Professional Documents
Culture Documents
March 2012
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Contents
Introduction
NSW Business Chamber About the Survey Survey Frequency and Participation
3
3 3 3
Business Conditions Survey Index Executive Summary Economic Commentary Business Conditions
NSW Economy Business Conditions Sales Revenue Export Sales Profits Wage Rates Number of Employees Hours Worked by Employees Capacity Utilisation Investment In Buildings, Technology, Plant and Equipment Ease of Access to Finance Cost of Finance
4 5 5 6
6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11
Skills
Skills Shortage: Regional Breakdown Skills Shortage: Industry Breakdown
12
12 12
14 15
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Introduction
NSW Business Chamber
NSW Business Chamber is one of Australias largest business support groups, helping over 35,000 businesses each year. Independent and non-government, NSW Business Chamber represents the needs of business at local, state and federal level, lobbying governments and authorities to create a better environment to do business in.
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Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Change Mar-12
-14.2 -16.5 -15.9 -25.7 7.8 -12.3 -8.1 -11.7 -3.0 -25.5 8.1 11.9 17 -6.4 -0.4 22 4.5 13.1 11.4 3.2 -13.1 26.8 6.2 2.4 -10.8 -8.6 28.6 10.1 8.3 14.1 5.2 -19.4 39.7 -5.9 -6.3 -11.9 -14.3 45.4 3.6 7 2.8 -2.5 -18.3 38 0.8 -1.8 -12.8 -13.3 36.2 9.9 14.0 6.1 4.1 -13.5 30.1 -0.7 -3.8 -6.4 -9.4 28.8 7.2 13.9 9.6 5.5 -13.3 26.7 -14.6 -14.1 8.2 -24.3 25.7 0.9 5.6 4.1 -1.4 -16.2 20.5 -15.0 -8.7 -25.6 -20.8 31.4 -0.4 5.2 2.4 -7.6 -20.9 12.8 -8.0 -4.6 -13.7 -15.1 24.0 2.8 12.5 7.4 -3.0 -20.0 7.0
-17.5 -16.6 -20.8 -28.7 20.5 -0.5 1.4 2.2 -9.9 -23.5 27.8
Expected
Business Conditions Sales Revenue Export Sales Profits Wage Rates Number of Employees Hours Worked by Employees Capacity Utilisation Investment in BTP&E Ease of Access to Finance Cost of Finance
Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Change Mar-12
6.9 8.8 -7.1 2.4 19.4 -1.9 3.7 8.3 -11.3 -16.1 20.3 28.2 35.4 -3.3 24.8 24 10.9 17.3 18.3 1.7 -4.2 34.7 28.6 36.3 -1.3 19 30.5 17.9 19.4 23.7 8.3 -10.5 41.2 6.7 15.6 -7.2 5.1 40.1 10 10.3 14.4 -1.9 -11.7 27 19.0 29.0 -4.0 15.0 27.0 10.0 20.0 19.0 5.0 -11.5 25.0 22.7 30.5 0.9 21.8 27.5 12.6 14.7 21.5 4.9 -5.0 20.4 5.7 12.7 15.2 3.9 37.1 5.4 9.4 14.1 -1.9 -8 20.4 6.7 17.4 -4.4 6.5 20.8 7.4 12.5 13.2 -2.3 -11.1 7.0 -8.4 -3.9 -9.9 -8.0 19.4 1.4 3.6 2.6 -5.2 -12.1 3.0
-6.3 2.4 -8.8 -7.0 17.8 -0.2 4.4 8.9 -6.1 -17.2 22.2
Business Conditions Survey Index, April 2009 to March 2012, (%Up-%Down). Graphical representation of the index can be found in Appendix III. For March 2009 results refer to previous report.
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Executive Summary
Business conditions weakened further in the March quarter, and on some indicators have reached new lows, eclipsing the previous low of April 2009. Overall business conditions, sales revenue, exports, profits, employee numbers and hours, capacity utilisation, investment and access to finance all fell relative to the December quarter. Businesses continue to face significant challenges, with the strong Australian dollar, weak consumer confidence and the carbon tax all cited as key concerns. The ongoing economic weakness has seen the proportion of businesses reporting skill shortage pressures decline to 37%, from 40% in December 2011 and 42% in September 2011. However, skills shortages remain pronounced in the construction (54%), health care and social assistance (49%), and manufacturing (45%) sectors. Given the ongoing weakness in the economy, it is disappointing that the Reserve Bank has not made any further reductions to the cash rate since December, particularly given that all major lenders have increased their interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank since this time. Our members reported a sharp increase in actual and expected cost of funds during the March quarter, with concerns about this issue now at their highest level since the end of 2010. While expectations about future business conditions improved marginally over the last quarter, they remain relatively weak and the broad based recovery in economic conditions in NSW appears to remain elusive. Against this backdrop, it is disappointing that the Government remains intent on introducing the worlds biggest carbon tax from 1 July. Electricity bills for small businesses will increase dramatically under the tax, further increasing the cost of doing business in Australia. The carbon tax will inevitably impact on business confidence in NSW and simply compound the many challenges that businesses are already facing in making ends meet. The one silver lining for businesses appears to be that wage pressures have eased over the past six months. To the extent that this easing also flows into weaker inflation, it will provide the Reserve Bank with greater scope to reduce interest rates going forward.
Economic Commentary
James McIntyre, Senior Economist, Commonwealth Bank Australia
The most recent reading from the NSW Business Chamber Commonwealth Bank Business Conditions Survey indicates the difficulties faced across different regions in Australias patchwork economy. Business conditions, and confidence in the economic outlook, both declined in the latest survey. Whilst the Australian economy looks to be posting trend growth overall, courtesy of booming demand in the mining regions, conditions in NSW (along with Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia) remain subdued. NSW business conditions, sales, profits, labour demand and business investment have all declined since the last survey. However, this does not mean that the RBAs rate cuts in November and December have had no effect. What can never really be measured with any certainty in economics is the counter-factual. How bad conditions in NSW would have been without the RBAs last two cuts is unknown. A further rate cut was expected in February, but was not delivered. Expectations are primed for a cut at the May meeting. Surveyed expectations from NSW firms suggest that a further cut in rates may be necessary. We agree. Whilst expectations for business conditions in the quarter ahead did lift, they remain negative, as do profit expectations, hiring intentions and investment outlooks. The labour market outlook in particular is key to the outlook for the NSW economy overall, and interest rates. The ABS survey of job vacancies for NSW rose over the three months to February 2012. And jobs growth in NSW accounted for 19,000 out of the bumper 44,000 jobs added in March 2012. Confidence is key to whether robust job vacancies translate into further actual hires. If they dont, and confidence in the non-mining economy remains in the doldrums, then the unemployment rate is likely to rise. Further rate cuts from the RBA would soon follow. Thats because whilst the mining boom means the non-mining parts of the economy do need to be a bit softer in order to make room for surging mining-related demand, there is little appetite from the RBA for the non-mining sector to be so weak that the economy overall fails to meet its growth potential.
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Business Conditions
NSW Economy
Businesses indicate that the NSW Economy has weakened over the last three months.
Much Stronger
Current Expected 1.4% 1.5%
Somewhat Stronger
17.9% 21.5%
Somewhat Weaker
30.6% 24.4%
Much Weaker
7.8%
6.8%
Business Conditions
Business conditions have declined for 34.7% of NSW businesses. The same decline is expected over the next three months.
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35
Expected
Current Apr-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 17.2% 21.2%
Same
48.1% 5.3%
Down
34.7%
27.5%
Sales Revenue
Sales revenue has decreased for 43.5% of businesses but the outlook for the next three months is much more optimistic.
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25
Expected Current
Apr-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 27.0% 33.8%
Same
29.5% 34.8%
Down
43.5% 31.4%
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Export Sales
Export sales have decreased for 40.7% of businesses and 30.0% expect a decrease In the next three months.
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30
Expected
Current Apr-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 19.9% 21.2%
Same
39.4% 48.8%
Down
40.7% 30.0%
* Since June 2011, N/A was included as a response option. This may have had a slight impact on the results.
Profits
Profits have decreased for nearly one-half (48.5%) of businesses in the last three months.
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35
Expected
Current
Apr-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 19.8% 28.9%
Same
31.7% 35.1%
Down
48.5%
35.9%
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Wage Rates
The growth of wage rates has decelerated in the last quarter. The businesses expect this to continue over the next three months.
50 40 30 20 Expected 10 0 Apr-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Current
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 25.2% 21.5%
Same
70.0% 74.8%
Down
4.8%
3.7%
Number of Employees
Businesses are decreasing staff numbers. In December 2011, 13.8% decreased employee numbers and in March 2012, 16.3% decreased employee numbers.
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Apr-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Current Expected
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 15.8% 13.7%
Same
67.8% 72.4%
Down
16.3%
13.9%
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Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 21.3% 21.1%
Same
58.8% 62.1%
Down
19.9%
16.8%
Capacity Utilisation
The intensity of the use of business resources in the last quarter has increased for 25.5% of businesses.
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Apr-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Current Expected
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 25.5% 25.1%
Same
51.1% 58.8%
Down
23.4%
16.1%
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Up
March quarter outcomes 19.3% 18.7%
Same
51.5% 56.4%
Down
29.2%
24.8%
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 4.1% 3.4%
Same
68.3% 76.0%
Down
27.6%
20.6%
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Cost of Finance
Businesses have found the cost of finance high over the last three months, 34.9% report an increase in cost of finance.
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Apr-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Expected Current
Up
March quarter outcomes June quarter expectations 34.9% 26.9%
Same
58.0% 68.5%
Down
7.1%
4.6%
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Skills
The proportion of businesses reporting skill shortage pressures has dropped again this quarter to 36.9%, compared to 40.0% in December 2011 and 42.3% in September 2011. The regional breakdown again shows that businesses in the Hunter region continue to experience more pressure than other parts of NSW, with 47.9% reporting skill shortages. However, this represents a 6.1% reduction from December 2011 and 12.1% reduction from September 2011. Skills shortages have been reported across major industry sectors with those in the construction industry reporting the highest level of skill shortages, at 54.3%, down from 59.3% in December 2011. Other sectors reporting high levels of skill shortage pressures include health care and social assistance (49.3%), manufacturing (44.5%), accommodation and food services (38.5%), and education and training (36.4%). Some 64.7% of NSW businesses have indicated they would not currently be willing to employ an apprentice or trainee. The overwhelming majority of these businesses, 69.9%, suggested they have no current positions. This may be a reflection of difficult economic conditions across various industry sectors, particularly the manufacturing sector.
Yes
36.6% 47.9% 26.5% 27.1% 42.1%
No
63.4% 52.1% 73.5%
72.9%
57.9%
Yes
25.4% 38.4% 47.5% 50.7% 48.7%
No
76.6% 61.6% 52.5% 49.3% 51.3%
Yes
35.4% 70.0% 44.5% 36.7% 32.3% 41.2%
No
64.6% 30.0% 55.5% 63.3% 67.7% 58.8%
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Industry
Construction Transport, Postal and Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Administrative and Support Services Arts and Recreation Services Other Services
Yes
54.3% 47.1% 34.9% 80.0% 36.4% 49.3% 38.5% 30.8% 20.6% 35.3% 26.8% 26.3% 39.5%
No
45.7% 52.9% 65.1% 20.0% 63.6% 50.7% 61.5% 69.2% 79.4% 64.7% 73.2% 73.7% 60.5%
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Number of Respondents
370 73 68 222 421
Percentage
32.1% 6.3% 5.9%
19.2%
36.5%
Percentage
33.8% 37.7% 12.1% 6.3% 10.1%
Respondents by Industry
Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Construction Transport, Postal and Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Administrative and Support Services Arts and Recreation Services Other Services
Percentage
4.3% 1.5% 13.3% 6.3% 13.2% 1.2% 5.7% 2.4% 3.0% 0.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.6% 7.4% 2.4% 8.3% 2.8% 2.6% 11.3%
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Much Stronger
1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7%
Somewhat Stronger
18.6% 23.3% 16.2% 14.4% 18.3%
Somewhat Weaker
28.1% 21.9% 33.8% 35.1% 31.4%
Much Weaker
7.3% 5.5% 5.9%
7.2%
9.3%
Much Stronger
1.6% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1%
Somewhat Stronger
24.6% 16.4% 22.1% 18.9% 20.9%
Somewhat Weaker
25.4% 16.4% 23.5% 31.1% 21.6%
Much Weaker
5.4% 4.1% 5.9%
7.2%
8.6%
Up
18.3% 18.1% 16.7% 16.8% 16.4%
Same
45.2% 48.6% 53.0% 45.9% 51.0%
Down
36.5% 33.3% 30.3%
37.3%
32.6%
Up
23.1% 36.1% 19.7% 18.9% 18.8%
Same
50.3% 36.1% 36.1% 47.7% 55.7%
Down
26.6% 27.8% 24.2%
33.3%
25.5%
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Up
28.2% 36.6% 35.4% 19.6% 26.8%
Same
26.5% 23.9% 30.8% 30.4% 32.5%
Down
45.4% 39.4% 33.8%
50.0%
40.8%
Up
35.8% 46.5% 39.4% 28.0% 32.0%
Same
32.1% 31.0% 31.8% 36.4% 37.5%
Down
32.1% 22.5% 28.8%
35.5%
30.5%
Up
21.0% 6.7% 25.0% 17.5% 22.0%
Same
37.1% 60.0% 25.0% 40.0% 40.7%
Down
41.9% 33.3% 50.0%
42.5%
37.3%
Up
23.4% 20.0% 30.8% 11.4% 22.4%
Same
45.9% 66.7% 30.8% 52.3% 50.7%
Down
30.6% 13.3% 38.5%
36.4%
26.9%
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Profits Current
Region
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Northern Rivers Rest of NSW
Up
20.5% 24.3% 26.2% 15.4% 19.6%
Same
29.3% 40.0% 30.8% 29.4% 33.7%
Down
50.1% 35.7% 43.1%
55.1%
46.7%
Profits Expected
Region
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Northern Rivers Rest of NSW
Up
31.5% 42.0% 32.3% 23.6% 26.7%
Same
32.3% 34.8% 29.2% 35.2% 38.6%
Down
36.2% 23.2% 38.5%
41.2%
34.7%
Up
25.9% 29.0% 28.8% 19.6% 26.1%
Same
68.5% 68.1% 65.2% 73.7% 70.6%
Down
5.5% 2.9% 6.1%
6.1%
3.3%
Up
21.3% 22.9% 21.2% 16.8% 23.7%
Same
75.3% 74.3% 74.2% 79.6% 72.3%
Down
3.4% 2.9% 4.5%
3.6%
4.0%
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Up
16.8% 23.9% 22.1% 9.5% 15.6%
Same
66.2% 60.6% 67.6% 72.5% 68.3%
Down
17.0% 15.5% 10.3%
18.0%
16.1%
Up
13.6% 25.4% 16.4% 11.8% 12.2%
Same
71.3% 57.7% 70.1% 73.9% 75.6%
Down
15.0% 16.9% 13.4%
14.3%
12.2%
Up
21.5% 23.9% 17.9% 24.0% 19.9%
Same
60.2% 59.2% 68.7% 52.9% 58.8%
Down
18.2% 16.9% 13.4%
23.1%
21.3%
Up
20.4% 25.0% 25.0% 18.6% 21.7%
Same
62.4% 56.9% 60.3% 62.4% 62.9%
Down
17.1% 18.1% 14.7%
19.0%
15.4%
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Up
26.0% 27.8% 33.3% 23.3% 24.6%
Same
47.8% 54.2% 39.4% 53.9% 54.1%
Down
26.2% 18.1% 27.3%
22.8%
21.3%
Up
25.9% 35.2% 36.4% 16.3% 25.1%
Same
54.9% 53.5% 43.9% 66.0% 61.9%
Down
19.2% 11.3% 19.7%
17.7%
12.9%
Up
21.5% 33.8% 20.7% 15.3% 16.6%
Same
51.1% 46.2% 48.3% 52.5% 52.8%
Down
27.4% 20.0% 31.0%
32.2%
30.6%
Up
23.3% 24.6% 20.7% 14.6% 15.5%
Same
53.0% 52.3% 50.0% 57.9% 60.5%
Down
23.7% 23.1% 29.3%
27.9%
24.1%
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Up
3.3% 3.7% 0.0% 6.9% 4.0%
Same
67.8% 81.5% 63.0% 63.1% 69.8%
Down
28.9% 14.8% 36.2%
30.0%
26.2%
Up
5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.7%
Same
72.7% 84.6% 69.4% 77.2% 77.9%
Down
22.1% 15.4% 30.6%
21.0%
18.4%
Up
36.2% 29.1% 38.3% 38.9% 32.2%
Same
58.2% 65.5% 53.2% 53.9% 59.5%
Down
5.7% 5.5% 8.5%
7.2%
8.3%
Up
30.7% 11.1% 20.8% 27.7% 26.6%
Same
65.0% 77.8% 70.8% 69.3% 69.2%
Down
4.3% 11.1% 8.3%
3.0%
4.1%
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NSW Business Chamber 140 Arthur Street North Sydney NSW 2060
ABN 63 000 014 504
Locked Bag 938, North Sydney NSW 2059 DX 10541 North Sydney t 13 26 96 f 1300 655 277 e business.hotline@nswbc.com.au
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