Agriculture and Food Security in Asia:Future Scenarios
Mark W. Rosegrant
Session 4: An Eye to Future
Asia has made significant progress in increasing its agricultural productivity andreducing poverty since the 1960s. Yet real world food prices of most cereals andmeats are now projected to rise, reversing a long-established downward trend withadverse impacts on poor consumers in Asia and elsewhere. Growing resourcescarcity, particularly of water and land, will increasingly constrain food productiongrowth, and climatic stresses will likely shrink Asian farmers’ abilities to producegrains. Meanwhile, growing demand for high-value foods, such as livestock,fish, vegetables, and fruits will put further pressure on the natural resource base.Moreover, bioenergy demands will compete with the land and water resources thatare used for food. The consequences of these pressures will adversely affect foodsecurity and goals for human well-being, slowing progress in efforts to reducechildhood malnutrition. Drawing on projections of the International Model forPolicy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), we find thatpolicy reforms and increased investments in agricultural research and developmentare required to boost crop yields and growth in livestock numbers.
Modeling Global Futures
IMPACT was developed in the early 1990s by researchers at IFPRI in responseto the prevailing lack of long-term vision and consensus about the actions thatare necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect thenatural resource base. IMPACT is a partial equilibrium agricultural sector modelrepresenting a competitive agricultural market for crops and livestock. Demand isa function of prices, income, and population growth. Growth in crop production ineach country is determined by crop and input prices and the rate of productivitygrowth. World agricultural commodity prices are determined annually at levels thatbalance food supply and demand. IMPACT generates projections for crop area,yield, production, demand for food, feed and other uses, prices, and trade; and forlivestock numbers, yield, production, demand, prices, and trade (for more details,see Rosegrant et al. 2008).
Paper presented at the Asian Irrigation Forum organized by the Asian Development Bank, Mandaluyong, Philippines,April 11–13, 2012
Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).Washington, DC, USA. email@example.com