Cc c phiu ngnh ma ng t u nm n nay ang giao dch mc gi kh tt so vi th trng chung, cc c phiu nh BHS, LSS, SBT c mc gi tng cao hn hn xu hng chung ca VN Index. PE v PB ca ngnh cng mc thp so vi ch s chung ca th trng. LSS KLCP ang lu hnh (triu CP) EPS (VND) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) 40.00 7,437 4.24 1.07 25.5% 19.2% BHS 18.53 7,871 3.63 1.07 29.4% 14.5%
S lng cng ty nim yt Tng vn ha th trng (t ng) Vn ha th trng ngnh ma ng (t ng) % vn ha th trng ngnh ma ng so vi ton th trng P/E bnh qun P/B bnh qun ROE (%) bnh qun ROA (%) bnh qun 6 713,078 2,610

0.37%

3.92 1.21 31.9% 19.5%

SBT 141.25 2,434 5.01 0.97 19.3% 17.7%

NHS 8.1 10,943 3.29 1.24 37.6% 21%

SEC 14.51 4,138 6.69 2.04 30.5% 14.4%

KTS 3.00 11,139 2.00 1.00 49% 30%

Ngun: Stox Plus, PSI

C IM CA CY MA nh ngha Ma l tn gi chung ca mt s loi trong chi ma, bn cnh cc loi lau, lch. Chng l loi c sng lu nm, bn a khu vc nhit i v n i m. Chng c thn to mp, chia t, cha nhiu ng, cao t 2-6 m. Tt c cc dng ma ng c trng ngy nay u l dng lai ghp ni chi phc tp. Chng c trng thu hoch nhm sn xut ng. Trn cy ma, thng thng phn ngn s nht hn phn gc (trong chit nc ma). l c im chung ca thc vt: cht dinh dng ( y l hm lng ng) c tp trung nhiu phn gc (va nui dng cy va d tr). ng thi, do s bc hi ca l ma, nn phn ngn cy lc no cng phi c cung cp nc y cung cp cho l, gy ra hm lng nc trong t l ng/nc phn ngn s nhiu hn phn gc, lm cho ngn cy ma nht hn.

Tnh cht

c im sinh trng Nhit Ma l loi cy nhit i nn i hi iu kin m rt cao. Nhit bnh qun thch hp cho s sinh trng ca cy ma l 15-260C. Ging ma nhit i sinh trng chm khi nhit di 210C v ngng sinh trng khi nhit 130 C v di 50C th cy s cht. Nhng ging ma nhit i tuy chu rt tt hn nhng nhit thch hp cng ging nh ma nhit i. Thi k ny mm ma cn nhit trn 150C tt nht t 26-330C . Ma ny mm km nhit di 150C v trn 400C. T 28-350C l nhit thch hp cho ma vn cao. S dao ng bin nhit gia ngy v m lin quan vi t l ng trong ma. Gii hn nhit thch hp cho thi k ma chn t 15-200 C. V vy t l ng trong ma thng t mc cao nht cho cc vng c kh hu lc a v vng cao. nh sng Ma l cy nhy cm vi nh sng v i hi cao v nh sng. Thiu nh sng, ma pht trin khng tt, hm lng ng thp. Ma cn thi gian ti thiu l 1200 gi tt nht l trn 2000 gi. Quang hp ca cy ma t l thun vi cng v di chiu sng. Thiu nh sng cy ht phn km do phn m, ln, kali ch hiu qu khi nh sng y . V vy vng nhit i v nhit i ma vn cao mnh nht khi bt u vo ma h c di ngy tng ln. Chnh v vy, n l nhn t quan trng quyt nh nng sut v sn lng ma. Ma l cy cn nhiu nc nhng li s ng nc. Ma c th pht trin tt nhng vng c lng ma t 1.500 mm/nm. Giai on sinh trng ma yu cu lng ma t 100170 mm/thng. Khi chn cn kh ro, ma thu hoch sau mt thi gian kh ro khong 2 thng s cho t l ng cao. Bi vy cc nc nm trong vng kh hn nhng vn trng ma tt cn nhng ni ma nhiu v phn b u trong nm th vic trng ma khng hiu qu. Gi bo lm cy dn n lm gim nng sut, gim phm cht ca cy. Chnh v vy gi cng l du hiu quan trng trong cng tc d bo ln k hoch v ch bin lm sao tn t chi ph m gi tr sn xut cng nh phm cht ca ma nguyn liu vn cao. cao cao c lin quan n cng chiu sng cng nh mc chnh lch nhit gia ngy v m, do nh hng n kh nng tch t ng trong ma, iu nh hng n hot ng ca cc khu trong quy trnh ch bin. Gii hn v cao cho cy ma sinh trng v pht trin vng xch o l 1600 mm, vng nhit i l 700-800 mm. 2

t trng

Ma l loi cy cng nghip khe, d tnh, khng kn t, v vy c th trng ma trn nhiu loi t khc nhau, t 70% st n 70% ct. t thch hp cho ma l nhng loi t xp, tng canh tc su, c ph cao, gi m tt v d thot nc. C th trng ma c kt qu trn c nhng ni t st rt nng cng nh trn t than bn, t hon ton ct, t chua mn, t i, kh hn t mu m. Ma l cy trng cng nghip ly ng quan trng ca ngnh cng nghip ng. ng l mt loi thc phm cn c trong c cu ba n hng ngy ca nhiu quc gia trn th gii, cng nh l loi nguyn liu quan trng ca nhiu ngnh sn xut cng nghip nh v hng tiu dng nh bnh ko V mt kinh t, trong thn ma cha khong 80-90% nc dch, trong dch cha khong 16-18% ng. Vo thi k ma chn gi, ngi ta thu hoch ma ri em p ly nc. T nc dch ma c ch lc v c c thnh ng. C hai phng php ch bin bng th cng th c cc dng ng en, mt, ng hoa mai. Nu ch bin qua cc nh my sau khi lc v bng phng php ly tm, s c cc loi ng kt tinh, tinh khit. Ngoi sn phm chnh l ng nhng ph phm chnh ca cy ma bao gm: B ma chim 25-30% trng lng ma em p. B ma c th dng lm nguyn liu t l, hoc lm bt giy, p thnh vn dng trong kin trc, cao hn l lm ra Furfural l nguyn liu cho ngnh si tng hp. Trong tng lai khi m rng ngy cng gim ngun nguyn liu lm bt giy, lm si t cy rng gim i th ma l nguyn liu quan trng thay th. Mt g chim 3-5% trng lng em p. T mt g cho ln men chng ct ru rum, sn xut men cc loi. Mt tn mt g cho mt tn men kh hoc cc loi axit axetic, hoc c th sn xut c 300 lt tinh du v 3800 lt ru. T mt tn ma tt ngi ta c th sn xut ra 35-50 lt cn 96, mt ha vi k thut sn xut hin i ca th k 21 c th sn xut 7000-8000 lt cn lm nhin liu. V vy khi m ngun nhin liu lng ngy cng cn kit th ngi ta ngh n vic thay th nng lng ca th k 21 l ly t ma. Bn lc chim 1,5-3% trng lng ma em p. y l sn phm cn b cn li sau khi ch bin ng. T bn lc c th rt ra sp ma sn xut nha xrin lm sn, xi nh giy Sau khi ly sp bn lc dng lm phn bn rt tt. Theo c tnh gi tr cc sn phm ph phm cao hn 2-3 ln sn phm chnh l ng. Ma cn l loi cy c tc dng bo v t rt tt. Ma thng c trng t thng 10 n thng 2 hng nm l lc lng ma rt thp. n ma ma, ma c 4-5 thng tui, b l giao nhau thnh thm l xanh dy, din tch l gp 4-5 ln din tch t lm cho ma khng th ri trc tip xung mt t, c tc dng trnh xi mn t cho cc vng i trung du. Hn na ma l cy r chum v pht trin mnh trong tng t t 0-60 cm. Mt ha ma tt c th c 13-15 tn r, sau khi thu hoch b r li trong t cng vi b l l cht hu c qu lm tng ph ca t.

Gi tr kinh t

Sn xut

Biu 1: 10 nc sn xut ng ln nht th gii nin v 2010-2011 (v: 1000 tn)

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 10,000 7,000 6,000 5,700 5,400 5,000 2,700 22,000 20,000 30,000

Ngun: illovosugar.com, abareconomic.com, FAO MT S C IM CA NGNH MA NG VIT NAM Gi thnh ng cao L ngnh mi bt u hot ng mnh t nhng nm 1990, c tui i rt non tr so vi khu vc v th gii (n l nc u tin trn th gii bit sn xut ng t ma, cng nghip ng tuy c t lu i, nhng 200 nm gn y mi c c kh ha, nhiu thit b quan trng c pht minh vo th k 19), my mc cng ngh lc hu, cng sut thp, chi ph sn xut v ch bin ng cao nn gi thnh trung bnh ng Vit Nam lun cao hn t vi chc n c 100 USD/tn so vi n , Thi Lan, Trung Quc, Braxin dn n kh khn khi cnh tranh vi ng nhp lu. Din tch trng, sn lng ma bnh qun/nin v/h qu thp (30 40 tn ma/nin v/h), thi gian sinh trng di, li b cnh tranh quyt lit bi cc cy trng khc (cao su, cafe), cn nng dn th khng mn m vi cy ma, nguyn nhn do mt l Nh nc cha c c ch h tr cho nng dn n nh sn xut ma, tuy cc nh my c k kt hp ng hn hoi song thng ch l hp ng 1 nm (trong khi mt chu k trng ma thng thng l 3 nm), trong gi ma thu mua khng c m bo v xc nh l bao nhiu nn nng dn khng mnh dn u t v khng chc chn s thu hi vn v c li; th hai l do c cu phn chia t l li nhun cha hp l trong nng dn b thit nhiu nht, Nh nc ch khuyn co mua mt tn ma vi gi bng 60 kg ng, khng p t v khng kim sot c, gi ng li lun ln xung tht thng, do nng dn cha yn tm sn xut v li ch khng r rng v khng c m bo. V vy dn n vic din tch ma tng chm, thm ch 3 nin v gn y c xu hng gim st nghim trng. Nng sut ma thp, bnh qun t gn 60 tn/ha, ngoi ng bng sng Cu Long t trung bnh 70-80 tn/ha, cn li hu ht cc vng khc ch t 45-50 tn/ha (so vi nng sut ma bnh qun trn th gii hin nay l 70 tn/ha). 4

Din tch trng ma nh l, phn tn v cha c u t tng xng yu cu sn xut cng nghip, nng sut ma thp.

Cnh tranh nguyn liu u Hin nay trn c nc c khong 40 nh my sn xut ng nm ba khu vc ln l min Bc, min Trung Ty Nguyn v ng bng sng vo gay gt Cu Long. Tuy nhin khng phi nh my no cng t xy dng c cho mnh vng nguyn liu n nh, sn lng ma ch p ng c 61,2% tng cng sut , 40 nh my ang hot ng th c 2 nh my khng nguyn liu (NM Tuyn Quang 21%, Sugar Vit Nam 15,5%) v 13 nh my hot ng di 50% cng sut. V vy s cnh tranh gia cc nh my trong cng mt a bn tr nn v cng gay gt. Tnh trng cc nh my khng c vng nguyn liu ca mnh m phi thu mua t cc thng li to nn s cnh tranh khng lnh mnh, ph gi mua gia cc thng li. Hiu sut thu hi ng ca 1 ha ma BSCL ch thu hi c 4-6 tn ng, trong khi cc nc trong khu vc c hiu sut thu hi ng t 10-13 tn/ha. Hiu sut thu cc nh my thp hi ng thp, cht lng ma nguyn liu thp do ging ma c c nng sut thp, tr lng thp t l thoi ha su bnh nhiu, thu ma non ma d, dn n t l ma/ng ca Vit Nam l tng i cao. ng thi, t l ma/ng Vit Nam cho thy ph thuc vo c quy m ca nh my. iu c ngha l i vi cc nh my c quy m cng ln th hot ng c hiu qu hn vi t l ma/ng thp hn. Cc nh my ng c quy m nh, cng sut thp Bnh qun ch t khong 2.500 Tn/ngy/nh my, nguyn nhn chnh l do l cng ngh lc hu, phn ln cc nh my u s dng dy chuyn cng ngh thit b c ca Trung Quc - h qu ca s pht trin t cc nh my ng trong giai on u sau khi c chng trnh 1 triu tn ng (ngoi tr cc nh my lin doanh v c vn u t nc ngoi nh SBT), v hai l do kh khn v ngun nguyn liu.

DIN BIN GI NG TH GII V TRONG NC U NM 2011 Biu 2: Din bin gi ng th th gii Th trng ng th gii t u nm n nay din bin phc tp, v nhng din bin trn th trng trong nc vt: USD cents/lb cng nm ngoi s tnh ton ca cc ngnh chc nng do trc , cc c quan chc nng d bo sn lng ng trn th gii trong nm 2011 s gim do mt ma. Song, sn lng ng trn th gii trong qu 1/2011 vn tng khong 1 triu tn. V vy, sau khi tng gi t k lc 30 nm vo thng 2/2011, gi ng th gii lin tc gim mnh. Trong 5 phin giao dch gn y nht (tnh n ngy 17/4/2011), ng lin tc mt gi t gim gi lu nht trong vng 11 thng, bi sn lng tng t hai nc xut khu ng ln nht th gii l Braxin v Thi Ngun: Index mundi Lan.

ng tinh luyn ca Thi Lan vo thi im gia thng 4 mc gi ch 690 USD/tn, thp hn trn 100 USD so vi tun trc . Tnh c thu nhp khu, cc ph vn chuyn v cc chi ph khc, ng nhp khu v n cng Vit Nam gi ch khong xp x 17.000 VND/kg trong khi gi ng RE (ng ct trng) giao dch qua sn Sacom-STE hin mc 20,000 VND/kg. 5

Gi ng trong nc chu tc ng ln t gi ng th gii do Vit Nam phi nhp khu ng gn 30% sn lng tiu th hng nm. Hin nay, gi ng th gii ang gim nhit dn nhng gi ng trong nc vn duy tr kh cao mc d ang ma cao im ca ngun cung trong nc, thm ch tng nh, gi bn s ng trng tinh luyn ti kho nh my hin dao ng trn di 18,000 VND/kg; ng RE Bin Ha t 20,200 21,200 VND/kg, cao hn khong 4,000 VND so vi ng nhp khu; gi bn l ti ch cng cao hn ng nhp t 6,000 8,000 VND. Nguyn nhn c th l do s bt cn xng gia ngun cung cc nh my v ngun cung ng thc t ra th trng bi lo lng thiu ht ng vo thi im cui qu III v qu IV nm nay, v vy c th trong thi gian ngn hn sp ti, gi ng trong nc s chch hng so vi gi ng th gii. TRIN VNG PHT TRIN NGNH MA NG Ngnh ma ng th gii ang trn Theo d bo trong vng t 2-3 nm ti, gi ng s mc cao v n nh, do tc ng ca dn s th gii hin nay l 6,7 t v hi phc c d bo s tng ln ti trn 7 t ngi vo nm 2012, gi du th tng (gn 100 USD/thng) v chng trnh pht trin ethanol nhin liu (c bit l ca Braxin chim 60% sn lng ng). Khi kinh t th gii bt u hi phc, nhu cu v ethanol trn th gii s tng rt cao do du ngy cng khan him v kh khai thc, ng ngha vi vic gi du ngy cng tng cao nh hin nay cng vi nhng vn v nhim mi trng. Ethalnol km gy nhim hn xng. V vy, chin lc ca M v chu u tp trung vo s tng cng hp tc vi Braxin trong vic nhp ethanol nhm gim bt s ph thuc vo cc nc sn xut du. Vit Nam c cc iu kin t nhin V mt ti nguyn t nhin, nh kh hu, t ai, Vit Nam c nh gi l nc c tim nng trung bnh kh pht trin ma thun li pht trin cy ma cy. a hnh Vit Nam c t ng bng, lng ma kh (1.400 mm n 2.000 mm/nm), nhit ph hp, nng thch hp cho cy ma pht trin. Cc vng nh Ty Nguyn v ng Nam B, c bit l Duyn hi Nam Trung B c kh nng cho cy ma c sn lng ng cao. Nhu cu tiu dng ni a ca Vit Nam Mc tiu th ng bnh qun ca Vit Nam c tc tng ngy cng tng cao (nm 2011 khong trng kh cao. Bnh qun giai on 1999-2009 tiu dng tng khong 5,1%/nm, nm 2010 d kin t 17,5 kg/ngi/nm. 1,4 triu tn) Trong khi sn xut ng trong nc mi ch p ng c khong 70% nhu cu, phn cn li ch yu nhp khu t Trung Quc v Thi Lan, nh vy, tim nng t th trng ni a vn cn rt ln. MT S THCH THC Chu tc ng ln bi quan h cung cu Phn ln trong s 60 quc gia sn xut ng ln trn th gii u c chnh sch hn ngch thu quan. Vi Vit Nam, nhng v gi ng ca th trng th gii bo h ny khng cn nhiu. Ch ring hn ngch v thu nhp khu, theo l trnh hi nhp AFTA, thu sut ng gim dn t 30% nm 2007 xung cn 5% nm 2010. Vi vic gia nhp WTO, Vit Nam s phi m ca nhp khu trong hn ngch l 25% vi ng th, ngoi hn ngch l 65%, khi lng nhp khu trong hn ngch cn tng 5% mi nm. V mi y nht l 6

theo Thng t 29/2011/TT-BTC va c B Ti chnh ban hnh, t 15/04/2011, thu nhp khu u i i vi sn phm ng s gim mnh; mt hng ng th hin ang phi chu mc thu l 25% s c gim xung cn 15%; ng tinh luyn mc thu gim ti 25%, t 40% xung ch cn 15%. Cc nh my ng Vit Nam phn ln Hin ti c khong 40 nh my ng ang hot ng, vi tng va mi c xy dng vi quy m va cng sut 105.750 tn ma/ngy, bnh qun mt nh my 2.500 tn/ngy; phn ln cc nh my c quy m nh, thit b v cng v nh, thi gian khu hao cha lu ngh lc hu, hiu qu v cht lng sn phm thp, gi thnh cao. Ngnh ma ng Vit Nam cng nh cc ngnh sn xut nng sn ni chung chu ri ro rt ln bi cc iu kin thay i kh hu Cng nh cc ngnh sn xut nng sn ni chung, ngnh ma ng chu nh hng rt ln bi cc iu kin bin i kh hu nh thi tit hn hn, bo, l lt, ng, phn, mnNu din bin thi tit khng thun li s c tc ng rt ln n cc vng nguyn liu, gy ra s bin ng v gi v ngun cung nguyn liu trn th trng.

TNG QUAN TNH HNH HOT NG CA CC CNG TY NIM YT Nc ta ang sn xut ba loi ng chnh: ng tinh luyn (RE) hay cn gi l ng ct trng ng vng (RS) ng xay.

c trng ca ngnh ng Vit Nam cng nh trn th gii l sn xut c tnh thi v, thng thng ch khong 5 thng/nm, t thng 11 nm trc n thng 4 nm sau, nn cc nh my hot ng ti a trong thi gian ny. S ng cn li s c lu tr trong kho phc v nhu cu trong c nm. Do vy chi ph tn kho ca ngnh ny rt ln v hiu qu hot ng ca cc nh my khng cao. Hin nay c su cng ty hot ng trong ngnh ma ng ang nim yt trn c hai sn, trong SBT l cng ty c nh my sn xut c quy m ln v hin i nht. y l cng ty tng c s tham gia ca c ng l tp on thc phm ln Bourbon ca nc Php nn khng ch c s h tr v k thut dy chuyn sn xut m cn c c s h tr t kinh nghim iu hnh, hot ng. Cc cng ty nh KTS, NHS v SEC c quy m sn xut tng i nh - ch bng mt phn ba so vi LSS v SBT. Trong nm nay KTS ang c k hoch tng cng sut nh my ln mc 3,500 tn/ngy. Biu 3: Cng sut thit k (tn/ngy)
9000 8000 8000 7000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 SBT LSS BHS 2500 2400 4500

Cng sut thit k ca nh my gia cc cng ty cng c s khc bit, cc cng ty thnh lp sau thng c dy chuyn sn xut hin i v cng sut ln hn. Cc cng ty thnh lp trc my mc thng lc hu v thi gian khu hao my mc gn ht v d nh LSS (80%) hoc KTS (87%), cc cng ty cn li c t l khu hao tng i ng u vi xp x 50-60%.

Gi vn hng bn, c th l chi ph nguyn liu thng chim t trng ln so vi doanh thu khong t 70%-80% nn y l nhn t ln nht nh hng n li nhun ca cc cng ty trong ngnh. Phn ln KTS NHS SEC cc cng ty u bn hng thng qua h thng i l phn phi nn chi ph bn hng khng ng k ch t Ngun: PSI tng hp 1% n 2% so vi doanh thu.
1500

Biu 4: Th phn trong ngnh

10% 10% 7% LSS BHS 73% SBT

Hot ng ca cc cng ty ny ch yu da vo vn u t ca ch s hu nn t trng ca vic s dng n l thp. N di hn ca cc cng ty khng ng k, n ngn hn cng khng nhiu bi nhu cu vn lu ng khng ln nn chi ph li vay khng cao. Cc cng ty ny khng b nhiu nh hng t s bin ng li sut trn th trng. Kh nng thanh ton ca cc cng ty ny u c m bo khi ln hn mt.

Nm 2010, kt qu hot ng kinh doanh ca cc cng ty u hon thnh vt mc k hoch, trong n tng nht phi k n LSS vi li nhun sau thu nm 2010 t 297,5 t ng tng 83% so vi cng k nm 2009 v vt 58% so vi k hoch li nhun 188 t ng, tip theo l cc c phiu SBT vi li nhun sau thu t 345 t ng, vt 33% so vi k hoch 260 t ng, BHS vt 111% k hoch, Ngun: PSI tng hp NHS vt 61% k hoch, SEC vt 9,3% k hoch.
37 cng ty khc

Hu ht cc cng ty kinh doanh ma ng u c kh nng sinh li mc kh cao trong phi k n cc cng ty nh KTS vi ROA v ROE nm 2010 ln lt l 30.4% v 49%, NHS vi ROA v ROE ln lt l 21% v 37.6%, BHS l 14.5% v 29.4%, LSS vi 19.2% v 25.5%. KTS cng l cng ty c mc EPS cao nht vi 11,139 VND, tip n l NHS vi mc EPS t 10,943 VND, theo sau l cc cng ty BHS (7,871 VND), LSS (7,437 VND), SEC (4,138 VND) v cui cng l SBT vi 2,434 VND. Biu 5: ROA ca cc cng ty nim yt
35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 2008 2009 2010 BHS KTS LSS SBT SEC NHS

Biu 6: ROE ca cc cng ty nim yt

60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% 2008 2009 2010 BHS KTS LSS SBT SEC NHS

Ngun: Stox Plus, PSI Hin nay mc P/E ca ngnh l kh thp vi ch 3.92 ln, trong c BHS, NHS, KTS l nhng c phiu c mc P/E thp hn so vi mc P/E hin ti ca c nhm. LSS, SBT v SEC c mc P/E cao hn so vi mc P/E hin ti ca nhm. Trong cc cng ty ma ng ang nim yt, chng ti nh gi cao cc c phiu nh LSS, NHS v hiu qu hot ng cng nh kh nng sinh li, tuy nhin NHS c tnh thanh khon thp, ch thch hp cho cc nh u t gi tr.

CNG TY C PHN NG BIN HA (HOSE: BHS)

THNG TIN CHUNG Ngnh ngh Sn nim yt M CK Vn iu l (t ng) Gi cao nht 52 tun (VND) Gi thp nht 52 tun (VND) KLGDBQ 10 phin CH S TH TRNG Gi hin ti (VND) Vn ha (t ng) P/E P/B EPS 4Q gn nht (VND) TNH HNH TI CHNH Tng TS (t ng) Tng VCSH (t ng) ROA ROE

TNG QUAN V CNG TY

Thc phm HOSE BHS 185.3 36,100 27,200 52,855

28,100 520.7 3.4 1.0 8,335

Cng ty C phn ng Bin Ha chnh thc hot ng theo m hnh c phn t nm 2001. Hot ng chnh ca ng Bin Ha l sn xut v kinh doanh cc sn phm ma ng vi 2 dng sn phm chnh l ng tinh luyn v ng ru. Sn phm ca Cng ty cn c xut khu sang khi ASEAN, Trung Quc v Iraq. Hin nay, ng Bin Ha chim 10% tng th phn ng c nc, ring knh tiu th trc tip (ng ti) th cng ty chim 70% th phn. IM MNH Th phn ln v n nh. H thng phn phi rng khp c nc vi hn 100 n v sn xut v trn 130 nh phn phi, i l C phiu c tnh thanh khon cao. IM YU Thiu ngun nguyn liu Bin li nhun thp so vi cc cng ty trong ngnh.

1,015.2 496.7 14.4% 29.4%

Ngun: BHS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp

200 150

60% 50% 40%

HOT NG KINH DOANH BHS c tnh hnh ti chnh tung i n nh, doanh thu tng trng bnh qun t 47.3%/nm. Nm 2010 BHS t kt qu kinh doanh vt bc vi doanh thu thun t hn 2.000 t ng, tng 68,5% so vi cng k nm 2009, li nhun sau thu t 145,9 t ng, tng 21,5% so vi nm 2009. Vi kt qu ny EPS ca BHS trong nm 2010 t 7.871 VND.

100 50

30% 20% 10%

0 2007A -50 2008A 2009A 2010 UA

0% -10% -20%

-100 LNST (t VN) ROA ROE

-30%

Ngun: BHS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp Tuy doanh thu ca BHS thng xuyn t mc cao so vi cc cng ty trong ngnh nhng bin li nhun gp lun mc gn nh thp nht, nguyn nhn l do mng ng thng mi ca BHS chim khong 25% tng doanh thu v mng ny mang li khong 12% trong c cu li nhun hng nm. V vy m cc ch tiu sinh li ca cng ty nh ROA, ROE ca BHS cng mc trung bnh so vi cc cng ty khc, nm 2010 ROA v ROE ln lt l 14,4% v 29,4%.

CNG TY C PHN NG KON TUM (HNX: KTS)

THNG TIN CHUNG Ngnh ngh Sn nim yt M CK Vn iu l (t ng) Gi cao nht 52 tun (VND) Gi thp nht 52 tun (VND) KLGDBQ 10 phin CH S TH TRNG Gi hin ti (VND) Vn ha (t ng) P/E P/B EPS 4Q gn nht (VND) TNH HNH TI CHNH Tng TS (t ng) Tng VCSH (t ng) ROA ROE

TNG QUAN V CNG TY

Thc phm HNX KTS 30 44,500 18,800 10,290

18,800 56.4 1.7 0.8 11,139

Cng ty C phn ng Kon Tum c thnh lp vo nm 1995 v chnh thc c phn ha vo nm 2008 vi vn iu l 30 t. Lnh vc kinh doanh v t doanh thu cao nht ca Cng ty l sn xut ng. Sn phm ng RS chim t trng khong 92% tng doanh thu ca Cng ty. Hin nay din tch ma nguyn liu ca Cng ty ang duy tr mc l 1.911,06 ha. Cng ty ang thc hin m rng vng nguyn liu, d kin v 2010-2011 Cng ty u t v khai thc c 200-300 ha, v 2011-2012 s u t v khai thc c 500-700 ha. D kin sn lng ma ca Cng ty trong 3 v ti: V 2010-2011 t 115.000 tn; v 2011-2012 t 144.000 tn, v 2012-2013 t 168.000 tn. IM MNH Sn phm ng RS ca Cng ty c tiu th rng ri trn th trng cc tnh min Trung, Ty Nguyn, tp HCM v min ng Nam B My mc, thit b, cng ngh ca Cng ty nhp t Trung Quc vi cng sut thit k 1.000 tn cy ma/ngy, t l thu hi 11-12 ma/ng, cng ty c t l thu hi cao so vi cc nh my v cng ty trong khu vc. IM YU Quy m nh, tnh thanh khon thp. Thiu nguyn liu. HOT NG KINH DOANH

109.9 68.2 30.4% 49.0%

Ngun: KTS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp

40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 2009A LNST (t VN) ROA 2010 A ROE

90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

KTS l tn tui mi nht trong ngnh ma ng gia nhp th trng, c phiu ca cng ty mi ch nim yt vo cui Ngun: KTS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp nm 2010. KTS cng l cng ty c quy m v tng ti sn v vn ch s hu thp nht trong s cc doanh nghip ngnh ma ng ang nim yt vi tng ti sn v vn ch s hu ln lt l 109,9 t v 68,2 t. Nm 2010 hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty cng t kt qu kh quan vi doanh thu v li nhun sau thu ln lt t 154,4 t ng v 33,4 t ng tng tng ng l 42,3% v 173,8% so vi cng k nm 2009. EPS ng th hai trong ton ngnh vi 11.139 VND.

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CNG TY C PHN MA NG LAM SN (HOSE: LSS)

THNG TIN CHUNG Ngnh ngh Sn nim yt M CK Vn iu l (t ng) Gi cao nht 52 tun (VND) Gi thp nht 52 tun (VND) KLGDBQ 10 phin CH S TH TRNG Gi hin ti (VND) Vn ha (t ng) P/E P/B EPS 4Q gn nht (VND) TNH HNH TI CHNH Tng TS (t ng) Tng VCSH (t ng) ROA ROE

TNG QUAN V CNG TY

Thc phm HOSE LSS 400 41,600 29,000 138,038

30,000 900 3.1 1.0 9,724

1,549.9 1,174.9 19.5% 25.7%

Cng ty c phn ma ng Lam Sn tin thn l Nh my ng Lam Sn thnh lp nm 1980, hot ng theo m hnh c phn t nm 1999. Hot ng sn xut kinh doanh chnh ca Lasuco l sn xut ng v cn. Sn phm chnh ca Cng ty l cc loi ng v cn tinh ch, trong doanh thu t ng chim khong 77% doanh thu hng sn xut v doanh thu t cn chim 16% doanh thu hng sn xut. Lasuco l cng ty sn xut ng ln nht ti Vit Nam, chim 10% th phn. Lasuco hin c hai dy chuyn sn xut ng vi tng cng sut thit k ng th 2 trong c nc nhng li l cng ty c sn lng ng ln nht (khong 85.000 tn trong v p 2010/2011). LSS hin l cng ty dn u v sn lng v th phn. IM MNH

350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 -

Th mnh ch yu ca LSS l ch ng c ngun nguyn Ngun: LSS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp liu, tn dng c cng sut sn xut ca dy chuyn, 50.0% trong khi nhiu cng ty khc hin ang chy di cng sut 45.0% do khng nguyn liu. 40.0%
35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2007A 2008A LNST (t VN) 2009A ROA 2010 A ROE

T l thu hi ng cao hn mc trung bnh ngnh. Chi ph khu hao hng nm thp, gip gim gi thnh v gi bn cnh tranh. HOT NG KINH DOANH

Kt thc nm 2010, LSS t doanh thu 1.338,2 t ng, Ngun: LSS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp ng gp ch yu l cc sn phm ma ng, cc sn phm khc nh cn ru ch ng gp khong 7% doanh thu. Doanh thu nm 2010 tng trng 23% so vi nm 2009 ch yu da trn c hai yu t l sn lng v gi bn, tuy nhin yu t tng gi gi vai tr ch o. Sn lng ng tinh luyn LSS nm 2010 khong 83 nghn tn, tng 3% so vi 80,2 nghn tn nm 2009. Trong khi , gi bn trung bnh nm 2010 tng gn 21% so vi nm 2009. LNST t 301.5 t ng, tng gn 85% so vi nm ngoi, vt 58% k hoch. Cc ch tiu phn nh kh nng sinh li nh cng tng cao n tng. T sut li nhun gp t 36%, tng gp 1,8 ln so vi mc trung bnh t 18-20% cc nm trc. Ngoi ra, vi vic ti sn cng ty gn ht khu hao v s dng c cu vn cn i nn ROA v ROE ca LSS cng mc kh cao so vi ton ngnh, ln lt t 19,5% v 25,7% trong nm 2010.

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CNG TY C PHN BOURBON TY NINH (HOSE: SBT)

THNG TIN CHUNG Ngnh ngh Sn nim yt M CK Vn iu l (t ng) Gi cao nht 52 tun (VND) Gi thp nht 52 tun (VND) KLGDBQ 10 phin CH S TH TRNG Gi hin ti (VND) Vn ha (t ng) P/E P/B EPS 4Q gn nht (VND) TNH HNH TI CHNH Tng TS (t ng) Tng VCSH (t ng) ROA ROE

TNG QUAN V CNG TY

Thc phm HOSE SBT 1,419 16,400 10,200 272,404

11,600 520 4.7 0.9 2,444

Cng ty c phn Ma ng Bourbon Ty Ninh tin thn l doanh nghip c vn u t nc ngoi c UBND tnh Ty Ninh cp php chuyn i hnh thc doanh nghip thnh CTCP. Hot ng chnh l trng ma, sn xut ng v cc sn phm ph. Nng sut hot ng ca Cng ty duy tr mc 100.000-200.000 tn/nm. Hin nay Cng ty ang tin hnh trin khai xy dng khu cng nghip v trung tm thng mi, tuy nhin hot ng ny cha em li li nhun. Doanh thu v li nhun t sn xut v kinh doanh ng chim hn 90% doanh thu li nhun ca Cng ty. c tnh, hin th phn ca Cng ty trn c nc l 7% v chim 19% ti th trng min Nam. IM MNH Sn phm ca Cng ty c thng hiu cao, bin li nhun cao nht trong ngnh, trong nm 2009 t sut li nhun l 26% v trong nm 2010 l 35%. H thng my mc hin i c cng sut ti a 2,4 triu tn ma/nm. C phiu c tnh thanh khon tt. IM YU Chnh v cng sut qu ln nn Cng ty thng b thiu nguyn liu sn xut. Vn ln nhng cng ty hot ng cha thc s hiu qu do cc nh my lun phi hot ng di cng sut v lun trong tnh trang thiu ngun nguyn liu. HOT NG KINH DOANH

1,956.9 1,789.6 17.6% 19.3%

Ngun: SBT, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp

400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 2007A 2008A LNST (t VN) 2009A ROA 2010A ROE 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

Ngun: SBT, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp Nm 2010 nh du s thay i ln ca SBT sau hn 15 nm hnh thnh v pht trin. l s chuyn giao ca tp on Bourbon sang nhng nh u t trong nc. So vi cc doanh nghip trong ngnh, SBT l doanh nghip c t sut li nhun gp cao nht vi bnh qun giai on t nm 2007 n nm 2009 t 24,5%, nm 2010 t sut li nhun gp ca cng ty t 34,8% tng 1,4 ln so vi cc nm trc. Nm 2010, doanh thu ca SBT t hn 1.000 t ng, tng 43,3% so vi nm 2009, li nhun sau thu t 345,2 t ng tng 64% so vi 210 t ng t c nm 2009. Tuy nhin cng ty cha pht huy ht u th v vn v ti sn ca mnh khi m cc ch tiu sinh li vn cn mc kh khim tn, EPS nm 2010 ch t 2.444 VND, thp nht trong ngnh.

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CNG TY C PHN MA NG NHIT IN GIA LAI (HOSE: SEC)

THNG TIN CHUNG Ngnh ngh Sn nim yt M CK Vn iu l (t ng) Gi cao nht 52 tun (VND) Gi thp nht 52 tun (VND) KLGDBQ 10 phin CH S TH TRNG Gi hin ti (VND) Vn ha (t ng) P/E P/B EPS 4Q gn nht (VND) TNH HNH TI CHNH Tng TS (t ng) Tng VCSH (t ng) ROA ROE

TNG QUAN V CNG TY

Thc phm HOSE SEC 145 39,200 22,800 120,141

26,000 377 6.1 1.8 4,246

Cng ty c phn Ma ng Nhit in Gia Lai c thnh lp nm 1997, tin thn l Cng ty TNHH Ma ng Bourbon Gia Lai. Nm 2007 Cng ty chuyn i sang hot ng theo m hnh cng ty c phn. Vn iu l hin ti ca Cng ty l 126.134.720.000 ng, nh nc nm gi 52,27% c phn. Sn phm chnh ca Cng ty bao gm ng RS (ng kt tinh) v cc sn phm thu hi t ng nh in nng (pht li ha in ng thi vi sn xut ng), mt r v phn vi sinh. Sn phm ng RS chim khong 87% doanh thu v phn bn chim 10% doanh thu ca Cng ty trong nm 2008. Hin nay, Cng ty ang tin hnh nng cng sut nh my t 1.500 tn/ngy ln 2.500 tn/ngy v pht trin vng nguyn liu. IM MNH

70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0

Cng ty c li th ln nht so vi cc nh my sn xut ng khc l c v tr gn vng nguyn liu tp trung, c Ngun: SEC, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp ly vn chuyn t vng nguyn liu n nh my thp bnh qun ch 22 km. 60.0%
50.0% 40.0% 30.0%

417.9 196.6 14.4% 30.5%

IM YU Quy m sn xut ca nh my cn nh, cng sut ch t 1.500 tn/ngy, thp nht trong ngnh. HOT NG KINH DOANH

30.0 20.0 10.0 2007A 2008A 2009A ROA 2010 UA 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

Doanh thu ca SEC tng trng u qua cc nm, c bit nm 2010 doanh thu ca cng ty t 296,2 t ng, tng Ngun: SEC, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp 53% so vi 193,7 t ng t c trong nm 2009, tuy nhin vn mc thp so vi cc cng ty khc trong ngnh. Li nhun sau thu nm 2010 cng c tc tng trng tng ng vi doanh thu, t 60 t ng so vi 39,4 t ng nm 2009, tng trng 53%. Do tc tng trng doanh thu v li nhun hng nm cao nn t l sinh li trn tng ti sn v vn ch mc kh cao so vi cc cng ty cn li, nm 2010 ROA v ROE ca cng ty ln lt l 14,4% v 30,5%.
LNST (t VN) ROE

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CNG TY C PHN NG NINH HA (HOSE: NHS)

THNG TIN CHUNG Ngnh ngh Sn nim yt M CK Vn iu l (t ng) Gi cao nht 52 tun (VND) Gi thp nht 52 tun (VND) KLGDBQ 10 phin

TNG QUAN V CNG TY

Thc phm HOSE NHS 81 41,700 30,700 109,516

Cng ty C phn ng Ninh Ha tin thn l Nh my ng Ninh Ha c thnh lp nm 1994. Nm 2006 Cng ty tin hnh c phn ha v chuyn sang hot ng theo m hnh cng ty c phn. Hot ng sn xut ca Cng ty tp trung vo 3 mng chnh l sn xut ng RS bn s v l, sn xut v kinh doanh phn bn NPK v sn xut CH S TH TRNG in thng phm. Sn phm ch yu ca Cng ty l ng Gi hin ti (VND) 34,000 knh trng RS, chim t trng khong 85% tng doanh thu Vn ha (t ng) 275 P/E 2.9 ca Cng ty, ng gp khong 95-98% li nhun gp. Th P/B 1.2 trng tiu th chnh ti Tp. HCM v cc tnh min Ty. EPS 4Q gn nht (VND) 11,534 Cc sn phm khc nh mt r, phn bn NPK v in thng phm l nhng sn phm thu hi t ng. Nh TNH HNH TI CHNH Tng TS (t ng) 422.3 my sn xut phn bn NPK c cng sut 50.000 tn/nm Tng VCSH (t ng) 235.6 dng cung ng phn bn cho vng nguyn liu ma ca ROA 21.0% cc nh my ng khc trong khu vc. in thng phm ROE 37.6% ca Cng ty c ha vo li in quc gia vi sn lng Ngun: NHS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp hng nm t 8 triu KW.
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008A 2009A LNST (t VN) ROA 2010A ROE 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

IM MNH Vng nguyn liu tt, hot ng ht cng sut trong ma, bin li nhun cao. Hot ng rt hiu qu, kh nng sinh li tt vi EPS nm 2010 t 11.534 VND. IM YU

Ngun: NHS, StoxPlus, PSI tng hp Quy m cng ty nh, tim nng tng trng thp. C phiu c tnh thanh khon thp. HOT NG KINH DOANH NHS tuy l cng ty c quy m nh nhng hot ng rt hiu qu. Doanh thu nm 2010 tng trng 54,5% so vi nm 2009 t 437,2 t ng, li nhun sau thu t 88,6 t ng, tng 38% so vi cng k nm 2009. Bin li nhun gp ca Cng ty duy tr cao v n nh qua cc nm vi bnh qun t 25,8%/nm. Do quy m vn v tng ti sn nh nhng hot ng hiu qu nn cc ch tiu sinh li ca cng ty nh ROA v ROE u rt cao, t mc cao nht trong ton ngnh vi 21% v 37,6% nm 2010, EPS nm 2010 t 11.534 VND, tng 21,7% so vi nm 2009.

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KHUYN CO S DNG Bo co ny c thc hin bi Ban Phn tch - Cng ty c phn Chng khon Du kh. Nhng thng tin trong bo co ny c thu thp t cc ngun ng tin cy v nh gi mt cch thn trng. Tuy nhin, Cng ty c phn Chng khon Du kh khng chu bt k trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc, trung thc, y ca cc thng tin c cung cp cng nh nhng tn tht c th xy ra khi s dng bo co ny. Mi thng tin, quan im trong bo co ny c th c thay i m khng cn bo trc. Bo co ny c xut bn vi mc ch cung cp thng tin v hon ton khng hm khuyn co ngi c mua, bn hay nm gi chng khon. Ngi c cn lu : Cng ty c phn Chng khon Du kh c th c nhng hot ng hp tc vi cc i tng c nu trong bo co v c th c xung t li ch vi cc nh u t. Bo co ny thuc bn quyn ca Cng ty c phn Chng khon Du kh. Mi hnh vi in n, sao chp, sa i ni dung m khng c s cho php ca Cng ty c phn Chng khon Du kh u c coi l s vi phm php lut.

CNG TY C PHN CHNG KHON DU KH

BAN PHN TCH Gim c Ban Phm Thi Bnh - binhpt@psi.vn Chuyn vin Phn tch: H Th Thanh Hon hoanhtt@psi.vn

Nghin cu th trng v KT v m Ng Hng c ducnh@psi.vn o Hng Dng Nguyn Anh Tun duongdh@psi.vn tuanna1@psi.vn Nguyn Minh Hnh hanhnm@psi.vn

Phn tch ngnh, cng ty on Th Vn Anh Anhdtv1@psi.vn H Th Thanh Hon hoanhtt@psi.vn

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