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Percolating Clusters

Percolating Clusters

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Percolating Clusters
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06/10/2013

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EDU 5170Educational Technology IStatistics & Probabilities: Percolating ClustersEric BranApril 8,2012
ISTE/ NETS STANDARDS
Creativity and Innovation
: Students demonstrate creative thinking,construct knowledge, and develop innovative products and processesusing technology.1C. Use models and simulations to explore complex systems and issues.
Research and Information Fluenc
: Students apply digital tools togather, evaluate, and use information.3D. Process data and report results.
COMMON CORE MATHEMATICS STANDARDS
Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statisticalexperiments
S-IC.1. Understand statistics as a process for making inferences aboutpopulation parameters based on a random sample from that populationS-IC.2. Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a givendata-generating process, e.g., using simulation.
For example, a modelsays a spinning coin falls heads up with probability 0.5. Would a result of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model?
S-IC.3. Recognize the purposes of and differences among samplesurveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain howrandomization relates to each.S-IC.4. Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean orproportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulationmodels for random sampling.S-IC.5. Use data from a randomized experiment to compare twotreatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parametersare significant.S-IC.6. Evaluate reports based on data.
LESSON OBJECTIVES

1.
The student will be able to construct a model based on probability.2.The student will compile and analyze data from their experiment
3.
The student will be able to articulate data in terms of percentages.4.The student will be able to predict the result of an experimentusing their model and some intuition.
INTRODUCTION
We will start class by first talking about forests and how they arecreated. Imagine you have a bunch of seeds and you spread themaround in an empty field. The seeds will be scattered randomly all overthe ground. Some trees will stand alone and others will stand in clusters.We will then define the term ‘percolating clusters’ by asking the class if anyone knows the definition of the term.
Motivator
Students will get to work on the computer, print out their forest. Theywill be able to work with probability and statistics while creatingsomething they can display in the classroom or keep. This is a hands-onactivity that gives the students the feeling that they are interacting andcreating data as oppose to just solving problems. This gets the studentsengaged in the topic and the activity.
PROVIDE INFORMATION
Percolating Theory
In mathematics, percolation theory describes the behavior of connectedclusters in a random graph. This idea can be explained by a simpledrawing on the board, where there is a cluster that unites on side of anobject to another due to random set of events. The teacher will ask theclass for a volunteer to explain what the term means in their own wordsafter the explanation to check for understanding. We will then look atdifferent examples of percolating clusters.
Finding Percentages
We will discuss as a class how to find percentages using the ratios andcross multiplication. We will use a sample displayed on the SmartBoardand use the data in the sample to find the percentages.
Probability Partners
Since we’ll be talking about probabilities and will be working withpartners we will use some math to partner up. The teacher will ask theclass that on the count of 3 they are to raise either their left hand ortheir right hand and keep them up. They will then be asked to find apartner who is raising the same hand as them. So those who raise theirright hand will find someone with their right hand up. These will begroups of two. Quickly the teacher will make some notes of the

observation and ask the class what the probability that someone wouldraise their right hand? Is it reflected on the experiment?
Probability of a coin toss
Students will be given a coin which will be used to create a model of theforest. Before starting with the activity we will talk briefly aboutprobabilities as a refresher.What is the probability that the coin will land in heads? Tails? (Answer:½)
Probability of a dice roll
After the group work we will talk about what the probability of rolling adice and getting a certain number would be. This will be done and left soit can be left as a homework assignment for individual work. (Answer:1/6)
PROVIDE PRACTICE
The students will be able to construct a model based on probability.
After the students have found their partners, the students will beinstructed to the teacher’s website to download an excel file which is thefile containing the ‘my forest’ activity. Once they have the file theinstructions will be given as follow. You will be creating your own forest based on the probability of a cointoss. You will start creating your forest from the top left corner. Flippingthe coin will determine whether a seed grows into a tree or not. If thecoin lands tails you will write the word tree on the cell, if it lands headsyou are to leave the cell alone and more to the next one. Do this, untilyou have gotten to the bottom right corner of your forest.After they have finished their grid, the students will be instructed toprint their forest out. Each group will receive a red marker which willsymbolize a forest fire. Starting with the first tree in the top left corner,the students will draw a circle around the tree. If there is a tree to theimmediate sides up, down, left, and right, the circle will be transmittedto this tree. This will symbolize the fire spreading through clusters.
The student will compile and analyze data.
In a group the students will then collect the data from their experiment. They will be asked to answer the following questions.How many trees did you generate?Is this an accurate picture of the probability of a coin toss? Why or whynot?