ex: coin toss

we toss a coin three times, defining the outcome head as a success what are the possible outcomes? how do we calculate their probabilities?

coin toss (cont.)

how do we assign values to P(n,k,p)?
3 trials; n = 3 even odds of success; p=.5 P(3,k,.5) there are 4 possible values for k, and we want to calculate P for each of them
0

k
TTT

1
2 3

HTT (THT,TTH)
HHT (HTH, THH) HHH

probability of k successes in n trials where the probability of success on any one trial is p

P3,0,.5

P3,1,.5

Pn, k , p

n! k !( n k )!

3! 0!(30)!

3! 1!(31)!

.5 1 .5
1
P(3,k,.5)

.5 1 .5
0

p 1 p
k 31

n k

30

0.400 0.350 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 0 1 k 2 3