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Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets

Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets

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This paper summarizes six key demographic trends against the backdrop of the U.S. housing crisis, which has thrown markets into disarray and disrupted long-term trends in demography and housing demand.
This paper summarizes six key demographic trends against the backdrop of the U.S. housing crisis, which has thrown markets into disarray and disrupted long-term trends in demography and housing demand.

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Published by: Bipartisan Policy Center on Apr 19, 2012
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Prepared for the Bipartisan Policy Center | March 2012
Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets
 
Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets | 2
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ABOUT BPC Founded in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell, Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) is a non-profit organization that drives principled solutions through rigorous analysis, reasoned negotiation and respectful dialogue. With projects in multiple issue areas, BPC combines politically balanced policymaking with strong, proactive advocacy and outreach. AUTHORS Rolf Pendall and Lesley Freiman, The Urban Institute Dowell Myers, University of Southern California Selma Hepp, Manager, Public Policy and Homeownership Research, National Association of Realtors
®
REVIEWERS Eric Belsky, Joint Center Housing Studies Peter Burley, REALTOR® University Research Center Paul Bishop, Vice President, Research, National Association of Realtors® Margery Austin Turner, The Urban Institute DISCLAIMER This paper was prepared by consultants for the Bipartisan Policy Center as background for the Housing Commission. The data, information and projections in this paper are those of the consultants and not of the Bipartisan Policy Center or members of the Housing Commission. Funding for this paper was provided by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
 
Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets | 3
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................5
 
Growth in the 65+ population will create new demands for affordable, accessible housing...................................................................5
 
Seniors will contribute increasingly to housing supply.......................................5
 
Echo Boomers represent a long-term opportunity for housing-market recovery, but are struggling in the economic crisis...........................................5
 
Over the next two decades, the U.S. housing market will depend on Echo Boomers..............................................................................5
 
Rental housing demand is likely to climb in coming years..................................6
 
Black and Hispanic Americans have suffered significant setbacks in homeownership........................................................................................6
 
Key Trends and Challenges....................................7
 
The growing senior population.......................................................................7
 
Growth in the 65+ population will create new demands for affordable, accessible housing............................................................7
 
Seniors will contribute increasingly to housing supply...............................10
 
The maturing of the Echo Boom...................................................................12
 
Echo Boomers: long-term opportunity, short-term setbacks......................12
 
The next two decades in housing markets depend on the Echo Boom.........14
 
Echo Boomers will continue to fuel demand for rental housing...................19
 
Racial dimensions of the housing crisis..........................................................19
 
Concluding thoughts: housing policy matters.................................................21 Appendix A. Assumptions and methods: household and homeownership projections.........................................................................23
 
Appendix B. Owners, renters, and total households by age group, three scenarios, 1990 to 2030.....................................................................25
 

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