Climate Science, Migration, Ethics, and Risk Management

UU-UNO Spring Seminar: Migration and Climate Panel, 2012

Jan W. Dash, PhD

Climate Initiative Chair, Unitarian Universalist UN Office Visiting Research Scholar, Fordham University Adjunct Professor, Courant Institute, NYU
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Outline
Climate

Science: Whats the problem? Climate Impacts: Migration / Immigration Climate Ethics: Why should we act? Climate Risk Management: Action! Appendix: What about the Contrarians?

Climate Science Background

Science = Web of evidence from different sources

Observations Physics, models, theory

Science is not Mathematics

You never prove anything in science Always uncertainties (maybe small, maybe big) However can be quite (very) sure about some things Once convinced, they are skeptical about contrarian claims Informs us about risk from climate change Input into what should we do

Scientists are skeptics

Why should we care about climate science?

Climate Model = Black line. Consistent with temperature data (colored lines). Uncertainties (shaded). 1980-2011

Natural variation out (El Nios/La Nias, volcanoes, sun changes) => global warming exists, due to humans

Global temperature: Last 1,000 years + next 90 years (IPCC, 2007; K. Hayhoe)

K. Heyhoe 6

Climate Impacts - really serious

Climate amplifies naturally produced disasters Impacts are being observed right now Faint rumbling of the impacts on our descendants if Business as Usual BAU behavior continues Impacts of climate:

INCREASED: Mass migration / immigration INCREASED: Food shortages, Water shortages, Disease, Species extinction, Extreme weather, ETC US Navy sea level rise scenario: 6 feet this century Breakdown of financial, economic systems?

Why bad? Perturb earth like dropping your watch

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Climate and Migration / Immigration

Climate

impacts = increasing factor Mexico: millions to US due to climate

Climate change decreasing crop yields PNAS Report 2010: Feng et al
More

millions will migrate due to climate Defense Review

Asian Development Bank report

U.S. Quadrennial

Climate Migration: U.S. National Security Risk

Conference: Climate Change, Migration, and Security - Washington DC, April 18

The intersection of climate change, human migration, and conflict presents a unique challenge for U.S. foreign policy in the 21st Century. These three factors are already beginning to combine in ways that undermine traditional understandings of national security and demand a rethink of traditional divisions between diplomacy, defense, and economic, social and environmental development policy abroad. Addressing this nexusof climate change, migration, and conflictwill be a core challenge of this century. As the number of migrants, driven in part by environmental degradation, continues to grow, the adaptive capacity of states worldwide will be strained, and new security gaps will appear in which non-state actors have the potential to flourish.
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Related reports: only one week

China government report on climate impacts (1/18/12)

Global warming threatens China's march to prosperity by cutting crops, shrinking rivers and unleashing more droughts and floods [Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change]

Oceans, climate change, and oxygen (2/11/12)

Global warming could lead to more of the worlds oceans becoming dead zones [Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich]

Los Angeles and climate change (2/23/12)

Rising sea levels will increase the likelihood of coastal flooding; rising temperatures will threaten the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada mountains, which provides about a third of the drinking water (US Geological Survey)

Mayan civilization collapse, climate change (2/24/12)

likely due to a relatively mild drought, much like the drier conditions expected in the coming years due to climate change [Yucatan Center for Scientific Research, Mexico and U. Southampton, Britain]

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Climate Ethics: Why should we act?

Climate

justice: Poor have the smallest effect on climate are hurt the worst However, no place to hide
U.S. will be hit very hard if we do not act
Intergenerational

ethics: Our descendants

More humane and cheaper for preventive action now rather than disaster adaptive action in future
No

long-term solution to any problem without dealing with climate: Interconnected

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Climate Risk Management = Action

Recognition

of risks: 2 types

Average risk: low impact Tail risk: high impact

Rational

response to risk - lower it! The best way to think about the response to climate is RISK MANAGEMENT
If we do not act, todays tail climate impacts will become tomorrows average climate impacts
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Climate Action no silver bullet. Progress exists, we need MORE

Action

by individuals GET INVOLVED

Write letters to the editor influential! Support renewables, efficiency, conservation

Action

by organizations - NGOs, Universities, Faith-based, Corporations

Citizens Climate Lobby

Action

by governments all levels: City, State, Regional, National, International

(Rep. Starks): Carbon Tax/Fee + Dividend
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Resources
IPCC

2007 Reports Science website

Reliable, download free

Skeptical Real

One-liners, refutation of fallacies

Climate website Mann new book

Professional climatologists technical / excellent

Prof. Michael

Read it great!

Climate Science Rapid Response Team

Reliable Scientific Information for Media
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UU-UNO Climate Portal

climate.uu-uno.org
We have a moral and ethical imperative to learn about climate change / global warming, and to act appropriately and decisively.

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Bottom Line
Human

activities are causing the global warming trend of climate change Climate Impacts are observed now and will become far worse if BAU prevails

Immigration / Migration Many other impacts overwhelmingly bad

Its

not too late to prevent worst impacts You can help Thank you
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THANK YOU FOR HELPING

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Appendix about the Climate Contrarians preventing action

Disinformation, mostly out-of-field non-experts

Example: Christopher Monckton
No science degree. No position. No publications. Gives talks, Congressional testimony. Full of ERRORS Analogy: Actor misusing medical terms unless youre a doctor you cant tell

Cranks exist in every scientific field, are almost always wrong, are not Galileo, are justly ignored.
Mavericks, charlatans posing as climate scientists [as Prof. Kerry Emanuel of MIT calls them] In climate they get publicity, have big influence Right wing media climate disinformation (Fox, WSJ )
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Climate science expertise - counts

Expertise

needs to be in the right field.

Example: You dont want your cardiologist or chiropractor - to give a cancer diagnosis Not the right expertise
Who

has climate science expertise?

Filter #1 = PhD in science Filter #2 = Science faculty/research position at a recognized university, laboratory Filter #3 = Substantial recent publications on climate in peer-reviewed science journals
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What do Contrarians Say?

We

Have No Climate Risk. Mix of:

1. 2. 3. 4.

Deny global warming Deny human influence on climate Minimize climate impact risk Exaggerate cost of climate action mitigation

Oppose

climate action Create doubt = tobacco tactic (Oreskes) Science cant prove so we shouldnt act Ignorance or neglect of risk management
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