Prepared for the Bipartisan Policy Center | March 2012
DemographicChallenges andOpportunities for U.S. Housing Markets
Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets | 2
ABOUT BPCFounded in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker,Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell, Bipartisan Policy Center(BPC) is a non-profit organization that drives principled solutionsthrough rigorous analysis, reasoned negotiation and respectfuldialogue. With projects in multiple issue areas, BPC combinespolitically balanced policymaking with strong, proactive advocacyand outreach.AUTHORSRolf Pendall and Lesley Freiman, The Urban InstituteDowell Myers, University of Southern CaliforniaSelma Hepp, Manager, Public Policy and Homeownership Research,National Association of Realtors
®
REVIEWERSEric Belsky, Joint Center Housing StudiesPeter Burley, REALTOR® University Research CenterPaul Bishop, Vice President, Research, National Association of Realtors®Margery Austin Turner, The Urban InstituteDISCLAIMERThis paper was prepared by consultants for the Bipartisan PolicyCenter as background for the Housing Commission. The data,information and projections in this paper are those of the consultantsand not of the Bipartisan Policy Center or members of the HousingCommission. Funding for this paper was provided by the John D. andCatherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets | 3
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................5
Growth in the 65+ population will create new demandsfor affordable, accessible housing...................................................................5
Seniors will contribute increasingly to housing supply.......................................5
Echo Boomers represent a long-term opportunity for housing-marketrecovery, but are struggling in the economic crisis...........................................5
Over the next two decades, the U.S. housing market willdepend on Echo Boomers..............................................................................5
Rental housing demand is likely to climb in coming years..................................6
Black and Hispanic Americans have suffered significant setbacksin homeownership........................................................................................6
Key Trends and Challenges....................................7
The growing senior population.......................................................................7
Growth in the 65+ population will create new demandsfor affordable, accessible housing............................................................7
Seniors will contribute increasingly to housing supply...............................10
The maturing of the Echo Boom...................................................................12
Echo Boomers: long-term opportunity, short-term setbacks......................12
The next two decades in housing markets depend on the Echo Boom.........14
Echo Boomers will continue to fuel demand for rental housing...................19
Racial dimensions of the housing crisis..........................................................19
Concluding thoughts: housing policy matters.................................................21Appendix A. Assumptions and methods: household andhomeownership projections.........................................................................23
Appendix B. Owners, renters, and total households by age group,three scenarios, 1990 to 2030.....................................................................25
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Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets
This paper summarizes six key demographic trends against the backdrop of the U.S. housing crisis, which has thrown markets into disarray and disrupted long-term trends in demography and housing demand.
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