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Table Of Contents

TIMEFRAME KEY
COST-BENEFIT GOOD
OPPORTUNITY COST GOOD
SUB-EXTINCTION EVENTS GOOD
EXTINCTION O/W PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY KEY
PROBABILITY KEY/A2: SCHELL
BODY COUNTS BAD
WAR OUTWEIGHS EVERYTHING
ENVIRONMENT OUTWEIGHS POVERTY/RACISM
A2: SYSTEMIC IMPACTS
A2: SYSTEMIC OUTWEIGHS NUKE WAR
A2: EXTINCTION OUTWEIGHS
A2: YOUR IMPACT IS LOW-PROBABILITY
A2: RESCHER (LOW PROB = ZERO)
A2: NO HISTORICAL PRECEDENT
A2: YOUR IMPACT IS VAGUE
A2: HIGH MAGNITUDE/LOW RISK BAD
A2: LOW PROBABILITY BAD
A2: INTERVENING ACTORS WILL CHECK
A2: CRISIS POLITICS BAD
A2: BODY COUNTS BAD
A2: FOCUS ON SMALL RISK TRADES OFF
A2: LONG TIMEFRAME BAD
A2: INTERVENING ACTORS
A2: RE-EVOLUTION (ECONOMIST)
A2: GENOCIDE OUTWEIGHS EXTINCTION
A2: VALUE TO LIFE
A2: EXISTENTIAL LOGIC = PARALYSIS
NO PREDICTIONS FRONTLINE
YES PREDICTIONS FRONTLINE
SPACE PREDICTIONS GOOD
UNDERESTIMATE—RELIGION
UNDERESTIMATE—AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC
UNDERESTIMATE—HINDSIGHT BIAS
UNDERESTIMATE—TECH OPTIMISM
UNDERESTIMATE—MAGNITUDE
UNDERESTIMATE—DATA
TETLOCK WRONG
PREDICTIONS ACCURATE
MULTIPLE AUTHORS CHECK
PREDICTIONS SOLVE EXTINCTION
INACCURATE PREDICTIONS STILL GOOD
NOT PREDICTING WORSE
PREDICTIONS ETHICAL
DEBATE SOLVES
A2: EXPERTS INFLATE RISK
A2: PREDICTIONS HISTORICALLY FAIL
A2: NO HISTORICAL EVIDENCE
A2: HISTORY DOES NOT REPEAT
A2: EXPERTS BAD
TURNS SOCIAL EQUALITY
TURNS NEOLIBERALISM
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Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis

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Published by Ben Wolch

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Published by: Ben Wolch on Apr 06, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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04/06/2012

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