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The Dow Jones Industrial Average has become flawed (for wave counting purposes) over the years as it is an average, and not a true index of stocks. It is for this reason that we dont model the DJIA. However, the DJIA has a much longer history than the S&P 500 and is useful in getting our bearings on the longer term wave model.
-B-D-
1966 <I>
-V(X)
-I-X- II -Y-W-
1929 <X>
-B-D-I-
- IV -
- II -E-
<Y>
-C-
II
The Supercyle Wave II, which began in 1860, concluded in 1949.
-A-
This continues to be the much longer term wave count. In technical parlance, we are waiting on the Intermediate (B) Wave of Cycle -C- to conclude. We favor the idea of Triangle Cycle -C- because Wave (A) was an elongated flat, something normally witnessed within a triangle.
9/1/2000
-B-
(E)
-C-A(A) (C)
Baby Boomers will have fully exited the Stock Market by this point
This longer term count remains favored. Nothing in the market has altered this view. The higher this (B) wave travels, though, it becomes more likely the (C) Wave will not be that powerful of a move. The (B) wave is telling a tale of underlying strength. So, the next corrective move lower should cause the S&P 500 to break below 1,000 but its unlikely we will see action below 900. This next (C) will be at least a TWO YEAR grind lower.
9/1/2000
-B(B)
z y
(D)
x (E)
(C)
-C-
-A(A)
This primary count from the March 09 lows remains unchanged. The w-x-y-x-z structure still fits best. I know that Glenn Neely is labeling that move a triangle and I cant dispute that view yet. They both are five corrective moves connected together. I dont think its a triangle because the first retracement hit an exact Fibonnaci percentage. In a triangle, the b-wave should NOT retrace an exact Fibbonacci.
(B)
z y b d b a e
w
d c a c e
x
e?
(A)
(B)
y 1371 z? 1422
w 1150
1202 x
1040 x
NOTES: The first x corrected 22.8%, very close to the first Fibonacci retrace of 23.6%. The second x corrected 51%, very close to a classic 50% retrace. Wave y was essentially 50.7% of w on a log scale, very close to 50%. If z concluded at 1422, it would be 60.8% of y on a log scale, very close to 61.8%
667 (A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Markets have a memory. 1440 stands out to me because there were some good battles around that level. The green arrows point out moments when the market couldnt close below 1440. The last red arrow is the real highlight as it was at that point the market started its collapse in earnest--falling without much in the way of a retracement. 1440 is also the 85% retrace of the entire decline from top to bottom. I dont think 85% is a particularly important retrace but I know some well known Ellioticians who do pay attention to that level.
e
h c f a d
1202
This is me yawning at this market. Once again the market stayed well within our first levels of resistance and support. Ive raised the first level of weekly support to 1386 as this feels like a market that must keep maintaining even minor support points. 1340 is near the 38.2% retrace and aligns well with a KEY market level.
c f
h?
d a
1202
Its still possible that this market makes another nominal high, but the recent decline from 1422 looks severe enough to make that idea a long shot. 1338 looks like an extremely important technical level for the bulls to maintain. A break below 1338 would look very ominous. As it stands, there is a strong probability that weve seen the highs for 2012.
[1] [a]
[4] [d]
[.2] [c]
[.4] [f]
[a]
[e]
PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM
Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro
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