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Contre-insurrection et "nouvelles" doctrines militaires : l’adieu aux illusions !

Contre-insurrection et "nouvelles" doctrines militaires : l’adieu aux illusions !

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Jean-Jacques Patry, Nicole Vilboux, Note n°2/2012, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, janvier 2012
Jean-Jacques Patry, Nicole Vilboux, Note n°2/2012, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, janvier 2012

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05/13/2014

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Bd`xaë fe nkrrkli ï m` Glif`vkli pluxm` Xebdexbde Rvx`vëakue
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Blivxe.kiruxxebvkli ev £ iluwemmer ³flbvxkier nkmkv`kxer :m‛`fkeu `ut kmmurklir !
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Blivxe.kiruxxebvkli ev blivxe.vexxlxkrne ie rlivp`r ëvx`iaexr `ut `pp`xekmr nkmkv`kxer bm`rrkuer)Rk m‛li weuv hkei lhrexwex me _xlbde ev me Nl{ei.Lxkeiv- me b`r f‛Krx`ãm- bligxlivë fepukr 0;71 `utglxner ili bm`rrkuer f‛eia`aeneivr p`mervk.ikeir erv b`x`bvëxkrvkue) B‛erv `urrk me b`r ferxëakner `x`her n`xlb`ki $R`d`x` lbbkfeiv`m+ lu`maëxkei $auexxe bkwkme+- fe m` R{xke $n`rr`bxe feD`n` 0;48+- fe m‛@x`hke r`lufkve ev fu [ëneif`ir mer `iiëer rlkt`ive ev `ujluxf‛duk) _mur mlkieiblxe- mer glxber `xnëer fe m` pmur ax`ife fë.nlbx`vke fu nlife- m‛Kife- rliv lpplrëer fepukrfer fëbeiiker `ut kiruxxebvklir fu B`bdenkxe evfer pxlwkiber fu Ilxf)Km erv wx`k ue- fu plkiv fe wue euxlpëei ev `në.xkb`ki- m` blivxe.kiruxxebvkli ëv`kv luhmkëe fepukrm` fëblmlikr`vkli ev m` gki fe m` auexxe fu Wkev.i`n- ï m‛etbepvkli fu Xl{`une.Uik ei Umrvex)Pu`iv ï m` muvve blivxe me vexxlxkrne- mer glxber`xnëer bm`rrkuer { liv p`xvkbkpë fe mliaue f`veï m‛lbb`rkli fer xëukrkvklir f`ir me b`fxe fe m`pxlvebvkli fu vexxkvlkxe lu ei eia`aeneiv fkxebvp`x meux blnplr`ive glxber rpëbk`mer) _lux merp`{r fkrplr`iv f‛uie Aeif`xnexke lu f‛ui blxprrknkm`kxe- b‛erv nêne uie nkrrkli pxkre eiblnpve `u vkvxe fe m` rëbuxkvë puhmkue p`x feruikvër f‛ëmkve0) @ m‛kiwexre- mer blnplr`iver pmurbm`rrkuer ue rliv mer `xnëer fe Vexxe- fe m‛@kxlu fe m` N`xkie liv xefëbluwexv uie fk`mebvkuefer bligxliv`vklir `r{nëvxkuer fepukr uie fë.beiike) Mer etpëxkeiber `gad`ie ev kx`ckeiie liv`bbëmëxë me nluweneiv ev g`kv pxeifxe blirbkei.
 
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be- ruxvluv `ut Ev`vr.Uikr- fer m`buier lpëx`.vkliiemmer p`veiver) Emmer liv `urrk glb`mkrë m` xë.gmetkli rux m` blivxe.kiruxxebvkli- uk plre merpxlhmäner mer pmur knplxv`ivr f‛`f`pv`vkli)Mer blifkvklir f`ir meruemmer mer @nëxkb`kirxefëbluwxeiv fer v`bvkuer fe blivxe.kiruxxebvkli p`x m‛etpëxkeibe fe uemuer bln.n`if`ivr fe vexx`ki ei Kx`c- wliv gktex mer rv`i.f`xfr fe xëgmetkli plux meuxr @mmkër) Ei eggev- merpxkibkper fëbxkvr f`ir mer iluwe`ut flbuneivr‒ fliv me n`iuem GN 2.86
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erv dëxkvë fer eirekaieneivr fe m`pëxklfe fe fëblmlikr`vkli) @ bev ëa`xf- km pxërei.ve vlujluxr m` rvx`vëake blivxe.kiruxxebvkliiemmeblnne beivxëe rux m` plpum`vkli mlb`me ev nkreei Œuwxe p`x ui Ev`v.döve b`p`hme fe glibvkli.iex) Lx- f`ir mer kiruxxebvklir blivenplx`kierm‛Ev`v i‛etkrve pmur lu ie fkrplre f‛`ubuie `uvl.xkvë rux m‛eirenhme fu vexxkvlkxe fkrpuvë) Mer nk.mkv`kxer re vxluweiv flib ei bd`xae fe m` vlv`mkvëfu pxlhmäne- p`x fëg`uv) Kmr flkweiv `f`pvexmeuxr v`bvkuer- veivex f‛`vvekifxe uie uikvë feblnn`ifeneiv ev f‛egglxv- `mlxr u‛kmr näieivb`np`aie `u reki f‛`mmk`iber fe aluwexieneivri`vkli`ut fkggëxenneiv knpmkuër ev ie fkrpl.r`iv p`r fkxebveneiv fer xerrluxber bkwkmer kifkr.peir`hmer)
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8
)Mer pxenkexr rubbär v`bvkuer f`ir m` pxlwkiberuiikve f‛@m.@ih`x ev ï V`m @g`x pxluweiv uem‛`flpvkli fe iluwe`ut nlfer f‛`bvkli peuvp`{ex) Kmr xëwämeiv f‛`hlxf m‛kieggkb`bkvë fer lpë.x`vklir pxëbëfeiver fe v{pe
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- li blirv`ve ue mer lggkbkexr uk eirliv ï m‛lxkakie fkrplr`keiv f‛uie bumvuxe nkmkv`k.xe fkggëxeibkëe p`x x`pplxv ï meuxr blmmäauer) Eibe uk blibexie _evx`eur ev NbN`rvex- vlur feutliv neië fer vx`w`ut uikwexrkv`kxer rux mer xem`.vklir eivxe pluwlkxr bkwkmr ev nkmkv`kxer mlxr fe m`auexxe fu Wkevi`n) Kmr liv flib- ï ui nlneivbxkvkue- pxkr me xebum iëberr`kxe plux `i`m{rex merblifkvklir bligmkbvuemmer f`ir meruemmer kmr kivex. wei`keiv) Kmr liv- `web fer nl{eir fe glxvuie-glxnë meuxr ruhlxfliiër ï fer nlfer f‛`bvklirvkxër fe m‛etpëxkeibe fer kiruxxebvklir p`rrëer)F`ir me b`r fe NbN`rvex- `ut fkxer fe rer bln.n`if`ivr f‛erb`fxlir- me blmliem `w`kv `bdevërux rer feikexr pexrliiemr uie hkhmklvdäuef‛luwx`aer fe xëgëxeiber rux mer kiruxxebvklirp`rrëer ev ei knplr`kv m` mebvuxe ï rer lggkbkexr) @ p`xvkx fe 8??5- li `rrkrve `u fëwemlppeneivf‛uie £ blnnui`uvë ³ bkwkml.nkmkv`kxe glb`mkrëerux m` blivxe.kiruxxebvkli- ëbd`iae`iv rer etpë.xkeiber ev rer `i`m{rer f`ir mer hmlar ev mer xe. wuer pxlgerrkliiemmer) M‛etpmlkv`vkli fer meálirfu p`rrë erv `mlxr `u bŒux fer fëh`vr n`kr m`xefëbluwexve fer `uveuxr bm`rrkuer re blibeivxex`pkfeneiv rux mer vx`w`ut f‛ui lggkbkex gx`iá`krvlv`meneiv kibliiu ${ blnpxkr ei Gx`ibe+ F`wkfA`mum`
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) Me mkeuvei`iv.blmliem A`mum`- fëbëfë ei0;71- `w`kv p`xvkbkpë `ut lpëx`vklir ei @maëxke-blnne blnn`if`iv f‛uikvë ëmëneiv`kxe) Km`w`kv lhrexwë mer px`vkuer fe m` £ auexxe plpu.m`kxe ³ lu £ xëwlmuvklii`kxe ³ ei Kiflbdkie ev`w`kv kiilwë p`x fer v`bvkuer glb`mkrëer rux m`plpum`vkli) @u vluv fëhuv fer `iiëer 0;7?- km`w`kv eu m` plrrkhkmkvë- `ut Ev`vr.Uikr- fe xëfkaexfeut luwx`aer- fliv m‛ui bliiu ui bexv`ki rubbärei 0;76
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